Player Discussion Joel Eriksson Ek: The 2nd Act

[Dr Jan Itor]

Cirelli and Monahan would both have to have significant additions to get both Dumba and Ek.

My hope is that Guerin wants to use this year to explore Ek as a potential top 6 center before the expansion draft to see if he's worth using one of the protection slots on. Then again I don't think Dumba will be around anyway so we're probably going 7-3-1.

If Dumba+Ek can get a real nice top 6 center, do it. Otherwise, figure out another way to bridge the value gap between Dumba and Monahan/Cirelli/whoever, if there is one.

Probably an add with Monahan, but I don't know about significant.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Nobody’s been a bigger proponent of JEE over the past few years than me, but you guys have gone way overboard on his potential. JEE is a very good 3rd line center and a low end 2nd line center. If you’re expecting more than that you’re going to be very disappointed IMO.

We aren't really expecting anything. Just trying to make better sense of the season he just had.

 

[AKL]

Probably an add with Monahan, but I don't know about significant.

Dumba for Monahan is largely fair if you ignore team needs. Maybe a small plus from Minnesota. If Calgary values Dumba as a 30 point defenseman like you do, they're not trading Monahan for him in the first place. Adding Ek is overkill.

Cirelli has become entirely overrated. He requires a bigger plus than Monahan does.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Probably an add with Monahan, but I don't know about significant.

Only issue with Monahan is Calgary needs a top line center as well.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Only issue with Monahan is Calgary needs a top line center as well.

I've seen their fans move Lindholm into the top line spot.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I've seen their fans move Lindholm into the top line spot.

I've seen otherwise that Lindholm is a top guy. He has the numbers, but they keep mention that if they send off Monahan they need a top 6 center back or a better center back.

 

[AKL]

Lindholm is a capable top 6 center for them, but the problem is their RW is weaker than their C. Lindholm is one of the few right handed forwards they have, and the only top 6 one. Thus they keep him at RW.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

To be honest, I never fully understood all of the Monahan smoke, but it did/does appear to be there in some way. Though probably most of it was just frustration about how they bowed out to Dallas.

 

[thestonedkoala]

To be honest, I never fully understood all of the Monahan smoke, but it did/does appear to be there in some way. Though probably most of it was just frustration about how they bowed out to Dallas.

I think they are kicking the tires on a bunch of centers.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Hey guys, what kind of player is Ek projecting now?

 

[AKL]

Hey guys, what kind of player is Ek projecting now?

Most likely projects as a lower end 2C that should probably be playing 3C. Could still be an average 2C. He improved by leaps and bounds this season, so I don't really want to put a cap on where he is now.

There's some pretty good reason to believe he could be a Danault level player in the next couple years. Defensively not as good, but probably a better goal scorer too.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Most likely projects as a lower end 2C that should probably be playing 3C. Could still be an average 2C. He improved by leaps and bounds this season, so I don't really want to put a cap on where he is now.

There's some pretty good reason to believe he could be a Danault level player in the next couple years. Defensively not as good, but probably a better goal scorer too.

If I’m being totally honest, I have no idea what Calgary management is thinking around Monahan. I think he could be available in the right deal, but I don’t think he’s being actively shopped but I’m sure Calgary is listening.

Dumba would fit our needs on the backend great. But then we have a huge hole for a 1C. Signing someone like Hall won’t fix that and then we would likely move Hanifin to fill the hole of Monahan but I also don’t know what that looks like.

I like Ek, but I’m not sure he’s the piece that would make the Flames bite on doing Monahan for Dumba. Value is all close though IMO.

 

[AKL]

If I’m being totally honest, I have no idea what Calgary management is thinking around Monahan. I think he could be available in the right deal, but I don’t think he’s being actively shopped but I’m sure Calgary is listening.

Dumba would fit our needs on the backend great. But then we have a huge hole for a 1C. Signing someone like Hall won’t fix that and then we would likely move Hanifin to fill the hole of Monahan but I also don’t know what that looks like.

I like Ek, but I’m not sure he’s the piece that would make the Flames bite on doing Monahan for Dumba. Value is all close though IMO.

It wouldn't be Dumba+Ek for Monahan unless a fairly significant piece were coming back with him.

Dumba for Monahan makes sense for us, Ek+ for Monahan makes sense for us, but both for Monahan doesn't.

That would basically be the inverse equivalent of Monahan+Andersson, to us.

 

[2Pair]

If I’m being totally honest, I have no idea what Calgary management is thinking around Monahan. I think he could be available in the right deal, but I don’t think he’s being actively shopped but I’m sure Calgary is listening.

