Prospect Info: Karl Henriksson, C, 2nd round, 58th overall, 2019

[nyr2k2]

Yes, it isn't a major league/minor league system. The top teams in Allsvenskan are on par with the bottom teams in the SHL.

And the bad Allsvenskan teams are on par with good HockeyEttan teams, which is a bad league (relatively speaking). That's always how it is in open leagues though, with promotion and relegation.

Allsvenskan is way better than Mestis, and while I haven't watched a lot of VHL hockey in my life, what I have seen makes me think Allsvenskan is quite a bit better than that, as well. I think Allsvenskan attracts more foreign-born players and North American pros than most of the other leagues. Allsvenskan is probably pretty even with other top-tier leagues like the Czech Extraliga, Slovak Extraliga, DEL, NLA, etc. Tough to say for sure but I think they're all pretty close.

Anyway, agreed with @eco's bones that there's not nearly the chasm between SHL and Allsvenskan as between the NHL and AHL.

 

[cwede]

I mean, it's a long shot for a late 2nd round pick to make the NHL as is. And his development hasn't been anything special. Even being as generous as possible you have to say he's been a disappointment so far even for a #58 pick. How you project his current trajectory to the NHL I have no idea.

He's a pretty small guy who has yet to show offense in the Allsvenskan or Elitserien and that's a red flag.

But sure, I hope he turns well but a player picked at #58 will need to have a pretty rapid trajectory to project to the NHL and Henriksson's trajectory has been a disappointment in terms of tracking to the NHL.

I get your thinking, to draw conclusions, you need to rely on the latest data.
I dont follow prospects that way. I dont track their NHL-ness month to month.
NHL players take a variety of paths.
So many guys, who would meet many criteria as much more likely to make it, don't get there.
KH has impressed scouts and evaluators and coaches, and continues to play and work, so he is becoming what he will become.
I can wait til he's 24 to have stronger opinions of his career arc.
Not saying anyone is right or wrong, but i do think folks waste a lot of cycles developing projections of guys way too early.
I dont believe young players need to continually justify being picked , i believe being drafted gives the kids confidence, and affords them a few years to reach their potential.
I prefer to watch from a distance, let the kids develop, let myself enjoy their promise.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

And the bad Allsvenskan teams are on par with good HockeyEttan teams, which is a bad league (relatively speaking). That's always how it is in open leagues though, with promotion and relegation.

Allsvenskan is way better than Mestis, and while I haven't watched a lot of VHL hockey in my life, what I have seen makes me think Allsvenskan is quite a bit better than that, as well. I think Allsvenskan attracts more foreign-born players and North American pros than most of the other leagues. Allsvenskan is probably pretty even with other top-tier leagues like the Czech Extraliga, Slovak Extraliga, DEL, NLA, etc. Tough to say for sure but I think they're all pretty close.

Anyway, agreed with @eco's bones that there's not nearly the chasm between SHL and Allsvenskan as between the NHL and AHL.

Yeah, and we have been over this in the past, but the "academy system" they have there leads to really good young players sometimes playing in Allsvenskan simply because the team they grew up with just plays there. MODO now plays Allsvenskan but for years they were in the SHL. Promotion/relegation leagues are always a bit more stretched out quality-wise.

I think Allsvenskan is on par with DEL, Tipos and EBEL (I cannot get used to the new name) and slightly below ELH and NL. Definitely ahead of Mestis and VHL which are just feeder leagues.

Allsvenskan has attacted a lot of young talent this year due to their ability to offer short-term loans which hopefully helps the league a bit. When Henriksson went there last year, like I said earlier, it was his first real taste of pro hockey. Being part of a pro team, pro league, practice daily. In his own words:

"It was my first time playing real pro hockey, so it was a bit of an adjustment both on and of the ice."

I think Henriksson would benefit from playing on a different team. One that needs a bit more center depth, where he can play on the 2nd or 3rd line driving the play. I doubt his team is willing to part ways with him but the Rangers could always loan him to a different team once he signs his ELC (if his SHL contract expires before that of course).

He turns 20 in February. His coach has been quite positive about him and he missed a few games due to illness. I think it's too early to write him off, but at the same time would love to see a bit more from him

 

[Ola]

And the bad Allsvenskan teams are on par with good HockeyEttan teams, which is a bad league (relatively speaking). That's always how it is in open leagues though, with promotion and relegation.

