Proposal: Justin Braun to Flyers

Starat327

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See, that's where the issue comes in. Take the Flyers' situation into account. Our core, moving forward, will be Provorov/Gostisbehere/Sanheim/Myers/Hart/Couturier/Konecny/Patrick/Frost/Farabee and whoever else slots in (Lindblom, Aube-Kubel, Vorobyov, Rubtsov, whoever.) G, Jake, JVR, and Simmer are older, and will be complimentary parts by the time we're truly ready to compete.

Couts is 26. Ghost is 25. The next oldest core pieces are 22 right now. Trading away someone young, who we expect to grow with the team and fill a critical role for years, is counterproductive. Meanwhile, the Sharks are looking for someone who's good now, because your window is now. Simmonds would have a lot more value to you, as you rightly pointed out, but to us, the value proposition is inverted, because Simmer's 30. He's the 7th oldest guy on our roster; as much as he's a great guy and still has a lot to give, he's not going to be there when we're really competing.... and therein lies the rub, because neither will Braun, who's also 30. For the Flyers, it's much easier to part with Simmonds than with Frost or Myers; they have more value to us, since their value comes into play when we most need it to.

What I'd really like to do is make the deal bigger by moving to better secondary parts: Braun+Donskoi for Simmonds+Gudas, who is more than a bottom-pairing guy, and the only expendable defenseman who has a reasonable contract. Donskoi will be around long enough to provide us additional value, and Braun fills a slot for a while; Simmer's a big add for you, and Gudas could conceivably step into your second pairing if you need him to; he's overqualified to be on the third pair (unless he's playing scared.) If the contract is an issue, the Flyers could retain on Simmonds; that does no harm to us, and it brings him down to about what Donskoi's paid. Gudas, meanwhile, represents a savings over Braun's deal.


I agree with this, but i have a hard time believing that any SJ fan is going to be willing to move from Donskoi - at least from what i've seen.
 

Pinkfloyd

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If the Flyers don't have a 3C to trade and they don't really then Braun is not likely to be available for trade until the off-season. Afterwards, probably a 2nd and a 3rd would work but by then it's likely the Flyers won't need him.
 

TheWayToRefJose

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I'd go gudas+3rd for braun. Flyers get a little more veteran savvy and san jose gets a little more snarl. Both teams are looking to make a push this year so i don't think a straight picks and prospects deal would work. Maybe sawp out the pick for a prospect say aube kubel who is close to nhl ready but not as sexy as the top end guys
Because SJ is looking to win a cup, they say no. No point in downgrading the defense for a 3rd round pick that does nothing to help the team now and likely doesn't even make the NHL, especially with SJS 3rd round drsdt history.
 
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tictactoe

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So Frost is worth more than that entire package? The 2nds wash out so your saying 2 roster pieces, a recent 1st rd pick, a good prospect, a 1st and a conditional 2nd is not more valuable than frost and a 4th? Never said frost for Braun was a good deal cause it's not but to say that frost is worth more than that offer is idiotic
I am not saying all that .. you are... I am simply asking which one of the clowns better prospect than Frost...
 

CapnZin

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A 3rd? So a guy who in all likelihood will never play in the NHL? We'll get back to ya...
Rubtsov has more upside than Josh Norris, even with Rubtsovs downyear, the only thing is that his floor is lower. With the prospects shaping out, Couturier, Patrick, Frost, Vorobyev, and O’Brien push him out of that C fold. It’s ok if you don’t know who he is, I also understand you’re trying to start a pissing contest with comments like that, but coming out of 2016, Rubtsov was ranked only behind Matthews in 2-way play. He isn’t flashy, but when you watch him play, you see how smart he is on the puck and how responsible his stick and positioning are. He won’t be a 40-50 Point player in the NHL I don’t think, but you’d be getting a real good defensive player with offensive upside.