Dumba would fit our needs on the backend great. But then we have a huge hole for a 1C. Signing someone like Hall won’t fix that and then we would likely move Hanifin to fill the hole of Monahan but I also don’t know what that looks like.

I like Ek, but I’m not sure he’s the piece that would make the Flames bite on doing Monahan for Dumba. Value is all close though IMO.

I don't see any chance that Monahan gets both Dumba and Ek

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

That’s totally fair guys. Like I said I think the value is close but I’m not sure the Flames pull the trigger on it. I think it depends how much our management likes Dumba.

 

[57special]

We'll see what EK can do with better opportunities this year, but there have been no signs of offensive brilliance from him so far. I am hoping he develops some more in that area, but so far he has been used as a shutdown C, with almost no PP TOI. He's more of a dogged crasher and banger than a finesse player. If CAL have no plan B for a #1C after they trade Monahan, then I would question why they would do it.

 

[2Pair]

That’s totally fair guys. Like I said I think the value is close but I’m not sure the Flames pull the trigger on it. I think it depends how much our management likes Dumba.

Question for you. Why is it Monahan in all of the talks and not Lindholm?

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Question for you. Why is it Monahan in all of the talks and not Lindholm?

Lindholm won’t be moved. He’s a near elite defensive player, he’s versatile and extremely smart. Monahan is an elite finisher, average skater, average playmaker, average defensively, when he’s not scoring sometimes you don’t notice him much. But his production makes him a 1C.

Lindholm isn’t ideal to play at C, but he can do it. Overall he’s a more complete player and management loves him. I like Monahan a lot as well, you can tell he really cares but his style of play makes it seem like he’s not engaged at times even though I feel he is. He’s got an amazing knack for finding the soft spots on the ice and scoring goals.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Lindholm won’t be moved. He’s a near elite defensive player, he’s versatile and extremely smart. Monahan is an elite finisher, average skater, average playmaker, average defensively, when he’s not scoring sometimes you don’t notice him much. But his production makes him a 1C.

Lindholm isn’t ideal to play at C, but he can do it. Overall he’s a more complete player and management loves him. I like Monahan a lot as well, you can tell he really cares but his style of play makes it seem like he’s not engaged at times even though I feel he is. He’s got an amazing knack for finding the soft spots on the ice and scoring goals.

That is one reason I want him. He may not be the speedster but he can finish and we don’t have many finishers.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

That is one reason I want him. He may not be the speedster but he can finish and we don’t have many finishers.

Yeah honestly I think Monahan is better than prime Ryan Johanson, he’s a fantastic finisher. He’s not bad defensively, he’s gotten much better in this area but he does not touch the game in many ways if he’s not scoring. IMO that’s the only reason he’s not viewed as an elite player because he doesn’t really drive the play. He has pretty soft hands in that makes really underrated dishes in the offensive zone but he’s not known for playmaking ability.

I kinda only want to deal him for an upgrade at C but I’m not sure that’s possible.

What’s the scouting report on Dumba?

 

[Bazeek]

So with Staal gone, and external center options beaten to death, I decided to take a medium-sized dive into Eriksson Ek's numbers to see if there might be anything more there.

2017-18 season
20/21 years old
75 games
6 ES goals (7 per 82)
16 ES points (17 per 82)
12:45 total TOI/game
11:21 5v5 TOI/game
0:05 PP TOI/game
4.24% shooting %
Winnik and Foligno most common linemates

2018-19 season
21/22 years old
58 games
7 ES goals (10 per 82)
14 ES points (20 per 82)
13:30 total TOI/game
11:39 5v5 TOI/game
0:06 PP TOI/game
6.54% shooting %
Greenway, Foligno and Kunin most common linemates

2019-20 season
22/23 years old
62 games
7 goals (9 per 82)
27 points (36 per 82)
15:43 total TOI/game
12:49 5v5 TOI/game
0:10 PP TOI/game
7.61% shooting %
Greenway, Kunin and Foligno most common linemates

Marginal improvement from 2017-18 to 2019 in basically everything. Larger improvement from 2018-19 to 2019-20 with fairly sizeable jumps in every thing (production, ice time, linemates).

What if Eriksson Ek got 15 minutes ES TOI/game + 1 minute PP TOI/game + Fiala/Kaprizov/Zuccarello/Boldy as most common linemates? Where would you honestly think that 9 goals per 82 and 36 points per 82 would go? We're also talking about 24-28 years old vs. 22/23.

I kind of skipped over this post, but I was looking through some of Eriksson-Ek's 5v5 numbers on NaturalStatTrick and they're better than I had expected. Numbers are all 5v5; ranks are all league-wide vs centers (or whoever NST has listed as a "C" anyway) with 500+ minutes played.

