Kapanen - Capable?

Point total for next season?


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Flying Dego

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Apr 30, 2013
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If/when Kap finds himself on the 3rd line, I don't think it'll be entirely his fault. It'll be a familiarity/comfort thing. Geno's got Rust as his RW. Sid's hard to find guys to play with.

I still think the 3rd line is probably Kapanen's best landing spot. Does everything you want a 3rd line guy to do, and provides a much needed boost of speed/production. If he settles in and succeeds with Sid or Geno, awesome, but if he doesn't, all is not lost imo.

Unless we pickup someone else I just don't see it. I am rooting for Poulin to make the team but expecting a 19 yr old to play critical top line minutes successfully this season? I struggle to see it.

If Poulin is that damn good than we may contend for a cup...so again all for it if he is the reincarnation of rookie Guentzel.
 

Big Friggin Dummy

Registered User
Feb 22, 2019
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Unless we pickup someone else I just don't see it. I am rooting for Poulin to make the team but expecting a 19 yr old to play critical top line minutes successfully this season? I struggle to see it.

If Poulin is that damn good than we may contend for a cup...so again all for it if he is the reincarnation of rookie Guentzel.
I think Poulin's best shot at cracking the lineup is this season. We have great LWs for the top-6, taking pressure off of Poulin should he make the team and have a shot at playing there. If not, he could always fall in on the 3rd line with McCann and Blueger, though again, I really prefer to run a McCann-TB-Kapanen 3rd line. Even if it means Poulin playing with Sid or Geno and learning on the job.
 

smitty10

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Aug 6, 2009
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Kapanen is best slotted as a 3RW. He is incredibly fast and is a good PKer. His speed enables him to turn a lot of otherwise harmless situations into scoring opportunities. He doesn't think the game as quickly as he skates, which is why he isn't a top 6 forward. He struggles when playing with elite talent and isn't suited to a 1st PP unit. When he's motivated he can also bring a feisty element, which can be game changing at times.

All-in-all, you guys got an elite skater who can PK and provides secondary scoring.

Expect at least 40 points out of him every year. 50 isn't out of the question though.
 

Ugene Magic

EVIL LAUGH
Oct 17, 2008
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I think @ponder brings up great points and KK will hopefully get a shot at the Pens #1 PP unit on the LW wall with his RHS. This will definitely affect his output.
 

CrosbyMalkin

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Aug 7, 2005
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I have yet to hear a good argument truly against utilizing the lines that way. Both would get similar ice time being 2 #1 lines...

Guentzel-Malkin-Rust taking on other teams second D-pairings, we saw what they did to the best pairings...it would be unfair.

Zucker-Crosby showed great play off each other, he's fast and he finishes Sid's passes. Kapanen is high speed with some talent, can't see those two not opening the ice for Sid. Will teams choose to leave their 2nd pairing to cover Sid? Good luck if that's the route chosen.

I'd he open to other options but for me:

Sid-Rust never looked great for more than a moment here and there. Geno looks better with Rust.

Zucker-Geno didn't look as comfortable together. Granted it was very short so that may be unfair.

Now enter Sullivan...
Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Zucker-Malkin-Kapanen

Just not what I want to see initially IMO.

I think the one sure thing you will see Sullivan start with is Malkin-Rust. I will put money on that. Will see how the top 6 changes as the year goes on but I honestly think any of the combinations could work. I love the 4 wingers for the top 6. McCann is also the perfect fill in if one of those wingers misses time. Guentzel is the obvious gem of the group. Zucker, Rust, and Kapanen are all fairly equal players in my opinion and I think they could finish in any order with points depending on usage. For example whoever gets this spot has the most points of the 3.

PP1: Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Letang, ??

PP2: 2 of (Zucker, Rust, Kapanen), McCann, Marino, Matheson

I also think Poulin makes this team out of camp. All reports I have read say his skating is at another level. The crazy thing is we have so much PP depth I think he might not even get 2nd unit time until injuries happen. Those are stacked PP units. The PK's will be stacked with fast dangerous forwards also. I really like this team and think it is going to be much better than people think. Poulin makes the jump and that 3rd line takes off.
 
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CrosbyMalkin

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Aug 7, 2005
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Leafs fan here, who has seen lots of Kappy. It was hard for him to get a top 6 role (or top PP unit) with us, because we’ve got 2 really strong RWs in Marner and Nylander. We tried him briefly at LW, but he wasn’t good on his off side. Because of this, he’s played almost exclusively 3rd line at ES, and 2nd PP (lots of PK too, he’s very good on the PK). Some people think he simply has a 3rd line game, but I disagree, I think he’s well suited to a top 6 role, just had too much competition at RW on the Leafs. The last 2 seasons he’s scored at a pace of 43-46 points per 82 games, which is pretty good for that kind of usage.

If he plays with Sid or Geno all year, and plays mostly on the top PP, I think a pace of 60+ points per 82 games is very likely. If he bounces between the top 6 and the 3rd line, and plays on the 2nd PP unit, you’re likely looking at TML production, a pace of 40-50 points per 82 games. I think he’ll work better with Geno than Sid.