Samuel Ersson is a Swedish goaltender. Think of Tristan Jarry coming out of the draft or Ben Bishop when they were first drafted. They excelled in 3 aspects- vision, positioning, and control. They lacked one thing, as does Ersson: Athleticism. Goalies are rarely seen as an A candidate during their draft year, WSH was the last to receive one, but Ersson was graded as a “B”. That’s a second/third round talent when regarding F and Dmen. You can always wait to draft goalies since they take time to develop. Erssons ceiling may just be a starter, but his floor is easily a serviceable backup.

For an aging and declining stop gap #4/5 for the Flyers... you’d be lucky to receive an offer... where the floor is:— just to point out... this is the floor. This is when they don’t tap their potential.

3rd pick + 4th line defensive forward/PK specialist + serviceable backup.

That’s a very comparable offer to

Melker Karlsson + Antoine Bibeau + 3rd

For someone like Braun. The only thing is that they’ve kinda reached where they’re going to be.

And again... is Braun worth more than that... yep! There’s one problem.

Philly isn’t going to pay an arm and a leg for a stop gap Dman who we don’t need in a year or two.
 

Juxtaposer

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I am not saying all that .. you are... I am simply asking which one of the clowns better prospect than Frost...

And he never claimed that any of those pieces were more valuable than Frost. He was simply responding to the absolutely ludicrous claim that Frost was worth more than the entire package we gave for Karlsson.
 

Ricky Bobby

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See, that's where the issue comes in. Take the Flyers' situation into account. Our core, moving forward, will be Provorov/Gostisbehere/Sanheim/Myers/Hart/Couturier/Konecny/Patrick/Frost/Farabee and whoever else slots in (Lindblom, Aube-Kubel, Vorobyov, Rubtsov, whoever.) G, Jake, JVR, and Simmer are older, and will be complimentary parts by the time we're truly ready to compete.

Couts is 26. Ghost is 25. The next oldest core pieces are 22 right now. Trading away someone young, who we expect to grow with the team and fill a critical role for years, is counterproductive. Meanwhile, the Sharks are looking for someone who's good now, because your window is now. Simmonds would have a lot more value to you, as you rightly pointed out, but to us, the value proposition is inverted, because Simmer's 30. He's the 7th oldest guy on our roster; as much as he's a great guy and still has a lot to give, he's not going to be there when we're really competing.... and therein lies the rub, because neither will Braun, who's also 30. For the Flyers, it's much easier to part with Simmonds than with Frost or Myers; they have more value to us, since their value comes into play when we most need it to.

What I'd really like to do is make the deal bigger by moving to better secondary parts: Braun+Donskoi for Simmonds+Gudas, who is more than a bottom-pairing guy, and the only expendable defenseman who has a reasonable contract. Donskoi will be around long enough to provide us additional value, and Braun fills a slot for a while; Simmer's a big add for you, and Gudas could conceivably step into your second pairing if you need him to; he's overqualified to be on the third pair (unless he's playing scared.) If the contract is an issue, the Flyers could retain on Simmonds; that does no harm to us, and it brings him down to about what Donskoi's paid. Gudas, meanwhile, represents a savings over Braun's deal.

As a non-Flyers I truly believe the Flyers could be ready to compete as early as next season which would have G, Jake and JVR all part of the core.

G, Jake and JVR are all 29/30 and with the low impact type of game they all play should have at least 3 more seasons very good seasons left in them. Simmonds is another story because of being a pending UFA and I don't he'll hold up well into his 30's with the miles on his body.

Having said all that, Braun isn't the guy they should be dealing for. Flyers should be looking to develop Sanhiem and Myers as well as trying to get Gudas back on track.

But who else can boast a good core like the Flyers already have (good enough to make the playoffs) that has a few years of high end performance left well also having such a deep crop of very good youngsters. Patrick, Hart, Frost in particular could be very good players as early next season.
 

ponder719

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As a non-Flyers I truly believe the Flyers could be ready to compete as early as next season which would have G, Jake and JVR all part of the core.

