Value of: Jonathan Toews for CGY

[Kranix]

What's the point of trading Toews? The hawks aren't going to be good until his contract is up anyways. If he was a UFA next season then yeah trade him.

 

[Double Dion]

Counter:
Toews for Monahan, Lucic, Zary and 2 2nds.

The Hawks have to get something for taking on the remainder of Lucic's useless contract. If they're taking Lucic, that's cap space they cannot weaponize. They must be compensated for that. They also would then have $14M tied up in completely useless players for the next two seasons (Seabrook, Lucic, and Maatta's retention)

I'd consider an extra 2nd. Not Zary. Monahan is a pretty nice piece. He isn't quite as good as Toews all around, but he's better offensively and 7 years younger.

 

[treple13]

Counter:
Toews for Monahan, Lucic, Zary and 2 2nds.

The Hawks have to get something for taking on the remainder of Lucic's useless contract. If they're taking Lucic, that's cap space they cannot weaponize. They must be compensated for that. They also would then have $14M tied up in completely useless players for the next two seasons (Seabrook, Lucic, and Maatta's retention)

Flames are taking Toews at 100% in this proposal. Lucic is being paid about 4 million too much for the next 3 years. Toews is being paid like 3.5 million too much for the next 3 years.

So who has more value, an older Toews at $7 mil, or a younger Monahan at around $6.4? Probably still Toews, but it's not that far apart.

Difference isn't Zary.

Honestly I don't do Monahan/Lucic for Toews with no add, if only because Monahan and Gaudreau are good friends and I think Monahan is the key to keeping Gaudreau here

 

[Samsquanch]

Backlund is absolutely crucial to our team. He isn't a top center, but he plays the other teams best center to a draw every night. He also scores you 45-55 points every year. Not sure how that isn't 2nd line production. Backlund is a better player than Monahan who would be perceived by everyone as a 1st or 2nd line center.

So why dont you guys just keep him if hes so loved and valuable to your team then?

Why is he like the flames fans #1 go to guy to throw into what seems like every single deal?

It feels soooooo much like how the Sens fans would talk up Kyle Turris in one breath, yet he was clearly the guy that everyone wanted to upgrade on.

Eventually other teams figure out that they dont want to give up anything significant for that caliber of player....

 

[qwerty]

What's the point of trading Toews? The hawks aren't going to be good until his contract is up anyways. If he was a UFA next season then yeah trade him.

Because Toews wants out. If he was still happy as a Blackhawk, he wouldn't have went off on the GM like he just did. Plus, if Bowman can nab younger pieces that'll help build for the future, then it makes a lot of sense to trade him now as they're not contending any time soon.

 

[HighLifeMan]

So why dont you guys just keep him if hes so loved and valuable to your team then?

Why is he like the flames fans #1 go to guy to throw into what seems like every single deal?

It feels soooooo much like how the Sens fans would talk up Kyle Turris in one breath, yet he was clearly the guy that everyone wanted to upgrade on.

Eventually other teams figure out that they dont want to give up anything significant for that caliber of player....

Where are you getting all of this? It's not true.

The OP isn't even a Flames fan...

If anything Monahan is the guy HF Flames wants to upgrade on/move on from.

 

[Double Dion]

So why dont you guys just keep him if hes so loved and valuable to your team then?

Why is he like the flames fans #1 go to guy to throw into what seems like every single deal?

It feels soooooo much like how the Sens fans would talk up Kyle Turris in one breath, yet he was clearly the guy that everyone wanted to upgrade on.

Eventually other teams figure out that they dont want to give up anything significant for that caliber of player....

I don't want to move him. I'd move Monahan way before Backlund. I think most of our fanbase would agree with this. Turris is not Backlund. Not even a remotely comparable player. Trading Backlund without having an elite center who can play strength on strength would really hurt us in a season where we might play McDavid 10-12 times. He pretty much scores every 3rd shift away from Backlund when we play them.

 

[Double Dion]

Where are you getting all of this? It's not true.

The OP isn't even a Flames fan...

If anything Monahan is the guy HF Flames wants to upgrade on/move on from.

Exactly right. I'm not sure what this guys is talking about. I follow every Flames thread. I've noticed Monahan, Gaudreau and Hanifin as the guys who come up a lot.

 

[Sparky93]

Backlund, Lucic, 2021 1st + 2022 1st

 

[Double Dion]

Backlund, Lucic, 2021 1st + 2022 1st

Not a chance. That is not a deal the Flames should be making.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

I'd consider an extra 2nd. Not Zary. Monahan is a pretty nice piece. He isn't quite as good as Toews all around, but he's better offensively and 7 years younger.

Yeah, but the Hawks would probably flip him to WPG or CBJ for futures. He doesn't fit our window, as he's a UFA at the same time as Toews and is already 26. Murphy is 27 right now and we're talking about moving him.

 

[Bounces R Way]

So why dont you guys just keep him if hes so loved and valuable to your team then?

Ok we will.

Why is he like the flames fans #1 go to guy to throw into what seems like every single deal?

