Joe Sakic - Record as Colorado Avalanche GM - Part III (Updates in First Post)

[GoNordiquesGo]

I'm very happy with the production of the guys that were brought in for the second line. However, we have to take into account that the injuries to Rantanen and Landeskog have changed the situation and they are now playing with Nathan, whihc is obviously helping them a lot. Thumbs-up to them for being able to fill these shoes. I am now very curious to see how things will unfold once these two get back into the line-up. Will they be pushed down to Kadri's line and continue to produce, or will Bednar keep that line intact and try Mikko and Gabe with Kadri to see if we could have to amazing lines ?

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I would be more than OK to keep Calvert and Donskoi/Bura with Mack and have Gabe and Mikko play with Kadri. IMO Mac needs players like Calvert or Donskoi (and Landy of course) more than Mikko. Guys that do the dirty work for him, digging pucks out in the corner and dirty areas. Kadri is not good enough to elevate guys like Calvert, Donskoi and Bura the way Mack does so why not improve the 2nd line a lot and still have a very good 1st line? At least until they stop working together.

 

[Bubba Thudd]

I would be more than OK to keep Calvert and Donskoi/Bura with Mack and have Gabe and Mikko play with Kadri. IMO Mac needs players like Calvert or Donskoi (and Landy of course) more than Mikko. Guys that do the dirty work for him, digging pucks out in the corner and dirty areas. Kadri is not good enough to elevate guys like Calvert, Donskoi and Bura the way Mack does so why not improve the 2nd line a lot and still have a very good 1st line? At least until they stop working together.

Worth giving a try, at least.

 

[forsbergavs32]

Looking like Mikko will be with Mack still so my hope is we put Lando with Kadri when the team is healthy

Calvert-Mack-Rants
Lando-Kadri-Dong
Nuke-Jost-Bura
Nieto-Bellemare-JTC

 

[LTC Pain]

Looking like Mikko will be with Mack still so my hope is we put Lando with Kadri when the team is healthy

Calvert-Mack-Rants
Lando-Kadri-Dong
Nuke-Jost-Bura
Nieto-Bellemare-JTC

I think more like this:

Dong-Mack-Rants
Lando-Kadri-Bura
Nuke-Jost-JTC
Nieto-Bellemare-Calvert

 

[Pokecheque]

I think I said this already, but you look at how teams like NJ and TOR have addressed their goaltending situation and then how Joe handled it...so far so good.

 

[5280]

Joe da best

 

[Foppa2118]

I would be more than OK to keep Calvert and Donskoi/Bura with Mack and have Gabe and Mikko play with Kadri. IMO Mac needs players like Calvert or Donskoi (and Landy of course) more than Mikko. Guys that do the dirty work for him, digging pucks out in the corner and dirty areas. Kadri is not good enough to elevate guys like Calvert, Donskoi and Bura the way Mack does so why not improve the 2nd line a lot and still have a very good 1st line? At least until they stop working together.

I think you're right that Nate needs help down low in the trenches, but right or wrong, there's also the idea that you want to keep your best players happy, and Nate most likely wants at least one of Mikko or Landy on his line.

If they want to create some depth they should go with this, since Donskoi worked really well with Nate and Mikko last game.

Donskoi - MacK - Mikko
Landy - Kadri - Burakovsky

 

[Foppa2118]

Sakic's been firing on all cylinders lately, but one thing I think he's come up short on is his off season injury gambles.

He gambled that Cole's hips would help him return to form when he let Nemeth go, but Cole seems to be getting worse. He must have seen Wilson and Bibeau's physical before bringing them in/back and known their injury concerns. Wilson's been out all year and Bibeau just had hip surgery.

With both Grubauer and Bibeau's injuries, I don't see how Sakic can get away with not trading for a legit vet #3 this year.

 

[Pokecheque]

Sakic's been firing on all cylinders lately, but one thing I think he's come up short on is his off season injury gambles.

He gambled that Cole's hips would help him return to form when he let Nemeth go, but Cole seems to be getting worse. He must have seen Wilson and Bibeau's physical before bringing them in/back and known their injury concerns. Wilson's been out all year and Bibeau just had hip surgery.

With both Grubauer and Bibeau's injuries, I don't see how Sakic can get away with not trading for a legit vet #3 this year.

