Kadri vs. Kerfoot. Who is the more effective third line C?

LeafingTheWay

Registered User
May 31, 2014
6,726
1,855
Nice :laugh:

Just one question before we end it off, have you really never seen/heard about on-ice sh% and/or PDO?

They won't if you factor in QoC

Kerfoot's QoC isn't changing, nor is Tavares/Marner/Matthews/Nylander's QoC. So what do you mean by factor in QoC? That's a constant. The only thing that can change is their production rate, and 5v5 on-ice sh% tells us that Tavares/Marner have had a very low 5v5 oish% (will rise soon) and that the Mikheyev/Kerfoot have had a very high 5v5 oish% (will drop soon). It's silly to assume Mikheyev/Kerfoot will continue to lead the team in 5v5 production rates.
 

Wafflewhipper

Registered User
Jan 18, 2014
14,114
5,694
So far, Kerfoot has pretty much done more with less. It's still very early, but so far this looks very good for a secondary piece in the trade.

He wasn’t the secondary piece in the trade for starters. It was about moving away from Gardiner and replacing him at a cost efficient cap hit offensively and getting a younger cheaper third line center that looks like a 50 points and 15-20 goal player that wins draws and skates a bit better and fits the role cheaper for longer.

Kerfoot has the contract not Barrie. Barrie is a rental and not working out particularly well under The Babcock so far. Kerfoot was the main piece! Kadri is the better player and cheaper had they simply moved him to top 6 winger because Kerfoot and Barrie are costing us more right now.$6,250,000 where Kadri was only$4,500,000. Plus we gave up a third and recieved a sixth i believe.

All the cap hit bantering on here over Willy,Matthews and Marner diverted from attention being paid to this trade. I don’t particularly like this deal with Colorado more so than what our core guys got on contract actually.

It would be safe to say that with the emergence of korsh,Timashov,Moore,Goat,Sandin,Lilly,Soupie and others that we could have put together a nice top six/ bottom six without this deal ever happening. I think assets can be managed by moving Barrie and Ceci even before the deadline without worrying to much about deteriorating the competitive balance of the team.

Kadri/Tavares/ Marner
Soupie/Matthews/Nylander could have been our top six for cheaper if we had not done the deal.

Also Willy and Kadri are both better scoring utility centers if injury occured and offered better flexability to the lineup card and cap hit.

I don’t like the deal
 
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Boutette

Been there done that
Sep 28, 2017
2,991
1,056
Nice :laugh:

Just one question before we end it off, have you really never seen/heard about on-ice sh% and/or PDO?

It's irrelevant to the stats I pointed out and the references to Kerfoots play and on ice style/behavior because your granula advance statwanking obsession of 5v5 has literally nothing to do with my argument.
 

LeafingTheWay

Registered User
May 31, 2014
6,726
1,855
It's irrelevant to the stats I pointed out and the references to Kerfoots play and on ice style/behavior because your granula advance statwanking obsession of 5v5 has literally nothing to do with my argument.

Okay gotcha, you don't know what on-ice sh% is. PM me if you want to learn about it.
 

Wafflewhipper

Registered User
Jan 18, 2014
14,114
5,694
Kerfoot seems to be a better puckhound.
Better motor.
And clearly finding success as a Leaf on the 3rd line, heck hes making more Impact than Mango,Kap and Nylander currently.

Kadri albeit with major recency Bias, has lost his skating acumen, his puck handling and his shot went down hill after he got married.

Last season he was a passenger 90% of the season and when he was delegated as a shutdown guy for Bergeron line 2 seasons ago, he crapped that assignement and we had to be saved by turtleneck Pleks.

Kerfoot so far... for Modern Leafs.
BETTER

What the hell is a modern Leaf? Do you mean run and gun and soft with weak defense? There is nothing modern about that.
 

Pookie

Wear a mask
Oct 23, 2013
16,172
6,684
The sum of the whole is greater than the parts.

This team acquiring Kerfoot and with inked contracts to AJ, Kapanen, Marner, etc etc is stronger than it would have been if keeping Kadri meant losing one of the above.

And call it what it is.

Kadri was a good regular season contributor.

He was a massive playoff failure.

He played 6 out of 14 playoff games in two years. And really only a generous 4 games in a 2/3C role. He lost his job to Plekanec when he returned after the first suspension.

He will not be missed in the postseason as you can’t miss what you never had.
 

HamiltonNHL

Parity era hockey is just puck luck + draft luck
Jan 4, 2012
20,126
10,635
Nice :laugh:

Just one question before we end it off, have you really never seen/heard about on-ice sh% and/or PDO?



Kerfoot's QoC isn't changing, nor is Tavares/Marner/Matthews/Nylander's QoC. So what do you mean by factor in QoC? That's a constant. The only thing that can change is their production rate, and 5v5 on-ice sh% tells us that Tavares/Marner have had a very low 5v5 oish% (will rise soon) and that the Mikheyev/Kerfoot have had a very high 5v5 oish% (will drop soon). It's silly to assume Mikheyev/Kerfoot will continue to lead the team in 5v5 production rates.

First line players face higher QoC, so it's harder to generate points.
 

LeafingTheWay

Registered User
May 31, 2014
6,726
1,855
First line players face higher QoC, so it's harder to generate points.

Just because first line players face higher QoC, doesn't mean they produce less. 2nd/3rd line players do not generate more production than elite 1st liners, just look at the scoring. Matthews/Marner/Tavares have never produced less than 3rd liners at 5v5 lol.

For example:
Kerfoot's pts/60 at 5v5: 1.89 (2017-2018) and 1.38 (2018-2019). That fits right into the 2nd/3rd liner rates.
Matthews's pts/60 at 5v5 have been 2.17 (2016-2017), 2.91 pts (2017-2018), 2.76 (2018-2019). That fits right into the elite 1st liner rate.

