Player Discussion John Carlson - Vol. 1

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Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
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Any idea of what salary Carlson and his reps are looking for on his next contract?
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AlexBrovechkin8

At least there was 2018.
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Feb 18, 2012
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:laugh:

Ok. Thanks I guess.
Before De Haan's season ending injury, I expected De Haan to be badly overpaid on July 1st.
Now I am unsure if he gets the $5m per he wants.

I expect Carlson to get at least $55mm on this upcoming contract. If it's with the Caps I could see 8x7 or 8x8. If it's not with the Caps I see 7x8 or 7x9.
 

maacoshark

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Jul 22, 2017
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I think it's absurd to pay Carlson $8M. He's been excellent this year but his play doesn't justify anything over $7.5M.
If 8M is absurd then how is 7.5M justifiable. I think he will likely get over paid because of the lack of dmen available.
 

Alexander the Gr8

Registered User
May 2, 2013
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Toronto
I think 7.5M is too high. I bet we overpay him.

I think it's gonna be like Kuznetsov when he pressured the Caps into giving him more money than initially expected by threatening to leave. There is a high demand for first pairing Ds and Carlson knows that, he's gonna take advantage for sure.
 

um

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Sep 4, 2008
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I'm more willing to overpay for Carlson than I was willing to pay for Oshie and Kuznetsov. 1Ds are incredibly hard to get.
 

twabby

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Mar 9, 2010
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FWIW Matt Cane has Carlson pegged at around $8.0M to $8.5M AAV in his salary model depending on the length:



He admits there are issues with his model so take it with a huge grain of salt. But given Carlson's season to date it wouldn't shock me if Carlson ends up coming in at $8M for 7-8 years.

Part of the problem with evaluating Carlson's inconsistent play especially when it comes to his possession numbers is that his primary partners over the years have been dreadful. Orpik, Alzner, Erskine, Schultz, Hillen, and Morrisonn have been his partners for 75% of his 5v5 TOI over his career. Some of these guys are out of the league, some are/were borderline NHLers, and the rest are 6Ds at best. Not shockingly when he's been with competent partners (Schmidt, Orlov, Djoos) his 5v5 numbers are drastically better. Especially this season, there is a noticeable difference in Carlson's numbers when he's with Orpik vs. Djoos.

I'd say bite the bullet and give him a good offer. He adds enough value in all 3 zones and all situations to make it worth it. He's also one of the few Washington players who seems to step up his game come playoff time. It appears that he's over whatever injury plagued him for the past two seasons, and besides that he's been durable over his career. A 7 or 8 year contract isn't ideal from Washington's POV but it shouldn't age too terribly, unlike the Oshie contract.
 

maacoshark

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I'm more willing to overpay for Carlson than I was willing to pay for Oshie and Kuznetsov. 1Ds are incredibly hard to get.
Ya I think the Oshie signing might have been a mistake. By his standards last season was a career year but he was on a line with Ovi and Backstrom and on one of the best pp units in the league. His numbers were inflated. He had a good start to the season but looks like he is back to his old self.
I agree that we need to sign Carlson. Like you said number one dmen are hard to get.
 

txpd

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Jan 25, 2003
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I am curious. Can some of you that want to not resign Carlson list a defenseman in the league that you think is comparable to Carlson? Just wondering how good people think he is. My view is that if he leaves the Caps take at least one big step backwards in at least 2 areas of the game. That includes having the best available replacement
 

Alexander the Gr8

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Ya I think the Oshie signing might have been a mistake. By his standards last season was a career year but he was on a line with Ovi and Backstrom and on one of the best pp units in the league. His numbers were inflated. He had a good start to the season but looks like he is back to his old self.
I agree that we need to sign Carlson. Like you said number one dmen are hard to get.

Let's not forget Oshie had 2-3 injuries this season including a concussion. He's going to be one of our best players again, just wait.

Signing Carlson is a necessity. I wish there was a better D out there on the market but there isn't.
 

maacoshark

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Jul 22, 2017
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Let's not forget Oshie had 2-3 injuries this season including a concussion. He's going to be one of our best players again, just wait.

Signing Carlson is a necessity. I wish there was a better D out there on the market but there isn't.
I dont mind Oshie but I am not sold on him. I think playing with Ovi and Backstrom inflated his numbers the past couple seasons and we gave him a big contract because of it. He was never very consistent with the Blues and it us looking like che is back to that form. I really hope he can turn it around.
 

hockeykicker

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Dec 3, 2014
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Ya I think the Oshie signing might have been a mistake. By his standards last season was a career year but he was on a line with Ovi and Backstrom and on one of the best pp units in the league. His numbers were inflated. He had a good start to the season but looks like he is back to his old self.
I agree that we need to sign Carlson. Like you said number one dmen are hard to get.

