Confirmed Signing with Link: [EDM] Dominik Kahun signs with the Oilers (1 year, $975K)

[oilerbear]

I like Kahun a lot. I was furious when Buffalo didn't qualify him. Until of course it was because they were clearing cap for Taylor Hall. Still am hoping Kahun can be brought back. He is the ideal middle 6 40 point forward.

PPP are 2.71 times easier to generate than EVP cause of man advantage. even goal diff is much harder to generate.

Strong top 125 fwd depth is part 4 of the Campionship roster core proof (Thanks VGK For selecting 100% of pkayer in Exp that fit my theory)

Top +ve even goal differential Players are extremely important to reg ssn and first 2 playoff round Success and My overall championship model.


Evp production last 2 yrs with like production fwds in ()
Kahun
23 evg #153 fwd ( Josh Anderson, Krecji)
64 evp #113 fwd ( W. Nylander)
T. Hall (8M) 22 evg 59 Evp.
Every 4 yrs Hall is a top 60 to top 75 fwd with 1 MVP caliber yr and a lot of missed GM’s.

111 fwds had 23 evg 64 Evp. That is a #4 Fwd. (4 x31 =124fwd)

 

[HolyCrap]

never drop that soap in jail boys ....

Ok I’ll. admit it. This made me laugh out loud. Hahaha

 

[oilerbear]

Jujhar is a fan favorite, including me, but I think he is a borderline NHLer at this point.

26 yrs of Championship teams needIng top 15 pk fwds in final 4 Series To win those championships says he is a real important NHL player.
(See My championship roster proof Apr. 17-20 Comment on HFboard pre VGK exp draft.)

Khaira is a critical PK fwd.
PK fwd goal reduction has 5.42 times more cap value than PP goal production.
GM under pay PK Goal diff affect.
Teams that give up 2.00 GAA in 4gm of final 4 series do not (usually) win championships. Their is the odd team that benefits from a path of team injuries in each series. 2006 Carolina.

 

[bucks_oil]

Jujhar is a fan favorite, including me, but I think he is a borderline NHLer at this point.

He's not a favorite for me. I grew tired of seeing him on-off in terms of (my perception of his) effort.

But his numbers on the PK over the last two years are, frankly, absolutely elite. Arguably irreplaceable.

This year he was arguably the best PK forward in the league.

Last year I think he was 10th.

You gotta find room for that guy. He's a role player. Exceeding at his role.

(incidentally Archibald and RNH also made the list of best PKers in the league... they stay too)

Guys like Chiasson, Haas... I'm not sure what "role" they play in a bottom six that needs to 1) get better on the third line... check that's done with Ennis, Turris, Pulju perhaps Kahun) and 2) play limited ES on the 4th, shutdown line where you need to hide your "1-role" players.

In my mind our lineup is:

XXX McD Kassian
RNH Drai Yama
Ennis Turris Pulju
XXX Khaira Archie

XXX's: Hopefullysomeonebetter, Neal, Chiasson, Nygard, Haas, Benson, Granlund, Russel, etc, etc...

Neal is probably in by default. After that you gotta choose 2, maybe 3 from the rest and jettison the extras IMO.

 

[snipes]

Edmonton looking good up front tbh.

Nugent-Hopkins - McDavid - Kassian
Kahun - Draisaitl - Yamamoto
Ennis - Turris - Puljujarvi
Neal - Khaira - Chiasson

That’s the best forward depth we have had in decades if Kahun signs.

That’s a legitimate and skilled top 9. Some good size and a bit skill on the 4th line as well.

 

[Sweetpotato]

Shit is Neal really a 4th liner at this point?

People are slating him there because everyone else is on paper better, but he was phenomenal in the play in vs Chicago, similar to his first month or 2 in the season. Chiasson also played well but both were stapled to the 4th line because it was playing so well.

If he comes back healthy he'll push others down the line up. I wouldn't be shocked to see him in the top 6 and Kassian back to the 4th line.

 

[Double Dion]

Jujhar is a fan favorite, including me, but I think he is a borderline NHLer at this point.

Agreed. He is basically your version of Rinaldo. Insert him for certain games, but there's no upside there if he needs to sit in the stands.

