Prospect Info: Justin Kea (2012, 73rd) – '15-16: Rochester #14 (AHL)

[Woodhouse]

Kea split his first pro season between Rochester and Elmira. He registered 5+7 and 65 PIM in 35 ECHL GP, while also tallying 2+0 and 56 PIM in 26 AHL GP. To reboot his prospect info thread, here's an excerpt from a February D&C article on Kea:

Kea, a third-round draft pick (73rd overall) of the Buffalo Sabres in 2012, was playing in just his seventh game with the Amerks, and fourth since a Feb. 16 promotion from ECHL Elmira.

He doesn't have a point in the American Hockey League but produced 5 goals, 7 assists and 12 points in 35 games for the Jackals. He also had 65 penalty minutes in the ECHL.

"He's a great example of a guy going to Elmira and getting his confidence down there," Cassidy said. "I've talked to Jamie (Russell, the Jackals coach) a lot and they've really liked his progress."

Kea was ejected after his second fight. A game misconduct is mandatory for a second fighting major in the same game (unless the opponent instigates the fight).

Click to read more...

 

[Deleted member 27798]

No points in 20+ AHL games in his 2nd pro season. Any chance he makes it as a 4th liner in the NHL or even a decent AHLer at this point?

 

[Chainshot]

Such a good skater and smart defensive player in junior. Definitely someone to look at and wonder what the hell happened.

 

[Wisent42]

I was just taking a look at the 2012 draft to remind myself about who we picked. Seing Kea picked one slot ahead of Esa Lindell makes me want to cry. And 13 slots behind Kea, St Louis picked Colton Parayko.

So fill me in here: Was Kea a highly thought of player, or was it a case of drafting according to need? (Going in to that draft we basically didn't have any centers)

 

[Myllz]

Kea cut his mullet and therefore lost all his power and potential.

 

[OcAirlines]

I was just taking a look at the 2012 draft to remind myself about who we picked. Seing Kea picked one slot ahead of Esa Lindell makes me want to cry. And 13 slots behind Kea, St Louis picked Colton Parayko.

So fill me in here: Was Kea a highly thought of player, or was it a case of drafting according to need? (Going in to that draft we basically didn't have any centers)

As far as I remember quite a few people were already wondering what the organisation saw in him back when the pick was made, as his numbers were very underwhelming. But since the pick was in the third round and things generally become a crapshoot at this point, most of the users on these boards didn't have that strong of an opinion and were willing to give the organisation the benefit of the doubt. Over the following years there were a few back and forths between the people who were very skeptical and those that were more optimistic, but he was never really a big topic as far as I remember. He actually improved quite a bit over his junior career but given how raw of a prospect he was back when we picked him up, it just wasn't enough.

 

[old kummelweck]

I thought he looked terrific in rookie camp. Not sure what went sideways in the AHL.

 

[ottawah]

I was just taking a look at the 2012 draft to remind myself about who we picked. Seing Kea picked one slot ahead of Esa Lindell makes me want to cry. And 13 slots behind Kea, St Louis picked Colton Parayko.

So fill me in here: Was Kea a highly thought of player, or was it a case of drafting according to need? (Going in to that draft we basically didn't have any centers)

Even in the third round its an entire crap shoot. You can't look at other players drafted close and say what if. Even latter half of first round is a crap shoot.

 

[ottawah]

Such a good skater and smart defensive player in junior. Definitely someone to look at and wonder what the hell happened.

To me exactly what happens in 95% of these cases.

Its the transistion to the next few levels that always get people. Pretty much every defensive star in the NHL was an offensive star at the CHL level, on D and forward. The noted defensive players at the CHL level are usually that because they are not the first line offensive players. I would guarentee McDavid was the best defensive player in the CHL last year, IF he would have been put in that position. But he was not, because he had too much value offensively. But ultimately to me scoring is a function of skill, hands, intelligence. It tells me a lot about a persons overall game. It sounds backwards, but I believe that scoring at the CHL level is probably a better indicator of defensive possibilities (not probabilities) at the next level than defensive play. Ultimately to me the NHL is filled with the most skilled players who can adapt their game to the roles indicative of their overall skillset.

Just look at the best defensive players OHL coaches poll. Pick a year. Let go 10 years ago, established players. Winners are : Robbie Drummond, Cody Bass, Scott Treguna, Mathew Bragg, Jordan Owens, Andrew Gibbons. Recognize any names? Only a handful of NHL games there. And a quick look at other years shows the same trend.

So being the best defensive forward in the CHL usually is a function of an overall lack of skill compared to the upper echelon of the CHL, and that lack of skill ultimately makes it hard for those players to transition to the next level.


There are some, very few. Maybe late bloomers. It is nice when it happens.

 

[OcAirlines]

To me exactly what happens in 95% of these cases.

