Player Discussion Josh Archibald

[McDNicks17]

What are the fancy stats for PK and checking? Serious question not trying to be an a-hole as I don’t follow the fancies.

You have to do more than score and he does it in spades. He’s a perfect 4th line F.

He'd be the perfect 4th line forward if he wasn't such a drag at 5v5, IMO.

A 4th line player quickly approaches replacement level when their main value comes from PKing and hits.

 

[Drivesaitl]

The two players we're talking about make up 2/3rds of that unit. It's silly to pretend they have no effect on the numbers.

Its silly to think that one unit metric of 5 skaters on ice plus a goalie is describing one or two players in isolation. With respect of the Oilers why wouldn't you include the D and goaltending they have been associated with.

Drai prob has the highest GA on the team. But a lot of that has been at times where the D and G have been a tirefire. You have to consider all the players on the ice, the impacts, the situation, how the players are used etc. Even correcting for somthing like zonestarts probably explains a lot of the data for Sheahan.

 

[Drivesaitl]

50gp. 9-7-16 -5 and 138 hits all while never taking a shift off, what else do you expect from a 4th liner?

Archie deserves Betty AND Veronica.

I stole that off the gdt..

 

[McDNicks17]

Archie has 56% dzone starts.

Sheahan has 66% dzone starts.

lets just say you're not wrong and its one problem with citing limited unit stats without the perspective on how the players are used.

A vet coach is trusting these guys with a diet of dzone starts and pk and we're led to believe here that they are a tirefire defensively? Um, no, I don't think so.

Where are you getting those numbers from?

Are you excluding neutral zone draws and on the fly changes?

 

[Nostradumbass]

He'd be the perfect 4th line forward if he wasn't such a drag at 5v5, IMO.

A 4th line player quickly approaches replacement level when their main value comes from PKing and hits.

...He has scored more goals this season than all but 6 of our players from last year's team, and he's only played 50 games so far. What more can you possibly want from him? One more goal and he ties Darnell Nurse for 6th.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Archibald's production this season:
October and November 19gp. 0-0-0 -7
December-February 31gp. 9-7-16 +2

Sheahan's production this season:
October and November 23gp. 0-1-1 -9
December-February 31gp. 7-5-12 +4

Like I said, slow starts on a new club and then they have really taken off for us and developed awesome chemistry together. Why risk adding new guys next season when we already have a combo that has chemistry and is doing well for us? Don't let this be another Glencross type of a situation.

 

[Cup or Bust]

Good signing for the Oilers. Both him and Sheahan had quiet starts to the season, but both have played much better the last 20-30 games. Nice to see some depth guys make a good impact on the team.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Archi has started 12.2% of his shifts on defensive zone draws, so likely not all that impactful on the stats.

?

2019-20 Edmonton Oilers Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

tbh I don't know how they compile the numbers on the site, looks like they just look at Dzone and Ozone starts, but the 12% you cited looks off. Where you getting that?

 

[Aceboogie]

Archy was a solid pick up in the offseason. Yotes fans loved him

These are the type of depth signings we need to continue making. Sign the hungry guys to short term deals.

Id personally then avoid signing those same guys to 2 year+ contracts after they have one year of success. Or, make sure the AAV is low if you do so.

Love the player though. Has some skill and a ton of drive. Those are the two things you need

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Good signing for the Oilers. Both him and Sheahan had quiet starts to the season, but both have played much better the last 20-30 games. Nice to see some depth guys make a good impact on the team.

Good post.
Your user name sucks.

 

[Samus44]

Archibald ranks 285th out of 301 forwards who have played at least 500 5v5 minutes this season in xGF% and 289th in GF%.

There's very few players in the league have have been out-chanced and out-scored at the rate he has.

It's about role though. The Oilers use Archibald in a pure checking role against top lines, when holding a lead, and he's out after PK's when teams often sustain pressure. Archibald has been outstanding considering his usage, you can't expect him to compete offensively against the players he's up against and because he's being leaned on so heavily for defensive use he's obviously out chanced. It's not fluke that the Oilers are a winning team with him and Sheahan playing a big role. Archibald and Sheahan limit the bleeding to an acceptable amount as they bend but don't break and let the big guns up front and special teams win the game. Unless you draft crazy well and have no bad contracts you're going to need effective role players and that's Archibald to a tee. Tippett puts guys in a place they can help the team the most in and that's why Archibald is in the role he is and the team is winning, he's not an idiot.

