Jones vs. Barrie: Whose success is more important to the Oilers next season?

[Drivesaitl]

I wouldn't be so sure of that. If he comes in and lights it up, gets along with the guys in the room, etc. I could see him leaving a little on the table to stay here. It is entirely possible that he just uses us to end up signing elsewhere, but seeing he's from western Canada and the team that we have up front, he will have a hard time finding a better fit team and location wise.

He left the money on the table to come here. For sure its not a stretch. I mean how much money does someone need. heh.

Heres the kind of thing I could see happening. We get him this season, he does well, at some point he gets re-upped on another one year and then moves onto the pay day on next contract, either here or elsehwere, and gets that payday. He's interested in being part of a lineup that is interesting and special and prone to offense and has voiced as much.

 

[bone]

I see it as Jones because I think we know what to expect from Barrie. If Jones isn’t successful this year, Russell is your second LD which would likely mean we are in trouble.

Barries likely to put up better numbers and likely be the better player but our NHL left defense depth without Klefbom needs Jones to have success.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Jones.

If Barrie shits the bed, we can still somewhat shelter him behind Bear and Larsson. Our PP is already #1, so we can't really expect it to improve.


Jones is in our top-4 for better or for worse now.
Our season hinges on how well Jones and Nurse can handle Matthews, Pettersson, and Scheifele and the other teams we'll be facing in the Canadian division.


Strangely enough, the entire "Canadian Division" is relatively weak on defense with likely no Norris nominees.

The best we'll be facing night in and out, are a 37 year old Giordano, a 35 year old Weber, and a 21 year old Hughes.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

He left the money on the table to come here. For sure its not a stretch. I mean how much money does someone need. heh.

Heres the kind of thing I could see happening. We get him this season, he does well, at some point he gets re-upped on another one year and then moves onto the pay day on next contract, either here or elsehwere, and gets that payday. He's interested in being part of a lineup that is interesting and special and prone to offense and has voiced as much.

I think that if he does well here he will be looking for a long term deal and rightfully so. He left supposedly $2.25 million on the table this season. This is an example of a guy betting on himself for a season to give himself the best fit long term while also being paid well long term. Taking another 1 year deal especially if he does well this season is playing with fire IMO as we all know that pro sports can be 1 injury away from changing a guys earning potential forever.

 

[DropTheGloves]

I think that he's young enough to take a step up this season or next, I'm just not sure what his top end is. I used a prime Sekera as a comp for him years ago, let's see if he has that in him.

It's not the sexiest name, but Dmitri Orlov looks like a good comparison statistically:

Jones Age 21- 50 Games, 6-23-29, 0.58 PPG (AHL)
Orlov Age 21- 31 Games, 3-14-17, 0.55 PPG (AHL)

Jones Age 22- 14 Games, 3-8-11, 0.78 PPG (AHL)/43 Games, 4-5-9, 0.2 PPG (NHL)
Orlov Age 22- 11 Games, 3-6-9, 0.81 PPG (AHL)/54 Games, 3-8-11, 0.2 PPG (NHL)

The nice thing is that Orlov took the leap to top four status the next season (not the very next year, he missed almost all the 2014-15 season from injury) with 29 points in 82 games. Fingers crossed Jones does the same thing.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Jones has a huge task of elevated, top-4 minutes

Barrie already knows how to play top-4 minutes, plus he's getting cherry PP time so Barrie

 

[bone]

It's not the sexiest name, but Dmitri Orlov looks like a good comparison statistically:

Jones Age 21- 50 Games, 6-23-29, 0.58 PPG (AHL)
Orlov Age 21- 31 Games, 3-14-17, 0.55 PPG (AHL)

Jones Age 22- 14 Games, 3-8-11, 0.78 PPG (AHL)/43 Games, 4-5-9, 0.2 PPG (NHL)
Orlov Age 22- 11 Games, 3-6-9, 0.81 PPG (AHL)/54 Games, 3-8-11, 0.2 PPG (NHL)

The nice thing is that Orlov took the leap to top four status the next season (not the next year, he missed almost all the 14-15 season from injury). Fingers crossed Jones does the same.

