News Article: Jimmy D. : "Red Wings won't 'sit back' in attempt to rebuild"

Shaman464

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I will also point out that this is a live by the sword die by the sword move. You over pay Matthews to come to Detroit and in a couple years Detroit has to start fending off offer sheets on their best players.
 
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newfy

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Matthews will be resigned before offer sheets can go out, Better offer sheet Marner he's a more realistic target here.

I wouldnt be so sure. Matthews agent just started talking to Torontos management and actual contract details werent discussed apparently. Marners agent has flat out refused to talk contract before the off season. I highly doubt Matthews signs a decent deal in Toronto without seeing any potential offers from other teams in the offseason unless its a ridiculous amount offered by Toronto.

I will also point out that this is a live by the sword die by the sword move. You over pay Matthews to come to Detroit and in a couple years Detroit has to start fending off offer sheets on their best players.

I dunno about that. Has Philadelphia had any offer sheets come their way after the massive one they signed Weber to? Or the Flames for signing O'Reilly? Sharks offersheeted Hjalmarsson and I havent seen anything really happen to them either. Seems like none of these teams have had to fend off offer sheets.

I dont think Detroit will likely offersheet anyone but it wouldnt be the worst strategy depending who it is. Imagine the wings sign a Marner/Matthews from Toronto or someone like Aho from Carolina. So you add their top pick from this year, plus a player like one of those 3. All of a sudden with Larkin on a reasonable contract, the roster has a lot of talent. Sign a Karlsson and youre a legit threat in the East.

Obviously thats a lot of what ifs but its something to consider. The thing with adding one of these high value RFAs is that theyre all young. Its worht overpaying a bit if it actually happens. The wings trading the picks would suck but theyve had plenty of picks the last couple drafts and by adding legit talent, they wont be picking very high anymore.

Like I said, wont happen but not a bad strategy to consider
 

Winger98

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Also, going by McKenzie's quote it seems teams are considering this more seriously anyway. If teams across the league decide that offersheeting RFA is going to be a thing, it won't matter if the Wings do it to someone or not - another team will target them if they see an opportunity, regardless.
 

jkutswings

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Step 1: GMs break the unwritten code, and offer sheet players much more frequently.
Step 2: It turns into an open war of finances, with salary cap gymnastics getting insane.
Step 3: The next CBA includes language to help save GMs from themselves.
(And Step 4 is GMs finding the next thing to shoot themselves in the foot with.)
 

Winger98

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Step 1: GMs break the unwritten code, and offer sheet players much more frequently.
Step 2: It turns into an open war of finances, with salary cap gymnastics getting insane.
Step 3: The next CBA includes language to help save GMs from themselves.
(And Step 4 is GMs finding the next thing to shoot themselves in the foot with.)

Yeah, steps 3 and 4 are going to happen and it irritates me. The NHL tries to idiot proof the GM job far too much.
 

A II R

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Also, going by McKenzie's quote it seems teams are considering this more seriously anyway. If teams across the league decide that offersheeting RFA is going to be a thing, it won't matter if the Wings do it to someone or not - another team will target them if they see an opportunity, regardless.

Also, teams simply don’t have enough cap space to retaliate with offer sheets. They aren’t going to blow up their own long term plans just to get revenge on another franchise. It makes no sense at all.
 
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BinCookin

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I think draft lottery has changed these strategy things.

Being dead last doesn't quarantee the 1st overall anymore. It didn't do it in the past either, but the proabilities were much higher.

Probability for the 1st overall is 18.5% at best currently. It takes 5,5 dead last finishes to mathematically get cumulative 100% total chance for 1st overall. And even that isn't a quarantee, because it still is a lottery. You can still end up being without a lottery win, and even if you win, it could be a bad draft year with Yakopov-level first talent.

So what is the solution?

Offer-sheet for former 1st picks or best talents, where you pay high-salary and lose 4 first-rounders. Mathematically it would be a working strategy. 4 first-rounders is less than any 4 lottery probabilities together. If your oranization is otherways on a good position, that good times would be ahead, and you don't need those 1st picks for anything, because you have drafted so well on the past, why not?

Getting Matthews with an offer-sheet is a 100% quarantee of a getting Top Elite talent. And if it could be the final piece in the puzzle. If you are an organization who can dig those depth players also from lower rounds, this could be the way to go.

You are forgetting 1 thing with this "math" for a super elite player.

You still get 4 1st round picks that translates to 4 players.
NHL isnt about 1 superstar. Does anyone think Our team + McDavid - our next 5 first rounders will actually be a stanley cup contender in the next 5 years?

Because I do not. Edmonton is learning this lesson right now. 1 Man does not a team make.

