Jim Coleman Conference Semi Finals (1) New Jersey Swamp Devils vs (1) Kenora Thistles

Dreakmur

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The better the player, the more his contribution matters in the outcome.

I guess I agree with you to some extent, but ultimately Malkin scored so many playoffs points inside SC runs, other players did not.I have no problem finding merit to both perspectives, even if I struggle to reconcile them in one unified framework.If I have to choose a final view, I'd take the one I mentioned above in a comparison.

Malkin scored 4 points in the finals last year. He had a very good play-offs overall, but without being surrounded by other great players, his 4 points come in a losing effort, right?

Iginla had one great signature run, but I cannot in good conscience just take their PPG pace, compare the difference between their RS and POFF stats, and call it a wash (assuming the numbers would be equal).So if I cannot do that, I'm stuck with my way.

Iginla's play-off scoring actually stays exactly the same in the play-offs. I have him as the same in the play-offs as he is in the regular season.
 

BenchBrawl

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Malkin scored 4 points in the finals last year. He had a very good play-offs overall, but without being surrounded by other great players, his 4 points come in a losing effort, right?



Iginla's play-off scoring actually stays exactly the same in the play-offs. I have him as the same in the play-offs as he is in the regular season.

You want to nitpick and zoom in, I prefer to look at it by zooming out and counting signature runs, then after that I can zoom in and count the rest (outside such runs).

I guess I just completely disagree with the approach (judging a player's worth by his RS->POFF stability or increase/decrease in PPG) in your second sentence (or at least the relative importance you give to it).I see it as just one among many angles to see this.For playoffs, I care a lot about what has actually been done.Not what the player could have done if given the opportunity.I already admitted it was unfair given the differences in opportunities, people can decide for themselves how they see it.

Playoffs are the highlights of hockey history.What happens there is written in "the book"; this is the story.Two players with the same output from your angle, but where one won 4 cups and 3-4 signature runs versus the other with 0 cup and 1 signature run, well the former is a more important character in that book.In your view, they should be ranked equal.I disagree with that.I guess that's the root of the disagreement.
 
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Dreakmur

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Dave Andreychuk - Edgar Laprade - Floyd Curry
  • Andreychuk is probably pretty useless at even strength, but on the PP he's a pretty good net presence.
  • Curry is a decent defensive winger and penalty killer, though he doesn't bring any offensive ability.
  • Laprade is a strong defensive center and good penalty killer, and brings a little bit of playmaking skill
  • I'm not sure exactly how this line will work at even strength. It looks like Dumart is taking a lot of Andreychuk's ice time, at which time it looks like an ok defensive line
  • This is basically just a "I needed specialty team players" line thrown together. They add some important guys to the PK, but at even strength, it looks pretty weak.
Boris Mayorov - Joe Nieuwendyk - Eddie Oatman
  • Nieuwendyk was selected because we needed a 2nd PP net presence, but he's also a really good player at even strength.
  • Mayorov is a good all-around player. He brings good levels of scoring, checking, and grit to the 4th line, and really good playmaking.
  • Oatman is pretty much the same. He's a well-rounded player who can do a little bit of everything.
  • Each player was a leader and captain.
  • While this line doesn't bring elite levels of any one thing, every one of the players is pretty well-rounded, so we feel this is a safe line to take minutes if needed.
With all of the Kenora players landing on top special team units, they have bigger roles than either Mayorov or Oatman. In those roles, they're going against other New Jersey players, so we'll ignore than part in this comparison. At even strength, we feel New Jersey has a significant edge here. Not only are the players much more well-rounded than the Kenora counterparts, the line works a lot better as an actual line. Mayorov-Nieuwendyk-Oatman can actually function very well on it's own.
 

Hawkey Town 18

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I apologize for my lack of participation. I had time set aside this weekend for this and got bombarded with 2 work emergencies. I will try to post some comments later today.
 

jarek

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I'll still look at further arguments as I won't be voting until tomorrow.
 

Dreakmur

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Goaltending: Georges Vezina vs. Turk Broda
- Vezina is a better goalie over-all, but Broda is a play-off beast.
- with the play-off boost, this is probably a wash.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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I hate to pile on HT when he doesn't have much time for this, but I have to say my piece:

First off, anyone giving Malkin a boost for playoff heroics should also note that his winger Woody Dumart has one of the greatest drops in playoff production of all-time, going from 449 points in 772 regular season games (0.56 ppg) to a mere 27 points in 88 playoff games (0.31 ppg). I realize Dumart provided a lot other than just offense, but his playoff production is pretty ugly for a scoring line player in the ATD. Of course, playing with Malkin helps.