You can't really think oshie was a mistake right?
 

maacoshark

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Jul 22, 2017
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You can't really think oshie was a mistake right?
Possibly. We paid him based on what he did last year which was a career year for him. Of course it was a career year, he was with Ovi and Backstrom. Obviously no one followed him before he got here. He wasnt great in St Louis.
We might have over paid him. If not we definitely signed him for too long. 8 years for a player that is in his 30s. I dont think we got a good deal with Oshie at all. Only time will tell.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
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You can't really think oshie was a mistake right?

Outperforming his contract since he's been here isn't enough I guess. One head injury and the "I told you so" band starts playing. Not liking the term is one thing...attempting to piss on a player who's done everything you want to see from a core team member isn't enough I guess. Some fans have unrealistic expectations.
 
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Alexander the Gr8

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May 2, 2013
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I dont mind Oshie but I am not sold on him. I think playing with Ovi and Backstrom inflated his numbers the past couple seasons and we gave him a big contract because of it. He was never very consistent with the Blues and it us looking like che is back to that form. I really hope he can turn it around.

We signed a player who does it all, a jack of all trades. Kills penalties, scores goals, is dangerous on the PP, a decent playmaker and very gritty/physical. Yes it's a long term commitment but $5.5M for a guy like Oshie is more than fair.
 

traparatus

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Oct 19, 2012
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I am curious. Can some of you that want to not resign Carlson list a defenseman in the league that you think is comparable to Carlson? Just wondering how good people think he is. My view is that if he leaves the Caps take at least one big step backwards in at least 2 areas of the game. That includes having the best available replacement

Carlson is upper mid range 1st pair d-man whose numbers are boosted by playing a large portion of his career along side great players and getting spoon fed premium PP time. He is great in transition, average in the defensive zone.

He is in no way unique or once-in-a-lifetime player. If we were to replace Carlson with, for example, Justin Faulk it wouldn't make one ounce of difference to team success. Throw Carlson on Canes' roster and his value would plummet.
 

txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
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Carlson is upper mid range 1st pair d-man whose numbers are boosted by playing a large portion of his career along side great players and getting spoon fed premium PP time. He is great in transition, average in the defensive zone.

He is in no way unique or once-in-a-lifetime player. If we were to replace Carlson with, for example, Justin Faulk it wouldn't make one ounce of difference to team success. Throw Carlson on Canes' roster and his value would plummet.

Spoon fed? He is not unique or once in a lifetime. Never said he was Bobby freaking Orr. He is however one of 10 or 12 defensemen in the league capable of his level of quality play with his skill set. Justin Faulk eh? We could get two years out of him before his contract was up and too expensive to resign. Except that he isn't available.
 

txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
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New Bern, NC
Possibly. We paid him based on what he did last year which was a career year for him. Of course it was a career year, he was with Ovi and Backstrom. Obviously no one followed him before he got here. He wasnt great in St Louis.
We might have over paid him. If not we definitely signed him for too long. 8 years for a player that is in his 30s. I dont think we got a good deal with Oshie at all. Only time will tell.

yea, its been reported that one Cap after another told MacLellan in exit interviews that he had to keep Oshie. You would have let him walk?
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
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10 or 12? You have him as a top 10-12 D? I’ve always had him in the 20-30 range myself. I guess some people are giving him a bump for a contract year performance. I suspect he comes down to earth points-wise after this year sadly. I’d love to see him prove be me wrong.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
64,376
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Carlson is upper mid range 1st pair d-man whose numbers are boosted by playing a large portion of his career along side great players and getting spoon fed premium PP time. He is great in transition, average in the defensive zone.

He is in no way unique or once-in-a-lifetime player. If we were to replace Carlson with, for example, Justin Faulk it wouldn't make one ounce of difference to team success. Throw Carlson on Canes' roster and his value would plummet.

Who he plays with is irrelevant. He’s producing. That’s relevant in the real world. He’s also earning his top PP time, it’s no gift he’s being spoon fed.
 

traparatus

Registered User
Oct 19, 2012
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Spoon fed? He is not unique or once in a lifetime. Never said he was Bobby freaking Orr. He is however one of 10 or 12 defensemen in the league capable of his level of quality play with his skill set. Justin Faulk eh? We could get two years out of him before his contract was up and too expensive to resign. Except that he isn't available.


Who he plays with is irrelevant. He’s producing. That’s relevant in the real world. He’s also earning his top PP time, it’s no gift he’s being spoon fed.

What do you mean irrelevant? There are plenty of defensemen in the league who can put up points while standing 30 feet away from Ovechkin. It's not some kind of unique skill. Certainly a lot more than 10-12. Carlson is also untouchable on the 1st PP unit.

Carlson is an $8m 1st pair defenseman in the same way that Oshie is a 33 goal scorer. They are on the ice with Ovechkin.

That's why I brought up Faulk. Put Carlson on the Canes' and he is getting 6 million on his next contract. Put Faulk on the Caps and he is getting 8m.
 
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