G, Jake and JVR are all 29/30 and with the low impact type of game they all play should have at least 3 more seasons very good seasons left in them. Simmonds is another story because of being a pending UFA and I don't he'll hold up well into his 30's with the miles on his body.

Having said all that, Braun isn't the guy they should be dealing for. Flyers should be looking to develop Sanhiem and Myers as well as trying to get Gudas back on track.

But who else can boast a good core like the Flyers already have (good enough to make the playoffs) that has a few years of high end performance left well also having such a deep crop of very good youngsters. Patrick, Hart, Frost in particular could be very good players as early next season.

I love the optimism, and I hope you're right, but the issue is goaltending, and more specifically, timing. Carter Hart is knocking on the door, but he's likely still going to spend most of this year in the AHL, and it's so rare for a rookie goalie to backstop a team to a Cup (Dryden, Roy, Ward, Niemi, Murray 2X somehow) that I can't help but think the window opens for real in 2020-21, at which point we're talking mid-30s for all those guys. You're right that they play a low impact game, but even with that, they'll definitely be coming out of their prime by the time we're really set to go. If things break our way, though, that'd be great.

I agree with you that we really need to focus on developing our existing blueliners, but if Braun's replacing Gudas, that's not a major change in age range, which makes it a better fit. I still don't know that this is the way to go, anyway, but it's not the worst idea I've heard for a back end improvement.
 

Sysreq

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I agree with this, but i have a hard time believing that any SJ fan is going to be willing to move from Donskoi - at least from what i've seen.

Donskoi is a good player, but injury prone and due a payday. I would rather keep Timo and Labanc, due to their age, RFA status, and higher ceilings.

I fully expect San Jose to move Donskoi at the deadline for pieces used to acquire a better top-6 winger (Panarin).
 
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tictactoe

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And he never claimed that any of those pieces were more valuable than Frost.
I did, I claimed it... I do not know if they are more valuable... It is depth that can be easily obtained during off season through UFA. ooo 3 line center... ooo top 5 d-men.. bla bla bla

He was simply responding to the absolutely ludicrous claim that Frost was worth more than the entire package we gave for Karlsson.
I think what that poster was trying to say that Senators did not a single real deal type of prospect. Great job by SJ.
 

Ricky Bobby

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I love the optimism, and I hope you're right, but the issue is goaltending, and more specifically, timing. Carter Hart is knocking on the door, but he's likely still going to spend most of this year in the AHL, and it's so rare for a rookie goalie to backstop a team to a Cup (Dryden, Roy, Ward, Niemi, Murray 2X somehow) that I can't help but think the window opens for real in 2020-21, at which point we're talking mid-30s for all those guys. You're right that they play a low impact game, but even with that, they'll definitely be coming out of their prime by the time we're really set to go. If things break our way, though, that'd be great.

I agree with you that we really need to focus on developing our existing blueliners, but if Braun's replacing Gudas, that's not a major change in age range, which makes it a better fit. I still don't know that this is the way to go, anyway, but it's not the worst idea I've heard for a back end improvement.

20-21 is more likely but Giroux and Voracek will still be very valuable at that point. JVR should as well.

I'm not as worried about Hart being a rookie as you are. I think the rookie goaltender part is overplayed because there's only 30 goalies in the league and only a few rookie goalies a year and most not nearly as good of a prospect as Hart nor coming onto as good of a team. Martin Jones also went to the finals 2 seasons well not having played much more than a rookie. Connor Hellybuck went deep in the playoffs in his 2nd full season.

The Flyers are also in a very good position with the cap so I wouldn't discount them adding a big-time player next off-season.

Overall, I don't see them as the team paying a premium for Braun. Braun makes most sense for a team that's ready to contend now and also closer to the cap this year and next.

Flyers should concentrate on developing their own version of Braun level player this season in Sanhiem and Myers who could contribute for a long time.
 

