Value of: Justin Faulk to an Atlantic Division team

[tarheelhockey]

I don't know if it's having a quality, veteran defensive partner beside him (de Haan) or better conditioning,

That's exactly what it is. It's not a coincidence that Faulk's game fell off when Ron Hainsey went away, and he suddenly had to babysit Noah Hanifin and Haydn Fleury. He's never been the kind of player to carry his partner... that's just not his function in the lineup.

De Haan was an incredibly smart pickup. He gives Faulk that much-needed security blanket and stabilizes the middle pairing. Faulk's resurgence is directly connected to the amount of cover that CDH quietly gives him.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I mean how much defense is he being asked to play when he is starting 65% of his zone starts at even strength in the offensive zone....

he is the most sheltered defender zone wise on Carolina and the Leafs couldn't give him close to that level of sheltering in toronto.

Much of Faulk's inconsistency defensively in recent years was a function of his play in transition, not defending down low in his own zone. An offensive deployment doesn't mean what you think it means in that context. He's being tasked with defending the counterattack off the rush more now and he looks like a different player doing so.

 

[GoldiFox]

Or your just assuming a lack of knowledge. Obviously they dont include neutral zone starts as they wouldn't have a significant effect either way. When your talking zone start % it is usually assumed your not talking about neutral zone starts...

So he starts 35-40% in the offensive zone, 40% in the neutral and like 20% in the defensive? Still very sheltered lol..

Your quote was:

I mean how much defense is he being asked to play when he is starting 65% of his zone starts at even strength in the offensive zone....

That is categorically false. Faulk is not "starting 65% of his zone starts in the offensive zone".

So why does Faulk have the highest offensive zone start percentage of any Carolina defender in the top 6?

Funny that you think my points are bad when you didnt even read what I said lol.. nice try though.

I addressed this in my second point, it just went over your head as I feared.

Toronto Team ZSR = 47%
Morgan Rielly ZSR = 58%

Morgan Rielly is being "sheltered" 11% relative to his team.

Carolina Team ZSR = 57%
Justin Faulk ZSR = 65%

Justin Faulk is only being "sheltered" 7.5% relative to his team

Morgan Rielly is being sheltered significantly more than Justin Faulk. Of both Carolina and Toronto, Rielly is by far the most sheltered defenseman of the bunch. You have obliterated your own point and don't even realize it. The baseline of an analysis matters.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Your quote was:


That is categorically false. Faulk is not "starting 65% of his zone starts in the offensive zone".



I addressed this in my second point, it just went over your head as I feared.

Toronto Team ZSR = 47%
Morgan Rielly ZSR = 58%

Morgan Rielly is being "sheltered" 11% relative to his team.

Carolina Team ZSR = 57%
Justin Faulk ZSR = 65%

Justin Faulk is only being "sheltered" 7.5% relative to his team

Morgan Rielly is being sheltered significantly more than Justin Faulk. Of both Carolina and Toronto, Rielly is by far the most sheltered defenseman of the bunch. You have obliterated your own point and don't even realize it. The baseline of an analysis matters.

Yes he is getting 65% zone start usage in the offensive zone relative to the defensive zone. It is semantics.

You didnt address anything lol, you said Carolina start a ton of zone starts in the offensive zone which I know. Had the exact same argument last year about Hanifin. That doesnt change the fact Faulk receives more offensive zone starts by a pretty considerable amount than anyone (other than his partner) on the team.

Here is the funny part. I didnt obliterate my point at all. Just because I'm saying Faulk is being sheltered zone usage this year, which he is, doesnt make it a moot point because Rielly is also receiving zone sheltering.

That is just HF board logic whereby you cant make a point that could be used to devalue one of your own players.


Morgan rielly has been receiving very very strange zone usage this year largely due to hainsey playing horribly. With Z and Gardiner receiving roughly 35% offensive zone usage the average is pretty swayed as Rielly receives a similar zone usage as the third pairing.

Also like how you rounded up for all the leaf stats but used decimal points for Carolina players. Really shows a strong argument LOL

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Much of Faulk's inconsistency defensively in recent years was a function of his play in transition, not defending down low in his own zone. An offensive deployment doesn't mean what you think it means in that context. He's being tasked with defending the counterattack off the rush more now and he looks like a different player doing so.