TJ Brodie stats are also similar

Brodie AHL ages 20-22 115 Games, 7-50-57 (0.5 PPG)
Jones AHL ages 20-22 122 Games, 11-46-57 (0.47 PPG)

The main difference is Brodie's first 60 games were better than Jones first 60, but Jones second 60 games were better.

Brodie NHL age 21-22 101 Games, 4-24-28 (0.28 PPG)
Jones NHL age 21-22 60 Games, 5-10-15 (0.25 PPG)

Both guys are lefties who can play the right side. Both are similar sizes with Jones being a tad heavier. Similar skating ability. Draft positions 117 vs. 114. Brodie had a larger Junior career as Jones did the US development program but their draft +1 and +2 seasons were also pretty similar. Generally their counting numbers are close with Jones being a little less while he also missed more games and got quite a bit less ice time than Brodie, but Jones' Goals to Assist ratio is a bit higher and didn't get very much PP time in the NHL to get the numbers he had compared to Brodie (12 PP points vs. Jones' 2).

For reference Brodie's 23 year old season was 81-4-27-31 playing 24 minutes a game (~2 on PP and 2 on PK) and his 24 year old season was 81-11-30-41 playing 25 minutes a game (~2 on PP and 2 on PK).

I think we'd be happy with a Brodie in his prime level player, and it doesn't seem unreasonable that it could happen.

 

[GOilers88]

I feel like Barrie appears to be a one year bet, so going on that premise I think Jones taking a step like Bear is much more important to the club over the long term. Specially with Klef out again.

 

[NotAVacuumSalesman]

Barrie if its short term. That 1 year signing is to fill in some(or all?) of Klefbom's minutes. If he holds up his end of the deal and put up good numbers. He'll likely get a good deal on his next contract. Good on Barrie and good for the team for the season. I don't expect him to resign after that since we'll have Bouchard ready. It'll be a Makar situation again for Barrie where he loses his job to a younger D. Frankly, I'd rather we spend on upgrading our goalie position than to resign Barrie.

If we're looking at it long term. Assuming Jones steps up in a big way. It forces the organization to protect him in the ED. It'll be the 7-3-1 option. Klefbom will be exempt since he didn't accrue enough games played to meet the expansion rule. So the 3 Ds protected would be Nurse, Bear, and Jones. This would expose Larsson and Russell to the ED.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I will say Barrie because his additional offense might mean a couple (to a few) more wins, but I also agree with how close the poll is, both these players will have to be good for the Oilers to succeed

 

[Skolman]

I'm surprised how close this poll is

 

[bone]

Barrie if its short term. That 1 year signing is to fill in some(or all?) of Klefbom's minutes. If he holds up his end of the deal and put up good numbers. He'll likely get a good deal on his next contract. Good on Barrie and good for the team for the season. I don't expect him to resign after that since we'll have Bouchard ready. It'll be a Makar situation again for Barrie where he loses his job to a younger D. Frankly, I'd rather we spend on upgrading our goalie position than to resign Barrie.

If we're looking at it long term. Assuming Jones steps up in a big way. It forces the organization to protect him in the ED. It'll be the 7-3-1 option. Klefbom will be exempt since he didn't accrue enough games played to meet the expansion rule. So the 3 Ds protected would be Nurse, Bear, and Jones. This would expose Larsson and Russell to the ED.

Klefbom wouldn't be exempt, he'd just wouldn't count towards the minimum exposure requirements if exposed.

The requirements state that all teams must expose at least 1 defenseman who is signed or an RFA for 2021-22 and has either played 70 games in the previous two years or 40 in the immediately preceding year. There's also an injury exception where a player who has missed 60 consecutive games doesn't count towards the exposure requirement. For all of the previously stated requirements, these don't make the player exempt from the draft if they don't meet them, the player just wouldn't count towards the minimum requirement if left exposed.

Larsson and Russell, though they'd be exposed also don't count because they aren't under contract and pending UFAs and Seattle isn't likely to select someone who is free to sign with any team they want a week or two later.

