Proposal: Johnsson to San Jose (offseason)

[ACC1224]

Can Johnsson only be traded to San Jose?
I'd think he'd return a 3rd, maybe a little more to them but I could see that increasing if he were offered around the league.

 

[Buds17]

Can Johnsson only be traded to San Jose?
I'd think he'd return a 3rd, maybe a little more to them but I could see that increasing if he were offered around the league.

In the event any return is based around a draft pick, I wouldn't mind dealing with a non-playoff team.

 

[Bomber0104]

I'm so attached to him at all. I just want to know why we're are trading him. Seems pretty reasonable to me.

"Cap space" isn't a reason. What we are going to use that cap space on is.

"Cap space" will be required to re-sign all of Hyman, Andersen, and Rielly...

$3.4 million of it would definitely help.

 

[kb]

Can Johnsson only be traded to San Jose?
I'd think he'd return a 3rd, maybe a little more to them but I could see that increasing if he were offered around the league.

Sens are usually a good one to grab our players who are owed less real dollars than cap hit. Devils too.

 

[tmlfan98]

Sens are usually a good one to grab our players who are owed less real dollars than cap hit. Devils too.

Yeah I usually use the Sens for these hypothetical Johnsson trade scenarios, but San Jose definitely makes sense too.

 

[LeafChief]

If you look at what Washington paid for Eller a few years back, Johnsson is worth at least a late 2nd.

 

[67Leafs67]

One other thing, most players do not peak at 24 and then gradually fall off... Not the good ones anyways. Most players do not even become respectable NHLers until they 22-24, and they still often get better until they are like 26 or 27 (some continue to get better until they are like 30, but those are less likely cases) and then plateau for like 3-5 years before gradually getting worse once they hit their 30's... But even that typically depends on the player. There are a lot of good players who do not get noticeably worse until they turn 35.

This is simply untrue. There have been a fair number of recent studies on this topic.

- Rob Vollman, Stat Shot: The Ultimate Guide to Hockey Analytics "Most players hit their peak age by age 24 or 25 then decline gradually until age 30, at which point their performance can begin to tumble more noticeably with the risk of absolute collapse by age 34 or 35."
- Josh & Luke Younggren, A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters "This WAR model, for the most part, lines up with the generally held belief that skaters peak around 24-25 years old and decline gradually after that"
- Micah Blake McCurdy, Age Remains Undefeated "Peak age is 24, with inflection points at 31 and 34"

Obviously each player is different, and there are outliers - some major, like Gordie Howe or Jimmy Carson. However, the average aging curve for NHL athletes in pretty clear...peak at age 24, a slow, gradual decrease until 31, then a quicker decrease until 34, and then the possibility of a monumental drop off.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I know there's salary cap considerations here, but if there's a way around that without trading Johnsson I take that route. If he doesn't have nagging injuries or injury based regression, he's going to be a 1st line winger (a top 90 forward in the NHL, not an allstar). He was well into that range in the 18/19 season in terms of offensive production, he's a really good possession player, and he doesn't need to have the puck much to be effective which suits the construction of this team. We do have the luxury of having a few of those guys and seem to keep finding them, but I think this is a trade we'd look back on and be disappointed.

 

[therealkoho]

if anywhere see if the Ducks would be interested and have Kesler's contract coming back

 

[therealkoho]

"Cap space" will be required to re-sign all of Hyman, Andersen, and Rielly...

$3.4 million of it would definitely help.

I'd be surprised if they re-sign Freddie tbh

 

[ACC1224]

I'd be surprised if they re-sign Freddie tbh

Huge decision to make there. I think they re-sign him.

 

[4thline]

I'd be surprised if they re-sign Freddie tbh

And if they do I'd be surprised if he gets more than an inflation adjustment- unless he carries the mail to a cup this year or next.

 

[al secord]

I only think Freddie comes back if we miraculously win the cup this year. However, i do think Johnsson and/or Kapanen get shipped out after the playoffs.

 

[FreeBird]

I'd be surprised if they re-sign Freddie tbh

wh0 will replace him, will owners want to sign or take on salary until the pandemic is resolved

 

[therealkoho]

Huge decision to make there. I think they re-sign him.

depends entirely on his ask or if Scott or Woll are ready

And if they do I'd be surprised if he gets more than an inflation adjustment- unless he carries the mail to a cup this year or next.

and if he does carry the Leafs into the finals, his ask may end up being CareyPriced over market

wh0 will replace him, will owners want to sign or take on salary until the pandemic is resolved

who knows but there's going to be more then a few guys available
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2022/caphit/all/goalies

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

I'd push for a 2nd & 4th for AJ but would settle for a 2nd for Cap Reasons (We NEED DEFENCE)

 

[SeaOfBlue]

This is simply untrue. There have been a fair number of recent studies on this topic.