I'm glad he has turned it around, I always thought he was a pretty good player.

However, relative to last year he has certainly been put in a position to succeed both partner wise and zone usage wise. Seems to me like he is getting similar usage to Hanifin last year.

 

[ottomaddox]

All those leaf players are untouchable when it comes to Faulk though. They may not all be untouchable in other trades where the value is better but in this scenario not a chance the Canes would return those kind of players for Faulk

No. Not all trades are 1 for 1, but that all depends on Dubas. Dubas might value Faulk more than someone on our team.

Trades are not a result of 1 = 1

Someone might be unhappy, someone might be asking for more money, there might not be anyone bidding, etc.

If it is Nylander that is being traded then no leaf fan will ever be satisfied with a return.

 

[ACC1224]

Does Faulk for Marleau + 2nd & 3rd make sense? Is it fair to both teams?

Marleau = NMC

 

[tarheelhockey]

Last year people picked on Hanifin's zone usage. My reply was always -- what do you expect? The other two LHD are Slavin and Fleury, both shutdown guys. Why would Hanifin NOT get a lot of the offensive starts in that context? There's literally no reason to start him in the defensive zone.

This year, same thing with Faulk. The pairings are Slavin-Hamilton, CDH-Faulk, TVR-Pesce. In a defensive situation, why would you NOT put one of the other pairs on the ice? Going with CDH-Faulk in a defensive draw is just wasting the card you would want to play when the puck gets to the end of the ice.

Of course the larger point here is that Faulk isn't anything special defensively and he has stretches where he struggles (particularly when paired with a Hanifin type partner). I don't disagree with that point, but I do think people are taking a statistic and not giving it the proper amount of thought and context. In both Hanifin's and Faulk's cases, there was a lot more going on than "sheltering". More like common sense about how anyone would deploy defensive specialists on other pairings.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Marleau = NMC

On the assumption he were willing to waive NTC...?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

On the assumption he were willing to waive NTC...?

I think that's a bad assumption. He signed with the Leafs because he wanted to play there and they are a legitimate contender. Carolina is not.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I think that's a bad assumption. He signed with the Leafs because he wanted to play there and they are a legitimate contender. Carolina is not.

That's a given...this is all a hypothetical from Armchair GM's on a forum. I'm just trying to establish the value for both teams, ergo, is it fair?

 

[ACC1224]

On the assumption he were willing to waive NTC...?

Why would he want to do that?
He moved his family cross country from the only place they have known.
Not seeing any incentive for him to do that.

 

[bleedgreen]

Faulk is being featured as the Canes best offensive defenseman right now. That would be a good reason to start him in the offensive zone a lot.

If you have more defensive minded pairings, wouldn’t you start them in the d zone and start the Faulk pairing in the offensive zone as much as you could? How does this make him a bad defenseman? Sounds more like coaching 101. Sheltered....

 

[Svechhammer]

Faulk is being featured as the Canes best offensive defenseman right now. That would be a good reason to start him in the offensive zone a lot.

If you have more defensive minded pairings, wouldn’t you start them in the d zone and start the Faulk pairing in the offensive zone as much as you could? How does this make him a bad defenseman? Sounds more like coaching 101. Sheltered....

And that 'sheltered' thinking is also ignoring that Faulk is actually playing some solid defense on his own this year. He's already single handedly kept the puck out of the net a couple times, doesn't really allow his line to get torched on the ice, and he's contributing a heck of a lot offensively. He's effectively the kind of player we've long expected out of him, but overshadowed because of the other guys on the roster.

 

[Unsustainable]

That's exactly what it is. It's not a coincidence that Faulk's game fell off when Ron Hainsey went away, and he suddenly had to babysit Noah Hanifin and Haydn Fleury. He's never been the kind of player to carry his partner... that's just not his function in the lineup.

De Haan was an incredibly smart pickup. He gives Faulk that much-needed security blanket and stabilizes the middle pairing. Faulk's resurgence is directly connected to the amount of cover that CDH quietly gives him.

Same before with Sekera

 

[tony d]

Nylander for Faulk straight up work? Or would 1 of the teams have to add here?