 

[Double Dion]

Shit is Neal really a 4th liner at this point?

For me he's not an NHLer of any type. But I have a pretty bitter taste in my mouth for that pouting slug.

 

[T Maks]

Come on, let’s sign Kahun already. Let’s Go Oilers Let’s Go!!

 

[ManofSteel55]

Shit is Neal really a 4th liner at this point?

Not really. He's not a 3rd liner. Not a 2nd liner over Nuge. So on Edmonton he is first line - and he did spend some time there last year - or 4th line. He's still aces on the powerplay though.

 

[majormajor]

Let Jujhar go. Keep Archibald, and Haas. Nygard and ennis are coming off an injury or something are they not? So who knows if they are going to be ready to go or durable by the start of the season. I don't get the love for Russell you can find guys like that anywhere. A few of these guys will pass through waivers unclaimed IMO (Russell/Nygard/Jujhar)

Jujhar is a fan favorite, including me, but I think he is a borderline NHLer at this point.

Love the guy, not the results.

Oilers got outscored 34-15 at 5v5 with Jujhar on the ice. A replacement level 4C should be getting outscored like 25-20.

Not really. He's not a 3rd liner. Not a 2nd liner over Nuge. So on Edmonton he is first line - and he did spend some time there last year - or 4th line. He's still aces on the powerplay though.

Neal is a 4th liner at 5v5, no doubt. He scored 5 5v5 goals last year.

 

[majormajor]

Guys like Chiasson, Haas... I'm not sure what "role" they play in a bottom six that needs to 1) get better on the third line... check that's done with Ennis, Turris, Pulju perhaps Kahun) and 2) play limited ES on the 4th, shutdown line where you need to hide your "1-role" players.

In my mind our lineup is:

XXX McD Kassian
RNH Drai Yama
Ennis Turris Pulju
XXX Khaira Archie

XXX's: Hopefullysomeonebetter, Neal, Chiasson, Nygard, Haas, Benson, Granlund, Russel, etc, etc...

Neal is probably in by default. After that you gotta choose 2, maybe 3 from the rest and jettison the extras IMO.

Look at last year's 5v5 on-ice results.

	GF	GA
Khaira	15	34
Chiasson	21	19
Haas	12	15

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

You just singled out the only Oilers bottom sixers that didn't get caved in last year. How many goals does Khaira stop on the PK again?

Edit: I just did the math and if Khaira had the same PK success rate as Archibald/Sheahan, he'd have allowed 4 more goals. That doesn't make up for the 5v5 issues.

 

[CycloneSweep]

never drop that soap in jail boys ....

Why not?

 

[TheUltimateOiler]

Kahun gonna sign with the Oilers this week.

 

[DropTheGloves]

Kahun gonna sign with the Oilers this week.

How do you know, did he add Drai on MySpace?

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

PPP are 2.71 times easier to generate than EVP cause of man advantage. even goal diff is much harder to generate.

Strong top 125 fwd depth is part 4 of the Campionship roster core proof (Thanks VGK For selecting 100% of pkayer in Exp that fit my theory)

Top +ve even goal differential Players are extremely important to reg ssn and first 2 playoff round Success and My overall championship model.


Evp production last 2 yrs with like production fwds in ()
Kahun
23 evg #153 fwd ( Josh Anderson, Krecji)
64 evp #113 fwd ( W. Nylander)
T. Hall (8M) 22 evg 59 Evp.
Every 4 yrs Hall is a top 60 to top 75 fwd with 1 MVP caliber yr and a lot of missed GM’s.

111 fwds had 23 evg 64 Evp. That is a #4 Fwd. (4 x31 =124fwd)

Uhh trying to understand the gist of this post. Are you trying to insinuate Kahun is a better player or better signing then Taylor Hall?Or that every 4 years Taylor Hall is a 2nd line player and the other 3 years he is even worse then that?

