News Article: Jimmy Howard extension coming (Maybe/Maybe not)

Lil Sebastian Cossa

Opinions are share are my own personal opinions.
Jul 6, 2012
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Is there a precedent for someone re-signing at a discount?

Quincey didn’t. Green didn’t. Helm didn’t. Vanek is making more than the first time he was here.

I can’t think of one, really.

How many of them were 35 year old players with the Wings having the option of moving on without them.

Quincey - They tried everything under the sun to get a top 4D. Quincey had the Wings over about 3 or 4 different barrels. Irrelevant. In fact, the Wings were set to move on from him and only came back after going 0-fer on all other options
Green - Look at our ****ing defense. Green had them over a barrel. And since you had counted Vanek as making more... Green took a discount. Not a huge one, mind you, but as much a pay decrease as Vanek got an increase.
Helm - Universally looked at as a bad deal. Indefensible from Holland. Also though, he was a 30 year old W who is center-capable who does little things to help the team win. 5 years younger than Howie.
Vanek did get a little pay bump. But 2.6M was basically what Detroit had available in 2016. Prob would have gotten 3 then as well.

In each of those cases, the player brought something the Wings felt they couldn't replace (Helm, Green), they actually couldn't replace (Quincey). In this case, it is very realistic that the Wings could go Bernier-Sateri as a pairing if Howard pushes too hard. If the Wings didn't have Bernier in the fold or if there wasn't a litany of goalies who play at the 1.5-2.5M range out in FA all the time, I would agree with you, Frk It. But that's not the case.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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How many of them were 35 year old players with the Wings having the option of moving on without them.

Quincey - They tried everything under the sun to get a top 4D. Quincey had the Wings over about 3 or 4 different barrels. Irrelevant. In fact, the Wings were set to move on from him and only came back after going 0-fer on all other options
Green - Look at our ****ing defense. Green had them over a barrel. And since you had counted Vanek as making more... Green took a discount. Not a huge one, mind you, but as much a pay decrease as Vanek got an increase.
Helm - Universally looked at as a bad deal. Indefensible from Holland. Also though, he was a 30 year old W who is center-capable who does little things to help the team win. 5 years younger than Howie.
Vanek did get a little pay bump. But 2.6M was basically what Detroit had available in 2016. Prob would have gotten 3 then as well.

In each of those cases, the player brought something the Wings felt they couldn't replace (Helm, Green), they actually couldn't replace (Quincey). In this case, it is very realistic that the Wings could go Bernier-Sateri as a pairing if Howard pushes too hard. If the Wings didn't have Bernier in the fold or if there wasn't a litany of goalies who play at the 1.5-2.5M range out in FA all the time, I would agree with you, Frk It. But that's not the case.

You don’t think they see a drop off from Howard to Bernier or Sateri? I hope they are looking at it like you are, but I’m not sure.
 

Heaton

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Feb 13, 2004
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If it's too much sure, but IMO the previously mentioned Rinne signing likely means Howards cap hit ends up a good bit lower than what it is currently.

I disagree that it will *definitely* have impact on signing players unless it ends up real long term. Over a hypothetical two year extension, the team potentially has Kronwall, Nyquist, Vanek, Daley and Ericsson coming off the books and the only extensions they'll have to dole out that will be of size will be to AA, Mantha and Bertuzzi. On top of that guys like Cholowski, Rasmussen and Hronek won't need extensions till after that hypothetical 2 year extension to Howard is done, as well as Berniers contract. Franzens deal also comes off the books, giving them more flexibility with signings while they can go over the cap in the summer. And obviously the cap is going to increase as well.

They'll have plenty to extend guys that need to be re-signed and have more left over to be tempted by the Vaneks and Daleys of the world.

IMO, the Bernier signing will have more of an impact, especially if they already had it made up that the chances of them not extending Howard were slim when they made that signing.

I think this line of thinking goes against the quotes from Jimmy D about being aggressive and competitive in trades and UFA.
 

The Zermanator

In Yzerman We Trust
Jan 21, 2013
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Bobrovsky is different than Varlamov as far as I am concerned. Bob is a top 5 goalie on most nights, a real difference maker. I get not wanting to pay a goalie a lot though. Bob can will a team to playoff contention like most top 5 goalies. That is the difference to me.