Also, I say “pace” because it’ll be a shortened season, and injuries often happen - predicting games played is a total crapshoot. But I do think he’ll score at a 60+ point pace, if he’s very consistently playing in the top 6 at ES, and on the 1st PP. He’s a talented guy with truly elite speed, good hands, and a good shot, plus decent physicality, compete and hockey IQ. His main weakness is that he’s not very good at slowing the game down, using his speed in strategic moments vs. trying to go 100% all the time. He’s vaguely like a more physical, less talented Kessel.

Thanks for the insight. One of your best points is how good his point totals are for his usage given. Obviously being behind Marner and Nylander at RW pretty much guarantee's almost any RW being slotted to 3 RW. So everyone that was talking about Kapanen not working out as a top 2 line winger it is easy to see why. Kapanen's point totals of being at 40+ point pace almost all 5v5 and playing with much lesser offensive players than Crosby and Guentzel is actually pretty impressive. I do think we got a gem waiting to break out and he will prove better value than the Zucker deal because he will be just as good but much younger.
 
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K Fleur

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Mar 28, 2014
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I hope Kap knocks it out of the park here(especially since we overpaid to get him) but I also think people really should temper expectations for a player that was below replacement level last season.

In my limited viewings of the Leafs the last 2ish years I’ve liked Johnsson better than Kap. And Toronto gave away Johnsson for almost nothing.
 

CrosbyMalkin

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Aug 7, 2005
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I hope Kap knocks it out of the park here(especially since we overpaid to get him) but I also think people really should temper expectations for a player that was below replacement level last season.

In my limited viewings of the Leafs the last 2ish years I’ve liked Johnsson better than Kap. And Toronto gave away Johnsson for almost nothing.

Johnson is two years older, 3" shorter, not as fast, and plays LW. Pens obviously needed a RW and they got the one they wanted. Kapanen is just entering his prime has a 20 goal and 44 point season and was on pace for over 40+ points last year playing 3RW with much lesser linemates than Crosby and Guentzel. No shame in being the 3RW when Marner and Nylander are the RW's in front of you. Pens have no RW's close to those two. Rust is good but a step below those guys and we have nobody else to hold Kapanen back. I think Kapanen will have a breakout season even though we don't need that for this to be a successful trade. If Kapanen has 20+ goals and 45+ points while playing good PK and 40 of the points at even strength he will be a huge asset. I see Kapanen equal to players like Zucker and Rust and he will prove that this year.
 
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Dipsy Doodle

Rent A Barn
May 28, 2006
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The good thing about this prediction is he likely puts up 40 pts on the 3rd line.

Yeah I'm shooting pretty low, his pace has been right in that wheelhouse over the last 2 years in Toronto.

Hope he does more but this is my general expectation.
 

Gurglesons

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Dec 18, 2009
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Yeah I'm shooting pretty low, his pace has been right in that wheelhouse over the last 2 years in Toronto.

Hope he does more but this is my general expectation.

I don’t really see him doing more. The idea would be he adds an element to the top six in terms of size and physical play we just simply haven’t had there since Kunitz aged out and even then Kunitz was not built like Kapanen.
 

CrosbyMalkin

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Aug 7, 2005
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I don’t really see him doing more. The idea would be he adds an element to the top six in terms of size and physical play we just simply haven’t had there since Kunitz aged out and even then Kunitz was not built like Kapanen.

So what your saying is that Kapanen played on the 3rd line with much lesser linemates and still was on pace for 40+ points but playing on the 1st line with Crosby and Guentzel adds nothing to those totals? How? Crosby and Guentzel won't finish better on his passes than his 3rd line players he played with? Kapanen won't get better looks from passes from Crosby and Guentzel? Kapanen won't get more offensive zone opportunities playing on a scoring line vs a 3rd line?

I am not saying Kapanen is a guarantee to be better than his 20 goal and 44 point best season but I like his chances. I personally am fine with that production considering he most likely won't be on the top PP but that is not his top end production. I believe Kapanen can produce more and think he has a very good chance to have 50+ points this season. I think Kapanen will be just as good as Zucker and Rust. Whoever gets that last PP spot on the top PP unit will get the most points. I think it is up for grabs which one of those 3 gets the most 5v5 points.
 

Gurglesons

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So what your saying is that Kapanen played on the 3rd line with much lesser linemates and still was on pace for 40+ points but playing on the 1st line with Crosby and Guentzel adds nothing to those totals? How? Crosby and Guentzel won't finish better on his passes than his 3rd line players he played with? Kapanen won't get better looks from passes from Crosby and Guentzel? Kapanen won't get more offensive zone opportunities playing on a scoring line vs a 3rd line?

I am not saying Kapanen is a guarantee to be better than his 20 goal and 44 point best season but I like his chances. I personally am fine with that production considering he most likely won't be on the top PP but that is not his top end production. I believe Kapanen can produce more and think he has a very good chance to have 50+ points this season. I think Kapanen will be just as good as Zucker and Rust. Whoever gets that last PP spot on the top PP unit will get the most points. I think it is up for grabs which one of those 3 gets the most 5v5 points.