- Rob Vollman, Stat Shot: The Ultimate Guide to Hockey Analytics "Most players hit their peak age by age 24 or 25 then decline gradually until age 30, at which point their performance can begin to tumble more noticeably with the risk of absolute collapse by age 34 or 35."
- Josh & Luke Younggren, A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters "This WAR model, for the most part, lines up with the generally held belief that skaters peak around 24-25 years old and decline gradually after that"
- Micah Blake McCurdy, Age Remains Undefeated "Peak age is 24, with inflection points at 31 and 34"

Obviously each player is different, and there are outliers - some major, like Gordie Howe or Jimmy Carson. However, the average aging curve for NHL athletes in pretty clear...peak at age 24, a slow, gradual decrease until 31, then a quicker decrease until 34, and then the possibility of a monumental drop off.

Now I do not know about how Vollman did his study, but I looked at the Younggren model and I saw one major concern.

The model accounts for all top 13 players and top 7 defenseman. It does make sense to do it that way, except the one issue that I see (assuming that he adjusted for WAR fluctuations from year to year, but I am assuming they did or that it did not fluctuate enough to make a noticeable difference):

The issue I have is how you can explain a rather drastic drop off at 25/26, but then it changes just as much between 26-29... And I think what starts happening at 25/26 is that these fringe guys who did not have a great WAR in the first place start to fall behind the newer wave of better, non-fringe talent (and since WAR is a dependent variable, they will have a lower WAR and therefore a larger decrease in Overall WAR). Even the non-fringe guys, like a Johnsson, could have a worse WAR simply because younger, more elite guys start to improve while they start to plateau. Having a guy like Nylander, Matthews or Marner getting better does not mean a guy like Johnsson is getting worse. Especially with all three of these analyses starting at a time when younger talent was not usually the best talent (i.e. in 2007 or 2008) to a time when younger talent has started to become a lot more prevalent (2016-2019).

Now I would need to develop something myself to counter this argument formally, and what I could say could be wrong, but that does not mean that I do not have my own doubts about this.

 

[nuck]

A 3rd is not close to worth it. He was a 20g rookie. Riley Stotts, JD Greenway, Rinat Valiev is the likely return on that trade and none of them look like they will ever play 100 NHL games. Way better to bet on the player. Even if they have completely soured on him thats a lousy return. There will be enough trade options they can still get that same 3rd in a couple of months. It seems kind of desperate to move him at a low value just to make certain they can get an Andrew Neilsen return. The guy could still score 50 points. It isn't without risk but he looked legit top 6er beside Matthews as a rookie.

 

[nuck]

I'd be surprised if they re-sign Freddie tbh

If no Freddie they still have to spend for a #1 which Campbell isn't. They either have FA or the same $5M spent on another keeper IMO. I don't see Mango outbound for a 3rd but the cap may still push him out to improve the D.

 

[Big Muddy]

I noticed a lot of proposals recently on CapFriendly (the Armchair GM mode) that were maid by Sharks fans who all suggest trading picks to Toronto for Andreas Johnsson. (here's some from the last few weeks). It seems to be a popular suggestion. The consensus seems to be around a 3rd rounder plus a 5th rounder.

In the offseason, of course. Would you guys be good with trading Johnsson for just picks from San Jose? We'll likely need the cap space. What picks would be enough for you to pull the trigger?

There is no question that he is a prime candidate to be moved, and often mentioned as the most likely guy we should move. The bottom line is we simply need the cap space, and probably two of the three middle six wingers, earning ~$3 mil are the guys going. Under normal times, and without injury, he should return a late first... but he's had that injury, and with Covid, and a flat cap, we aren't going to get that. I don't think it's so much as to what is an acceptable return, as much as what is the market offering for him?? It might not be what we want, but we are going to have to take what we can get.

3rd is fine, wouldn't expect much more than that.
IMO, Dubas should have moved him last off season.

A 3rd & a 5th would be great. But, I doubt we get that in this market.

 

[Community]

Always better to be proactive in solving your issues. Even if the Leafs didn't need to clear his cap hit (which they know they do), it's better to be proactive than reactive.

The Leafs are going to get squeezed greatly on the return if they wait to the last second to trade Johnsson because they have to, and then are forced to take the best offer in a very tight spot.

Well that isnt true as often as you think... especially when you're dealing with young players.

Thr poster you were responding to wasnt suggesting that we wait until the last second. He was just stating it would be smart to know what we will use the capspace on before making a move.

What if we move Johnsson and Dermott wants to get paid big $ that we cant afford? Then we have just traded a good middle 6 winger for a lacklustre return for no reason.

What if Dermott and Mikheyev are fine signing hometown deals and we didnt need to trade Johnsson to get under the cap?

Or, what if a deal comes along where Dubas can trade Johnsson + a dman for a D upgrade? He would be worth more in a player deal than as a capdump for picks.

 

[nuck]

It really has nothing to do with "screwing the Leafs". This applies to any team in the Leafs situation, because there are other teams in the same situation, or worse. The Leafs and many other teams will have to trade someone away for cap space - there is no other option to ice a complete team - None. Plus as you rightly pointed out, the number of teams that can take players for picks is extremely limited.

Given that scenario, what remotely valid argument could anyone make for having the Leafs moving to the back of the line and waiting around for the other teams to solve their cap issues by trading players for picks before the Leafs do? That would be asinine.

They have to get ahead of this and be proactive. With a flat cap for the next couple of seasons, there is no relief coming in the form of a higher cap.