I don't really believe in paying a goalie that much though, even if they're top 5. I think it hurts more than it helps honestly. Works during the regular seasons because over the course of 82 games their hot streaks outweigh their cold streaks. But the playoffs are unforgiving, you can't balance out cold streaks with hot streaks. You have to be hot for between 16-28 games. Hit just one cold streak (even just an average streak if the team is depending on the goalie, i.e. Rangers with Lundqvist) and you're out. Looking back at the last 15 years of Stanley Cup Champs they rarely had what could have been considered a top 5 goalie at the time. The only ones I can really think of are Quick, Thomas, and Holtby. Lundqvist, Bobrovsky, Luongo, Rinne, Miller, Kiprusoff, etc. never won a Cup.

I think if you're paying a goalie anywhere near $10M you're losing quality on offense and defense. Better to be able to afford a $10M forward and dman with a $5M goalie vs a $7.5M forward and dman with a $10M goalie. The former will have a much bigger impact, IMO.

It's much easier to quantify a goalie's value since they ultimately only have one job to do, keep the puck out of the net. It's pure math. All you really need for a shot at the Cup is a goalie who can get you between .918-.925 save%, after that it's up to the team to pick up the ball and run. Heck even Howard can get you those numbers. If you're depending on a top 5 goalie to stand on his head and make up for the team's shortcoming all it takes is a bad stretch to tank the team's chances. It's just not really a feasible strategy to get you through 4 rounds of playoff hockey.

Here's the playoff SV% for the last 10 Stanley Cup Champs:

2018 Capitals: Holtby .918
2017 Penguins: Murray .937 / Fleury .924
2016 Penguins: Murray .923
2015 Blackhawks: Crawford .924
2014 Kings: Quick .911
2013 Blackhawks: Crawford .932
2012 Kings: Quick .946
2011 Bruins: Thomas .940
2010 Blackhawks: Niemi .910
2009 Penguins: Fleury .908

This gives an average SV% of .924. And a very good argument could be made that the examples above .930 SV% were just as much a reflection of the teams as the goalies they were playing in front of, especially the Kings' Cups. And using the above examples, there were nearly as many goalies who won Cups with a SV% below .911 (3) as there were with a SV% above .930 (4). The position is just too volatile and unpredictable to invest a huge chunk of the cap towards, better to use that money on skaters.

So to synthesize this into a TLDR concerning Howard: I'm fine sticking with Bernier and Howard, provided Howard is willing to sign at max 3 years (preferably 2) with a cap hit under 4M (Preferably ~3.5). Worry about building a team first.
 
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izlez

We need more toe-drags/60
Feb 28, 2012
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I think a big problem is going to be the $$ Howard will get, which will definitely impact the Wings ability to sign players.

Holland signing players to more $$ than they're worth at the end of their career? Absolutely.

So you're worried about Holland spending money on Howard, because he needs to save money to sign players....players along the lines of Daley and Nielsen and Vanek...that you can complain about being too old and too overpaid?
 
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ArGarBarGar

What do we want!? Unfair!
Sep 8, 2008
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Holland signing players to more $$ than they're worth at the end of their career? Absolutely.
Who above the age of 35 received more money than they were worth or as much as they received for the previous contract?

The only precedent I can get behind is the whole "Holland is too loyal" deal. Even then I don't see Howard making the same amount of money for his next contract.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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Who above the age of 35 received more money than they were worth or as much as they received for the previous contract?

The only precedent I can get behind is the whole "Holland is too loyal" deal. Even then I don't see Howard making the same amount of money for his next contract.

The guy who used to wear #11
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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So you're worried about Holland spending money on Howard, because he needs to save money to sign players....players along the lines of Daley and Nielsen and Vanek...that you can complain about being too old and too overpaid?

Funny... Heaton never said that.
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

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Jul 6, 2012
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You don’t think they see a drop off from Howard to Bernier or Sateri? I hope they are looking at it like you are, but I’m not sure.

There is too much of what they've done that invalidates a lot of the worry. They moved on from Mrazek because 9M was too much to have in a goalie tandem. They're not going to jump right back to having 8M. While Bernier/Sateri would be a dip, it's a damn sight better than Howard/Coreau or Mrazek/Coreau.

Everyone says follow what they do, not what they say. What they're doing is indicating that Howard will be here on a short term extension for less money than he's making now or he'll be gone. If they were going to extend Howard for 4-5M, they wouldn't have signed Bernier for 3. If they were going to go several years for Howard on a new extension, they wouldn't have signed Bernier to 3 years.

Bernier is the "If Howard wants more than we want to give him" option.
 

Ezekial

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Vanek got a marginal raise this season because last year he had his best season since 13-14.

