Pre-Game Talk: Joining the Bandwagon

[The Zetterberg Era]

How big of a gap in PPG is significant enough to matter? I'm looking at PPG since 17/18 and Barzal has been pretty solid producing at a .89 clip. Toews at .85, Seguin at .89, Backstrom at .90, ROR at .85, William Karlsson at .79. Larkin has put up .83 ppg. The difference between Larkin and Backstrom is about 20 points. Over 3 seasons. With Larkin being on significantly worse teams with less help. If Toews, Seguin, Backstrom, ROR, and Karlsson can be guys who lead their teams at center to the Cup finals and multiple playoffs, I'm not sure why Larkin couldn't. If he elite? No, he's not McDavid, Crosby, etc. But neither are Seguin. Or Backstrom. Or ROR. Or Karlsson.

We don't necessarily need a guy who produces better than Larkin at center. We need someone to slot in behind him that is pretty close. Or a wing who can slot in on that second line who can work as the center (even if I don't like that set up).

I think they are a great second line on a contender, I think the reality is when it is time to do some winning, Bertuzzi is the guy that isn't going to be up that high in the lineup. It isn't really Larkin or Mantha that don't have top line ability to me. I love Bert and his game, I like that he can play up the lineup and I think there is a ton of skill to him. But for me he isn't a top line winger. They have great chemistry, but I think one of our building moments with now three big time skill wingers is going to be Larkin and Mantha getting one of the young guns at some point and that really being the line shortly. We will see though, because I can see the argument for Raymond and Zadina running a line together with Ras/Veleno/Trade/Draft Pick/UFA. But I think people get locked into this.

Larkin might not be a top 15 center, I don't think he is all that far off though. He has the ability to dominate. He was good after he got over the injuries to start the year. I am curious to see how he responds to the C next year. I agree you don't really need more than him. What you likely need is another guy in a similar stratosphere as Larkin though behind him. Think Bergeron/Krejci as an example. But we will have to see how the next couple drafts or free agency goes. I believe Mantha and Larkin have 1st line talent and play at that level often enough for me. I think Bert is still more your 2nd/3rd line tweener that can play up and down the lineup.

Had we drafted Byfield it is likely Larkin would have taken the most forward minutes anyway. People can get locked into first or second line, they can be fluid on certain teams. Larkin needs help, the guy doesn't need to be better than him, but he needs to have more than just his line rolling over the boards that can hurt you, which was the problem last year not really him or his line.

@AintLifeGrand welcome aboard. There have been brighter times in the franchise and actually darker times, but just barely on the darker ones. The Wings have a ways to go, some nice pieces and the lots of flexibility right now for building. We are going to need some luck and a few more developments that are hard to guess. It is an organization with a proud history and I am always glad to hear about another fan making the right decision and rooting for my favorite team in all of sports.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

@AintLifeGrand

Go to youtube and look up user awood40, that should keep you busy for a while...

Forgot that tip in the original thought, but a must for most Wings fans and a bunch of this board are those videos. You can also can catch up on some of the current players being discussed in his highlight reels for individual guys.

 

[PullHard]

What do we have to get excited about?

4th overall pick next draft

 

[Bench]

4th overall pick next draft

 

[Gniwder]

How big of a gap in PPG is significant enough to matter? I'm looking at PPG since 17/18 and Barzal has been pretty solid producing at a .89 clip. Toews at .85, Seguin at .89, Backstrom at .90, ROR at .85, William Karlsson at .79. Larkin has put up .83 ppg. The difference between Larkin and Backstrom is about 20 points. Over 3 seasons. With Larkin being on significantly worse teams with less help. If Toews, Seguin, Backstrom, ROR, and Karlsson can be guys who lead their teams at center to the Cup finals and multiple playoffs, I'm not sure why Larkin couldn't. If he elite? No, he's not McDavid, Crosby, etc. But neither are Seguin. Or Backstrom. Or ROR. Or Karlsson.

We don't necessarily need a guy who produces better than Larkin at center. We need someone to slot in behind him that is pretty close. Or a wing who can slot in on that second line who can work as the center (even if I don't like that set up).

Backstrom plays 2C for the Caps in between Vrana and TJ Oshie. Kuz is 1C in between Ovy and Wilson.