All of this adds up to the Oilers needing to expose one of Nurse, Bear or Jones if Klefbom or Lagesson do not achieve the games played requirements this year. Alternatively, Edmonton could pick up a player that would meet those requirements for exposure, but that would cost another asset which becomes a dangerous game.

 

[bone]

I'm surprised how close this poll is

Both sides have a pretty good case I think, so I'm not too surprised. The question isn't who's the better player, which would be easy, just whose success is more important to the Oilers.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Actually a good poll. Barrie is a prime years NHL proven offenseman with expectation of a 39+ point floor year which is essentially his worst year NHL production. He is being counted on to help drive a great power play which this team needs to sustain at elite levels in order to offset 5 x 5 play and meh goaltending. Barrie should easily clear this production bar on a very attractive show-me contract. I think he'll be very valuable to this team.

Jones is a 60 NHL game player who is being required to jump up into quality second pairing minutes with the Klefbom injury (though this time and situational play may be shared with veteran Russell). It is a pretty massive hedge by a team expected to improve on a big jump in the standings last year with organizational goal to take another step to become a legitimate playoff contender. Jones will be going essentially from zero to sixty miles per hour in terms of role, expectation, ice-time, and quality of competition. He's got a solid body of work in junior, AHL which suggests there is solid upside and some spot sample size at NHL level, but, Jones' performance jump this year is unknown and likely of greater importance than the certainty that Barrie provides at different stage of career. As well, Jones' play this year will potentially have consideration for the organization's Seattle expansion draft.

Gotta go with the greater unknown. If Jones can't make the jump to quality second pairing minutes and quality of opposition it will be a big hole.

 

[NotAVacuumSalesman]

Klefbom wouldn't be exempt, he'd just wouldn't count towards the minimum exposure requirements if exposed.

The requirements state that all teams must expose at least 1 defenseman who is signed or an RFA for 2021-22 and has either played 70 games in the previous two years or 40 in the immediately preceding year. There's also an injury exception where a player who has missed 60 consecutive games doesn't count towards the exposure requirement. For all of the previously stated requirements, these don't make the player exempt from the draft if they don't meet them, the player just wouldn't count towards the minimum requirement if left exposed.

Larsson and Russell, though they'd be exposed also don't count because they aren't under contract and pending UFAs and Seattle isn't likely to select someone who is free to sign with any team they want a week or two later.

All of this adds up to the Oilers needing to expose one of Nurse, Bear or Jones if Klefbom or Lagesson do not achieve the games played requirements this year. Alternatively, Edmonton could pick up a player that would meet those requirements for exposure, but that would cost another asset which becomes a dangerous game.

I figured Klefbom wouldn't be ED eligible according to the rules considering a) not enough games accrued and b) he'll likely miss the entire season with an injury.

I didn't realize this was Larsson's and Russell's final year..

I don't see Lagesson dressing 40 games considering its another condensed season. Might have to part ways with Jones to the ED...

 

[bone]

I figured Klefbom wouldn't be ED eligible according to the rules considering a) not enough games accrued and b) he'll likely miss the entire season with an injury.

I didn't realize this was Larsson's and Russell's final year..

I don't see Lagesson dressing 40 games considering its another condensed season. Might have to part ways with Jones...

There is an exemption note within the exposure details for injured players, as well, but I'd imagine its more designed to exempt players that are never coming back instead of ones that would have just missed an entire season.

Yeah, I'd like to think they may prorate the game requirements based on the actual schedule. Right now the two year window is looking likely to be at most 130 of the expected 164 games making a more reasonable number become somewhere between 55-60 over the two years and 30 for next year, but I could see Seattle fighting that considering the hefty amount they've paid for the franchise expecting the rules to be as committed to.,

 

[Smartguy]

I said Jones.

We still have a pretty massive hole at LD in our top 4 and Jones is probably going to have to lug around 20 minutes a night as a sophomore. If he can’t carry the weight, without a trade, we are essentially choosing between him and Russell which isn’t good. I am very high on Jones though and personally think he ends up with a higher ceiling than Bear, I mean he trains daily with his Brother, one of the best D in the entire league, and his metrics were very good last year.