 

[McDNicks17]

?

2019-20 Edmonton Oilers Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

Yeah. Hockey-Reference excludes those for some reason.

Archibald has 82 offensive zone starts, 140 neutral zone starts, 84 defensive zone starts and 379 on the fly starts this season at 5v5.

That's 12.2% of his shifts starting on defensive zone draws if I didn't fudge the math.

Sheahan is at 16.3% since he was getting more defensive zone draws while they were separated.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Yeah. Hockey-Reference excludes those for some reason.

Archibald has 82 offensive zone starts, 140 neutral zone starts, 84 defensive zone starts and 379 on the fly starts this season at 5v5.

That's 12.2% of his shifts starting on defensive zone draws if I didn't fudge the math.

Sheahan is at 16.3% since he was getting more defensive zone draws while they were separated.

I'd personally through out the on the fly starts as those are just normal shift changes. What was Rieder's xGF, etc. last season? I'd like to know if that stat shows him as an = to Archibald considering he was a plug last season.

 

[McDNicks17]

It's about role though. The Oilers use Archibald in a pure checking role against top lines, when holding a lead, and he's out after PK's when teams often sustain pressure. Archibald has been outstanding considering his usage, you can't expect him to compete offensively against the players he's up against and because he's being leaned on so heavily for defensive use he's obviously out chanced. It's not fluke that the Oilers are a winning team with him and Sheahan playing a big role. Archibald and Sheahan limit the bleeding to an acceptable amount as they bend but don't break and let the big guns up front and special teams win the game. Unless you draft crazy well and have no bad contracts you're going to need effective role players and that's Archibald to a tee. Tippett puts guys in a place they can help the team the most in and that's why Archibald is in the role he is and the team is winning, he's not an idiot.

He definitely doesn't play against top lines. He's had a very typical usage under Tipp on the fourth line. Tipp isn't one of the dinosaurs of the past few years sending out the "Wagon line" to get slaughtered by 1st lines.

I'm not saying get rid of him. I'm just saying you really can't pay him upwards of $1.5M because he's always going to be a guy who looks more effective than he is because of the effort he puts in.

 

[Samus44]

Player Usage Charts - Hockey Abstract

Just set it to Edmonton. Advanced stats have value but i think we can all look at this chart and know James Neal isn't a better player than McDavid. The stats clearly aren't accounting for usage well enough as literally every defensive player looks bad and every offensive player looks good, it's almost as if the coach is putting guys in particular roles. What this chart shows me is Tippett puts every guys in the position they belong in, nothing looks random. That man is the best coach this team has had since a Stanley was in town.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Yeah. Hockey-Reference excludes those for some reason.

Archibald has 82 offensive zone starts, 140 neutral zone starts, 84 defensive zone starts and 379 on the fly starts this season at 5v5.

That's 12.2% of his shifts starting on defensive zone draws if I didn't fudge the math.

Sheahan is at 16.3% since he was getting more defensive zone draws while they were separated.

Thanks, but its called zone starts for a reason, seems odd to include on the fly.

But wouldn't Archie have such an inordinate amount of on the fly taps on the shoulder because of how damned fast he is and how quickly he can rescue the play? Seems to me the speed guys are going to get more on the fly changes. probably even more on the road.
Seems to me that on an Oilers team that has had a lot of undisciplined changes, and that often fails to get the puck deep, that an on the fly guy would be punished with more GA. I've seen a lot of suspect line changes this season. Tippett had addressed that as well multiple times.

 

[Samus44]

He definitely doesn't play against top lines. He's had a very typical usage under Tipp on the fourth line. Tipp isn't one of the dinosaurs of the past few years sending out the "Wagon line" to get slaughtered by 1st lines.

I'm not saying get rid of him. I'm just saying you really can't pay him upwards of $1.5M because he's always going to be a guy who looks more effective than he is because of the effort he puts in.

I wouldn't pay him more than 1.5, i'd try and get him at 1.3 over 3 years. The player usage chart sure indicates his QoC is very high, only McDavid is higher, and his dzone starts are really high as well. His linemate Sheahan has an extreme Dzone start, it's Archibald's time on the McDavid line is why his QoC is higher and his Dzone start is lower than Sheahan. This is a player being used in an extreme checking role.

This is why i'm a big fan of player usage charts, they give you context and points of comparison.

 

[McDNicks17]

I'd personally through out the on the fly starts as those are just normal shift changes. What was Rieder's xGF, etc. last season? I'd like to know if that stat shows him as an = to Archibald considering he was a plug last season.