Backstrom got injured the season they won the Cup, Eller filled in and the team didn't miss a beat. So they have center depth where everyone can slot up one line and still win.

Larkin just doesn't make clean crisp passes, he wouldn't be on 1PP with a team that's contending for the Cup. He also sucks a faceoffs on PP, when he has to go up against the opposite team's FO specialist. Ideally he's 2C, or at least bumped down to 2PP.

 

[jkutswings]

Perfect. They can even cast Marchand as one of the ROUSes.

 

[Retire91]

I am wondering are you living in Michigan or are you and yours living out of state? Not that it matters welcome aboard we always welcome another voice. I hope your expectations are in line though Detroit is a legit last place team, but you are coming in on the ground floor to see something grow that could truly be special. I think Yzerman will grow the team into a highly skilled fast team that is hard to play against. We have Larkin Mantha and Bertuzzi rounding out half of a legit top 6 we have Hronek on D and Seider in the pipeline and of course Raymond our shiny new prospect.

We have missive holes just about everywhere it counts no really #1 C, no #1D and no #1G lol but we are all looking forward to the future and our discussions are mainly the way in which we get there and what to expect. There is a very solid boddy of hockey knowledge here with myself being one of the outlier luddites who is just a armchair GM and fan.

You missed the going away party for abdelkader who was the whipping boy we all hated to hate now its on to Neilsen and DeKeyser.

If you like Swedish style hockey I think you will really enjoy tuning in.

 

[Winger98]

I think they are a great second line on a contender, I think the reality is when it is time to do some winning, Bertuzzi is the guy that isn't going to be up that high in the lineup. It isn't really Larkin or Mantha that don't have top line ability to me. I love Bert and his game, I like that he can play up the lineup and I think there is a ton of skill to him. But for me he isn't a top line winger. They have great chemistry, but I think one of our building moments with now three big time skill wingers is going to be Larkin and Mantha getting one of the young guns at some point and that really being the line shortly. We will see though, because I can see the argument for Raymond and Zadina running a line together with Ras/Veleno/Trade/Draft Pick/UFA. But I think people get locked into this.

Larkin might not be a top 15 center, I don't think he is all that far off though. He has the ability to dominate. He was good after he got over the injuries to start the year. I am curious to see how he responds to the C next year. I agree you don't really need more than him. What you likely need is another guy in a similar stratosphere as Larkin though behind him. Think Bergeron/Krejci as an example. But we will have to see how the next couple drafts or free agency goes. I believe Mantha and Larkin have 1st line talent and play at that level often enough for me. I think Bert is still more your 2nd/3rd line tweener that can play up and down the lineup.

Had we drafted Byfield it is likely Larkin would have taken the most forward minutes anyway. People can get locked into first or second line, they can be fluid on certain teams. Larkin needs help, the guy doesn't need to be better than him, but he needs to have more than just his line rolling over the boards that can hurt you, which was the problem last year not really him or his line

I think Bert can be the third wheel on that line if it means the second line is just as big as the first. I'm still pretty bullish on Rasmussen as a 2C, but if we can bring someone else in to free him up, he becomes a massive wildcard for where you can slot him in the top6. With larkin and Mantha? Sure! With whoever and Raymond? Yeah, I can see that. Suddenly, Bert can then move down to line three without any hurt to the top6, and maybe gets paired with a guy like Bergren (sp? it's late and I"m tired).

What sucks is that the Wings aren't far from being able to do some of this right now. Hoffman is still on the market. Slide him into that first line next to Larkin-Mantha and then start playing musical chairs after sliding Bert down. Suddenly our forwards start looking like a legit group. Yeah, we're not going to go after him, but it is really just to show how one really high end guy totally shifts the look of this team and does it in a hurry.

For everyone caught up in being bad for another 3+ years...nah, we don't have to be. We have to have a little bit of luck go our way, but we're also going to have to be a bit aggressive at some point.

 

[Gniwder]

For everyone caught up in being bad for another 3+ years...nah, we don't have to be. We have to have a little bit of luck go our way, but we're also going to have to be a bit aggressive at some point.