Allsvenskan is way better than Mestis, and while I haven't watched a lot of VHL hockey in my life, what I have seen makes me think Allsvenskan is quite a bit better than that, as well. I think Allsvenskan attracts more foreign-born players and North American pros than most of the other leagues. Allsvenskan is probably pretty even with other top-tier leagues like the Czech Extraliga, Slovak Extraliga, DEL, NLA, etc. Tough to say for sure but I think they're all pretty close.

Anyway, agreed with @eco's bones that there's not nearly the chasm between SHL and Allsvenskan as between the NHL and AHL.

Yeah, and I also think that what has — by far — the biggest impact on how “easy” it is to play in a league isn’t the quality of players in the league, but how well run the organizations are.

Most aspects of the game isn’t that hard and doesn’t require a ton of natural talent. It’s not really that big of a difference between playing against the absolute best or sub ECHL talents in many situations of a game. We get proof of that in international tournaments multiple times per year.

Even in Allsvenskan, any player will need to be a part of a dominating environment to dominate on the ice. I’ve seen prime Kopitar play in that league live two times and a few more times on TV, I know exactly what that world class elite ability can accomplish in Allsvenskan. Mora lost many games with him and in many games he wasn’t a huge factor.

My point with all this is just, even at that level, there is no direct link between ability and production like in juniors. If someone has 2 or 4 or 10 pts in 20 games, it doesn’t really say much to me. It’s not good in any event. At the same time, someone could easily have 15 goals in 20 games and it wouldn’t have to say a ton either if that someone was say a RHS with a good shot playing top PP minutes for a good team.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Never had high expectations for him and still don’t. If he can make it that’s nice but not holding my breath

 

[The Sweetness]

I get your thinking, to draw conclusions, you need to rely on the latest data.
I dont follow prospects that way. I dont track their NHL-ness month to month.
NHL players take a variety of paths.
So many guys, who would meet many criteria as much more likely to make it, don't get there.
KH has impressed scouts and evaluators and coaches, and continues to play and work, so he is becoming what he will become.
I can wait til he's 24 to have stronger opinions of his career arc.
Not saying anyone is right or wrong, but i do think folks waste a lot of cycles developing projections of guys way too early.
I dont believe young players need to continually justify being picked , i believe being drafted gives the kids confidence, and affords them a few years to reach their potential.
I prefer to watch from a distance, let the kids develop, let myself enjoy their promise.

Yeah, that’s totally fair. And I also try to avoid being swayed by a prospect who has a hot period of games, a hot 1-2 months, etc as I’d like to think I’ve followed hockey enough to understand development is a marathon and players rarely improve at a steady rate.

I’m just stating my opinion on Henriksson atm. And sometimes on this board there is a tendency to justify prospects by ignoring picks who aren’t really developing as necessary. Because when we get down to it we are probably looking at around a 5% success rate or lower from a late 2nd/early 3rd pick so if a prospect doesn’t show in their first 2-3 years that they’ve taken some decent strides it’s realistically going to be so difficult to make the NHL.

You make good points though and my post is more just directed to the board in general than you. Thanks for a good discussion.

 

[cwede]

"Thanks for a good discussion." ditto

I have been rooting for the kids to make a difference forever, since Tkaczuk and Park made the team at 20, when I was in 8th grade

you just never really know,
if HFB was around in the '90's, who'da thunk Eric Boulton would rack up more career NHL games than Turcotte, Hickey, Ruotsalainen, Erixon, York, Korpikoski, ...
(although he does fit the conditions mentioned above of playing the depth F role

 

[Ola]

Never had high expectations for him and still don’t. If he can make it that’s nice but not holding my breath

Yeah, but I for sure wouldn’t be too down on his status as per today either. The kid is about to be — fingers crossed — a very prominent prospect at the WJCs. He played last year and did it well. He has pwned the junior league in Sweden when he played there last season. He would surely be a very big star in the CHL, a top player for Canada/US/Russia in the WJC if that was what his passport stated. He was our No 1 center in Traverse despite being just 18 and did perfectly OK no matter which match-up he got. Etc etc etc etc etc.