Pinkfloyd

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Rubtsov has more upside than Josh Norris, even with Rubtsovs downyear, the only thing is that his floor is lower. With the prospects shaping out, Couturier, Patrick, Frost, Vorobyev, and O’Brien push him out of that C fold. It’s ok if you don’t know who he is, I also understand you’re trying to start a pissing contest with comments like that, but coming out of 2016, Rubtsov was ranked only behind Matthews in 2-way play. He isn’t flashy, but when you watch him play, you see how smart he is on the puck and how responsible his stick and positioning are. He won’t be a 40-50 Point player in the NHL I don’t think, but you’d be getting a real good defensive player with offensive upside.

Samuel Ersson is a Swedish goaltender. Think of Tristan Jarry coming out of the draft or Ben Bishop when they were first drafted. They excelled in 3 aspects- vision, positioning, and control. They lacked one thing, as does Ersson: Athleticism. Goalies are rarely seen as an A candidate during their draft year, WSH was the last to receive one, but Ersson was graded as a “B”. That’s a second/third round talent when regarding F and Dmen. You can always wait to draft goalies since they take time to develop. Erssons ceiling may just be a starter, but his floor is easily a serviceable backup.

For an aging and declining stop gap #4/5 for the Flyers... you’d be lucky to receive an offer... where the floor is:— just to point out... this is the floor. This is when they don’t tap their potential.

3rd pick + 4th line defensive forward/PK specialist + serviceable backup.

That’s a very comparable offer to

Melker Karlsson + Antoine Bibeau + 3rd

For someone like Braun. The only thing is that they’ve kinda reached where they’re going to be.

And again... is Braun worth more than that... yep! There’s one problem.

Philly isn’t going to pay an arm and a leg for a stop gap Dman who we don’t need in a year or two.

Except the actual trade market has recent history that suggests Braun would go for significantly higher than that. Braun is getting a minimum of a 2nd round pick and a prospect as most top fours that have been dealt have gotten. You can say that Philly may not pay that price and that's fine but GM's value top four RHD, especially defensive ones, a lot higher than you're showing.
 

CapnZin

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Except the actual trade market has recent history that suggests Braun would go for significantly higher than that. Braun is getting a minimum of a 2nd round pick and a prospect as most top fours that have been dealt have gotten. You can say that Philly may not pay that price and that's fine but GM's value top four RHD, especially defensive ones, a lot higher than you're showing.
I never once said that his value is low... in more than one of my posts I stated he has higher value than what I am offering.

My thing was that Philly won’t pay the premium for a T4 RHD as a stop gap.
 
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Flyerfan47

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The only immediate need the Sharks have at the moment is an established 3C. But I don’t know if the Flyers are in a position to provide that in a trade for Braun.

In lieu of a 3C the Sharks might be interested in a futures package to offset some of the assets they’ve recently traded away.

How’s this sound:

:flyers
Braun

:sharks
Frost/Myers
2019 2nd
2020 4th

You must be kidding me. You'd be lucky to get the 2nd and 4th off of me for a 2nd paring defenseman, Which we already have enough D.
 

BillR10

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I did, I claimed it... I do not know if they are more valuable... It is depth that can be easily obtained during off season through UFA. ooo 3 line center... ooo top 5 d-men.. bla bla bla

I think what that poster was trying to say that Senators did not a single real deal type of prospect. Great job by SJ.

The original statement was a claim that the package of Frost, a 2nd and a 4th is more valuable than the entire package given up for Karlsson which is ludicrous. Yes, Frost is more valuable than any individual piece but let's be honest what had he really done to justify saying hes more valuable than a 1st, a former 1st, a good prospect, 2 nhl roster players and a conditional 2nd? That is exactly what I was pointing out.
 

captainpaxil

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Because SJ is looking to win a cup, they say no. No point in downgrading the defense for a 3rd round pick that does nothing to help the team now and likely doesn't even make the NHL, especially with SJS 3rd round drsdt history.

