News Article: Joe Veleno

[RedWingzz]

You should be prepared to be surprised. His numbers come with a ton of qualifications, including playing on the best offensive team in the CHL, playing a full season more than other D+1s. Being mature physically and mentally. He has every reason going for him why he SHOULD be dominating the CHL. Until he can show it at the pro-level, I think saying his floor is second line center is going way overboard.

It's a 2-way street. Are Kucherov's numbers inflated because he plays on a dominant offensive team? Absolutely. It doesn't change the fact that Kucherov is a huge part of Tampa's offence, just as Veleno is a huge part of Drummondville's. Give the guy some credit here, he has the best points per game in the entire CHL. That's impressive.

I dunno, I just get the sense that you are kind of hoping Veleno fails.

 

[Shaman464]

It's a 2-way street. Are Kucherov's numbers inflated because he plays on a dominant offensive team? Absolutely. It doesn't change the fact that Kucherov is a huge part of Tampa's offence, just as Veleno is a huge part of Drummondville's. Give the guy some credit here, he has the best points per game in the entire CHL. That's impressive.

I dunno, I just get the sense that you are kind of hoping Veleno fails.

Kucherov is also playing against others with a similar skill level. He's not an 'exceptional' player, first round draft pick, 6'1'' 200 pound player, with over 200 games (in a junior league) playing in a league with literal kids in it.

And nope, I am just not trying to think that players that dominate the juniors are going to save the Wings. I have had my heart broken too many times (Sproul, Ouellet, Mantha, etc).

 

[BStinson]

And, as we have seen with Mantha, Sproul, and now Ras, being dominate in the CHL doesn't mean coming into the NHL and doing the same. He needs to get to the AHL and show he can produce against men before I will be on the 'he could be a 2C' train.

I don’t know if I would say Rasmussen had a dominant CHL career. I get your point with Mantha and especially Sproul but my point still stands that Veleno could become a top 6 center given his 2 way, skating, and iq. Could is the keyword every prospect can fail for various reasons.

 

[Fil Larkmanthanasiou]

After the draft last year, some people were saying that he may never be an NHL player, which seemed odd because he has all the tools to at worst, be a useful 3C.

Personally, I think you are selling him a bit short. His numbers are ridiculous. I understand your point, that many players have CHL success that never translates to the NHL, but I don't see this at all with Veleno. In my mind his floor now sits at a 2C. I will be extremely surprised if Veleno is not putting up 50 points per year in the NHL 3-4 years from now. He has the speed, he's responsible defensively, and he clearly has the offensive abilities. I still don't think he's ever a 30+ goal sniper in the NHL, but I am confident he's a 20 goal, 30+ assist NHL center.

I wonder what your predictions for Datsyuk the year he was drafted.

 

[Shaman464]

I wonder what your predictions for Datsyuk the year he was drafted.

There's a difference between a player coming from a team that was almost never scouted, playing a different type of hockey (Soviet style was still being taught in Russia), on European ice, and one that has been watched by scouts for half a decade.

 

[DatsyukianOne]

He has to lead us to at least the playoffs/ 2nd round before giving him the captaincy. I have no problem leaving it vacant for 2-3 more years like Toronto has.

Hmm. Yzerman was made captain after the Redwings 85-86 season, in which they won 17 games. Hmm.

 

[SCD]

But they made the playoffs the two previous years......but than everybody made the playoffs except Toronto.

 

[raymond23]

Can a mod please take control of this shit show lol.

 

[TCNorthstars]

Can a mod please take control of this **** show lol.

No worries. Mr. Veleno will come take care of it. He seems to work well with a chip on his shoulder.

 

[lomekian]

And, as we have seen with Mantha, Sproul, and now Ras, being dominate in the CHL doesn't mean coming into the NHL and doing the same. He needs to get to the AHL and show he can produce against men before I will be on the 'he could be a 2C' train.