I was very high on Kahun even though us Sabre fans got to watch him in a whopping 6 games as a Sabre. Many were furious he was not QOed (because no one thought there was a chance in hell Hall was coming here)

But not a single Sabre fan even cares about Kahun if he ends up signing elsewhere anymore after Hall was brought in. Would I like Kahun back? Of course, he is a versatile .5 ppg forward and perfect for a 3rd line role. His agent said re-signing with the Sabres was still an option. But if he signs elsewhere it really is not going to break any of our hearts, as we lost a ~40 point player for an elite former Hart winning star.

 

[KahunWOW]

I took a look at some of the remaining free agents and some stats from the past season. I added RNH to put some Oilers context:

Points per 60 min of ice time:
Mike Hoffman: 3.0
RNH: 2.8
Dominik Kahun: 2.5
Anthony Duclair: 2.2
Derick Brassard: 2.1
Alex Galchenyuk: 2.0
Erik Haula: 1.9
Carl Soderberg: 1.9
Andreas Athanasiou: 1.8
Conor Sheary: 1.7
Cory Perry: 1.6
Mikael Granlund: 1.6

Powerplay time per game:
Dominik Kahun: 1:03
Conor Sheary: 1:11
Alex Galchenyuk: 1:40
Derick Brassard: 1:43
Andreas Athanasiou: 2:01
Cory Perry: 2:08
Carl Soderberg: 2:09
Erik Haula: 2:18
Mikael Granlund: 2:27
Anthony Duclair: 2:34
Mike Hoffman: 3:39
RNH: 3:45

sum of takeaways to giveaways (plus means more ta than ga)
RNH: +15
Dominik Kahun: +9
Erik Haula: +6
Carl Soderberg: +4
Conor Sheary: +1
Cory Perry: -9
Mikael Granlund: -10
Derick Brassard: -14
Alex Galchenyuk: -15
Andreas Athanasiou: -16
Mike Hoffman: -21
Anthony Duclair: -28

Other than Hoffman, Kahun is most likely the best offensive player left. Just very smart overall, and also has almost no PIM (8).

Also looks like Kahun puts up very similar numbers to RNH...
a) without the benefit of playing on a line with either McD or Draisaitl.
b) with way less powerplay TOI

The only difference at all is Kahun only has 13 min of TOI per game. Why? I don't know.

Could be one of the most underrated players in the league. Pretty surprised teams are not lining up for him, considering his contract is proably only someting like 2.5M, if at all.

 

[bucks_oil]

Look at last year's 5v5 on-ice results.

	GF	GA
Khaira	15	34
Chiasson	21	19
Haas	12	15

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

You just singled out the only Oilers bottom sixers that didn't get caved in last year. How many goals does Khaira stop on the PK again?

Edit: I just did the math and if Khaira had the same PK success rate as Archibald/Sheahan, he'd have allowed 4 more goals. That doesn't make up for the 5v5 issues.

Yeah... Khaira isn't great (or at least with predominantly Sheahan and Archie wasn't great) at 5v5. No argument there, that's why I want a 4th line with true role players getting only about 6-8min at EV.

Regarding the "4 more goals if Khaira had the same rate as Archie/Sheahan", I'm not sure where you are getting your numbers?

NHL.com has:
Khaira: 2.37 SHGA/60
Archibald: 5.08 SHGA/60
Sheahan: 5.42 SHGA/60

Round numbers, Khaira had ~3 fewer goals per 60 minutes.

Archie and Sheahan played about 150mins on the PK, so if they'd performed like Khaira, we'd have: 150/60 x ~3 = ~7.5 goals.

Niether Chiasson nor Haas spent any significant time on the PK. If we are looking at them for 5v5 performance, IMO they need to be competing for 3rd line roles. If they can't make it on our third line, then we can fit them "in a role" on the 4th.

Anyway, it all depends on what your strategy is. Sounds like you want to role 4 lines, so you need all-rounders on each of the bottom two lines.

I want to role 3 lines that can out-perform at EV and that include our Elite 20+ min a night forwards, and then have a 4th that can win a draw, get the puck out, and go back to the bench until the PK. Occasionally, they can come out and bang a body or two on the cycle.

 

[majormajor]

Yeah... Khaira isn't great (or at least with predominantly Sheahan and Archie wasn't great) at 5v5. No argument there, that's why I want a 4th line with true role players getting only about 6-8min at EV.