I think regardless of how Barrie does he likely puts up 50+ points because of the PP. He has no competition here like in Toronto to be the guy there. I think his defensive play is overblown also but nobody is really expecting him to be great in his own end here

People forget that Klefbom had 18PP points last year, and he has about 5% of the offensive creativity or skill that Barrie has

 

[Soundwave]

I don't think theres a lot of if at this point. Really at no time have I gotten the feeling that Jones is taking a next step. Usually you see signs, segments, like that. Ethan Bear showed more than Jones ever has. Jones to me looks like somebody that isn't a top 4 D.

Jones outplayed Bear (quite frankly probably Nurse too) in the play-in games, the Oilers dominated play against the Hawks when ever Jones was on the ice, outshooting them 23-5 or something lop sided like that.

 

[McOvechking]

I'm a little concerned with how much everyone seems to be putting on Jones' shoulders for next season...

 

[Drivesaitl]

Jones outplayed Bear (quite frankly probably Nurse too) in the play-in games, the Oilers dominated play against the Hawks when ever Jones was on the ice, outshooting them 23-5 or something lop sided like that.

Jones played 23mins and was only in 2 of the games. The Oilers lost both of them.

Bear and Nurse had much more work and were getting ground down, also because Koski was almost always in net, and who doesn't play the puck much to relieve the punishment the D take. Bear was getting hammered by my count half a dozen times a game. Starts to be difficult to make astute breakouts when you're gettting lined up and playing hurt.

 

[Soundwave]

Jones played 23mins and was only in 2 of the games.

Bear and Nurse had much more work and were getting ground down, also because Koski was almost always in net, and who doesn't play the puck much to relieve the punishment the D take. Bear was getting hammered by my count half a dozen times a game. Starts to be difficult to make astute breakouts when you're gettting lined up and playing hurt.

Unfortunately Nurse and Bear were a big reason the Oilers lost the series. Now you can't really blame Bear that much since he was a rookie and mistakes were to be expected, but that pair absolutely got demolished by the Hawks. They need to learn from the lumps they took.

 

[TheUltimateOiler]

Jones is gonna become a beast. He will be a Morgan Reilly but not dumb.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Unfortunately Nurse and Bear were a big reason the Oilers lost the series. Now you can't really blame Bear that much since he was a rookie and mistakes were to be expected, but that pair absolutely got demolished by the Hawks. They need to learn from the lumps they took.

Klef and Larsson both being hurt, and one injured so much he could only play a couple of games were the larger reason. They were supposed to be the top pairing. They were not able to do that, and in Larssons case not healthy enough to even be on the ice a couple of the games.

Bear struggled because so much was being put on him and the Hawks keyed on him in the dumps as he's the closest thing we had to a PMD. Bear was getting hammered so much its great he was able to even play all the games. He was playing hurt throughout most of the series. He had trouble getting off the ice after several of his shifts.

Nurse? Its 4 games so I'm not going to make too much of it. Didn't think he had a good series but since we know that Klefbom had to be convinced to play in, and everybody knew he was hurt, and Larsson was out early, the whole team sagged. Really they must have thought this just wasn't going to be their time. I mean if the Oilers defeat Chicago they are probably sent out in first round. We were really lacking in D. Green opting out didn't help either. I mean who do we dress for D. We were pretty hooped.

 

[Cloned]

Actually a good poll.

Like all my polls are.

 

[Soundwave]

Klef and Larsson both being hurt, and one injured so much he could only play a couple of games were the larger reason. They were supposed to be the top pairing. They were not able to do that, and in Larssons case not healthy enough to even be on the ice a couple of the games.

Still they got routed. At least two of the goals in game 3/4 were Bear and Nurse basically covering no one in the defensive zone while a Hawks player stood uncovered in front of Koskinen and tipped the puck into the net, Bear puts another one into his own net, and then gets muscled off the puck by Toews for another goal.

He's a smart kid and he'll learn from it, but yeah that sucked.