Zone starts don't really have a significant effect on numbers unless you're in the Boyd "starting every shift in the defensive zone" Gordon levels of extreme. Someone did a study and, if I recall correctly, there's no difference in numbers beyond 20 seconds after a draw. If we assume offensive zone draws have the same positive effect as defensive zone draws have negative, that means we're talking about ~40 seconds of affected ice time for Archibald.

 

[McDNicks17]

Thanks, but its called zone starts for a reason, seems odd to include on the fly.

But wouldn't Archie have such an inordinate amount of on the fly taps on the shoulder because of how damned fast he is and how quickly he can rescue the play? Seems to me the speed guys are going to get more on the fly changes. probably even more on the road.
Seems to me that on an Oilers team that has had a lot of undisciplined changes, and that often fails to get the puck deep, that an on the fly guy would be punished with more GA. I've seen a lot of suspect line changes this season. Tippett had addressed that as well multiple times.

If you're trying to prove the effect of zone starts on his numbers, why exclude 75%(neutral zone and on the fly starts) of his shift starts?

 

[Drivesaitl]

Zone starts don't really have a significant effect on numbers unless you're in the Boyd "starting every shift in the defensive zone" Gordon levels of extreme. Someone did a study and, if I recall correctly, there's no difference in numbers beyond 20 seconds after a draw. If we assume offensive zone draws have the same positive effect as defensive zone draws have negative, that means we're talking about ~40 seconds of affected ice time for Archibald.

A disproportionate amount of goals are scored right off zone faceoffs and this has always been the case in hockey. Its why faceoff studs have always been sought after. Any study suggesting that D and Ozone starts make a negligible difference deserves some skepticism.

 

[Samus44]

Zone starts don't really have a significant effect on numbers unless you're in the Boyd "starting every shift in the defensive zone" Gordon levels of extreme. Someone did a study and, if I recall correctly, there's no difference in numbers beyond 20 seconds after a draw. If we assume offensive zone draws have the same positive effect as defensive zone draws have negative, that means we're talking about ~40 seconds of affected ice time for Archibald.

No way man. All you need to do is look at those player usage charts and see how few players can succeed in that top left quadrant to know that isn't true. You see outstanding two way centers like O'Reilly and J.Staal do well and i'd suggest it's because of strong faceoff performances winning the puck to the glut of excellent puck movers on those clubs. Those zone starts are nothing to gloss over.

 

[Drivesaitl]

If you're trying to prove the effect of zone starts on his numbers, why exclude 75%(neutral zone and on the fly starts) of his shift starts?

Its just semantics really. You cited zone starts. That implies starts in zone. On the fly are not tabulated on the basis of where they occur or where the puck happens to be the moment the player steps on ice.

Further this just reveals the complexity of hockey and the convo started with you citing one metric, corsi related at that, that does not delineate one player play.

You've attempted to depict players with one isolated, by proxy, unit, advanced stat. I don't know why you would do that.

As anybody responding notes theres much more going on in the respective player usages and situations that requires consideration in assigning relative value to players contributions.

 

[MessierII]

Zone starts don't really have a significant effect on numbers unless you're in the Boyd "starting every shift in the defensive zone" Gordon levels of extreme. Someone did a study and, if I recall correctly, there's no difference in numbers beyond 20 seconds after a draw. If we assume offensive zone draws have the same positive effect as defensive zone draws have negative, that means we're talking about ~40 seconds of affected ice time for Archibald.

You look at raw corsi for example almost every player near the top has favourable zone starts while almost every player near the bottom has unfavourable zone starts every single year. On numbers like that it has a huge impact.

 

[McDNicks17]

I wouldn't pay him more than 1.5, i'd try and get him at 1.3 over 3 years. The player usage chart sure indicates his QoC is very high, only McDavid is higher, and his dzone starts are really high as well. His linemate Sheahan has an extreme Dzone start, it's Archibald's time on the McDavid line is why his QoC is higher and his Dzone start is lower than Sheahan. This is a player being used in an extreme checking role.

This is why i'm a big fan of player usage charts, they give you context and points of comparison.

Do you have a link to the charts?

From what I'm seeing, Sheahan is 12th on the Oilers forwards in QoC TOI% and a 40% defensive zone start% isn't all that extreme.

 

[Samus44]

That clearly shows a valuable player playing top competition with poor zone starts and surviving.