Prospect Info: Karl Henriksson, C, 2nd round, 58th overall, 2019

[Ola]

I'm honestly not that familiar with Janmark to say. Just looking at bio and stats, he's a lot smaller than Janmark and skews very heavily towards pass-first. Like he's a guy whose assists will always be double or triple his goal totals, like a Michael Nylander with poorer mobility. But I'm not good at player comps because I don't pay that much attention to "around the league" stuff anymore.

Yeah, I think he more fits the mold of the Tampa guys, Point/Gourde/Johnson. A bit of a Marty Straka type.

 

[Ola]

One thing I'm not really clear on with his skating. Is it truly substandard or is it like Derek Stepan-substandard. Derek Stepan, who was actually an adequate skater and not much more. Granted, Stepan was also at least a couple of inches taller.

Definitely not Stepan. His agility is top notch. He is really slippery. He is very quick. But his top gear isn't quite there when going the length of the ice.

 

[AB13]

He has had a great start to the SHL season, played extremely well defensively today which was encouraging, he has been a real standout and played better than I thought throughout his first two games even though I only saw about half of both. Notched an assist for the empty net goal aswell. He is actually very mature in his decision making and stands up better physically than I thought, he is explosive and strong despite not being very tall.

 

[Kovalev27]

I really like this kid. Been nothing but impressive since traverse city and continues to improve. I think he’s got an nhl future. I keep thinking Yanni Gourde is his upside As he gets stronger and works on his skating and I’d love that from him

 

[kovazub94]

I really like this kid. Been nothing but impressive since traverse city and continues to improve. I think he’s got an nhl future. I keep thinking Yanni Gourde is his upside As he gets stronger and works on his skating and I’d love that from him

While some physicality is needed people sometimes mistake a lack of tenacity for it. Fast is an example.

 

[Harbour Dog]

He has had a great start to the SHL season, played extremely well defensively today which was encouraging, he has been a real standout and played better than I thought throughout his first two games even though I only saw about half of both. Notched an assist for the empty net goal aswell. He is actually very mature in his decision making and stands up better physically than I thought, he is explosive and strong despite not being very tall.

Well now, isn't this just a beautiful sentence.

 

[usekakkorightquinn]

I hesitate to put a 19 year old kid on the bust category. However, he's well on his way. He's played 27 SHL games, he has 0 goals and 5 assists. That sucks. Period.

 

[eco's bones]

I hesitate to put a 19 year old kid on the bust category. However, he's well on his way. He's played 27 SHL games, he has 0 goals and 5 assists. That sucks. Period.

Just because he doesn't take the SHL by storm in his rookie season in that league doesn't mean he's a bust. You're still talking about a 19/20 year old playing against seasoned pros in an excellent hockey league. What you're looking for in prospects is that they make progress in their games from year to year and some years there might be a little more progress than others. This year is a big step up for him.....and there's this other thing called wait and see where a young player might struggle in the first half of a season and then start putting things together in the second half.

 

[kovazub94]

Just because he doesn't take the SHL by storm in his rookie season in that league doesn't mean he's a bust. You're still talking about a 19/20 year old playing against seasoned pros in an excellent hockey league. What you're looking for in prospects is that they make progress in their games from year to year and some years there might be a little more progress than others. This year is a big step up for him.....and there's this other thing called wait and see where a young player might struggle in the first half of a season and then start putting things together in the second half.

Coaching stuff clearly is comfortable enough to have him on the first line so that's something. I also partially attribute lack of offensive stats to being a playmaking center shifted to LW. Still, I completely agree with you that I'd like to see progress toward the end of the season. It will be interesting to see how he does at WJC in comparison to his peers.

 

[Mikos87]

He should have a stellar WJC as Sweden's top line centerman next to Raymond and Holtz. That's a very potent line that maximizes Karl's style of play and skillset. I do think that Henriksson is a legitimate prospect, if unheralded. He's getting some great experience, and hopefully he's having a lot of fun doing it. Getting top line minutes as Sweden's centermen in the U18s and U20s is not a bad development path.

 

[nyr2k2]

He's bounced between the top line and the bottom six. When he's on the top line he's normally with Lundqvist and Friberg. Lundqvist has 13 in 18 an Friberg has 9 in 19. Not earth-shattering production but they're picking up points. You want to see more than 4 assists (which inludes 2 secondary assists on ENGs) in 17 games. His TOI has slipped a bit, to just over 12 minutes in his last six games. He's 15th on the team in scoring, again despite being given good minutes on the top line, and is one of only two forwards who have played in more than half the games to not have a goal. IIRC the best stretch the top line had was when undrafted 20-year-old Linus Nassen was moved up there when Henriksson was out. He's a creative player, but he's not Michael Nylander and needs to be able to generate more than 1 SOG per game.