I don't think guys like that are good bets either. Toronto went with Michael Hutchinson, who had a pretty decent track record until recently, and that move blew up in their face. Jersey went for possibly the safest bet available in Louis Domingue, and he's letting in comically bad goals. Who else could he possibly get? Hammond? Picks? I don't really see anyone out there worth pursuing.

Realistically they probably will have to get someone, but it might be more in line for a backup for Werner than a legit #3, because to be quite honest, not sure there's anyone out there who really fits the bill.

 

[McMetal]

At the very least, with Bibeau out long-term, we'll need another goalie on an NHL contract. I don't care if they're terrible, but having only 3 under contract for an extended period of time just isn't a good idea. Especially with the way this season is going injury wise.

 

[Foppa2118]

I don't think guys like that are good bets either. Toronto went with Michael Hutchinson, who had a pretty decent track record until recently, and that move blew up in their face. Jersey went for possibly the safest bet available in Louis Domingue, and he's letting in comically bad goals. Who else could he possibly get? Hammond? Picks? I don't really see anyone out there worth pursuing.

Realistically they probably will have to get someone, but it might be more in line for a backup for Werner than a legit #3, because to be quite honest, not sure there's anyone out there who really fits the bill.

I thought before the season that Pickard could be a good trade target if Detroit was out of the playoffs. Felt like they just brought him in for pre-season competition. Detroit's last in the league now and Grand Rapids is last in their division in the AHL.

Picks only has one more year after this on his deal. If a team comes offering up an asset for him, I don't think it makes a lot of sense for them to pass that up just to keep him.

Hard to tell if he still has it in him to step into a #1 role if needed, but it's at least a safer gamble since he's done it before, and he's comfortable with the city and organization.

 

[ThatAvsGamer]

Sakic has made some good moves and has proven to be patient to get the deal he wants. I trust Sakic if he trades for Hall

 

[buud]

Hello AVS fans! Isles fan here, coming to say that you guys are my favourite team from the West, and I look forward to the two teams meeting sometime in the spring

Loving everything you guys are doing... have half your boys on my hockey pool team, lol.

So yeah, just wanted to say hi and good luck! Gonna get out there one day, to catch a game (I'm in Niagara Falls, Canada), and I might call on you guys to steer me a bit, help me maximize the Rocky Mountain High experience.

Till then, you guys keep rolling along, and if you could crush the Kings a few times, that'd be great. Don't know why, but they seem so arrogant and old, lol. Smush 'em good, please.

Peace and much admiration!

 

[Sea Eagles]

Super Joe by name.
Super Joe by GM.

 

[Foppa2118]

Some controversial signings paying off for Joe Sakic right now. Calvert, Burakovsky, and Nichuksin have all been great for this team.

 

[S E P H]

I decided to move from our AHL/ECHL talk about staff, development, and drafting here to a more appropriate place.

I think we discussed this in the past on here, but I got my THN last draft edition because it has rankings for the drafting and developing for the league. It judged between

- 2000 and 2018 drafts
- How many picks after the second round
- 100+ NHL games on later round prospects
- Percentage Success
- NHL Rank

So here's the ranking, you know a lot can change with scouting departments and whatnot. I decided to make it somewhat reasonable and included their best draft pick from 2014ish onwards, because I don't think it is fair for including Brad Marchand as a legit pick from all the way back in 2006.