I have no doubts Jimmy Howard would have to take a pay cut to stay.
 

The Zermanator

In Yzerman We Trust
Jan 21, 2013
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Who above the age of 35 received more money than they were worth or as much as they received for the previous contract?

The only precedent I can get behind is the whole "Holland is too loyal" deal. Even then I don't see Howard making the same amount of money for his next contract.

Well the problem isn't so much handing out these deals after a player is 35, rather it's signing early-mid 30s players for so long that it amounts to the same thing.

Abdelkader, Helm, and Nielsen are all getting paid way too much past 35.

EDIT: Nevermind, just realized Abby and Helm's contracts will end by the time they're 35.
 

ShelbyZ

Registered User
Apr 8, 2015
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Who above the age of 35 received more money than they were worth or as much as they received for the previous contract?

The only precedent I can get behind is the whole "Holland is too loyal" deal. Even then I don't see Howard making the same amount of money for his next contract.

I think there needs to be more context on this whole "he'll get a raise" argument. Are we talking from his actual salary this season ($4.25M) or his cap hit (slightly less than $5.3M)?

Given the market, he could get close to his actual salary but the same or a raise from his cap hit is absurd..... even for Ken Holland.

Last seasons Vezina winner, who's had an insane start to this season, just signed an extension that averages out to a 28% drop in salary over two years from what he is currently making.

Howard is probably somwhere right in the juicy center between Rinne's extension and Halak/Ward from this past summers UFA market. Probably the $3.75-4.25M range.

I would also imagine that given Howard's next deal will be a 35+ contract, 2 years is probably the max he's going to get from anybody.
 

Invictus12

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Aug 1, 2010
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No, it starts with the management.

It starts with 'mixed signals' assertion if you looking for deeper meaning than it actually is. There are no signals, just management looking to address the goalie situation. As far as management goes, yeah, how dare Holland allow Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Lidstrom get old? The nerve of the guy for allowing Franzen have a concussion.... These are ultimately the reasons why we're bad. Comes at the cost of being good and vice versa. Every team goes through but on EA sports you can literally transition a team in a matter of minutes so...
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

Opinions are share are my own personal opinions.
Jul 6, 2012
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It starts with 'mixed signals' assertion if you looking for deeper meaning than it actually is. There are no signals, just management looking to address the goalie situation. As far as management goes, yeah, how dare Holland allow Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Lidstrom get old? The nerve of the guy for allowing Franzen have a concussion.... These are ultimately the reasons why we're bad. Comes at the cost of being good and vice versa. Every team goes through but on EA sports you can literally transition a team in a matter of minutes so...


I mean, yes and no. The Wings got precisely nothing of value from the draft from like 2005-2012. They ceratinly got no value out of the first. Of the picks from 05-12, they have Athanasiou and Nyquist still with the team? Frk maybe? Like the Wings had all kinds of chances and whiffed. So while the material reason for the decline in play is the aging of our stars, we did nothing at all to buoy the team back up from the draft.
 
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ArGarBarGar

What do we want!? Unfair!
Sep 8, 2008
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The guy who used to wear #11
He was paid less on a one-year deal. He was then paid another one year deal for 63% of that one.

And this was in 2014-2015 for a skater being paid less than 2 million dollars by this point and extended his shelf-life by virtue of the fact he was a playoff warrior.

Howard is a goaltender with a cap hit nearly 3x as much. I don't see him getting that same kind of money again at his age and his injury history, just because of Holland.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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He was paid less on a one-year deal. He was then paid another one year deal for 63% of that one.

And this was in 2014-2015 for a skater being paid less than 2 million dollars by this point and extended his shelf-life by virtue of the fact he was a playoff warrior.

Howard is a goaltender with a cap hit nearly 3x as much. I don't see him getting that same kind of money again at his age and his injury history, just because of Holland.

He made 2.5 mil with bonuses after that 1 year deal (caphit was also 2.5). So about the same as the 2.8 he was making prior.
 
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ArGarBarGar

What do we want!? Unfair!
Sep 8, 2008
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He made 2.5 mil with bonuses after that 1 year deal (caphit was also 2.5). So about the same as the 2.8 he was making prior.

He also had no knees left to speak of at that point and clearly didn’t deserve it.
Right, and again, that was in 2014, still making less, as a former playoff warrior who was considered instrumental in the team winning a cup.

If that is your precedent then I am not terribly convinced.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
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Right, and again, that was in 2014, still making less, as a former playoff warrior who was considered instrumental in the team winning a cup.

