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Blue Jays Discussion: June 2017 Edition

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zeke

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
heh.

i started this by congratulating shapkins for their draft last year.

stop being so adorable.
 
Morgs

Morgs

#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Jul 12, 2015
19,546
15,411
London, ON
Diamond Joe Quimby said:
Machado is going to start hitting any minute now. Carpenter will as well. Bryant and Seager are two of the best young hitters in baseball.

You could definitely sell Judge to someone high(AF) right now, for say a Betts + decent MI (think Turner) combo. Mind you, the hypothetical owner of those two would have to be a little slow, but that's the type of return I'm talking about.
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I was hoping Carpenter would be Carpenter 2016 pre injury last season... he's been post injury. Starting to scare me that the oblique is taking it's toll? The guy's stats are just worse across the board.

Machado I bought "low" on, even though I traded two of the best hitters in baseball right now. I know he's bound to bounce back sooner than later, his stats can almost be fixed with a simple babip regression.

I've been thinking about selling Judge, but he's just been.. for lack of better word fantastic. Now I don't think he's going to keep it up, but it feels like it's probably worth riding out. Especially because my team has 0 weaknesses except CF, and that's Marte's spot in 40~ games.
 
Diamond Joe Quimby

Diamond Joe Quimby

A$AP Joffrey
Aug 14, 2010
13,547
2,996
Washington, DC
Morgs said:
I was hoping Carpenter would be Carpenter 2016 pre injury last season... he's been post injury. Starting to scare me that the oblique is taking it's toll? The guy's stats are just worse across the board.

Machado I bought "low" on, even though I traded two of the best hitters in baseball right now. I know he's bound to bounce back sooner than later, his stats can almost be fixed with a simple babip regression.

I've been thinking about selling Judge, but he's just been.. for lack of better word fantastic. Now I don't think he's going to keep it up, but it feels like it's probably worth riding out. Especially because my team has 0 weaknesses except CF, and that's Marte's spot in 40~ games.
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Hold on Carpenter. Unless it is the oblique, which I feel like we would have heard about by now, then he'll bounce back. He looks healthy in his at-bats. If you're impatient and need to sit him, then pick up Bour or (over)Yonder and plug them in at first, or Whit Merifield if you have him at 2nd, for a bit until he shows you something.

Matt Carpenter‘s is facing the shift more than ever before, though it’s only a marginal jump from last year. The only real problem here is that he has become an extreme fly ball hitter. Though, he stills hits his liners and doesn’t pop up too much, so however you slice it, he has no business BABIPing just .237. He’s doing everything else you would expect, so if you sense his owner is getting annoyed by the average, pounce.
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I'm willing to put money down that Machado has a higher wRC+ for June-Sept than Judge. Manny's underlying figures are the same as they've been, he's just not getting his singles, which I don't expect to continue. As you said, the BABIP won't stay that low.

As for Judge...once somebody gets off their ass and figures out how to pitch to him, that BABIP is going to come down about 100 points, while the K% won't, and neither will that GB% everyone keeps ignoring.

Definitely hold on him unless you get a crazy offer, but the ***** train has a runway on it.
 
Morgs

Morgs

#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Jul 12, 2015
19,546
15,411
London, ON
Diamond Joe Quimby said:
Hold on Carpenter. Unless it is the oblique, which I feel like we would have heard about by now, then he'll bounce back. He looks healthy in his at-bats. If you're impatient and need to sit him, then pick up Bour or (over)Yonder and plug them in at first, or Whit Merifield if you have him at 2nd, for a bit until he shows you something.



I'm willing to put money down that Machado has a higher wRC+ for June-Sept than Judge. Manny's underlying figures are the same as they've been, he's just not getting his singles, which I don't expect to continue. As you said, the BABIP won't stay that low.

As for Judge...once somebody gets off their ass and figures out how to pitch to him, that BABIP is going to come down about 100 points, while the K% won't, and neither will that GB% everyone keeps ignoring.

Definitely hold on him unless you get a crazy offer, but the ***** train has a runway on it.
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He plays 2B on my team thankfully. 1B is reserved for the struggling Wil Myers. I have Chris Turner right now playing CF, but If only Marte wasn't suspended I could just bench Carpenter and plug Turner in until his average isn't such a **** show. Where did you find that quote about Carpenter? I've been looking for a tip like that for a little while just for a little bit better of an explanation.

Oh I completely agree, Manny is too good to be this bad, and I knew it was time to pounce. Just had to give up Stanton and Rendon, who are raking and that has hurt the last few weeks.

Judge was really not too special in the minors (not that that's everything), but my big issue is that he's literally the only guy on my team hitting. His babip a month ago wasn't so ridiculously high, and he was hitting about the same (didn't realize it got all the way up to .400). My biggest issue is that I need someone that plays CF, and there's really not much out there that I think would mask the loss of Judge. Pollock? Cespedes? Conforto?
 

Mach85

Registered User
Mar 14, 2013
3,899
678
Morgs said:
He plays 2B on my team thankfully. 1B is reserved for the struggling Wil Myers. I have Chris Turner right now playing CF, but If only Marte wasn't suspended I could just bench Carpenter and plug Turner in until his average isn't such a **** show. Where did you find that quote about Carpenter? I've been looking for a tip like that for a little while just for a little bit better of an explanation.

Oh I completely agree, Manny is too good to be this bad, and I knew it was time to pounce. Just had to give up Stanton and Rendon, who are raking and that has hurt the last few weeks.

Judge was really not too special in the minors (not that that's everything), but my big issue is that he's literally the only guy on my team hitting. His babip a month ago wasn't so ridiculously high, and he was hitting about the same (didn't realize it got all the way up to .400). My biggest issue is that I need someone that plays CF, and there's really not much out there that I think would mask the loss of Judge. Pollock? Cespedes? Conforto?
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Those guys are available on the wire in your league?? Or are you talking trade? Grab Cespedes when he comes back from injury. Otherwise Conforto. Then Pollock.
 
TootooTrain

TootooTrain

Sandpaper
Jun 12, 2010
35,505
461
When Jamie Campbell first said "Mr.Hahhhhhn" I instantly went to linkin park. I don't think that's what he meant.
 
trellaine201

trellaine201

Registered User
Feb 10, 2010
19,744
2,728
Left coast
This team is starting to look like it did at the beginning of the year. Some poor Defense in this series. Bad base running. Etc etc.
 
stickty111

stickty111

Registered User
Jan 23, 2017
26,645
32,948
trellaine201 said:
This team is starting to look like it did at the beginning of the year. Some poor Defense in this series. Bad base running. Etc etc.
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Based on one game? They just split a 4 game series against a good team but sure if you say so.
 
Eyedea

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
27,478
3,292
Toronto, Ontario
Alex: I watched a lot of the Wake Forest regional this past weekend. What’s the story on Stuart Fairchild? I haven’t seen him in many mock drafts, is it the hit tool holding him back?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think he could go back of round 1, have heard him with Toronto. Speedy little ball of muscle, has some pop, very upright in the box and might swing and miss. Have him ahead of Brian Miller at this point.
 
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