I think everyone expects to be bad this season, maybe one more. At some point the team does have to start buying in free agency, there's a lot of contracts coming off the books the next 2 years including Hank's LTIR money and the Weiss buyout, along with Nemeth, Helm, LGD, Flip, Bernie, Staal, Ryan, Erne, Biega, Merrill, and Ganer this season and Nielsen, Greiss, DDK, Stecher, Vlad and Fabbri the following season. Right now (depending on what happens with Bert and Mantha) Larkin is the only player signed for 2022- 23. At that point, Stevie had to build his own team, the excuses end there.

The salary cap is staying flat, next season will be a buyer's market as well. You're worried that Chris won't spend the money, and I know he will when arena attendance is allowed again, simply because it makes business sense. More attendance means more revenue, and you can't get attendance with an AHL team like last season.

 

[14ari13]

You're badly mistaken if you think they've had success against Point, Crosby, Eichel, Tavares, etc. Just looking at Point, Larkin has 4 more points than Point.... in nearly 100 more games. Eichel has 74 more points than Larkin in almost 50 less games. Looking at the contenders this year only Vegas is comparable and they didn't get to the finals because of their offensive prowess, they got there because Lehner had a sub 2gaa and pitched shutouts in a quarter of the games he played. Hell even going back to the 2nd round Detroit would still have the worst first line of the bunch. Mantha is the only piece on Detroit's top line that has actual top line potential, Bert is fine, but better suited to a middle 6 position and Larkin since 2017 is 29th among centers for points, with many contender's second line centers being in the same ballpark or better. It gets worse, obviously, if you look since he entered the league where he is in the mid 40s of centers with at least 120 games played (with Zetterberg playing with his bad back and past his prime being ahead of him in ppg)

I will add on what winger98 wrote.

How big of a gap in PPG is significant enough to matter? I'm looking at PPG since 17/18 and Barzal has been pretty solid producing at a .89 clip. Toews at .85, Seguin at .89, Backstrom at .90, ROR at .85, William Karlsson at .79. Larkin has put up .83 ppg. The difference between Larkin and Backstrom is about 20 points. Over 3 seasons. With Larkin being on significantly worse teams with less help. If Toews, Seguin, Backstrom, ROR, and Karlsson can be guys who lead their teams at center to the Cup finals and multiple playoffs, I'm not sure why Larkin couldn't. If he elite? No, he's not McDavid, Crosby, etc. But neither are Seguin. Or Backstrom. Or ROR. Or Karlsson.

We don't necessarily need a guy who produces better than Larkin at center. We need someone to slot in behind him that is pretty close. Or a wing who can slot in on that second line who can work as the center (even if I don't like that set up).

^

Yzerman has brought in the players to help out Larkin, Mantha and Bertuzzi.

Larkin has had little help. Mantha too.
We will have to watch next season and see how they develop. Maybe they are just good 2nd line players.
In that case we really have a long way to go.
I do not know what we have in Hronek and Seider.

I defend Blashill and I am probably the only posted doing so. The reason is that I think that all players that we needed to take the next step have done so.

 

[Shaman464]

I will add on what winger98 wrote.

^

Yzerman has brought in the players to help out Larkin, Mantha and Bertuzzi.

Larkin has had little help. Mantha too.
We will have to watch next season and see how they develop. Maybe they are just good 2nd line players.
In that case we really have a long way to go.
I do not know what we have in Hronek and Seider.

I defend Blashill and I am probably the only posted doing so. The reason is that I think that all players that we needed to take the next step have done so.

I also defend Blash. But Larkin isn't going to be significantly better than he is at this point. He doesn't have that next gear that the true best have. He's very good. But, his overall stat and skills package is more suited as a second line center on a contender with few teams having any level of success with a player like Larkin anchoring a first line.

 

[Shaman464]

I think they are a great second line on a contender, I think the reality is when it is time to do some winning, Bertuzzi is the guy that isn't going to be up that high in the lineup. It isn't really Larkin or Mantha that don't have top line ability to me. I love Bert and his game, I like that he can play up the lineup and I think there is a ton of skill to him. But for me he isn't a top line winger. They have great chemistry, but I think one of our building moments with now three big time skill wingers is going to be Larkin and Mantha getting one of the young guns at some point and that really being the line shortly. We will see though, because I can see the argument for Raymond and Zadina running a line together with Ras/Veleno/Trade/Draft Pick/UFA. But I think people get locked into this.