 

[Danny1237]

Carolina is winning and super entertaining to watch. They likely have to make a decision at some point, but they really aren't in a rush to do it in season unless something they really covet becomes available.

The Leafs aren't moving those types of pieces yet, but it could change if Nylander's contract hits a real impasse near the end of November, then Carolina seems to be a team that is aggressive and could very well offer a package centered around Faulk.

What is more likely, is Carolina can just be patient, play things out, and this summer decide if they would rather extend Falk, and potentially look for a forward upgrade using Pesce, or trade Faulk and get value for him from a team that will want to extend him. Either way, since they aren't up against any real deadline in the short term to max out the value they get on Faulk, I don't see them as being in a rush to move him for pieces they don't highly covet.

I am a little curious as to what the Carolina scouts were looking at in Toronto, as I know they would be highly interested in Nylander from the rumors out there, but if they were scouting Toronto's line up it likely means that there was talk of some other players, either because there maybe were some preliminary talks on a bigger trade, or the talks about Nylander lead to at least a discussion on something likely smaller.

 

[Svechhammer]

Nylander for Faulk straight up work? Or would 1 of the teams have to add here?

Its probably honestly closer than TML fans want to admit, but once again, that's also ignoring that Faulk has reverted to form and is actually playing solid 2 way defense this year. In terms of Carolina, he's probably the most expendable 'good' defenseman we have, but we'd likely have to throw in a pick or 2 to make it happen, and we'd likely dangle 2019 Buffalo 2nd rounder in it.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Its probably honestly closer than TML fans want to admit, but once again, that's also ignoring that Faulk has reverted to form and is actually playing solid 2 way defense this year. In terms of Carolina, he's probably the most expendable 'good' defenseman we have, but we'd likely have to throw in a pick or 2 to make it happen, and we'd likely dangle 2019 Buffalo 2nd rounder in it.

There are 2 issues with Faulk that make it less attractive to the Leafs. Looking at is strictly from a Leafs POV:

1) Even though he's improve defensively this year, he's still a better offensive defenseman. Leafs don't really need that, they need more of a Pesce type as they score enough already.
2) Faulk is a UFA in 2 seasons. The same reason we Canes fans didn't want to trade Hanifin for 2 years of Duchene, the Leafs would have the same concern, particularly given what Faulk might command in Free Agency while the Leafs still have to fit Marner and Matthews.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Morgan Rielly is being sheltered significantly more than Justin Faulk. Of both Carolina and Toronto, Rielly is by far the most sheltered defenseman of the bunch. You have obliterated your own point and don't even realize it. The baseline of an analysis matters.

LOL.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

A Faulk base is only viable if this goes down to the wire, the market is soft in terms of centerpiece quality and Dubas decides to make the move regardless to end the drama and/or not have a dead asset on his hands as he positions the Leafs for a cup run. The add(s) would still have to be healthy, perhaps rivaling Faulk in value. I'm not holding my breath.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

That's a given...this is all a hypothetical from Armchair GM's on a forum. I'm just trying to establish the value for both teams, ergo, is it fair?

The value is bad too. While any team likes 2nd and 3rd round picks, for the Canes to trade Faulk the player coming back would have to be to someone they really covet. A 53 year old Patrick Marleau making a lot of money this year and next isn't that.

 

[Brock Radunske]

Leafs untouchables for Faulk are Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Kadri, Nylander, Rielly, Andersen.

There is literally no other player or prospect on the Leafs that the Canes would be interested in trading for.

You can make an offer based on picks and prospects but that’s not what the Canes are looking for either.

I agree 100%. Its just not a fit.

 

[Leaf Fans]

You might want to ask Dubas why he called about Faulk over the summer, then. But I guess what would Toronto's GM know about what his team needs.

By all accounts it was a very short discussion. I suppose, though I have no evidence, that the Canes were using HF board evaluations.

 

[MinJaBen]

By all accounts it was a very short discussion. I suppose, though I have no evidence, that the Canes were using HF board evaluations.

Sure, maybe you can believe our GM was asking for Matthews if that makes you feel better, but it still doesn’t change the fact that the Leafs GM called about Faulk. So when y’all start declaring that the Leafs have no need for Faulk, you should probably all remember that your GM doesn’t agree with you.