But that doesn’t mean that I think we can say, “don’t worry”, this kid will be a solid NHLer. If someone say, I want to see this kid take the next step, doing it in juniors is not what matters — I can’t object one bit against that. That is what it is about for sure.

I do think we will see Henriksson in the NHL eventually, 3-4 years from now. And we won’t be able to say that about many of his peers, it’s a tough league to get into. I think there is reason to be hopeful and I think we should be positive about his progress and accomplishments to date. If we are not positive about that we are setting the bar way to high. But at the same time — we must of course acknowledge that he got big challenges ahead of him still.

 

[The Sweetness]

Maybe this is a poor take on my part but Allsvenskan I don't think is that huge of a dropoff from the SHL as maybe someone might say the AHL is from the NHL. It's pretty much moving up from the junior ranks to either Allsvenskan or SHL that's the bigger deal.

There's a fairly significant gap between the Elitserien and Allsvenskan. I believe the Elitserien teams get around 20 times more TV revenue than Allsvenskan teams which provides a significant financial gap. It's certainly a big jump from junior hockey but at the same time you generally hope a forward can produce to a certain extent in the Allsvenskan in their D+1 season if you want them to be an NHL'er.

I'm a bit curious how posters who expect Henriksson to be an NHL'er to track over the next few seasons given 1) prospects who move from Sweden (assuming they aren't young - which won't be the case with Henriksson) need to show a pretty decent level of production in the Elitserien to even be considered for the NHL and that 2) even having a high level of production in the Elitserien after 4 years doesn't guarantee a player will play in the NHL.

I think a relevant question here would be to compare Henriksson's ceiling to Lias Andersson. Obviously Lias has other red flags but in terms of development do we realistically see him being better than Andersson? I'd personally be surprised if he ends up a better player than Andersson and I don't see Andersson ever having a career in the NHL.

That said, I think I'm beating a dead horse here with my posts as it's clear I'm less optimistic on Henriksson than others and that's fine.

 

[eco's bones]

There's a fairly significant gap between the Elitserien and Allsvenskan. I believe the Elitserien teams get around 20 times more TV revenue than Allsvenskan teams which provides a significant financial gap. It's certainly a big jump from junior hockey but at the same time you generally hope a forward can produce to a certain extent in the Allsvenskan in their D+1 season if you want them to be an NHL'er.

I'm a bit curious how posters who expect Henriksson to be an NHL'er to track over the next few seasons given 1) prospects who move from Sweden (assuming they aren't young - which won't be the case with Henriksson) need to show a pretty decent level of production in the Elitserien to even be considered for the NHL and that 2) even having a high level of production in the Elitserien after 4 years doesn't guarantee a player will play in the NHL.

I think a relevant question here would be to compare Henriksson's ceiling to Lias Andersson. Obviously Lias has other red flags but in terms of development do we realistically see him being better than Andersson? I'd personally be surprised if he ends up a better player than Andersson and I don't see Andersson ever having a career in the NHL.

That said, I think I'm beating a dead horse here with my posts as it's clear I'm less optimistic on Henriksson than others and that's fine.

FWIW I'm pretty much where NY2K2 is on Henriksson. Hopeful he'll become an NHL player but not convinced he will. If I remember right the one or two worst SHL teams get relegated every year and replaced by the one or two best Allsvenskan teams---pretty much like what happens in European football leagues. That as least most of SHL and Allsvenskan league teams are centered around and interactive with their communities--and that players belong to teams from youth leagues on. So that if you were brought up in the MODO program your rights go with it to MODO and the same for Frolunda, Lulea and all the rest. There is some player movement between teams but it explains why some players might never play in the SHL but still turn out to be NHL'ers.

Anyway I do have concerns about Henriksson's size and skating. To me he's definitely a guy who would fit better as a top 6 than a a bottom 6. For the forseeable future the Rangers have more than enough skill guys though--1. Panarin 2. Zibanejad 3. Lafreniere 4. Kakko and then 5. Kreider 6. Strome 7. Buchnevich 8. Chytil and 9. Kravtsov. We can afford to be patient with Henriksson. There is no rush and no need for a rush to judgement. And if he busts we'll be okay. He did look very good at Traverse last year.