I see it as more a matter of fit and style adjustment than a definitive downgrade hence only a 3rd rder. Gudas has a little more in the tank as well extending the window.
 

SnarkAttack

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I see it as more a matter of fit and style adjustment than a definitive downgrade hence only a 3rd rder. Gudas has a little more in the tank as well extending the window.

The Sharks are not trading Braun for any package with Gudas in it. It takes any value away from the reason they would actually trade Braun.

In addition, our forwards get hurt often enough without having Gudas on the practice ice around them.
 
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Flukeshot

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When IPro is playing with Ghost he involved too much in physical game. In last season he took 131 hits - no one in Flyers took more. This indicates he doesn`t have much physical support when they play together with Ghost - it`s obvious cause Shayne`s style of play. Everyone knows Ivan is Iron man, but why we need to risk with him? He plays 25+ minutes, creates offensive, play so much in PK, and take so many physical aspects is really risky.

Myers? Probably. In two years... Is he ready to play 20+ minutes every night against top-3 right now? Doubtfully

I agree. It would be great to have Braun take some of the harder physical defensive duties. But ideally MacD or Gudas goes too.

Braun could hand off minutes to Myers over the next 2 years.
 

Sota Popinski

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Rubtsov has more upside than Josh Norris, even with Rubtsovs downyear, the only thing is that his floor is lower. With the prospects shaping out, Couturier, Patrick, Frost, Vorobyev, and O’Brien push him out of that C fold. It’s ok if you don’t know who he is, I also understand you’re trying to start a pissing contest with comments like that, but coming out of 2016, Rubtsov was ranked only behind Matthews in 2-way play. He isn’t flashy, but when you watch him play, you see how smart he is on the puck and how responsible his stick and positioning are. He won’t be a 40-50 Point player in the NHL I don’t think, but you’d be getting a real good defensive player with offensive upside.

Samuel Ersson is a Swedish goaltender. Think of Tristan Jarry coming out of the draft or Ben Bishop when they were first drafted. They excelled in 3 aspects- vision, positioning, and control. They lacked one thing, as does Ersson: Athleticism. Goalies are rarely seen as an A candidate during their draft year, WSH was the last to receive one, but Ersson was graded as a “B”. That’s a second/third round talent when regarding F and Dmen. You can always wait to draft goalies since they take time to develop. Erssons ceiling may just be a starter, but his floor is easily a serviceable backup.

For an aging and declining stop gap #4/5 for the Flyers... you’d be lucky to receive an offer... where the floor is:— just to point out... this is the floor. This is when they don’t tap their potential.

3rd pick + 4th line defensive forward/PK specialist + serviceable backup.

That’s a very comparable offer to

Melker Karlsson + Antoine Bibeau + 3rd

For someone like Braun. The only thing is that they’ve kinda reached where they’re going to be.

And again... is Braun worth more than that... yep! There’s one problem.

Philly isn’t going to pay an arm and a leg for a stop gap Dman who we don’t need in a year or two.
Has more upside than Josh Norris according to who? You? I guess it is too bad he had a "down year" in the most recent year we have, while playing in a Junior league. I'm not even going to argue who is better between Norris and Rubtsov because it is irrelevant. Wow, he was ranked only behind Matthews in 2-way play 2 years ago? That and 50 cents will get you a cup of coffee. A first round pick should be at least a point per game player in a Junior league at age 19.

A goalie whose floor is a serviceable backup? Wow, what a valuable asset. It's really hard to sign a free agent backup goalie for the league minimum. Oh wait, that is pretty much what all NHL teams end up doing every year. Why did he last until the 5th round if he is so great? Delusional.

An aging and declining stopgap 4/5? Maybe you haven't looked at the Flyers roster, because after Ghost and Provorov, you don't have anyone else that is better than Braun. Gudas? No. Hagg? No. Sanheim? Not yet.