1. Pittsburgh Penguins (24.5% success)(Simon, 2015 | Guentzel, 2013 | Sundqvist & Murray, 2012)
2. Ottawa Senators (20.0% success)(Pageau & Dzingel, 2011)
3. Columbus Blue Jackets (18.8% success)(Anderson, 2012 | Bjorkstrand, 2013 | Nutivaara, 2015)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4. Tampa Bay Lightning (16.4% success)(Cirelli & Joseph, 2015)
5. San Jose Sharks (15.5% success)(Lebanc, 2014)
6. New York Rangers (15.5% success)(Buchnevich, 2013)
7. Nashville Predators (15.1% success)(Arvidsson, 2014)
8. Toronto Maple Leafs (14.8% success)(Brown, 2012)
9. Anaheim Ducks (14.3% success)(Terry, 2015)
10. Los Angeles Kings (13.9% success)(Wagner, 2015)
11. Montreal Canadiens (13.7% success)(Mete, 2014)
12. Dallas Stars (13.6% success)(Lindell, 2012)
13. Boston Bruins (13.3% success)(Heinen, 2014)
14. Chicago Blackhawks (13.2% success)(Hinastroza, 2012)
15. Buffalo Sabres (13.2% success)(Olofsson, 2014)
16. Calgary Flames (13.1% success)(Fox, 2016)
17. Colorado Avalanche (13.1% success)(Butcher, 2013)
18. Detroit Red Wings (12.3% success)(Bertuzzi, 2013)
19. New Jersey Devils (12.0% success)(Bratt, 2016)
20. Edmonton Oilers (11.3% success)(Bear, 2015)
21. Florida Panthers (11.1% success)(Malgin, 2015)
22. Minnesota Wild (10.6% success)(Seeler, 2011)
23. Philadelphia Flyers (10.4% success)(Lindblom, 2014)
24. Carolina Hurricanes (10.2% success)(Foegele, 2014)
25. Washington Capitals (10.1% success)(Stephenson, 2012)
26. St. Louis Blues (9.4% success)(Parayko, 2012)
27. New York Islanders (9.0% success)(Toews, 2014)
28. Winnipeg Jets (8.5% success)(Copp, 2013)
29. Vancouver Canucks (7.1% success)(Gaudette, 2015)
30. Arizona Coyotes (6.9% success)(Garland, 2015)
31. Vegas Golden Knights (Expansion)

Now there is obviously some changes that will happen, I think Stars and Penguins will fall along with the Wild and others that haven't produced a player since 2012. The main point of writing this entire list out is that Avs drafting isn't that truly bad, it is right in the middle of the pack of the standard average for the NHL. Of course there are other situations such as booming on your top two rounds, which you can consider more important (something Avs haven't really done very well either). Nevertheless, you can make the argument that the top three is just superior from the rest and it clearly shows. If there is something that needs to be fixed, it is Avs ability to spot talent beyond the top 10 onto the top 90. This is the central core for NHL players to come from and it seems Avs keep targeting sort of "Pracey picks" where they tend to have good two-way ability, NHL character, and sort of grind ability, but now from different leagues. Avs modus operandi and best decisions always seems to come from trades.

I also think there are some other situations going on here, Blues are one example that I consider a good drafting team. However, being good in the NHL for a decade leads to later round picks and trading for rentals might've pushed them all the way to 26th. Penguins on the other hand have no problem trading their top 60 picks because they know they can find some good gems in the later round. It isn't a long-term success, but it can help in stop gap situations. Another situation I saw and this isn't very new for us, but teams tended to have "gold years" like Avs in 2009. A lot teams had similar history where a good amount of their later players came in one draft class (Leafs, Lightning, Senators, and Islanders as such examples).

 

[Pokecheque]

I decided to move from our AHL/ECHL talk about staff, development, and drafting here to a more appropriate place.

I think we discussed this in the past on here, but I got my THN last draft edition because it has rankings for the drafting and developing for the league. It judged between

- 2000 and 2018 drafts
- How many picks after the second round
- 100+ NHL games on later round prospects
- Percentage Success
- NHL Rank

So here's the ranking, you know a lot can change with scouting departments and whatnot. I decided to make it somewhat reasonable and included their best draft pick from 2014ish onwards, because I don't think it is fair for including Brad Marchand as a legit pick from all the way back in 2006.