 

[Ola]

There's a fairly significant gap between the Elitserien and Allsvenskan. I believe the Elitserien teams get around 20 times more TV revenue than Allsvenskan teams which provides a significant financial gap. It's certainly a big jump from junior hockey but at the same time you generally hope a forward can produce to a certain extent in the Allsvenskan in their D+1 season if you want them to be an NHL'er.

I'm a bit curious how posters who expect Henriksson to be an NHL'er to track over the next few seasons given 1) prospects who move from Sweden (assuming they aren't young - which won't be the case with Henriksson) need to show a pretty decent level of production in the Elitserien to even be considered for the NHL and that 2) even having a high level of production in the Elitserien after 4 years doesn't guarantee a player will play in the NHL.

I think a relevant question here would be to compare Henriksson's ceiling to Lias Andersson. Obviously Lias has other red flags but in terms of development do we realistically see him being better than Andersson? I'd personally be surprised if he ends up a better player than Andersson and I don't see Andersson ever having a career in the NHL.

That said, I think I'm beating a dead horse here with my posts as it's clear I'm less optimistic on Henriksson than others and that's fine.

I think many more or less agree with you and I am not sure if anyone is banking on Henriksson to make it, but more hoping for him.

I just have one objection, and that is any kind of portrait of him as not being on par with any kind of reasonable expectation on the development of a kid like him. Like, if we sit down and say 'so this is a kid we drafted in the 2nd round, how do we think he has developed so far? Better than expcted? Worse than expected?'

On the bottom line I don't disagree at all, but this also applies to most 1st round round picks outside the absolute top tier. Henriksson is doing really well in relation to his peers. I do think that you can come to the conclusion that he has been disappointing so far, but my point is that I certainly think that is a result of too much stats scouting.

 

[Kocur Dill]

Do some of you guys not realize these prospects use seasons to hoan and refine their overall game and weaknesses at the request of their parent club while ignoring their "obvious" strengths?

That explains why a guy is all the rage one year here and the next he is a wasted pick.

Stat lines are useless for prospects.

Just by virtue of being drafted over hundreds of other players in their age group around the world, scouts saw something they liked. Now, post draft. They are told to "this is what you need to work on to get a camp invite." Then, the discussion turns to "This is what you need to work on when you go back to carve out this role that we feel will be your NHL livelihood the next 10 years."

Hopefully, the kids jr, Euro, NCAA team plays ball. Hopefully that team has a good support cast of players and coaches/trainers.

It's not just cut and dry goals and assists progression.

The modern NHL is all role players 1-18 on the bench. Even the star players need to be able to do x,y,z to fill the role they do within the coaches scheme, and the General Managements 2,5,10 year plans to maintain their place on the team.

If Henriksson is projected by Gorts/Davidson/Drury to be a premier bottom 6 C for this team in say 3 to 5 years, they have already said "we know you can do this on offence at this level, but, realistically you should do this at the NHL level, so work on you off puck game and worry about offence down the road."

Yes, he dominated Offensive numbers on kids his own age. Now he's playing up and needs to learn how to play effectively vs men because these men are not on the same level as NHL men, and he won't see a lick of NHL ice if his off puck game is not +95% perfect so as to not be a liability while he learns the NHL game his first couple seasons.

As Cwede said. Dont judge these kids so soon. Their path to The Show is being coached constantly to turn their draft capital into real business gains for them and the team.

 

[nyr2k2]

Do some of you guys not realize these prospects use seasons to hoan and refine their overall game and weaknesses at the request of their parent club while ignoring their "obvious" strengths?

That explains why a guy is all the rage one year here and the next he is a wasted pick.

Stat lines are useless for prospects.

Just by virtue of being drafted over hundreds of other players in their age group around the world, scouts saw something they liked. Now, post draft. They are told to "this is what you need to work on to get a camp invite." Then, the discussion turns to "This is what you need to work on when you go back to carve out this role that we feel will be your NHL livelihood the next 10 years."

Hopefully, the kids jr, Euro, NCAA team plays ball. Hopefully that team has a good support cast of players and coaches/trainers.

It's not just cut and dry goals and assists progression.