He's really not.

It feels soooooo much like how the Sens fans would talk up Kyle Turris in one breath, yet he was clearly the guy that everyone wanted to upgrade on.

No it doesn't and no he isn't.

Eventually other teams figure out that they dont want to give up anything significant for that caliber of player....

Backlund is 6th in the NHL among centers over the last 4 seasons in CF%. Right up there with Bergeron and Crosby, ahead of Couturier and ROR despite starting in the OZ only 46% of the time in his career and facing some of the toughest QoC in the NHL.

He is a terrific matchup center. You are 0/4 in this post.

 

[Sparky93]

Not a chance. That is not a deal the Flames should be making.

Scrolling through your post, I'm not sure you even watch Toews player. He's Backlund times 2, with grit and leadership. We'd have to burn a 1st to dump Lucic anyways, so its Backlund and 1st, for a major upgrade, with the same cap/term.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Flames are taking Toews at 100% in this proposal. Lucic is being paid about 4 million too much for the next 3 years. Toews is being paid like 3.5 million too much for the next 3 years.

So who has more value, an older Toews at $7 mil, or a younger Monahan at around $6.4? Probably still Toews, but it's not that far apart.

Difference isn't Zary.

Honestly I don't do Monahan/Lucic for Toews with no add, if only because Monahan and Gaudreau are good friends and I think Monahan is the key to keeping Gaudreau here

If we're negotiating, then either Zary or a 1st, subtract the extra 2nd
Toews for either:
Monahan, Lucic, 1st, 2nd
or
Monahan, Lucic, Zary, 2nd.

If that doesn't get the job done, the Hawks will retain $1M on Toews.
So that would be Toews @ 9.5x3.

Question: What would you give for Toews @7.5-8M? We understand that there's a cap dump needed to make a deal work, if the package is good enough we'd retain up to $3M on Toews.

 

[Double Dion]

Scrolling through your post, I'm not sure you even watch Toews player. He's Backlund times 2, with grit and leadership. We'd have to burn a 1st to dump Lucic anyways, so its Backlund and 1st, for a major upgrade, with the same cap/term.

Toews from 5 years ago yes. Toews from today is no longer an elite defensive centerman. He's still pretty good. His numbers for reference are slightly worse defensively than Derek Ryan and no where close to Backlund. If we paid the 1st to dump Lucic we're paying to dump that cap already so your logic is pretty flawed. Normally you're a well thought out poster.

On the "Do you even watch him." That's the most tired thing on these boards. Every person who has a 10 year post track record here has watched Toews play. I'm concerned with what he is right now. Right now Backlund is being paid as a 2nd line center and is a 2nd line center. Toews is being paid as a franchise top 5 forward in the league and isn't anymore. He's still a decent 1st line 2 way center, but he'll also be 33 next year.

No question he was unreal in the playoffs this year, but that's a pretty small sample size.

 

[blankall]

Forgot EDM retained, but you still gotta factor in years beyond this one. Toews could easily get a multi year deal and still be a pretty useful player. Lucic wouldn't, so the total dead cap would be higher for looch.

This makes no sense.

Lucic was actually a quite effective bottom 6 player for the Flames. He led the team in hits and had 6 points in 10 playoff games. Lucic has already lost his speed, but he's likely to remain effective in his current role as goon/puck tipper for the 3 remaining years of his contract. I'd put Lucic's value at about 2 million right now, with very little chance of lowering. Making him $3.5 million overpaid.

Toews will be 33 by the next set of playoffs, and his play has already gotten inconsistent. I'd put Toews value at 7 million right now (also $3.5 million overpaid), but the odds of Toews value dipping below $7million is far greater than Lucic going much below $2 million.

Basically, Toews has a lot farther to fall.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Toews from 5 years ago yes. Toews from today is no longer an elite defensive centerman. He's still pretty good. His numbers for reference are slightly worse defensively than Derek Ryan and no where close to Backlund. If we paid the 1st to dump Lucic we're paying to dump that cap already so your logic is pretty flawed. Normally you're a well thought out poster.

On the "Do you even watch him." That's the most tired thing on these boards. Every person who has a 10 year post track record here has watched Toews play. I'm concerned with what he is right now. Right now Backlund is being paid as a 2nd line center and is a 2nd line center. Toews is being paid as a franchise top 5 forward in the league and isn't anymore. He's still a decent 1st line 2 way center, but he'll also be 33 next year.

No question he was unreal in the playoffs this year, but that's a pretty small sample size.

You do realize that the Hawks as a team are complete ass defensively, right? He's one of the few forwards on the team that has a clue in his own zone. The Hawks have way too many forwards that are allergic to playing defense and if you surround Toews with better players, I'd bet his numbers go damn close to where they were during his prime.

Also-I think that in the current scoring environment, the season he had in 18-19 would be about what he'd bring offensively, if only because the Hawks have had an absolute crap power play for the overwhelming majority of his career. Outside of 3 seasons, the Hawks have had a bottom half, if not bottom 10 PP in the NHL. 18-19 was the first time in 3 seasons that the Hawks were at least average on the PP. Do realize that most of the Hawks players scoring over the years was done 5-5 because their power play was flat out bad the majority of the time.