1. Pittsburgh Penguins (24.5% success)(Simon, 2015 | Guentzel, 2013 | Sundqvist & Murray, 2012)
2. Ottawa Senators (20.0% success)(Pageau & Dzingel, 2011)
3. Columbus Blue Jackets (18.8% success)(Anderson, 2012 | Bjorkstrand, 2013 | Nutivaara, 2015)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4. Tampa Bay Lightning (16.4% success)(Cirelli & Joseph, 2015)
5. San Jose Sharks (15.5% success)(Lebanc, 2014)
6. New York Rangers (15.5% success)(Buchnevich, 2013)
7. Nashville Predators (15.1% success)(Arvidsson, 2014)
8. Toronto Maple Leafs (14.8% success)(Brown, 2012)
9. Anaheim Ducks (14.3% success)(Terry, 2015)
10. Los Angeles Kings (13.9% success)(Wagner, 2015)
11. Montreal Canadiens (13.7% success)(Mete, 2014)
12. Dallas Stars (13.6% success)(Lindell, 2012)
13. Boston Bruins (13.3% success)(Heinen, 2014)
14. Chicago Blackhawks (13.2% success)(Hinastroza, 2012)
15. Buffalo Sabres (13.2% success)(Olofsson, 2014)
16. Calgary Flames (13.1% success)(Fox, 2016)
17. Colorado Avalanche (13.1% success)(Butcher, 2013)
18. Detroit Red Wings (12.3% success)(Bertuzzi, 2013)
19. New Jersey Devils (12.0% success)(Bratt, 2016)
20. Edmonton Oilers (11.3% success)(Bear, 2015)
21. Florida Panthers (11.1% success)(Malgin, 2015)
22. Minnesota Wild (10.6% success)(Seeler, 2011)
23. Philadelphia Flyers (10.4% success)(Lindblom, 2014)
24. Carolina Hurricanes (10.2% success)(Foegele, 2014)
25. Washington Capitals (10.1% success)(Stephenson, 2012)
26. St. Louis Blues (9.4% success)(Parayko, 2012)
27. New York Islanders (9.0% success)(Toews, 2014)
28. Winnipeg Jets (8.5% success)(Copp, 2013)
29. Vancouver Canucks (7.1% success)(Gaudette, 2015)
30. Arizona Coyotes (6.9% success)(Garland, 2015)
31. Vegas Golden Knights (Expansion)

Now there is obviously some changes that will happen, I think Stars and Penguins will fall along with the Wild and others that haven't produced a player since 2012. The main point of writing this entire list out is that Avs drafting isn't that truly bad, it is right in the middle of the pack of the standard average for the NHL. Of course there are other situations such as booming on your top two rounds, which you can consider more important (something Avs haven't really done very well either). Nevertheless, you can make the argument that the top three is just superior from the rest and it clearly shows. If there is something that needs to be fixed, it is Avs ability to spot talent beyond the top 10 onto the top 90. This is the central core for NHL players to come from and it seems Avs keep targeting sort of "Pracey picks" where they tend to have good two-way ability, NHL character, and sort of grind ability, but now from different leagues. Avs modus operandi and best decisions always seems to come from trades.

I also think there are some other situations going on here, Blues are one example that I consider a good drafting team. However, being good in the NHL for a decade leads to later round picks and trading for rentals might've pushed them all the way to 26th. Penguins on the other hand have no problem trading their top 60 picks because they know they can find some good gems in the later round. It isn't a long-term success, but it can help in stop gap situations. Another situation I saw and this isn't very new for us, but teams tended to have "gold years" like Avs in 2009. A lot teams had similar history where a good amount of their later players came in one draft class (Leafs, Lightning, Senators, and Islanders as such examples).

Good list and analysis.

My issue is that the pro scouting department seems very much on-board with analytics. I don't see the same buy-in from Hepple and his staff (admittedly it's probably a little harder to apply analytics to amateur ranks since the data isn't as readily available). Nevertheless I still would like to see more change in terms of their drafting and amateur scouting. The underlying philosophies have obviously been tweaked but there needs to be a wholesale change.

GMs are really difficult to pin down. I'm still reluctant to give praise to Doug Armstrong, but even I gotta admit virtually every gamble he made in a very ambitious 2018 offseason has paid off (again, he got a future Conn Smythe and Selke winner dropped in his lap, but still). He also righted a previous (and pretty egregious) mistake and fired Mike Yeo just before it was too late.

Conversely, some previously stellar guys, like David Poile and Steve Yzerman both have their teams (or in Yzerman's case, former team) stuck in what looks like a steady decline. Doug Wilson gambled big on an aging core and it's currently blowing up in his face. Chayka went for it this year, but I'm not so sure it was a smart bet.

There's also different aspects to being a GM that some guys are better at than others. Kyle Dubas appears to have put together a very good minor league system and talent evaluation team. His maneuvering under the cap and ability to convince players to forego their big paydays appears to remain elusive. Sakic appears to be pretty astute when it comes to addressing team needs via trade and free agency, but drafting and talent evaluation remain an issue.