Larkin might not be a top 15 center, I don't think he is all that far off though. He has the ability to dominate. He was good after he got over the injuries to start the year. I am curious to see how he responds to the C next year. I agree you don't really need more than him. What you likely need is another guy in a similar stratosphere as Larkin though behind him. Think Bergeron/Krejci as an example. But we will have to see how the next couple drafts or free agency goes. I believe Mantha and Larkin have 1st line talent and play at that level often enough for me. I think Bert is still more your 2nd/3rd line tweener that can play up and down the lineup.

Had we drafted Byfield it is likely Larkin would have taken the most forward minutes anyway. People can get locked into first or second line, they can be fluid on certain teams. Larkin needs help, the guy doesn't need to be better than him, but he needs to have more than just his line rolling over the boards that can hurt you, which was the problem last year not really him or his line.

@AintLifeGrand welcome aboard. There have been brighter times in the franchise and actually darker times, but just barely on the darker ones. The Wings have a ways to go, some nice pieces and the lots of flexibility right now for building. We are going to need some luck and a few more developments that are hard to guess. It is an organization with a proud history and I am always glad to hear about another fan making the right decision and rooting for my favorite team in all of sports.

The problem with the Boston comparison is that Boston did a lot of their winning around having a great defense, great goaltending and a lot of scoring depth while playing a grinding game. The problem with Boston is that teams know how to beat that. They cover Marchand and Pastrňák who do all the heavy lifting for Boston on the scoresheet an all of the sudden they aren't getting very far. And that's assuming Detroit has two wingers that can be good for around 80 goals and 175 points between them any given year. But, if you watched the COVID cup, when they were shutdown Bergeron wasn't doing them any favors.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

The problem with the Boston comparison is that Boston did a lot of their winning around having a great defense, great goaltending and a lot of scoring depth while playing a grinding game. The problem with Boston is that teams know how to beat that. They cover Marchand and Pastrňák who do all the heavy lifting for Boston on the scoresheet an all of the sudden they aren't getting very far. And that's assuming Detroit has two wingers that can be good for around 80 goals and 175 points between them any given year. But, if you watched the COVID cup, when they were shutdown Bergeron wasn't doing them any favors.

The same Boston that lost in game 7 two years ago of the finals and paced the league all of last season pre-pandemic. I mean Rask pulling the chute was their biggest undoing a long with Marchand and Pasta being seriously hurt four and five month surgery time tables. But that Boston model has been pretty successful. I know the one cup but that happens from time to time. They have been a good team for awhile.

Also at 4th and 6th overall we better hope Zadina and Raymond are bug offensive contributors that help maximize guys like Larkin, they should help him up his point totals in the bigger picture.

 

[Shaman464]

The same Boston that lost in game 7 two years ago of the finals and paced the league all of last season pre-pandemic. I mean Rask pulling the chute was their biggest undoing a long with Marchand and Pasta being seriously hurt four and five month surgery time tables. But that Boston model has been pretty successful. I know the one cup but that happens from time to time. They have been a good team for awhile.

Also at 4th and 6th overall we better hope Zadina and Raymond are bug offensive contributors that help maximize guys like Larkin, they should help him up his point totals in the bigger picture.

I just don't see it. Boston did it on the back of having two elite goaltenders, a freak of nature #1 defender, and two wingers that would outscore any player on the team post 2010 on the Wings' squad. And without at least one more high level center that ship has sailed anyway, because one Larkin and then a warm body anchoring the second line isn't anywhere near the Boston model.

 

[14ari13]

I also defend Blash. But Larkin isn't going to be significantly better than he is at this point. He doesn't have that next gear that the true best have. He's very good. But, his overall stat and skills package is more suited as a second line center on a contender with few teams having any level of success with a player like Larkin anchoring a first line.

I think we have 5-7 "core" players. We have to build around them. We don't really know which prospects will pan out. None of our players are close to their prime. The coming season will tell us a bit more how good they can become and who we have to cut out.

When I see Yzermans moves this summer I see that he wants to give them a good chance to develop and prove themselves and then he will assess them and the direction of the team.

 

[Shaman464]

I think we have 5-7 "core" players. We have to build around them. We don't really know which prospects will pan out. None of our players are close to their prime. The coming season will tell us a bit more how good they can become and who we have to cut out.