Guess what their pts/60 are this year. Kerfoot's is 2.26 (1st line rate), while Matthews's is 1.76 (2nd/3rd line rate) :laugh: .

That's exactly why short-sample sizes are useless, and why looking at on-ice sh% and PDO can clearly illustrate production is unsustainable. Kerfoot is due to drop as his oish% is very high and unsustainable compared to the average, while Matthews is due to rise as his oish% is very low and unsustainable compared to the average.
 

LeafingTheWay

Registered User
May 31, 2014
6,726
1,855
Anways, fantastic trade for the Leafs.

Got a top-pairing RHD and a young, developing 3C. I liked Kerfoot in Colorado, and actually think he'd be great as a winger too beside our stars.

Kerfoot - Matthews - Nylander
or
Kerfoot - Tavares - Marner
or
keep him at 3C since we don't need him to be a winger.
 

Blanche Blanche

Torontoooooo
Dec 2, 2017
3,450
3,456
Toronto
What the hell is a modern Leaf? Do you mean run and gun and soft with weak defense? There is nothing modern about that.

You answered your own question lol. Yes. Those are the exact terms used when critiquing the Leafs, especially the players who have been playing for the last 3 years, hence Modern.

Your sentence seems to have a tone meant for Dubas.
 

Wafflewhipper

Registered User
Jan 18, 2014
14,114
5,694
The sum of the whole is greater than the parts.

This team acquiring Kerfoot and with inked contracts to AJ, Kapanen, Marner, etc etc is stronger than it would have been if keeping Kadri meant losing one of the above.

And call it what it is.

Kadri was a good regular season contributor.

He was a massive playoff failure.

He played 6 out of 14 playoff games in two years. And really only a generous 4 games in a 2/3C role. He lost his job to Plekanec when he returned after the first suspension.

He will not be missed in the postseason as you can’t miss what you never had.

Trading Zaitsev and Marleau were the cap drags bro that had to go. The contracts of Kerfoot and Barrie are $1,750,000 more than Kadri’s $4,500,000. Simply bad math there no!
 

kb

Registered User
Aug 28, 2009
15,202
21,507
He wasn’t the secondary piece in the trade for starters. It was about moving away from Gardiner and replacing him at a cost efficient cap hit offensively and getting a younger cheaper third line center that looks like a 50 points and 15-20 goal player that wins draws and skates a bit better and fits the role cheaper for longer.

Kerfoot has the contract not Barrie. Barrie is a rental and not working out particularly well under The Babcock so far. Kerfoot was the main piece! Kadri is the better player and cheaper had they simply moved him to top 6 winger because Kerfoot and Barrie are costing us more right now.$6,250,000 where Kadri was only$4,500,000. Plus we gave up a third and recieved a sixth i believe.

All the cap hit bantering on here over Willy,Matthews and Marner diverted from attention being paid to this trade. I don’t particularly like this deal with Colorado more so than what our core guys got on contract actually.

It would be safe to say that with the emergence of korsh,Timashov,Moore,Goat,Sandin,Lilly,Soupie and others that we could have put together a nice top six/ bottom six without this deal ever happening. I think assets can be managed by moving Barrie and Ceci even before the deadline without worrying to much about deteriorating the competitive balance of the team.

Kadri/Tavares/ Marner
Soupie/Matthews/Nylander could have been our top six for cheaper if we had not done the deal.

Also Willy and Kadri are both better scoring utility centers if injury occured and offered better flexability to the lineup card and cap hit.

I don’t like the deal
OK do a defensive lineup without Barrie and Ceci, and with Kadri. All within the salary cap.
 
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Wafflewhipper

Registered User
Jan 18, 2014
14,114
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OK do a defensive lineup without Barrie and Ceci, and with Kadri. All within the salary cap.

Easy! Just put in Gardiner and Sandin to replace them, or if you prefer, Lilly and sandin. Both are already better defensively than Barrie

Was that supposed to be a tough one or something!
 

Magic Man

Registered User
Mar 30, 2012
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Your Worst Nightmare
Kadri is better and even though he was suspended twice in the playoffs a couple grittier players would really help. That being said Kerfoot is a pretty good player. Still has upside.
 
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nuck

Schrodingers Cat
Aug 18, 2005
11,340
2,422
Younger, cheaper and not as stupid. A lot of hockey to be played tho and when NK is on his game he is really effective but overkill for 3rd line minutes. I would rather have Kadri on a typical night because he is the better package but I am pretty happy with the deal so far. It really comes down to can Kerfoot hit 40 pts on the ice time he is being given the other centers are killing it on the faceoffs and he is a Dubas type of player. so far the issue is Barrie has not been as good as Ceci so far (or Holl for that matter). Given i don't think they can afford to resign him, I would be happy to see him dealt as soon as Dermott is back.
 

indigobuffalo

Portage and Main
Feb 10, 2011
6,790
559
Winnipeg MB
Kadri is currently a better overall player, but Kerfoot is improving his game here so he’s closing the gap a bit.

That said, the question is who is a better 3C and I would argue Kerfoot is a better 3C because Kadri is paid too much for a 3C and will be getting a pay increase when his contract is up, making him even less reasonable as a 3C.

Right now Kadri is $900,000/P and Kerfoot is $500,000/P. So that’s about the argument right there. Kadri is almost double the cap hit per point Kerfoot is.

We’re already paying our top 6 several giant dump trucks full of money. We need the best value possible on the bottom 6.

We have that with Kerfoot. And got great value on Kadri while he was still under contract at a low cap hit. We were never going to re-sign Kadri.
 

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