The only one of those whose numbers compare to Veleno is Mantha, who had a big size advantage and played a slower game, which was long projected to be uncertain if it translated - and despite an awful start to this year is undoubtedly a 2nd line winger at present, who could exceed that if, like many big guys, he finds his motor later.

That's not to say Veleno will be a star. But the biggest knock on him re transitioning to pros was anemic goalscoring. 38 goals in 47 games is a massive step up from the last two years in terms of G/pg. Its that LEAP forwards that gives me hope he'll be a top 6 center rather than a 3rd liner as I thought in the summer. Also its notable how many of his points are when games are still up for grabs. His defensive play has improved too. Sure his team are dominant, but 2nd best PPG in the Q (by a whisker behind a guy with 16 games) & 2nd best +/-, 3rd best goals, 4th best assists, having played less games than anyone else in the top 33 point scorers IS something to give hope. As similarly gaudy figures did with Mantha (but with less good defence and a less well rounded game).

If he can stay fit and have the right linemates, even the hot and cold Mantha should be worth a few 50-60 point seasons in his career, and if Veleno does that, he'll be a great pick and a 2nd line center on all but the most stacked teams down the middle. And if we draft a better center and he ends up as a 3rd line center, there's nothing to not like!

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Guys/Gals can we please try to stay on the Veleno topic....

 

[BinCookin]

I am always very very cautious when it comes to Prospects.

Anyone "Banking" on Zadina / Veleno / Berggren and McIsaac ALL being NHL players... you are going to be sadly disappointed, as its highly likely 2 of them will never play more than 100 NHL games. Considering their draft position. Zadina will be gifted a 200 game NHL career based on pure hope (like Yakupov) even if he "busts". But the other 3... nope, they will need to earn it.

Yes its highly likely 1 of those 3 will be a hardcore bust. And also highly likely NONE of the 3 will be an impact player.

But, we cant expect much more from Veleno's D+1 year now can we?
Lets see how he does in the AHL next year (I don't expect him to make the Wings).
And Hopefully by the end of this year (Zadina's D+1 year) he will be producing at an acceptable level in the AHL. (some would argue he already is, but if he can improve, great).

None of these kids are locks. I do not ever try to project where they will be in 3-4 years. Because its a good way to set up unrealistic expectations. And corresponding dissappointment.

Lets just be Happy Veleno is doing as much as we could hope for In his D+1. Its great to see.
His next step will be even harder. We will have to wait and see if he can make the next jump.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Kid will look great in GR next season.

 

[SCD]

Thanks to the statisticians of the world, it is possible to look at each draft spot and get percentage of success for what ever level you want to measure success (most often games played).

But when you want to project the likelihood of success for a particular player after his draft year, you need to factor in how that player has performed at subsequent levels compared to draft position comparables. That will in essence update the percentage of success, either up or down.

Veleno, McIssacs, and Regula have all performed at higher levels than we would have expected.
Berggren has been injured, which is certainly a negative for success. How much, we will find out more next year.
Zadina is the tough one, because he is playing at a level that most D+1 players do not play at.

Veleno has proven he can score, which has been the biggest question mark to date. Character and drive seem to be great. Heck, he went to the WJC and road the pine, but it didn't negatively affect his game afterwards and was professional in interviews. There are no red flags with this kid at this point.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Thanks to the statisticians of the world, it is possible to look at each draft spot and get percentage of success for what ever level you want to measure success (most often games played).

But when you want to project the likelihood of success for a particular player after his draft year, you need to factor in how that player has performed at subsequent levels compared to draft position comparables. That will in essence update the percentage of success, either up or down.

Veleno, McIssacs, and Regula have all performed at higher levels than we would have expected.
Berggren has been injured, which is certainly a negative for success. How much, we will find out more next year.
Zadina is the tough one, because he is playing at a level that most D+1 players do not play at.

Veleno has proven he can score, which has been the biggest question mark to date. Character and drive seem to be great. Heck, he went to the WJC and road the pine, but it didn't negatively affect his game afterwards and was professional in interviews. There are no red flags with this kid at this point.