This thread was started by a Flyers fan, so your snooty comment about how the Sharks would be lucky to get an offer from the Flyers is pretty obviously not true. Your post is just a typical "our players are better than yours because they are on our team" post. And no Sharks fan would be happy with a trade of Braun for a Melker clone +Bibeau clone +3rd, for exactly the reason I said. The Sharks are happy to keep Braun. They are contenders for the Cup and IMO Braun is probably the best bottom pairing defenseman in the league (since that is where he will be playing). As has been written in multiple places, the Sharks will probably use Braun with Vlasic as a shutdown pairing with leads late in games. I can't imagine the Sharks trading him for futures, and if they did it would be better prospects and picks than a lottery ticket, a 5th round pick and a 3rd round pick.
 

CapnZin

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Has more upside than Josh Norris according to who? You? I guess it is too bad he had a "down year" in the most recent year we have, while playing in a Junior league. I'm not even going to argue who is better between Norris and Rubtsov because it is irrelevant. Wow, he was ranked only behind Matthews in 2-way play 2 years ago? That and 50 cents will get you a cup of coffee. A first round pick should be at least a point per game player in a Junior league at age 19.

A goalie whose floor is a serviceable backup? Wow, what a valuable asset. It's really hard to sign a free agent backup goalie for the league minimum. Oh wait, that is pretty much what all NHL teams end up doing every year. Why did he last until the 5th round if he is so great? Delusional.

An aging and declining stopgap 4/5? Maybe you haven't looked at the Flyers roster, because after Ghost and Provorov, you don't have anyone else that is better than Braun. Gudas? No. Hagg? No. Sanheim? Not yet.

This thread was started by a Flyers fan, so your snooty comment about how the Sharks would be lucky to get an offer from the Flyers is pretty obviously not true. Your post is just a typical "our players are better than yours because they are on our team" post. And no Sharks fan would be happy with a trade of Braun for a Melker clone +Bibeau clone +3rd, for exactly the reason I said. The Sharks are happy to keep Braun. They are contenders for the Cup and IMO Braun is probably the best bottom pairing defenseman in the league (since that is where he will be playing). As has been written in multiple places, the Sharks will probably use Braun with Vlasic as a shutdown pairing with leads late in games. I can't imagine the Sharks trading him for futures, and if they did it would be better prospects and picks than a lottery ticket, a 5th round pick and a 3rd round pick.
This will be a long post. A long one. People don’t have to read, but I suggest you do. First off- take a class or read a book about arguing. Very valuable tool in America. You must have a point as a retort in order for a debate. When you attack/go after someone... that is the smirky comment that people don’t like. Not trying to attack you personally, but that’s a piece of advice. It’ll help you out when you get in further debates. You’re not arguing a point. You’re just going after everything I said.

I am not one of those people who thinks flyers players are better because they’re on the flyers. Plenty of my other posts explicitly say that braun is way more valuable than what I am offering!!! We offer a low return because we will not pay a premium for a degraded asset. Simple as that. One would be quite idiotic to do so and to offer so. Please read back before you post. My offers are based off of Statistcal Packaging.

I make my trades based off of statistical inferencing. What I’m about to show you is not 100% conclusive of these contingencies. I switched up the regression because Sanheim was a rookie and that would either deflate some of Brauns valuation while significantly inflating Sanheim. This regression is non-adjusted for a same denomination /60. I did that so these starts aren’t inflated or deflated. I only used last year. If Braun had a really really bad year (worst of his career)... then you can just skip this.

This is generally something that is easy to do since I’m not adjusting for the /60. If I were to... well it would take a long time lol and I don’t have the patience for it.

Here is a valuation and I will explain it:

NonAdjustedValuation:

[(P.A.*60).1] + (OnIce.S * 100) + (DEF * 10)

P.A. —> P/60 + CF%(+/- 50) + RelCF%(+/- 0) + G+/- + xG+/- + iP+/-

OnIce.S —> [(TOI%QOT/60) + (TOI%QoC/60) + (CF%QoC/60)]

DEF—> iGVA + iTKA + iHF + iBLK + DZS% + NZS%

Travis Sanheim: 155.88 * .1 =15.59
Justin Braun: 129.42 * .1. = 12.94

This is a decent differential.