I would NOT do an offer sheet for a player like those listed.

If i did an offer sheet it would be for a 3rd line player we really wanted from a team like Toronto, once they break their cap to pay Marner and Matthews.
 
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jkutswings

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If i did an offer sheet it would be for a 3rd line player we really wanted from a team like Toronto, once they break their cap to pay Marner and Matthews.
And this should be explored as well, whether it's for a depth center from Toronto or a 3/4 defenseman from Nashville or whomever from wherever. I'm not optimistic that an offer sheet will result in a shrewd deal, but it's simply good business to turn over every rock you can when planning. There's probably analytics to help make a slightly more educated guess for what secondary players are more likely to take that next step, like the data posted on Kevin Hayes.
 

Flowah

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NHL isnt about 1 superstar. Does anyone think Our team + McDavid - our next 5 first rounders will actually be a stanley cup contender in the next 5 years?
Do you think another team with a stacked D-group might trade a 1D and a couple of first rounders for McDavid?
Because I do not. Edmonton is learning this lesson right now. 1 Man does not a team make.
We really need to stop relying on Edmonton for this kind of hypothetical. They are a mess beyond anything else in the hockey world. They were a mess before Chia and then Chia made some of the worst hockey signings and trades ever. We memed about it here even asking who Holland was going to fleece now that Chia is out of a job.

If the Wings had McDavid we'd be doing MUCH better than Edmonton is with him now.
 

BinCookin

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Do you think another team with a stacked D-group might trade a 1D and a couple of first rounders for McDavid?

a couple of first rounders is not what im talking about. I suppose i should say specifically 4? is it 4 first rounders for an offer sheet at near max money? 2nd I think paying 1 player 12-13M plus is a good way to make sure your team will never win anything. Chicago if i recall has not won while Kane and Toews are being paid 10+. IMO this is because they had to tear everything down around them.

McDavid may actually be an exception where big money is concerned.

We really need to stop relying on Edmonton for this kind of hypothetical. They are a mess beyond anything else in the hockey world. They were a mess before Chia and then Chia made some of the worst hockey signings and trades ever. We memed about it here even asking who Holland was going to fleece now that Chia is out of a job.

If the Wings had McDavid we'd be doing MUCH better than Edmonton is with him now.

That is fair enough. Edmonton is a unique disaster.

Other examples of failed-ish rebuilds are Columbus // Florida // Arizona. So i guess it would be a better move to start mentioning those teams as examples over Edmonton, you know just to stop comparing regular success and failure vs a tire fire. :P
 
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jkutswings

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Do you think another team with a stacked D-group might trade a 1D and a couple of first rounders for McDavid?

We really need to stop relying on Edmonton for this kind of hypothetical. They are a mess beyond anything else in the hockey world. They were a mess before Chia and then Chia made some of the worst hockey signings and trades ever. We memed about it here even asking who Holland was going to fleece now that Chia is out of a job.

If the Wings had McDavid we'd be doing MUCH better than Edmonton is with him now.
Correct.

If <Team X> has the #1 overall pick ten years running, but selects a goalie every time, it does not prove that a goaltender should never be taken 1st overall, nor does it prove that the #1 pick is a poor asset to have.

It just proves that the decision makers of <Team X> are some mix of inept and unfortunate.

Detroit is on the right track. Let's hope that continues until they have a very dangerous roster.
 
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Flowah

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Other examples of failed-ish rebuilds are Columbus // Florida // Arizona. So i guess it would be a better move to start mentioning those teams as examples over Edmonton, you know just to stop comparing regular success and failure vs a tire fire.
All 3 of those teams are significantly below the cap ceiling and have internal caps. Yeah. It's hard to compete when you're a small market team in a non-traditional hockey market where your best players literally tell you to your face, in public, "I'm leaving."

Those are just not comparable to Detroit. On the other hand, teams that tanked, were from traditional hockey markets, and spent to the cap are teams like Chicago and Pittsburgh who have multiple recent cups to show for it.

a couple of first rounders is not what im talking about. I suppose i should say specifically 4? is it 4 first rounders for an offer sheet at near max money? 2nd I think paying 1 player 12-13M plus is a good way to make sure your team will never win anything.
My point was you could get McDavid with an offer sheet and then flip him. You're giving up 4 1sts but getting back 2 and a defenseman, which is our most pressing need.

I'd easily give up 2 1sts for a true 1D.
 

ZDH

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Moving multiple firsts would be an absolute disaster considering we are going to be cellar dwellers for quite a while even with a #1 C.

And then what - we have an overpaid #1 C without any way of surrounding him with talent.