Regarding the "4 more goals if Khaira had the same rate as Archie/Sheahan", I'm not sure where you are getting your numbers?

NHL.com has:
Khaira: 2.37 SHGA/60
Archibald: 5.08 SHGA/60
Sheahan: 5.42 SHGA/60

Round numbers, Khaira had ~3 fewer goals per 60 minutes.

Archie and Sheahan played about 150mins on the PK, so if they'd performed like Khaira, we'd have: 150/60 x ~3 = ~7.5 goals.

Niether Chiasson nor Haas spent any significant time on the PK. If we are looking at them for 5v5 performance, IMO they need to be competing for 3rd line roles. If they can't make it on our third line, then we can fit them "in a role" on the 4th.

Anyway, it all depends on what your strategy is. Sounds like you want to role 4 lines, so you need all-rounders on each of the bottom two lines.

I want to role 3 lines that can out-perform at EV and that include our Elite 20+ min a night forwards, and then have a 4th that can win a draw, get the puck out, and go back to the bench until the PK. Occasionally, they can come out and bang a body or two on the cycle.

- Khaira is bad at 5v5 with everyone, the only players he didn't get buried with were Chiasson, Haas, and Neal.

- 6-8 minutes 5v5 is unheard of for a 4th line. I think there were two 4th lines (Toronto and Washington) that were 8-9 minutes at 5v5, everyone else was over 9 minutes. If you keep Khaira at 4C you're probably at ~10 minutes 5v5 and between -10 and -20 on the year.

- Khaira has only done this once and shorthanded performance is volatile season to season. If he pulls off a 2.37 SHGA/60 again, then I'm listening, but odds are he's not Bergeron and he'd be 4+.

- Chiasson actually has been a PKer before, so has Turris, both with some decent numbers. It's difficult to compare numbers because PK success isn't usually driven much by any one PK forward, more of a team/goalie stat.

 

[Jumptheshark]

I think this boat has sailed unless the oilers move out a FWD

 

[JaegerDice]

Whoever signs him is going to be very happy with what they get.

He's not elite in any category, but only good things happen for his team when he's on the ice.

 

[Roof Daddy]

I’d have no problem moving out Khaira to make room for Kahun. I think a team like Jersey would be interested in him big time - they’re pretty small up front, JJ could bring some size and toughness they’re sorely lacking. Might be able to net us a 5th or 6th in return. Then if we get a 5th/6th in return, it makes it a little easier to attach a 4th to Chiasson to move him. That should be enough cap and roster space to get Kahun in.

Nuge-McD-Pulju (I think he’s gonna surprise)
Kahun-Drai-Yami
Neal-Turris-Archibald
Ennis/Nygaard-Haas-Kassian

 

[Gurglesons]

Whoever signs him is going to be very happy with what they get.

He's not elite in any category, but only good things happen for his team when he's on the ice.

I think the fans will be. Something is up with this guy to be traded 3 times in 2 years and not being signed by now given his production.

 

[zar]

I’d have no problem moving out Khaira to make room for Kahun. I think a team like Jersey would be interested in him big time - they’re pretty small up front, JJ could bring some size and toughness they’re sorely lacking. Might be able to net us a 5th or 6th in return. Then if we get a 5th/6th in return, it makes it a little easier to attach a 4th to Chiasson to move him. That should be enough cap and roster space to get Kahun in.

Nuge-McD-Pulju (I think he’s gonna surprise)
Kahun-Drai-Yami
Neal-Turris-Archibald
Ennis/Nygaard-Haas-Kassian

You would think so. I have been a huge JJK supporter in the past because I thin he could be an awesome 3rd line guy... big, strong, positionally smart, can play wing or center. Problems is, he rarely gets motivated to play BIG and has very little compete in his repertoire. I have given up on him.

I have no issues shipping him out for whatever we can get for him, especially if we can bring in a solid player like Kahun.

 

[Mr Positive]

I think this boat has sailed unless the oilers move out a FWD

well, that's simple

Patrick Russell/Khaira/Chiasson to the AHL

There's no obvious LW for McDavid as of today. Ennis? That's more of a winger in a pinch, more suited to the 3rd line