Kapanen played most of his time with Marleau and Matthews and 18-19 and a decent amount of his time with Tavares and Marner in 19-20.

Just because Toronto fans perceive him as a 3rd liner doesn’t mean he was played there. We rarely see a player increase their point totals with Jake and Sid by any significant amount. So that is why I think a 44 pt guy could become a 50 pt one with exclusive usage on L1 or L2. That being said I don’t see Kappy sticking with Sid. His skill set is not complimentary and I think we see Rust up there within 10-15 games.
 

Pens x

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Oct 8, 2016
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Didn’t Kapanen play with top end talent for most of the first part of the season? He played with Marner and Tavares in the first quarter of the season at times. His point production fell off a cliff for the last quarter of the season when he was buried in the lineup.

He’s not going to produce playing with the likes of friggin McCann and Jank, so he has to somehow play in our top 6. You can’t have he and Tanev getting so much dee money to simply be fast penalty killers.
 

CrosbyMalkin

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Aug 7, 2005
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Kapanen played most of his time with Marleau and Matthews and 18-19 and a decent amount of his time with Tavares and Marner in 19-20.

Just because Toronto fans perceive him as a 3rd liner doesn’t mean he was played there. We rarely see a player increase their point totals with Jake and Sid by any significant amount. So that is why I think a 44 pt guy could become a 50 pt one with exclusive usage on L1 or L2. That being said I don’t see Kappy sticking with Sid. His skill set is not complimentary and I think we see Rust up there within 10-15 games.

So would your ideal lines be?

Zucker-Crosby-Rust
Guentzel-Malkin-Kapenan

Something like this for the bottom 6 from what I remember you would put Blueger as the 3C. I personally would like to give Jankowski a shot at it first to see if he can get back to his previous production.

McCann-Blueger-Poulin
???-Jankowski-Tanev

Lots of choices for that last spot with going young with O'Connor or fast with Lafferty. Also have the veteran options of ZAR and Sceviour. Almost forgot but also have Rodriguez.

If you could make your 4 lines with what we have in our system what would your lines be?
 
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CrosbyMalkin

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Aug 7, 2005
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Didn’t Kapanen play with top end talent for most of the first part of the season? He played with Marner and Tavares in the first quarter of the season at times. His point production fell off a cliff for the last quarter of the season when he was buried in the lineup.

He’s not going to produce playing with the likes of friggin McCann and Jank, so he has to somehow play in our top 6. You can’t have he and Tanev getting so much dee money to simply be fast penalty killers.

I saw Kapanen's most common linemates last year and it wasn't any of the big boys. Kapanen might of played with them for some games but from what I heard it was his off wing and that didn't work well.

I think Kapanen playing RW with two great players that can pass with the best of them Kapanen will have plenty of scoring opportunities. Like I posted I still believe Pens will get fair value in this trade even if Kapanen remains a 20 goal and 45 point player. Kapanen has scored almost all his points 5v5 and PK so those totals are very good. Anything more than that is a bonus. I personally think Kapanen will reach 50 points.
 
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Honour Over Glory

Fire Sully
Jan 30, 2012
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Pascal "Shoot wide way too f***ing often" Dupuis was a 50+ player with Sid at some point, he had a moment of brilliance outside of the Pens, once where he scored 20 goals.

Kapanen is a 1st round pick that has the talent to put up 50-60+...odd to see so many think he can't do it. The Leafs forwards don't play like the Pens forwards, more notably, Crosby, a north-south bloke. I think Kappy will fit in perfectly fine.

We're doubting a bloke that put up 40+ pts back to back 2 seasons (was on pace for it this season, no way he wouldn't in the last 13 games, hit at least 4pts).

Dupuis was barely a 30pt player before he came over, had one 48pt season, then on pace for 36 and it was downhill for him after that until he played with Crosby at his absolute peak. I think a bloke like Kappy that as top 6 talent, can achieve that.
 

Twowingcantfly

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Jul 4, 2019
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Pascal "Shoot wide way too f***ing often" Dupuis was a 50+ player with Sid at some point, he had a moment of brilliance outside of the Pens, once where he scored 20 goals.

Kapanen is a 1st round pick that has the talent to put up 50-60+...odd to see so many think he can't do it. The Leafs forwards don't play like the Pens forwards, more notably, Crosby, a north-south bloke. I think Kappy will fit in perfectly fine.

We're doubting a bloke that put up 40+ pts back to back 2 seasons (was on pace for it this season, no way he wouldn't in the last 13 games, hit at least 4pts).

Dupuis was barely a 30pt player before he came over, had one 48pt season, then on pace for 36 and it was downhill for him after that until he played with Crosby at his absolute peak. I think a bloke like Kappy that as top 6 talent, can achieve that.
Totally agree. Most nights in Toronto he was top two player on the ice(counting both teams)
Leafs brass spent too much time trying to hide/help 11.5 million dollar mistake. Media in Toronto and some fans will be shocked when Kapp pots his 50 in 65 games(not me). Will be clutch player many nights with some very big goals. Great steal for Pens
 
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