The modern NHL is all role players 1-18 on the bench. Even the star players need to be able to do x,y,z to fill the role they do within the coaches scheme, and the General Managements 2,5,10 year plans to maintain their place on the team.

If Karlsson is projected by Gorts/Davidson/Drury to be a premier bottom 6 C for this team in say 3 to 5 years, they have already said "we know you can do this on offence at this level, but, realistically you should do this at the NHL level, so work on you off puck game and worry about offence down the road."

Yes, he dominated O numbers on kids his own age. Now he's playing up and needs to learn how to play effectively vs men because these men are not on the same level as NHL men, and he won't see a lick of NHL ice if his off puck game is not +95% perfect so as to not be a liability while he learns the NHL game his first couple seasons.

As Cwede said. Dont judge these kids so soon. Their path to The Show is being coached constantly to turn their draft capital into real business gains for them and the team.

Guys still have to produce from the point they are drafted to the point where they must be signed in order to actually earn the contract. It's not like everyone loved this kid from day one and have suddenly turned--there were some questions about the pick from the moment it was made. A small, relatively weak creative center who is an average skater. It's a tough projection to the NHL.

Gorton and Co. can think the world of him. Scouts and the front office get it wrong. Sometimes you take kids and love them and you end up wrong. It's fine, it happens. Is that happening with with Henriksson? Who knows, it's still early. Premier bottom six center? He has to find a place where he can actually play C, because he's not doing that with Frolunda.

I don't get the "don't judge these kids so soon" mentality. It's fine to evaluate players as they progress through each season. You don't think the front office is evaluating the players in real time? They are. Why can't we? It's silly to write off a player at such a young age, but there's nothing wrong with reiterating the concerns about him and his game and looking at how that is affecting him in his current stage of development.

I've probably been the most outspoken critic of his this season (beyond the "he suuuucks" toolbox) and even I readily acknowledge that his coach trusts him, he plays good minutes, and his overall game is better than it what a season ago. The offense, isn't there, though, and that's concerning for a guy who was drafted as a playmaking top-9 center.

Frolunda is not a developmental team for him, the SHL is not a developmental league. This isn't baseball spring training where the veteran pitcher is told to go work on refining his slider and adding a two-seamer at the expense of results; to play he has to contribute. He has to do what his Frolunda coaches ask him to do. I suppose that he's doing that to some extent, since he still plays solid minutes. Eventually, however, the offense needs to show. As I think we all know the reality is that guys who can't score in the SHL don't magically start scoring in the NHL; since he's not a shutdown center, that would present a problem.

He has plenty of time, but he also has a long way to go. And there's nothing wrong with evaluating his progress as we get there.

 

[Edge]

Guys still have to produce from the point they are drafted to the point where they must be signed in order to actually earn the contract. It's not like everyone loved this kid from day one and have suddenly turned--there were some questions about the pick from the moment it was made. A small, relatively weak creative center who is an average skater. It's a tough projection to the NHL.

Gorton and Co. can think the world of him. Scouts and the front office get it wrong. Sometimes you take kids and love them and you end up wrong. It's fine, it happens. Is that happening with with Henriksson? Who knows, it's still early. Premier bottom six center? He has to find a place where he can actually play C, because he's not doing that with Frolunda.

I don't get the "don't judge these kids so soon" mentality. It's fine to evaluate players as they progress through each season. You don't think the front office is evaluating the players in real time? They are. Why can't we? It's silly to write off a player at such a young age, but there's nothing wrong with reiterating the concerns about him and his game and looking at how that is affecting him in his current stage of development.

I've probably been the most outspoken critic of his this season (beyond the "he suuuucks" toolbox) and even I readily acknowledge that his coach trusts him, he plays good minutes, and his overall game is better than it what a season ago. The offense, isn't there, though, and that's concerning for a guy who was drafted as a playmaking top-9 center.

Frolunda is not a developmental team for him, the SHL is not a developmental league. This isn't baseball spring training where the veteran pitcher is told to go work on refining his slider and adding a two-seamer at the expense of results; to play he has to contribute. He has to do what his Frolunda coaches ask him to do. I suppose that he's doing that to some extent, since he still plays solid minutes. Eventually, however, the offense needs to show. As I think we all know the reality is that guys who can't score in the SHL don't magically start scoring in the NHL; since he's not a shutdown center, that would present a problem.

