Value of: Justin Holl

[Duke16]

Dubas made comments regarding Dermott shifting to the right, and the Bogosian signing is a non-league minimum depth guy, so there is a lot of fan speculation that Holl might be on the outs.

Holl is signed for 3 more seasons at a $2M AAV. He was essentially an NHL rookie this year and put up fantastic results on a pairing with Jake Muzzin in a shutdown role. He was a good complementary fit with Muzzin, but he is more of a bottom pair guy.

Based on the Johnsson return, this could easily end up another sell-low situation, so its basically a matter of who could have use for him and who can make the best offer.

*Not establishing an ask here or expecting tremendous value, so honest replies would be appreciated. I know that can be a rarity around here.*

Click to read more...

 

[Dr Danglefest]

He doesn’t have standalone value so I’d expect less or equal to that of AJ

 

[Dr Danglefest]

Also is this cap related? Why not just keep him on as the 7th Dman in case of injury?

 

[mouser]

Was nice to see Holl finally have some success last season. At the same time we’re talking about a player turning 29 in a few months who hasn’t been able to break into the NHL until last season. Signed three years to a contract that’s slightly high for teams shopping on a bargain 3rd pairing D. The partial NTC is a bit unusual as well.

I’m sure he could be traded, not sure if could return much in this unusual offseason though.

 

[Duke16]

Also is this cap related? Why not just keep him on as the 7th Dman in case of injury?

Purely cap related. It's not even a guarantee he goes, and I think the Leafs like him, but it just might be an option to increase their flexibility a little bit.

They'll want Dermott in there in an expanded role. Lehtonen and Bogosian will play a good amount. Sandin and Liljegren will get their reps. All 5 are cheaper than Holl.

 

[Duke16]

He doesn’t have standalone value so I’d expect less or equal to that of AJ

That's totally fair and might not be the biggest issue.

Maybe it ends up close to Nutivaara? Holl is cheaper, right-handed, and actually does have a nice Top 4 stint to his name, so I'd hope to get a little better than Cliff Pu in return.

 

[voxel]

That's totally fair and might not be the biggest issue.

Maybe it ends up close to Nutivaara? Holl is cheaper, right-handed, and actually does have a nice Top 4 stint to his name, so I'd hope to get a little better than Cliff Pu in return.

$2M for a bottom-pair D is not a great deal. He's already 28 year so he's no spring chicken or young prospect.

 

[kabidjan18]

Just don't trade him. He was raised in the system, and while unexceptional, he's fairly competent. He's the type of defensemen that, if you don't raise him in system, you'll just end up paying more to acquire a similar guy later.

 

[ToDavid]

Just don't trade him. He was raised in the system, and while unexceptional, he's fairly competent. He's the type of defensemen that, if you don't raise him in system, you'll just end up paying more to acquire a similar guy later.

The problem is, better and cheaper players are getting stuck behind him. I like Holl he is a decent #4/#5 but you're right, unexceptional. His most notable attribute appears to be his ability to gel really well with Muzzin. But Dermott is better, and much younger with a lot of upside, so he needs to get into the top 4 even if it's on his off-side.

You could drop Holl down to the third pair but both Sandin and Lehtonen look very promising. Holl is clearly better than Bogosian but they didn't sign him to sit in the press box all year, there's clearly an aim to have a "role player" like that on the third pair.

He's just the odd man out and we don't have the luxury to spend $2 million on an odd man out.

 

[kabidjan18]

The problem is, better and cheaper players are getting stuck behind him. I like Holl he is a decent #4/#5 but you're right, unexceptional. His most notable attribute appears to be his ability to gel really well with Muzzin. But Dermott is better, and much younger with a lot of upside, so he needs to get into the top 4 even if it's on his off-side.

You could drop Holl down to the third pair but both Sandin and Lehtonen look very promising. Holl is clearly better than Bogosian but they didn't sign him to sit in the press box all year, there's clearly an aim to have a "role player" like that on the third pair.

He's just the odd man out and we don't have the luxury to spend $2 million on an odd man out.