It would be the worst move Holland has ever made if he does this.
 

ZDH

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Offer sheets make much more sense when you are a #1 C or D away from being a competitor. Also in this scenario your 1st is in the 20's not #1 overall. Hopefully he watches the riots in Ottawa after they gift Hughes to Colorado and decides maybe losing the realistic chance at the next hockey prodigy (Lafreniere) isn't worth a piece that ultimately wont make a difference at the end of the day anyways. If you want to rebuild correctly you sit back and rebuild correctly. His "not sitting back" stance is making me nervous as hell.
 

DInTheB

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Offer sheets make much more sense when you are a #1 C or D away from being a competitor. Also in this scenario your 1st is in the 20's not #1 overall. Hopefully he watches the riots in Ottawa after they gift Hughes to Colorado and decides maybe losing the realistic chance at the next hockey prodigy (Lafreniere) isn't worth a piece that ultimately wont make a difference at the end of the day anyways. If you want to rebuild correctly you sit back and rebuild correctly. His "not sitting back" stance is making me nervous as hell.

It depends. If you offer sheet Point, chances are you will contend for a playoff spot. So say that you sign Point at the cost of four first round picks, roughly in the early to mid 20’s.

Would you trade Svech, Cholowski, Mantha and Veleno today for Point? I personally would.

That is a worthwhile gamble for a great, young player imo. I would never fault anyone who feels otherwise though.
 

SirloinUB

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It depends. If you offer sheet Point, chances are you will contend for a playoff spot. So say that you sign Point at the cost of four first round picks, roughly in the early to mid 20’s.

Would you trade Svech, Cholowski, Mantha and Veleno today for Point? I personally would.

That is a worthwhile gamble for a great, young player imo. I would never fault anyone who feels otherwise though.

On the flip side, would you trade Seguin and Dougie Hamilton for Phil Kessel?
 
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ZDH

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It's simply too risky, if Point gets hurt or doesn't do enough to get us out of the basement (which is exactly what I think would happen) then we could be in for a half decade of hell every time the draft rolls around.

Would you trade Laine, Pettersson, Lafreniere, and a #3 overall for Point?

It's too risky I think keeping the 1sts is by far the better option.

But I also overrate 1st rounders (which is better than underrating them like Ottawa did)

I would be so livid if I was a Sens fan right now I really hope ol Kenny doesn't do something similar....
 

DInTheB

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I totally get peoples concerns.

I also think that over the next four years, it’s verh unlikely anyone we draft in the first round will be we good as Point.

All other variables aside, I can understand why someone would take that risk.
 

SirloinUB

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I totally get peoples concerns.

I also think that over the next four years, it’s verh unlikely anyone we draft in the first round will be we good as Point.

All other variables aside, I can understand why someone would take that risk.

IMO its a question of timing and unless several stars align (Hughes + Karlsson + unload at least 1 of Nielsen/Abdelkader) this summer is not the right timing.
 
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DInTheB

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IMO its a question of timing and unless several stars align this summer (Hughes + Karlsson + unload at least 1 of Nielsen/Abdelkader) it's not the right timing.

That’s fair. I don’t necessarily disagree. I just think that going for a stud who hasn’t entered his prime is worth it. I understand those that feel differently.
 
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lilidk

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There is this guy Darren Dietz playing in KHL, only 25 dominating KHL as a defenseman
 

Ghost of Ethan Hunt

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It depends. If you offer sheet Point, chances are you will contend for a playoff spot. So say that you sign Point at the cost of four first round picks, roughly in the early to mid 20’s.

Would you trade Svech, Cholowski, Mantha and Veleno today for Point? I personally would.

That is a worthwhile gamble for a great, young player imo. I would never fault anyone who feels otherwise though.

How can you rationalize this? Let's say Point is a 100pt. player/yr. through the prime of his career (currently on 108.7pt pace/82gp):

Cons: small/lightweight/short
not exactly physically imposing
cost $10M? + etc. etc. etc.

1..he wouldn't produce anywhere near that on DET, this year or probably the next 4-5 yrs, if ever. TB is loaded, & their farm is also loaded, both leading their respective leagues in G/GP by a good margin.
2...say goodbye to 4 1st rounders
3...say goodbye to some secondary scoring
4...give up a possible Top pairing Dman, a possible 2C, possible 1RW/LW, & a probable 3rd liner with top 6 upside.

Pros: coming off ELC contract so he can be bridged.
point producer, etc. etc. etc.

Mantha: likely 55-60+ in peak seasons
Cholo: 40+
Veleno: 40-60?
Svech: 30-40? if he ever makes it to NHL again.
 

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