If that is your precedent then I am not terribly convinced.

You asked for an example, so I gave one.

I hope the conventions wisdom prevails here, FWIW.
 

GMR

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Who was the last Detroit goalie that had as long a tenure as Howard? Osgood doesn't count because he left for several years.
 

Reddwit

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I guess that depends on what someone finds "entertaining" or who the team is trying to entertain? I'd argue that Howards play thus far has provided entertainment since he's kept them in and stolen games they had no business even coming close to winning.

The average fan isn't going to be "entertained" for long if the team rolls the dice on an unproven Bernier and another experiment in net and gets regularly blown out and even more unwatchable.

Howard has been a member of this team for 14 years. We go through this almost every year: Howard plays great for a stretch of hockey or two and everyone gets excited that this might be the year that he finally carries the team. Then he inevitably shits the bed, gets injured, or both, all the while being one of the most bland career Red Wing starters.

This is like a hockey fan's version of Stockholm syndrome.

They are. Unfortunately it's with the still unproven veteran signed for 2 more years that you're referring to.

Unproven? He's a 30 year-old guy who has a ton of experience playing behind crappy teams in flux. The only bright light is that his best year came playing behind the 8th worst team in the NHL. He's got 300 games under his belt and his career save percentage is .914 compared to Jimmy's .915 despite Jimmy spending the first 3 years of his career playing behind a competent defense and team overall and his best season coming having played not even a 1/3 of the season.

We know who Bernier is as much as we know who Jimmy is and its not great despite the revisionist history. Could either of them could give us the benefit of a surprise career year? Sure. But as I said in my post, why the hell would we reward that in November? There is zero precedent for that happening over the course of even 30+ games for Howard behind an average-or-worse team.
 

Invictus12

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Aug 1, 2010
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I mean, yes and no. The Wings got precisely nothing of value from the draft from like 2005-2012. They ceratinly got no value out of the first. Of the picks from 05-12, they have Athanasiou and Nyquist still with the team? Frk maybe? Like the Wings had all kinds of chances and whiffed. So while the material reason for the decline in play is the aging of our stars, we did nothing at all to buoy the team back up from the draft.

That lack of value also translated into actual success on the ice. It would have been absolutely better to have hit the homerun on one of the latter picks but its hardly something to hold management accountable for when the priority was simply to win and rightfully so at the time.
 

ShelbyZ

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Apr 8, 2015
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Who was the last Detroit goalie that had as long a tenure as Howard? Osgood doesn't count because he left for several years.

Surprisingly, no one. Howard has played NHL minutes in 13 consecutive seasons for the Wings, 10 as a regular on the NHL roster.

As far as being a "regular" on the NHL roster you have Osgoods 1st tenure and Greg Stefan at 8. For seasons with NHL minutes, Stefan is at 9.

Greg Stefan made NHL appearances for the team in 9 consecutive seasons, and was a regular for 8. Osgood had an 8 season tenure in his first run with the Wings, Sawchuks 2nd tenure was 7 seasons, Jim Rutherford has a roughly 7 season tenure between ta mid-season trade to Detroit and then a mid-season trade out of Detroit,
 

Invictus12

Registered User
Aug 1, 2010
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Howard has been a member of this team for 14 years. We go through this almost every year: Howard plays great for a stretch of hockey or two and everyone gets excited that this might be the year that he finally carries the team. Then he inevitably ****s the bed, gets injured, or both, all the while being one of the most bland career Red Wing starters.

This is like a hockey fan's version of Stockholm syndrome.



Unproven? He's a 30 year-old guy who has a ton of experience playing behind crappy teams in flux. The only bright light is that his best year came playing behind the 8th worst team in the NHL. He's got 300 games under his belt and his career save percentage is .914 compared to Jimmy's .915 despite Jimmy spending the first 3 years of his career playing behind a competent defense and team overall and his best season coming having played not even a 1/3 of the season.

We know who Bernier is as much as we know who Jimmy is and its not great despite the revisionist history. Could either of them could give us the benefit of a surprise career year? Sure. But as I said in my post, why the hell would we reward that in November? There is zero precedent for that happening over the course of even 30+ games for Howard behind an average-or-worse team.

It would make sense to have negotiation in November if Holland wants to get a clearer picture of where this standscome trade deadline. I mean, if the two parties aren't on the same page now, the easy solution would be to shop Howard. If they're on the same page, then sign him.Generally, I agree, don't sign him just yet.
 

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