 

[blankall]

If we're negotiating, then either Zary or a 1st, subtract the extra 2nd
Toews for either:
Monahan, Lucic, 1st, 2nd
or
Monahan, Lucic, Zary, 2nd.

If that doesn't get the job done, the Hawks will retain $1M on Toews.
So that would be Toews @ 9.5x3.

Question: What would you give for Toews @7.5-8M? We understand that there's a cap dump needed to make a deal work, if the package is good enough we'd retain up to $3M on Toews.

The problem is that if you're taking on Toews 10.5 million at 32, he's coming with a massive bad contract. So the Lucic contract evens out. Toews is an improvement on 26 year old Monahan, but age difference closes much of that gap. You're not also getting an asset like Zary or a 1st.

 

[Double Dion]

You do realize that the Hawks as a team are complete ass defensively, right? He's one of the few forwards on the team that has a clue in his own zone. The Hawks have way too many forwards that are allergic to playing defense and if you surround Toews with better players, I'd bet his numbers go damn close to where they were during his prime.

Also-I think that in the current scoring environment, the season he had in 18-19 would be about what he'd bring offensively, if only because the Hawks have had an absolute crap power play for the overwhelming majority of his career. Outside of 3 seasons, the Hawks have had a bottom half, if not bottom 10 PP in the NHL. 18-19 was the first time in 3 seasons that the Hawks were at least average on the PP. Do realize that most of the Hawks players scoring over the years was done 5-5 because their power play was flat out bad the majority of the time.

Certainly a fair point on the bolded. But for me Toews in his prime was basically the same as Bergeron. A beast at both ends. I don't see him that way now. He's still good, but he wouldn't be in that category anymore for me.

I hate criticizing him because he's one of my favorite players ever, but we have to assess him with the what is he right now and in 3 years time glasses on.

The 2nd point I disagree with. I don't think he'd get back to his 18-19 level. If we're going with that to assess Toews, Monahan had 82 points that year and being younger is more likely to repeat that.

 

[Double Dion]

Yup, would strongly consider something around Monahan for Toews with the Hawks either retaining salary or the Flames adding in cap dumps (Lucic or Ryan).

E.g., Monahan+Ryan+2nd+Parsons for Toews @ 9M per (1.5M retained)

Futures straight up doesn't work for obvious reasons but the Flames are also not in a position to be giving away their highest picks and best prospects given the relatively shallow prospect pool.

Backlund foe Toews doesn't actually change the needle for the Flames despite Toews being better (at least in some areas). In that scenario, Toews would simply become the Flames' shutdown centre leaving Monahan as the top line centre essentially making the whole an exercise in futility. It has to be Monahan going the other way or a deal built around other pieces to make sense. Plus, Backlund as a NTC and is unlikely to waive for a rebuilding team.

That's a deal I would do.

I agree with you that it has to be Monahan not Backlund.

 

[Double Dion]

Toews has three Cups for a reason. The guy is seriously good in crunch time. He excels in playoff style hockey. He’d be great in Calgary.

This is true. He has a history of playing his best in big games. I've always wondered how much of that is random though. Certainly not all of it, and it's not a criticism of your post. I've just wondered how much of it is random.

 

[Sinbad]

What's the point of trading Toews? The hawks aren't going to be good until his contract is up anyways. If he was a UFA next season then yeah trade him.

Ya kind of answered your own question skippy; if the Hawks aren’t going to be good for a few seasons, then you might as well trade asset for prospects and/or picks to expedite the rebuild. No point hanging on to Toews, Kane and Keith so you can finish 10 - 12 in the conference every year and miss the playoffs.

 

[Sinbad]

This makes no sense.

Lucic was actually a quite effective bottom 6 player for the Flames. He led the team in hits and had 6 points in 10 playoff games. Lucic has already lost his speed, but he's likely to remain effective in his current role as goon/puck tipper for the 3 remaining years of his contract. I'd put Lucic's value at about 2 million right now, with very little chance of lowering. Making him $3.5 million overpaid.

Toews will be 33 by the next set of playoffs, and his play has already gotten inconsistent. I'd put Toews value at 7 million right now (also $3.5 million overpaid), but the odds of Toews value dipping below $7million is far greater than Lucic going much below $2 million.

Basically, Toews has a lot farther to fall.

You should just edit your post; move the first sentence to the end.

 

[Kranix]

Ya kind of answered your own question skippy; if the Hawks aren’t going to be good for a few seasons, then you might as well trade asset for prospects and/or picks to expedite the rebuild. No point hanging on to Toews, Kane and Keith so you can finish 10 - 12 in the conference every year and miss the playoffs.

Holy shit you're smart. Gad damn.

 

[blankall]

You should just edit your post; move the first sentence to the end.

Why? You don't think Toews' $10.5 million contract decreases his value?