He has plenty of time, but he also has a long way to go. And there's nothing wrong with evaluating his progress as we get there.

I think the challenge with any evaluations is taking into various aspects and attributes and objectively assigning a value to them.

I think where a lot of fans struggle is that they get a little high on guys when things are going well, and too low on them when there are struggles.

Literally, depending on the week, you have guys being penciled into a top 6 role in the NHL or being labeled a bust. I think when a lot of fans buy into those two extremes, emotion comes into play a lot more and every change is magnified.

The reality is that for a lot of these guys, be it Henriksson, Kravtsov, Miller, Lundkvist, Robertson, etc., there's not a heck of a whole that's changed. The challenges facing those prospects is more or less what they were before and will continue to be.

But I think it's important to remember that those challenges don't inherently disqualify guys from finding a role in the NHL, sometimes it just limits what they provide in that role.

I think it's easy to focus too much on upside. So when you start looking at many prospects through that prism, anything less than their ceiling feels disappointing.

I say that because I can already tell you this board is probably going to struggle with that when Miller starts playing his first pro games. Because he's going to be the next kid that a lot of people are penciling into the NHL lineup, and getting caught up on the physical tools, etc., and there's going to be quite a few ups and downs there --- especially when people see how he's still learning the defensive game.

Kreider is another example. People were skeptical when he was drafted (a lot of this board wanted Schroeder). He had a solid D+1 season and everyone was up on him, then he was struggled in his D+2 season and everyone had doubts and there was a desire to pull him from college. Then he had a great D+3 season and a lot of people wanted to raise the bar for him.

That's where the whole 35 goal+, 65+ point expectation started to take hold.

Then he went to the AHL and didn't necessarily light the world on fire, before settling into a 20 goal, 45 point plateau for a while. Ultimately he settled into a 25-30 goal, 50-60 point level, with fans still debating what exactly they had in him.

Now if your someone who had hoped for 35/65, that might be disappointing. But it's still a very good and important player.

My long-winded point is that even if a guy doesn't hit his full potential, it doesn't mean he has to fall all the way to the other extreme either.

 

[nyr2k2]

My long-winded point is that even if a guy doesn't hit his full potential, it doesn't mean he has to fall all the way to the other extreme either.

I agree with this in general, but I think it's important to consider that there are guys who have skill sets that afford several bands of success, and other guys who have much less room for error (error being, not hitting their higher projection). Kreider for example, even if his offense never developed, there were quite a few other translatable skills that made him look like an NHL player; he was big, and excellent skater, wasn't great defensively but was committed and working on it, big frame, etc. There were lots of ways for him to make it. Same can be said for K'Andre Miller and Kravtsov--even if they don't hit their potential as top-pair D and top-six scoring winger, they still have other tools that should reasonably allow them to become NHL players. Morgan Barron is another guy we have that's like this--his offense could not translate at all, but he does plenty of other things that could give him pathways to a successful career.

Then you have someone like Henriksson--slight of frame, not especially strong on the puck, not someone that's going to be on your top PK unit, not a great skater. If the offense doesn't translate to the NHL he has a much, much narrower path to becoming a regular player than those other guys who have physical tools that can carry them.

Everyone is walking a bit of a tightrope on the path to the NHL, but for some guys it's a slack line and other guys it's two-pound test. I think Henriksson is firmly in the latter camp.

 

[Edge]

I agree with this in general, but I think it's important to consider that there are guys who have skill sets that afford several bands of success, and other guys who have much less room for error (error being, not hitting their higher projection). Kreider for example, even if his offense never developed, there were quite a few other translatable skills that made him look like an NHL player; he was big, and excellent skater, wasn't great defensively but was committed and working on it, big frame, etc. There were lots of ways for him to make it. Same can be said for K'Andre Miller and Kravtsov--even if they don't hit their potential as top-pair D and top-six scoring winger, they still have other tools that should reasonably allow them to become NHL players.

Then you have someone like Henriksson--slight of frame, not especially strong on the puck, not someone that's going to be on your top PK unit, not a great skater. If the offense doesn't translate to the NHL he has a much, much narrower path to becoming a regular player than those other guys who have physical tools that can carry them.