I don't think Dermott is better. I think Holl will be the 4, Lehtonen the 5, and Bogosian the 6. If Lehtonen isn't good enough in his own end, Toronto will have to acquire another blue-liner, maybe at the deadline. He's a bit of a mystery box because he's coming from Europe. You don't want Bogosian to be the 4 either.

Dermott is the defenseman that hockey analysts thought would be the wave of the future like 3-4 years ago. This elite skater, agile and fast, rather elusive, good at disrupting, good at moving the puck. Like an inferior version of Sam Girard. And I think this is a common problem with Leafs defensemen. Is that the Leafs development tried to be a bit futuristic, and instead fell a bit behind the curve.

The problem is that this is not at all borne out to be the reality. And while I believe it to be true in all phases of the season, it's most obvious in the playoffs. I love the quote from Bob Myers, a tweet which Kyle Dubas actually liked. And he said "in the playoffs, your first move is gone", because teams have more time to film prep, to draw on the board, etc. So a lot of the plays that teams typically like to run, or moves that individual players typically like to execute, are not available in the playoffs. So in the playoffs you end up getting a lot of what I'll call "basic hockey." Battle for the puck in the corner, chip it to the point, winger overlaps, chips it to center ice, center comes along, picks up the puck at center ice, dumps it in, chases, battles in the next corner, and the other team tries to do the same. Offensive team wins it in the corner, passes back to the point, D to D, shoot from the point screen in front hope for a deflection, a rebound, a screen, a dirty goal. This is basic hockey because it's the easiest form of hockey to execute. It's very low percentage play. But when a team has the time to look at tape on you, figure out your tendencies, it's much harder to string 3-4 tape to tape passes in a row, because there's an additional element of ease of execution which factors in. It's much easier to just chip to an area and chase than to complete tape to tape passes. And you may still get some "advanced" goals, but most of your goals will be basic.

When both teams are just trying to slug it out, certain aspects of the game for a defenseman become absolutely vital. Probably the first and foremost is the ability to clear your own crease. Battling for position in front of the net is massive, and you see a lot of times forwards and defensemen will be having a mixed martial arts battle in front of the goalie just so that the goalie will or will not have a small window to see the puck through. And not just battling the in the front of the net, but also in the low slot, sometimes in the high slot. Another aspect is winning 50-50 pucks, winning battles, winning scrums. So that your team will get the chance to chip it to the point and your winger can chip it out. It could be in the corner, it could be at the point, it could be at center ice. The defenseman might activate and battle in their corner. Another aspect is paying the price. And by paying the price I mean shot blocking. Guys like Alex Edler and Chris Tanev really personified this.

So I think with Dermott, there's a mismatch of what you want a defenseman to be good at and what he's good at. He's pretty good at playing his style of hockey, trying to move the puck a lot, be effective in transition. But somewhat ironically, the teams that actually won rounds in the playoffs (Colorado aside) were terrible at moving the puck in transition. Many of their defensemen flat out couldn't skate with the puck and could barely move the puck by passing. A few exceptions. But that was the case for the vast majority. I think, of course I can't be sure, but I think Dubas is kinda wisening up to that fact that the style of hockey they expected to be dominant has not been. If he is, then a guy like Holl is worth 2 million. Is he basically being a goaltender by blocking as many shots as David Savard? No. Is able to blow up opposing forwards in front of the net like Ryan McDonagh or Jamie Oleksiak can? No. Is he terrifying to battle in the corner? Maybe not. But he can do all of those things pretty well, even if he's not necessarily elite at any of them. And his ability to do that stuff gives him a lot of value.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

Maybe Vancouver would be interested. They gambled letting Tanev and Stecher go

 

[seanlinden]

Dubas made the comment about Dermott being on the right before Bogosian was signed, and it was specifically prefaced with something along the lines of "based on what we have right now".

That being said, Holl was an excellent complimentary guy in the top 4 last year. He's locked up through what will likely be his prime for $2m. There is zero reason to consider trading him.