Individual
26 points
- tied for 66th with Getzlaf, Trocheck, Dvorak
- a point better than Bergeron, Seguin, Kadri, Monahan
11 first assists
- tied for 47th with Matthews, Zibanejad, Tavares, Domi
- a point better than Couturier, Dubois
92 shots
- tied for 91st with Duchene
7 goals
- tied for 117th with Trocheck, Suzuki, Marner, O'Reilly
- one better than Horvat

On Ice
54.06 xGF%
- 35th in the league
- slightly better than Nicklas Backstrom and Sebastian Aho
23.26 xGA
- 28th in the league
57.81 HDCF%
- 6th in the league
- Better than Cirelli

So very good possession stats, especially considering his usage, which is about what I expected. But his 5v5 production already seems to be there for a top-6 center. The goal-scoring and shooting isn't great, but when I look at some of the names around him it doesn't seem like such a big deal.

It's hard not to see a player that looks like a top-6 center if he's given powerplay time. I'm not sure that his tool set really justifies giving him that time.... but I'm not sure it doesn't, either. If he can improve his faceoffs enough, does he justify his spot on one of those units? I am increasingly curious to see what the guy does with the opportunities he's likely to get next year.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

I kind of skipped over this post, but I was looking through some of Eriksson-Ek's 5v5 numbers on NaturalStatTrick and they're better than I had expected. Numbers are all 5v5; ranks are all league-wide vs centers (or whoever NST has listed as a "C" anyway) with 500+ minutes played.

Individual
26 points
- tied for 66th with Getzlaf, Trocheck, Dvorak
- a point better than Bergeron, Seguin, Kadri, Monahan
11 first assists
- tied for 47th with Matthews, Zibanejad, Tavares, Domi
- a point better than Couturier, Dubois
92 shots
- tied for 91st with Duchene
7 goals
- tied for 117th with Trocheck, Suzuki, Marner, O'Reilly
- one better than Horvat

On Ice
54.06 xGF%
- 35th in the league
- slightly better than Nicklas Backstrom and Sebastian Aho
23.26 xGA
- 28th in the league
57.81 HDCF%
- 6th in the league
- Better than Cirelli

So very good possession stats, especially considering his usage, which is about what I expected. But his 5v5 production already seems to be there for a top-6 center. The goal-scoring and shooting isn't great, but when I look at some of the names around him it doesn't seem like such a big deal.

It's hard not to see a player that looks like a top-6 center if he's given powerplay time. I'm not sure that his tool set really justifies giving him that time.... but I'm not sure it doesn't, either. If he can improve his faceoffs enough, does he justify his spot on one of those units? I am increasingly curious to see what the guy does with the opportunities he's likely to get next year.

given proper top 6 usage and at least pp2 time he should get to 50 points and still be shutting people down. i dont know of any trick he has that makes him elite for the pp but i have said before and ill say it again, he could be able to do parises job of net front plus since he is bigger he should be able to battle better than parise can at this point. hand eye may be worse i dont really know as he doesnt get highlighted for it.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Yeah honestly I think Monahan is better than prime Ryan Johanson, he’s a fantastic finisher. He’s not bad defensively, he’s gotten much better in this area but he does not touch the game in many ways if he’s not scoring. IMO that’s the only reason he’s not viewed as an elite player because he doesn’t really drive the play. He has pretty soft hands in that makes really underrated dishes in the offensive zone but he’s not known for playmaking ability.

I kinda only want to deal him for an upgrade at C but I’m not sure that’s possible.

What’s the scouting report on Dumba?

scouting report? better known for his offensive ability and cannon of a one timer on the pp but his defensive play has improved each year. he wont carry his partner defensively but he is not a complete liability either. he is the only defenseman we have that plays physical and is willing to fight. i see him as an offensive dman that can be an energizer bunny and if not traded a future C for us. this past year he was not connecting on the pp as he did in the past with his shot but he will bounce back and i dont see 40 points as too far off for him moving forward with the potential of 20+ goals. i dont know that he will reach 30 goals but he was pacing to hit get close to 30 before tearing his pectoral muscle.

 

[2Pair]

given proper top 6 usage and at least pp2 time he should get to 50 points and still be shutting people down. i dont know of any trick he has that makes him elite for the pp but i have said before and ill say it again, he could be able to do parises job of net front plus since he is bigger he should be able to battle better than parise can at this point. hand eye may be worse i dont really know as he doesnt get highlighted for it.

You're talking about the guy that went to the front of the net with his stick upside down, right?

 

[DeagleJenkins]

You're talking about the guy that went to the front of the net with his stick upside down, right?

i wasnt able to watch the play so i dont know what all happened there for that to happen but seems rather irrelevant to hand eye coordination, funny to joke about though.