The good news is that while the guys at the top may rotate in and out, there remain some pretty dependable guys at the very bottom (Murray, Benning).

 

[S E P H]

Hepple and his staff (admittedly it's probably a little harder to apply analytics to amateur ranks since the data isn't as readily available). Nevertheless I still would like to see more change in terms of their drafting and amateur scouting. The underlying philosophies have obviously been tweaked but there needs to be a wholesale change.

So if I remember correctly, Timmins was based on analytics. Not that I think he needed them because when you saw him play, there was serious talent and hockey intelligence. Nonetheless, there was an article describing that they used a lot of analytical numbers for that selection.

stellar guys, like David Poile

What has been Polie's downfall is his trades - I haven't chequed his history, but based upon my recollection he keeps losing them even though his draft history is still very strong. He's also put faith in the wrong players; Subban over Weber, Duchene, Turris, and Johansen. Subban is tough luck since his below-average play is due to nerve damage in his back. However, Duchene, Turris, and Johansen were all available for a reason and that reason is because they don't have a high desire to be a difference maker and that makes them quite inconsistent. It's not that I doubt their work ethic, but they're missing that extra gear that superstars like Kane, McDavid, MacKinnon, Kucherov, Malkin, Crosby, and others have. Duchene falls in the same category for me, even though he joined them in a different way via the free agency path.

 

[Pokecheque]

So if I remember correctly, Timmins was based on analytics. Not that I think he needed them because when you saw him play, there was serious talent and hockey intelligence. Nonetheless, there was an article describing that they used a lot of analytical numbers for that selection.

What has been Polie's downfall is his trades - I haven't chequed his history, but based upon my recollection he keeps losing them even though his draft history is still very strong. He's also put faith in the wrong players; Subban over Weber, Duchene, Turris, and Johansen. Subban is tough luck since his below-average play is due to nerve damage in his back. However, Duchene, Turris, and Johansen were all available for a reason and that reason is because they don't have a high desire to be a difference maker and that makes them quite inconsistent. It's not that I doubt their work ethic, but they're missing that extra gear that superstars like Kane, McDavid, MacKinnon, Kucherov, Malkin, Crosby, and others have. Duchene falls in the same category for me, even though he joined them in a different way via the free agency path.

Well that's good to read, and by all accounts Timmins was a good pick (albeit having some shit luck in the health department). But I'm still rather bothered by the fact that they were caught unprepared in this year's draft in round 3, which led to yet another low-ceiling pick in Stienburg. There's no way THAT was an analytics find. Sure as hell hope Helleson is a solid player, that's precisely where the Avs need to draft better.

I think I agree that Poile just may have invested in the wrong players. He never really found that franchise center, and has clearly held onto Pekka Rinne way too long. And though it was understandable at the time, I can't help but wonder if he had simply dealt Suter and Radulov when he ran into issues signing them to new contracts, instead letting both players walk for literally nothing. To a much smaller degree I believe he's gotten burned twice by NCAA draft picks who opted for free agency--I would think a GM would do his due diligence and if that player wasn't willing to sign before his senior year, it was probably a good indication they had no intention to sign. Carolina had that issue with Fox and made the right move. Poile didn't and just griped about it afterward.

 

[Hasbro]

The 2019 playoffs were Altitude’s #2 Avs moment of the decade so I guess that leaves the Duchene rade for #1.

 

[NOTENOUGHJTCGOALS]

I think choosing to let Nemeth walk and keeping Z will prove to be the undoing of this team.

 

[AnimalMother73]

Maybe not the right choice but neither had/have enough impact alone to do that.

 

[Linds]

I think choosing to let Nemeth walk and keeping Z will prove to be the undoing of this team.

Nemo was not worth 4m a season with term he is 5th d man that can play in the top 4 for limited amounts of time, Z is still really young for a D man and I'm sure 90% of the fanbase would be more comfortable giving Z 4m+ with term than nemo

 

[NOTENOUGHJTCGOALS]

Nemo was not worth 4m a season with term he is 5th d man that can play in the top 4 for limited amounts of time, Z is still really young for a D man and I'm sure 90% of the fanbase would be more comfortable giving Z 4m+ with term than nemo

Nemeth is a steady #5 who can play PK. Zadorov is terrible on the PK and a marginal #4 to #6.

90 percent of people would be wrong.