There is a metric that does every league. I don't know it off the top of my head, but AHL is .7 something versus .4 in the CHL in terms of translation to the NHL. Maybe somebody else has the link handy, but we do have a formula for production across leagues.

 

[Hen Kolland]

There is a metric that does every league. I don't know it off the top of my head, but AHL is .7 something versus .4 in the CHL in terms of translation to the NHL. Maybe somebody else has the link handy, but we do have a formula for production across leagues.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Guess the AHL has dropped off since the last time we saw it and everything seems a bit lower. But this is the kind of metric I remember seeing.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Guess the AHL has dropped off since the last time we saw it and everything seems a bit lower. But this is the kind of metric I remember seeing.

It’s the only one that I’ve known of, but it sounded exactly like what you were getting at. It’s an intriguing thing to play with, I just don’t know if it’s proven itself with any of our prospects.

 

[SCD]

The conversion is for productivity comparisons, but really does not take into consideration of what is essentially an under age player in the AHL for how that data is derived.

The other major problem with grading success in the NHL based on games played is far from ideal.

 

[Shaman464]

Guess the AHL has dropped off since the last time we saw it and everything seems a bit lower. But this is the kind of metric I remember seeing.

That conversion works well for players like Wade Megan coming up from the AHL. I don't think its as accurate for players like Zadina, who join the league early in their development.

 

[Hen Kolland]

The conversion is for productivity comparisons, but really does not take into consideration of what is essentially an under age player in the AHL for how that data is derived.

The other major problem with grading success in the NHL based on games played is far from ideal.

Actually the translation factors are built on the premise of what your current production in a minor league would translate to in the present. It doesn’t consider age or experience or anything of the sort. It’s just an average of first year NHL performances by players who make the jump from any given league.

So it doesn’t really need to consider that Zadina is under aged in the AHL, it’s looking exclusively at what he would produce with how his game is right now. Obviously it isn’t predicting what his development curve is or anything of the sort, so there’s. Lot of variables that it doesn’t consider, to me it’s more of a conversation piece more than it is reliable.

 

[Dotter]

It's a 2-way street. Are Kucherov's numbers inflated because he plays on a dominant offensive team? Absolutely. It doesn't change the fact that Kucherov is a huge part of Tampa's offence, just as Veleno is a huge part of Drummondville's. Give the guy some credit here, he has the best points per game in the entire CHL. That's impressive.

I dunno, I just get the sense that you are kind of hoping Veleno fails.

People like him predict failure because statistically more young players fail. He uses this line so he can claim he was always right and beat his drum in 3 to 5 years by shouting from roof tops how right he was and how everyone else was wrong. If Veleno becomes a real NHLer, he'll never mention how he was wrong... he'll be too busy predicting the next group of failures.

People like that are so predictable.

 

[Shaman464]

People like him predict failure because statistically more young players fail. He uses this line so he can claim he was always right and beat his drum in 3 to 5 years by shouting from roof tops how right he was and how everyone else was wrong. If Veleno becomes a real NHLer, he'll never mention how he was wrong... he'll be too busy predicting the next group of failures.

People like that are so predictable.

I've been right before. Jurco comes to mind. I've been wrong about a player becoming something and they bust. Pookie is an example. And Larkin I underestimated. I am honest that I am not prefect. Don't worry, we can't all be pearls of perfect wisdom, like you, right?

 

[Dotter]

I've been right before. Jurco comes to mind. I've been wrong about a player becoming something and they bust. Pookie is an example. And Larkin I underestimated. I am honest that I am not prefect. Don't worry, we can't all be pearls of perfect wisdom, like you, right?

I'm wrong all the time. I was wrong just yesterday and today isn't looking much better.

 

[Shaman464]

I'm wrong all the time. I was wrong just yesterday and today isn't looking much better.

I'm not saying I am perfect either. I just feel Veleno has mitigating circumstances that mean his totals might not be as indicative of NHL success as it would be with other players.