His season isn't a disaster as he's been very active across the whole ice surface and he has the trust of the coaches. He is young and it's good to be in the SHL full time, but his production has just not been there. If that continues, he will eventually see more time on the third line than the top line. This is a guy who between Allsvenskan and SHL the past two seasons has 42 games, 0 goals, and 6 assists. Again--very young, age is on his side, but he has no been able to demonstrate he can be productive at the higher levels in Sweden.

I'm less interested in what he does at the WJC. He is probably the 1C for Sweden and we already know from what he did in the J20 last season (good but not great production) that he can play with other players his age. He plays with the twins and they are very comfortable with him, and he will probably play with them this year and also on the first PP unit. I would expect him to post at least a point-per-game at the WJC because we know he can play at that level.

The question with Henriksson has always been whether he can play against men given his limitations with his frame and his skating. If you're going to be small, you really need to be able to skate. He's small, not particularly strong, and his skating isn't horrible but it's not great. That's potentially a huge problem once you step out of your age group and into competition against guys who skate better than you and who have 20-30 pounds on you.

I like Henriksson because he has some nice skills and age on his side. That said, I'd describe my feelings about him more as "hopeful" rather "optimistic" because when I see him in the SHL he doesn't stand out in any noticeable way. He's just a small wing who doesn't look bad but doesn't do anything noticeable. Unless he can adapt his game somehow to compensate for his limitations, he's not going to make it.

 

[Ola]

@nyr2k2 Great analysis.

Ultimately I think that he is a kid that is exciting to follow and that he has a shot to become a NHLer. We follow these kids year in and year out and try to evaluate what we see from them and draw conclusions on where that might lead. The eye of the needle is real small as a starting point and the ones that do make it usually takes off from day 1 and never looks back. Zac Jones is kind of on that path for example, couldn’t have asked for much more than that. We tend to underrate those kids. It’s of course not something I got numbers on, but of the ones that doesn’t take off from day 1 and meet every challenge, I recon odds just decrease a lot.

With that said, there is no absolute rules. Scoring in hockey is special, stats is stats. The most important thing is that KH is playing fairly well. But at the same time it’s of course not possible to say ‘don’t worry’.

But I can say one thing for sure though, and it’s basically something I’ve said about Henriksson from day 1, and that is that — if — he becomes good enough to play in the NHL, he is exactly the type you want. Tremendously hard worker. Really good at buying himself time when he got the puck so that his line can keep it within the team and keep possession. Very good at getting the puck up ice. Very clutch and got a really good hockey sense. Brayden Point/Yanni Gourde-esq.

But right now it’s not enough to be a deciding factor offensively in the SHL. He needs to evaluate his game, no ifs or buts about it.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

Karl Henriksson is a much better player than his stats suggest. Unfortunately, Joel Lundqvist is a line driver and holds a ton of possession. While that's great for Frolunda, it's not great for Karl in terms of development. Being on the top line in Frolunda isnt really the best place for him. He should be in a middle 6 role there, and ideally eventually earn a C spot where he belongs.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Karl has skill but he is still a long shot NHL'er imo.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Karl has skill but he is still a long shot NHL'er imo.

Which is normal for a 2nd/3rd round pick. Once you get past the first round, or even the top-15, chances of a prospect reaching the NHL dip drastically.

It would be great if Robertson, Jones, Keane, Tärnström, Henriksson, Lindbom and Cuylle would turn into NHL-ers but chances are slim for any of them. I would put money on Robertson and Jones, but anyone else I would consider a bonus

 

[The Sweetness]

Just because he doesn't take the SHL by storm in his rookie season in that league doesn't mean he's a bust. You're still talking about a 19/20 year old playing against seasoned pros in an excellent hockey league. What you're looking for in prospects is that they make progress in their games from year to year and some years there might be a little more progress than others. This year is a big step up for him.....and there's this other thing called wait and see where a young player might struggle in the first half of a season and then start putting things together in the second half.

He didn’t produce in the Allavenskan last year either.

And he isn’t the type of player who was drafted to play in a shutdown role.

Sure, he may start be improving, but so are others players. I’d be absolutely shocked if he makes the NHL.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

He didn’t produce in the Allavenskan last year either.