When I see Yzermans moves this summer I see that he wants to give them a good chance to develop and prove themselves and then he will assess them and the direction of the team.

Bert, Mantha, and Larkin are firmly in their prime.

 

[14ari13]

Bert, Mantha, and Larkin are firmly in their prime.

It depends what you define as prime. Great players have their prime extended. Lidstrom for instance was in his prime almost 80% of his career. Those 3 are not grat talent so their prime will be max 40% of their career.

I think only Mantha has reached his potential and entered his prime. He might improve a little bit.

Larkin and Bertuzzi a year or 2.

 

[Shaman464]

It depends what you define as prime. Great players have their prime extended. Lidstrom for instance was in his prime almost 80% of his career. Those 3 are not grat talent so their prime will be max 40% of their career.

I think only Mantha has reached his potential and entered his prime. He might improve a little bit.

Larkin and Bertuzzi a year or 2.

Bert is 25, and his skill set isn't going to change drastically in a year or two. He's going to be a 0.5 ppg player on a top line, probably 0.35-0.4ppg on a middle line guy who will bring energy when's engaged.

 

[Gniwder]

Bert, Mantha, and Larkin are firmly in their prime.

All 3 still have huge holes in their game, if this is the best they have to offer then they aren't the pieces to build around. If anything we need players that are better at the PP. Mantha is a legit 1st line player but he's gotta stop fighting.

 

[Shaman464]

All 3 still have huge holes in their game, if this is the best they have to offer then they aren't the pieces to build around. If anything we need players that are better at the PP. Mantha is a legit 1st line player but he's gotta stop fighting.

But Mantha broken hand is my favorite time of the year.

 

[14ari13]

All 3 still have huge holes in their game, if this is the best they have to offer then they aren't the pieces to build around. If anything we need players that are better at the PP. Mantha is a legit 1st line player but he's gotta stop fighting.

They are the best we have at the moment.

We will see what Fabbri, Zedina and Hronek have to offer.

 

[Oddbob]

I think we have 5-7 "core" players. We have to build around them. We don't really know which prospects will pan out. None of our players are close to their prime. The coming season will tell us a bit more how good they can become and who we have to cut out.

When I see Yzermans moves this summer I see that he wants to give them a good chance to develop and prove themselves and then he will assess them and the direction of the team.

Larkin is the only current Core guy. Mantha has 48 pts as his highest, as if he is injured all the time and/or doesn't do better than 48 pts how much of a core guy is he? Bertuzzi is more of a very good support piece. Hronek is way to earlier to know what we really have, and Seider, Zadina and Raymond are all hopeful Core guys, but nowhere close to that yet.

 

[14ari13]

Larkin is the only current Core guy. Mantha has 48 pts as his highest, as if he is injured all the time and/or doesn't do better than 48 pts how much of a core guy is he? Bertuzzi is more of a very good support piece. Hronek is way to earlier to know what we really have, and Seider, Zadina and Raymond are all hopeful Core guys, but nowhere close to that yet.

And yet that is the best we have. We had better hope they reach their potential otherwise the dead things will be here to stay for a long long time.

 

[Bench]

Mantha has 48 pts as his highest, as if he is injured all the time and/or doesn't do better than 48 pts how much of a core guy is he?

Mantha's injury last year was insanely bad luck. We needed a full year from him to see how he does with that workload.

The thing with Mantha, is that when he's on the ice healthy, he looks like the best player for the Red Wings. So I still think he's our only truly elite player, but I don't really have enough data to say if that level of play is sustainable for him. It's such a terrible spot for us to be in with him having a contract coming up.

 

[Oddbob]

Mantha's injury last year was insanely bad luck. We needed a full year from him to see how he does with that workload.

The thing with Mantha, is that when he's on the ice healthy, he looks like the best player for the Red Wings. So I still think he's our only truly elite player, but I don't really have enough data to say if that level of play is sustainable for him. It's such a terrible spot for us to be in with him having a contract coming up.

That is my issue with Mantha. When he is on and healthy, he is an awesome force out there, but at this point in his career he is both hurt a lot, and unmotivated for at least half his games. To me the only games where he takes over are the ones where he gets mad at some point, but that doens't happen very often. He needs to bring it every game if he is a star player, otherwise he is a secondary scorer.