Everyone is walking a bit of a tightrope on the path to the NHL, but for some guys it's a slack line and other guys it's two-pound test. I think Henriksson is firmly in the latter camp.

I more or less agree when it comes to Henriksson --- I think the margin for error was always smaller and I've consistently had a harder time figuring out what he projects to be as an NHL player.

I think if all the pieces fell together, the hope was for a Doug Weight type player. But to your point, the odds are always going to be stacked against a guy who is 5'9, and who isn't an elite skater or who doesn't possess one or two other elite skills.

 

[Harbour Dog]

I haven't watched a single period of Henriksson in 2020, but the times that I have seen him, his game has looked exceptionally junior-styled. Lots of low percentage plays and over-handling the puck that don't work often enough against men.

I'm not surprised that he has struggled to produce in the SHL. He needs to attack the game differently, if he is going to be able to utilize the playmaking and vision that people give him credit for.

I was pretty happy to hear that he was going to hopefully get some grinding minutes next to Lundqvist, and I hope it is helping him adjust his style to the pros. But at some point, if he is actually improving, he has to start getting on the scoreboard. He isn't going to be an energy guy at the NHL level.

 

[The Sweetness]

I think many more or less agree with you and I am not sure if anyone is banking on Henriksson to make it, but more hoping for him.

I just have one objection, and that is any kind of portrait of him as not being on par with any kind of reasonable expectation on the development of a kid like him. Like, if we sit down and say 'so this is a kid we drafted in the 2nd round, how do we think he has developed so far? Better than expcted? Worse than expected?'

On the bottom line I don't disagree at all, but this also applies to most 1st round round picks outside the absolute top tier. Henriksson is doing really well in relation to his peers. I do think that you can come to the conclusion that he has been disappointing so far, but my point is that I certainly think that is a result of too much stats scouting.

Yeah, sounds like we are pretty much in agreement. However, there are some recent posts from people who expect Henriksson to be an NHL'er and this is something I'm pushing back against. I believe I quoted one of them and that's kind of why I got dragged into this to begin with.

Anyway, I think you have a fair take on Henriksson and the situation here.

In terms of the bolded, maybe I was unclear but I don't think Henriksson is way behind the curve for where he was drafted. But my point I tried to make is that someone picked late 2nd/early 3rd has the odds stacked strongly against them to begin with. But for a #58 or so pick to kind of just develop as average (which I think is a somewhat fair evaluation of Henriksson so far) then those players are just continuing to track further away from the NHL and their chances of making the NHL are statistically smaller than when they were drafted.

TLDR - Players picked at #58 need to increase their rate of development pretty significantly to have a shot at the NHL. So far Henriksson hasn't done so, which is why I think he's a massive long shot to ever play in the NHL because the clock is ticking on draft picks each year.

 

[bobbop]

Stick taps for the moderators doing a nice cleanup on aisle #6. #weneverleaveamessunattended

 

[egelband]

Stick taps for the moderators doing a nice cleanup on aisle #6. #weneverleaveamessunattended

Oh no. I missed it. #Rubbernecker

 

[theslatcher]

Has tested positive for covid, will miss the WJCs.

 

[nyr2k2]

Has tested positive for covid, will miss the WJCs.

Bummer for him. Besides the obvious potential health complications, the WJC was going to be his one opportunity to really out up some numbers this season.

Hopefully he makes a full recovery.

 

[RGY]

Bummer for him. Besides the obvious potential health complications, the WJC was going to be his one opportunity to really out up some numbers this season.

Hopefully he makes a full recovery.

Really disappointing. Health is obviously most important, but felt the same that this was an opportunity to have a good tournament to build off of. Really wanted to see him in this competition.

So that leaves potentially Garand, Robertson, Schneider, and Berard for the WJCs?

 

[bl02]

Man so much great news lately regarding our prospects. Unreal.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Really disappointing. Health is obviously most important, but felt the same that this was an opportunity to have a good tournament to build off of. Really wanted to see him in this competition.

So that leaves potentially Garand, Robertson, Schneider, and Berard for the WJCs?

And Aaltonen, who is part of the prelim Finland team. God knows why he was picked ahead of Patrik Puistola or Aatu Räty