And he isn’t the type of player who was drafted to play in a shutdown role.

Sure, he may start be improving, but so are others players. I’d be absolutely shocked if he makes the NHL.

His stint with Södertälje was his first real experience with pro hockey. He played 2 games the previous season but last year his loan to Allsvenskan was the first time he was really part of pro hockey for an extended period. Despite not producing, it really helped his career (his words). I think the jury is still out and at age 19 there's so much room to grow still.

Time will tell.

 

[cwede]

... I’d be absolutely shocked if he makes the NHL.

I won't be.
Plays in all situations, is able to complement good players, and rise to their level. Minutes more important than stats at this stage.
Hoping WJC can happen, he's one reason why...

 

[dshea19]

Which is normal for a 2nd/3rd round pick. Once you get past the first round, or even the top-15, chances of a prospect reaching the NHL dip drastically.

It would be great if Robertson, Jones, Keane, Tärnström, Henriksson, Lindbom and Cuylle would turn into NHL-ers but chances are slim for any of them. I would put money on Robertson and Jones, but anyone else I would consider a bonus

I actually think Cuylle has a strong chance to be an NHL 3rd liner. He has a clearly defined game for a clearly defined roll and the skills to get him there.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I actually think Cuylle has a strong chance to be an NHL 3rd liner. He has a clearly defined game for a clearly defined roll and the skills to get him there.

I think the big difference is that Cuylle has a certain playing style that would fit a 4th line role if he doesn't crack the top-9. For Henriksson it's probably top-9 or the SHL

 

[dshea19]

I think the big difference is that Cuylle has a certain playing style that would fit a 4th line role if he doesn't crack the top-9. For Henriksson it's probably top-9 or the SHL

Agreed. If Cuylle doesn't develop top 9 offense, his skating, physical play and size will get him playing time.
I would love to see KH succeed, but it doesn't seem like he has NHL fall back options. In which case he will probably have a wonderful career and life in Sweden.

 

[The Sweetness]

I won't be.
Plays in all situations, is able to complement good players, and rise to their level. Minutes more important than stats at this stage.
Hoping WJC can happen, he's one reason why...

I mean, it's a long shot for a late 2nd round pick to make the NHL as is. And his development hasn't been anything special. Even being as generous as possible you have to say he's been a disappointment so far even for a #58 pick. How you project his current trajectory to the NHL I have no idea.

He's a pretty small guy who has yet to show offense in the Allsvenskan or Elitserien and that's a red flag.

But sure, I hope he turns well but a player picked at #58 will need to have a pretty rapid trajectory to project to the NHL and Henriksson's trajectory has been a disappointment in terms of tracking to the NHL.

 

[The Sweetness]

His stint with Södertälje was his first real experience with pro hockey. He played 2 games the previous season but last year his loan to Allsvenskan was the first time he was really part of pro hockey for an extended period. Despite not producing, it really helped his career (his words). I think the jury is still out and at age 19 there's so much room to grow still.

Time will tell.

Yeah, he can still improve. But he's literally showed nothing yet that points in the direction of the sort of rapid development arc that he'll need to reach the NHL. He's fallen further from the curve he needs to make the NHL rather than accelerating his development.

Comparing him to other Swedish forwards drafted roughly around the same place recently he's produced at a lower level than nearly all of them. And that's keeping in mind someone going around #58 is a long shot to make the NHL as is.

It's very normal for Swedes to play their first pro hockey in their draft +1 season so it's not like Henriksson was in some unique situation.

I'm just trying to temper expectations. Zac Jones and Robertson are looking great but we should remember they are the exceptions and not the rule and Henriksson has quickly moved off the radar.

 

[eco's bones]

He didn’t produce in the Allavenskan last year either.

And he isn’t the type of player who was drafted to play in a shutdown role.

Sure, he may start be improving, but so are others players. I’d be absolutely shocked if he makes the NHL.

Maybe this is a poor take on my part but Allsvenskan I don't think is that huge of a dropoff from the SHL as maybe someone might say the AHL is from the NHL. It's pretty much moving up from the junior ranks to either Allsvenskan or SHL that's the bigger deal.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Maybe this is a poor take on my part but Allsvenskan I don't think is that huge of a dropoff from the SHL as maybe someone might say the AHL is from the NHL. It's pretty much moving up from the junior ranks to either Allsvenskan or SHL that's the bigger deal.

Yes, it isn't a major league/minor league system. The top teams in Allsvenskan are on par with the bottom teams in the SHL.