Its the transistion to the next few levels that always get people. Pretty much every defensive star in the NHL was an offensive star at the CHL level, on D and forward. The noted defensive players at the CHL level are usually that because they are not the first line offensive players. I would guarentee McDavid was the best defensive player in the CHL last year, IF he would have been put in that position. But he was not, because he had too much value offensively. But ultimately to me scoring is a function of skill, hands, intelligence. It tells me a lot about a persons overall game. It sounds backwards, but I believe that scoring at the CHL level is probably a better indicator of defensive possibilities (not probabilities) at the next level than defensive play. Ultimately to me the NHL is filled with the most skilled players who can adapt their game to the roles indicative of their overall skillset.

Just look at the best defensive players OHL coaches poll. Pick a year. Let go 10 years ago, established players. Winners are : Robbie Drummond, Cody Bass, Scott Treguna, Mathew Bragg, Jordan Owens, Andrew Gibbons. Recognize any names? Only a handful of NHL games there. And a quick look at other years shows the same trend.

So being the best defensive forward in the CHL usually is a function of an overall lack of skill compared to the upper echelon of the CHL, and that lack of skill ultimately makes it hard for those players to transition to the next level.


There are some, very few. Maybe late bloomers. It is nice when it happens.

I absolutely agree, I've shared this opinion for quite some time but haven't been able to express it as elegantly as you

Good offensive numbers in juniors don't guarantee that a player will be effective in the NHL or anything like that, but a lack of those numbers usually is a pretty good indicator that a player is missing the general skill level that's necessary to make it in the big leagues, even as a bottom-six player.

 

[Zip15]

I was just taking a look at the 2012 draft to remind myself about who we picked. Seing Kea picked one slot ahead of Esa Lindell makes me want to cry. And 13 slots behind Kea, St Louis picked Colton Parayko.

So fill me in here: Was Kea a highly thought of player, or was it a case of drafting according to need? (Going in to that draft we basically didn't have any centers)

Not just Lindell. Here were some of the players selected soon after Kea was taken at 73:

74 - Esa Lindell, LHD (Dallas)
75 - Jon Gillies, G (Calgary) [I loved Gillies at Providence and thought he did pretty well for USA at the WJC)
78 - Shayne Gostisbehere, LHD (Philadelphia) [Punch me in the face. Please.]
83 - Matt Murray, G (Pittsburgh) [He'll be their starter after they leave MAF unprotected in the expansion draft. Awesome AHL numbers.]
87 - Frederick Andersen, G (Anaheim)

That was a great 3rd round. And we took a player who the most that could be said of him was "he's probably our 4C of the future." In the 3rd round!

 

[flashsabre]

Not just Lindell. Here were some of the players selected soon after Kea was taken at 73:

74 - Esa Lindell, LHD (Dallas)
75 - Jon Gillies, G (Calgary) [I loved Gillies at Providence and thought he did pretty well for USA at the WJC)
78 - Shayne Gostisbehere, LHD (Philadelphia) [Punch me in the face. Please.]
83 - Matt Murray, G (Pittsburgh) [He'll be their starter after they leave MAF unprotected in the expansion draft. Awesome AHL numbers.]
87 - Frederick Andersen, G (Anaheim)

That was a great 3rd round. And we took a player who the most that could be said of him was "he's probably our 4C of the future." In the 3rd round!

Back then though how many people were clamoring to pick those guys? Nobody knew who they were and they weren't thought of as high prospects. Looking back, those guys have developed into great prospects but at the time everyone else passed on them too until the 3rd round.

At the time Kea was looked at as a real project. A big Gaustad type that could really skate, drop the gloves and play a checker's role. He has since been passed by Dupuy and I don't know if he ever sees Buffalo at this point.

 

[DJN21]

Back then though how many people were clamoring to pick those guys? Nobody knew who they were and they weren't thought of as high prospects. Looking back, those guys have developed into great prospects but at the time everyone else passed on them too until the 3rd round.

At the time Kea was looked at as a real project. A big Gaustad type that could really skate, drop the gloves and play a checker's role. He has since been passed by Dupuy and I don't know if he ever sees Buffalo at this point.

I was always a bit surprised that Ghost fell that far. I personally had him higher at the time though those inklings work out about all of 3% of the time when evaluating post 1st round draft material lol.

 

[CaseyMitts37]

Not just Lindell. Here were some of the players selected soon after Kea was taken at 73:

74 - Esa Lindell, LHD (Dallas)
75 - Jon Gillies, G (Calgary) [I loved Gillies at Providence and thought he did pretty well for USA at the WJC)
78 - Shayne Gostisbehere, LHD (Philadelphia) [Punch me in the face. Please.]
83 - Matt Murray, G (Pittsburgh) [He'll be their starter after they leave MAF unprotected in the expansion draft. Awesome AHL numbers.]
87 - Frederick Andersen, G (Anaheim)

That was a great 3rd round. And we took a player who the most that could be said of him was "he's probably our 4C of the future." In the 3rd round!

Colton Parayko at 86 too