Jim Coleman Conference Semi Finals - Chicago Cougars (2) vs Orillia Terriers (3)

[Dreakmur]

Why Orillia Wins

The First Line

• Once again, the line of Dean Prentice - Jonathan Toews - Gordie Howe is a force at even strength. Though, this Chicago line is easily the best I've run into so far.
• Offensively, Orillia has a combined ES vs.X of 277.1. Chicago has 255.9. The LWs and Cs are essentially equal, so the difference is the gap between Mike Bossy and Howe, which is substantial.
• Defensively, Orillia has the edge as well. Again, the LWs and Cs are about equal, so the gap between Howe and Bossy is the difference, which is also substantial.
• Physically, Orillia has the edge. Once again, the LWs and Cs are about equal. The physicality gap between Howe and Bossy is about as big as any gap can get.

Scoring Depth

• Beyond the top units, Orillia has a scoring advantage on each of the other lines.
• Seconds line is an advantage of 248.9 to 233.8.
• Third line as an advantage of 214.6 to 192.6
• Fourth line is an advantage of 181.5 to 154.4
• Considering both teams use their 1st lines in the primary match-up role, these other lines have to pick up some of the scoring slack. If they are not going to checking, I don't see a whole lot of value in Chicago's bottom 6.

Defensive Depth

• Once Chicago's excellent 1st pair is off the ice, their blueline is vulnerable. That will allow our scoring depth to do some damage.
• Orillia has the better second pairing - Kevin Lowe and Brent Burns are both better than their counterparts in Rod Seiling and John Carlson
• Orillia has the better third pairing - Jack Portland is quite bit better than Watson and Yandle is a little weaker than Aucoin.

Goaltending

• Johnny Bower is quite a bit better than Tom Barrasso. Not a whole lot to get into here, but it's a significant advantage for Orillia.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Why Chicago Will Win The Series

- Chicago has a big physical defenseman who will at least limit Gordie Howe's effect on the series in Lionel Conacher.

- Chicago has the better overall blueline, with advantages at both #1 and #2 Dman.

- The Orillia defense is one of the weak points of that team, and Chicago's heavy forecheck will wear down the Orillia defenseman over the course of the series.

- The other weak point of Orillia is the bottom 6 forwards, specifically how weak they are on the defensive side of the puck. Chicago will look to get one of their top 2 lines out against either Orillia's 3rd or 4th line when possible, in which case Orillia will be in trouble. Inevitably this will result in Chicago's bottom 6 going up against Orillia's top 2 lines at times, but Chicago's bottom 6 is much better both defensively and physically, and while they won't get the better end of the play when out against either of Orillia's top 2 lines, they will do much better than Orillia's bottom 6 will do against Chicago's top 2 lines. Chicago also has home ice advantage, so should be able to get these matchups.

Orillia Bottom 6
Jack Marshall - Jason Spezza - Vladimir Tarasenko
Camille Henry - David Krejci - Bobby Schmautz

Chicago Bottom 6
Patrick Sharp - Red Sullivan - John MacLean
Brenden Morrow - Brian Skrudland - Ryan Callahan

 

[Dreakmur]

Why Chicago Will Win The Series

- Chicago has a big physical defenseman who will at least limit Gordie Howe's effect on the series in Lionel Conacher.

Should be a good battle!

- Chicago has the better overall blueline, with advantages at both #1 and #2 Dman.

Depends how you want to look at it. You have a better blueline for 23-25 minutes of the game. I have the better blueline for the remaining 35-37 minutes

The Orillia defense is one of the weak points of that team, and Chicago's heavy forecheck will wear down the Orillia defenseman over the course of the series.

Where is this heavy forecheck coming from?

Syd Howe is a good forechecker, but not great. Kopitar is good, not great. Bossy is terrible.

Tanguay is bad. Getzlaf is too slow to be much more than average. Aurie is probably your best top-6 forechecker.

- The other weak point of Orillia is the bottom 6 forwards, specifically how weak they are on the defensive side of the puck. Chicago will look to get one of their top 2 lines out against either Orillia's 3rd or 4th line when possible, in which case Orillia will be in trouble. Inevitably this will result in Chicago's bottom 6 going up against Orillia's top 2 lines at times, but Chicago's bottom 6 is much better both defensively and physically, and while they won't get the better end of the play when out against either of Orillia's top 2 lines, they will do much better than Orillia's bottom 6 will do against Chicago's top 2 lines. Chicago also has home ice advantage, so should be able to get these matchups.

So you're not going power on power anymore?

If your plan is to expose my bottom 6, it's going be a bit tougher than you think. For starters, there's quite a bit of offensive skill, so they'll score too. Probably most importantly, they'll be used mostly for offensive zone starts. That puts them at an advantage right away. Also, Spezza and Krejci are better face-off men than Kopitar and Getzlaf, so we'll start with the puck more often, which again puts them at an advantage right away. That Getzlaf line is pretty weak defensively, so I think I'd be quite satisfied getting that matchup on a regular basis.

My top-6 are the guys who are relied upon for the tough matchup. Our plan is to go 1v1, 2v2, 3v3, and 4v4.

If there's a face-off in my end, it's either the Toews or Keon line going out. Are you really going to start one of your no-skill bottom 6 lines in the offensive zone just to avoid that matchup?

Orillia Bottom 6
Jack Marshall - Jason Spezza - Vladimir Tarasenko
Camille Henry - David Krejci - Bobby Schmautz

Chicago Bottom 6
Patrick Sharp - Red Sullivan - John MacLean
Brenden Morrow - Brian Skrudland - Ryan Callahan

When you show it like that, Orillia's looks like a much, much better group of players.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Good series @Dreakmur, not surprised this one was super close. Obviously I wish I would have won, but it's pretty cool to see a #3 seed make it this far (and with fairly strong voter turnout). Good luck going forward!

 

[ImporterExporter]

This was a great series especially. Sucks to see one go out but really good effort by both GMs.