Very big thing here too. Sanheim offensive valuation is right around 100 and his defensive valuation is close to 50. Braun has a negative offensive value of approximately a massive -111 while his defensive valuation was an astounding +255.
2-way play is the biggest thing in the NHL right now and this shows why!

EDIT: as a further explanation. I love using same denomination as a comparison.... however this is not a comparison! This is a valuation. Just want to make that clear. I’m also not a fan of QOT/C metrics, but they do have some insight.

I don’t have the variables and their constants for each player... if you would like them just tell me. That takes too much time and, again, I don’t have the patience for that.

If you’re someone who understands what I did up there... you may think... THIS IS EXTREMELY UNFAIR TO BRAUN!

That’s a little true... it is. One aspect that is not there are HD/LD%S%. That’s a very big attribute for Defensive Dmen...

The marginality for this is a decent amount. For that... let’s say, again I didn’t adjust for this because of it deflating Braun, but let’s say there is an outstanding difference. Let say Braun stop play at 25% down on HighDamger Opportunites - something crazy like that and Sanheim is not good down low so we can equate his to a -2.5.

Those valuations would most likely be around:

Sanheim: 15.19
Braun: 15.49.

The difference in their valuation, but a generous example of play stopping ability at a HDO, causes a ~2% valuation in Brauns favor.

***Obviously there is a lot that goes into valuation... team needs being the most favorable factor. This isn’t contingent upon all factors, but it’s a depiction of value based on EVEN STRENGTH PLAY and their player attributes.

2-way play is the most valuable play in the NHL now and valuation somewhat depicts that.

This type of valuation was done for the

Rubtsov + Ersson + 2nd or 3rd which ever it was. Their values added up is like .20 lower than Braun. No one ever pays a premium for something they don’t need.

This doesn’t take very long to do at all. If you have any questions... message me privately so we don’t take up the board. Thank you for reading!
 
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north49er

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This will be a long post. A long one. People don’t have to read, but I suggest you do. First off- take a class or read a book about arguing. Very valuable tool in America. You must have a point as a retort in order for a debate. When you attack/go after someone... that is the smirky comment that people don’t like. Not trying to attack you personally, but that’s a piece of advice. It’ll help you out when you get in further debates. You’re not arguing a point. You’re just going after everything I said.

I am not one of those people who thinks flyers players are better because they’re on the flyers. Plenty of my other posts explicitly say that braun is way more valuable than what I am offering!!! We offer a low return because we will not pay a premium for a degraded asset. Simple as that. One would be quite idiotic to do so and to offer so. Please read back before you post. My offers are based off of Statistcal Packaging.

I make my trades based off of statistical inferencing. What I’m about to show you is not 100% conclusive of these contingencies. I switched up the regression because Sanheim was a rookie and that would either deflate some of Brauns valuation while significantly inflating Sanheim. This regression is non-adjusted for a same denomination /60. I did that so these starts aren’t inflated or deflated. I only used last year. If Braun had a really really bad year (worst of his career)... then you can just skip this.

This is generally something that is easy to do since I’m not adjusting for the /60. If I were to... well it would take a long time lol and I don’t have the patience for it.

Here is a valuation and I will explain it:

NonAdjustedValuation:

[(P.A.*60).1] + (OnIce.S * 100) + (DEF * 10)

P.A. —> P/60 + CF%(+/- 50) + RelCF%(+/- 0) + G+/- + xG+/- + iP+/-

OnIce.S —> [(TOI%QOT/60) + (TOI%QoC/60) + (CF%QoC/60)]

DEF—> iGVA + iTKA + iHF + iBLK + DZS% + NZS%

Travis Sanheim: 155.88 * .1 =15.59
Justin Braun: 129.42 * .1. = 12.94

This is a decent differential.