But there are still a bunch of clubs that have never spent to the cap because they have their internal number and he would look good to them. AJ is front loaded so thats like $2.5M per. It isn't like trying to drop Marlowe on another club in that he is good enough to make you move an existing roster player if all your top 9 forwards cant score 20g. I guess it kind of depends on the level of desperation and competition to dump salary, and whether the league is qoing to let that happen or offer some other kind of relief. They did allow buyouts to address a CBA salary correction.

I think its too early to predict if there will be some kind of frenzy. Not every club wants to take a bad player to fill out their cap space so how many AJ or better quality players are going to be offered up? Maybe teams take their time. Maybe he is outbound to a club with a RD to trade. We seem to be locked into the idea of a UFA solution but we don't know that KD is.

Now I could be totally out to lunch too. I never thought it would cost them a 1st to ditch one year of Marleau.

,

 

[kb]

Well that isnt true as often as you think... especially when you're dealing with young players.

Thr poster you were responding to wasnt suggesting that we wait until the last second. He was just stating it would be smart to know what we will use the capspace on before making a move.

What if we move Johnsson and Dermott wants to get paid big $ that we cant afford? Then we have just traded a good middle 6 winger for a lacklustre return for no reason.

What if Dermott and Mikheyev are fine signing hometown deals and we didnt need to trade Johnsson to get under the cap?

Or, what if a deal comes along where Dubas can trade Johnsson + a dman for a D upgrade? He would be worth more in a player deal than as a capdump for picks.

Why would they shoot themselves in the foot by taking a team friendly deal for next year when they know the cap will be tight in Toronto for years without a trade? The Leafs can't sign Dermott and Mikheyev if there isn't a trade to free cap. Period. That just the reality. They aren't signing for league minimum, and both are eligible for offer sheets. A $2.1 million offer sheet gives the Leafs a 3rd in return. That's tremendous value for 2 fine young players.

Is that a road the Leafs want to go down?

If Dermott and Mikheyev were going to sign team friendly deals, do you not think they would have already done so? There is nothing preventing it.

 

[kb]

But there are still a bunch of clubs that have never spent to the cap because they have their internal number and he would look good to them. AJ is front loaded so thats like $2.5M per. It isn't like trying to drop Marlowe on another club in that he is good enough to make you move an existing roster player if all your top 9 forwards cant score 20g. I guess it kind of depends on the level of desperation and competition to dump salary, and whether the league is qoing to let that happen or offer some other kind of relief. They did allow buyouts to address a CBA salary correction.

I think its too early to predict if there will be some kind of frenzy. Not every club wants to take a bad player to fill out their cap space so how many AJ or better quality players are going to be offered up? Maybe teams take their time. Maybe he is outbound to a club with a RD to trade. We seem to be locked into the idea of a UFA solution but we don't know that KD is.

Now I could be totally out to lunch too. I never thought it would cost them a 1st to ditch one year of Marleau.

,

Oh, I agree he should have decent value - as long as they don't wait around as Tampa, St. Louis, and the Islanders are in the same boat and will be looking to move out players the second the season is over. That is where the risk is for the Leafs. They have to be out front there, and be very proactive.

 

[nuck]

Now I do not know about how Vollman did his study, but I looked at the Younggren model and I saw one major concern.

The model accounts for all top 13 players and top 7 defenseman. It does make sense to do it that way, except the one issue that I see (assuming that he adjusted for WAR fluctuations from year to year, but I am assuming they did or that it did not fluctuate enough to make a noticeable difference):

View attachment 353194

The issue I have is how you can explain a rather drastic drop off at 25/26, but then it changes just as much between 26-29... And I think what starts happening at 25/26 is that these fringe guys who did not have a great WAR in the first place start to fall behind the newer wave of better, non-fringe talent (and since WAR is a dependent variable, they will have a lower WAR and therefore a larger decrease in Overall WAR). Even the non-fringe guys, like a Johnsson, could have a worse WAR simply because younger, more elite guys start to improve while they start to plateau. Having a guy like Nylander, Matthews or Marner getting better does not mean a guy like Johnsson is getting worse. Especially with all three of these analyses starting at a time when younger talent was not usually the best talent (i.e. in 2007 or 2008) to a time when younger talent has started to become a lot more prevalent (2016-2019).

Now I would need to develop something myself to counter this argument formally, and what I could say could be wrong, but that does not mean that I do not have my own doubts about this.

Have you ever seen anything like the above that compares the results of Euros and average college players to Major Junior players and college superstars? That seems a bit specific but if you aren't a Toews or a Joe Murphy or Craig Simpson you are probably nowhere near the pros at age 20. HOFers Brett Hull, Adam Oates, Marty St Louis and a ton of Euros who weren't high draft picks never played their first NHL game before they were 23-24 and it usually took a year or two to adapt to the NHL speed and style.

Their growth trajectory doesn't resemble that of Junior player in that these guys can become big stars at 25+ when the max level has been more or less already set for most Junior guys. What age are they when they first play against men, or when they first play a pro length season? The different levels of competition along the way seems to heavily influence when the peak happens.