Very big thing here too. Sanheim offensive valuation is right around 100 and his defensive valuation is close to 50. Braun has a negative offensive value of approximately a massive -111 while his defensive valuation was an astounding +255.
2-way play is the biggest thing in the NHL right now and this shows why!

EDIT: as a further explanation. I love using same denomination as a comparison.... however this is not a comparison! This is a valuation. Just want to make that clear. I’m also not a fan of QOT/C metrics, but they do have some insight.

I don’t have the variables and their constants for each player... if you would like them just tell me. That takes too much time and, again, I don’t have the patience for that.

If you’re someone who understands what I did up there... you may think... THIS IS EXTREMELY UNFAIR TO BRAUN!

That’s a little true... it is. One aspect that is not there are HD/LD%S%. That’s a very big attribute for Defensive Dmen...

The marginality for this is a decent amount. For that... let’s say, again I didn’t adjust for this because of it deflating Braun, but let’s say there is an outstanding difference. Let say Braun stop play at 25% down on HighDamger Opportunites - something crazy like that and Sanheim is not good down low so we can equate his to a -2.5.

Those valuations would most likely be around:

Sanheim: 15.19
Braun: 15.49.

The difference in their valuation, but a generous example of play stopping ability at a HDO, causes a ~2% valuation in Brauns favor.

***Obviously there is a lot that goes into valuation... team needs being the most favorable factor. This isn’t contingent upon all factors, but it’s a depiction of value based on EVEN STRENGTH PLAY and their player attributes.

2-way play is the most valuable play in the NHL now and valuation somewhat depicts that.

This type of valuation was done for the

Rubtsov + Ersson + 2nd or 3rd which ever it was. Their values added up is like .20 lower than Braun. No one ever pays a premium for something they don’t need.

This doesn’t take very long to do at all. If you have any questions... message me privately so we don’t take up the board. Thank you for reading!
Long post is right! IMO the Flyers are taking the same road the Jets did 3 or so years ago so leave everything alone and enjoy the ride.
 
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Halla

Registered User
Jan 28, 2016
14,727
3,779
The only immediate need the Sharks have at the moment is an established 3C. But I don’t know if the Flyers are in a position to provide that in a trade for Braun.

In lieu of a 3C the Sharks might be interested in a futures package to offset some of the assets they’ve recently traded away.

How’s this sound:

:flyers
Braun

:sharks
Frost/Myers
2019 2nd
2020 4th
]wow. that probably gets him. quite a haul for a player like braun.
 

Sasso09

Registered User
Jan 2, 2009
12,409
1,892
Chicago
The only immediate need the Sharks have at the moment is an established 3C. But I don’t know if the Flyers are in a position to provide that in a trade for Braun.

In lieu of a 3C the Sharks might be interested in a futures package to offset some of the assets they’ve recently traded away.

How’s this sound:

:flyers
Braun

:sharks
Frost/Myers
2019 2nd
2020 4th
Braun and a 1st isn't getting Frost
 

ItMe

Registered User
Jan 4, 2017
198
173
YES...Braun to the Flyers needs to happen.

Flyers defense (as a whole) is as bad as their goaltending

Simmonds + Hagg for Braun + 3rd

Not sure what San Jose's needs are...How far off am I?
 

Sasso09

Registered User
Jan 2, 2009
12,409
1,892
Chicago
The original statement was a claim that the package of Frost, a 2nd and a 4th is more valuable than the entire package given up for Karlsson which is ludicrous. Yes, Frost is more valuable than any individual piece but let's be honest what had he really done to justify saying hes more valuable than a 1st, a former 1st, a good prospect, 2 nhl roster players and a conditional 2nd? That is exactly what I was pointing out.
Not only is it NOT ludicrous, its fact. Frost, 2nd and 4th is a better package than the junk Sens got.
 

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