________________

As for why I think NJ should win the series (other than the fact that it's my team): The moderate but clear advantage on the blue line.

Here's how I see it:

Coaching is close to equal. Cecil Hart always gets drafted earlier than Green or Hitchcock due to supply and demand - the supply of coaches who can coach offense-first ATD teams is low, and the demand is high because it's easier to build an offense-first ATD team than a defense-first one. (Most of my previous teams were offense-first too). On merit, I don't see what Cecil Hart has on his undrafted contemporary Jack Adams, other than the fact that you need a certain type of team to play for Adams. (We almost drafted Adams over Green btw, but decided last minute that his style wasn't a really good fit for our team).

Forwards are fairly close IMO - Those other guys have a slightly better top 6 mainly due to even greater two-way ability than NJ's top 6. I think that NJ has a clear edge on the 3rd line , even if you prefer Larionov to Goyette. 4th line too if you think it matters. If Kenora has any advantage overall up front, it isn't all that much.

If this were the regular season, I'd say NJ has a big advantage in goal. I don't have time to go through the arguments that were posted in detail in the goalies thread, but suffice to say that Vezina is generally considered the best goalie of his generation, with Broda a distant 3rd best of his generation in the regular season but with a playoff resume that would make some argue for Broda over Durnan for #2. Since so much of Broda's value is in the playoffs, I'd say that NJ's advantage in goal is quite small here.

That leaves the blueline, which IMO wins the series for NJ. NJ's top two pairings are just better. Not by a huge amount (Kelly cancels out some of NJ's large advantage at #2 defenseman and moderate advantage at #3), but it is definitely there. By the way, I see Kelly and Fetisov as having primes that were equal both in terms of length and quality, but Kelly with a much more effective career after his prime was over (albeit at center).
 
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Dreakmur

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Forwards are fairly close IMO - Those other guys have a slightly better top 6 mainly due to even greater two-way ability than NJ's top 6. I think that NJ has a clear edge on the 3rd line , even if you prefer Larionov to Goyette. 4th line too if you think it matters. If Kenora has any advantage overall up front, it isn't all that much.

Yeah, I think Kenora's 1st line is a little better than ours... but.... you have to consider who they will play against.

Who will be more effective, Blake-Yzerman-Geoffrion going head to head against Pulford-Goyette-Provost for a large chunk of the game, or Moore-Sakic-Drillon going head to head with whatever combination of lines Kenora plans to use against them?
 

BenchBrawl

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Yeah, I think Kenora's 1st line is a little better than ours... but.... you have to consider who they will play against.

Who will be more effective, Blake-Yzerman-Geoffrion going head to head against Pulford-Goyette-Provost for a large chunk of the game, or Moore-Sakic-Drillon going head to head with whatever combination of lines Kenora plans to use against them?

Or quite a bit better... it boils down to Blake vs. Drillon, a complete domination.Both lines are pretty much structured identically, so neither has chemistry advantage.
 

Dreakmur

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Or quite a bit better... it boils down to Blake vs. Drillon, a complete domination.Both lines are pretty much structured identically, so neither has chemistry advantage.

Is it domination? Drillon is better offensively, and despite one bad year, is a really strong playoff scorer. Blake is a hard worker and gritty, but he’s certainly not great defensively or physically.
 

BenchBrawl

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Is it domination? Drillon is better offensively, and despite one bad year, is a really strong playoff scorer. Blake is a hard worker and gritty, but he’s certainly not great defensively or physically.

Youll have to do better than that if you want to persuade anyone that Blake vs. Drillon isnt a slam dunk in favor of Blake, as canon would indicate.
 

Dreakmur

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Youll have to do better than that if you want to persuade anyone that Blake vs. Drillon isnt a slam dunk in favor of Blake, as canon would indicate.

I agree that Blake is better, but cannon is meaningless, especially if you are referring to draft position. Toe Blake, like most supposed glue guys, get drafted a lot earlier than their true value. The problem with Blake is that he's not really that great of a glue guy. He was never an elite defensive player. He was never an elite grinder. He was good at both, but never elite.

Drillon, in the other hand, is a one-dimensional scorer. His draft value is lower than his all-time ranking. Until recently, there was a common misconception that he was a slow skater, and therefore hard to build a line around.

You'll have to tell me what you disagree with before I can do better. Do you disagree that Drillon is better offensively? Do you disagree that Blake is good, but not great in the glue guy traits?
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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I think Blake was better at driving the play than Drillon, who was basically just Syl Apps' finisher in real life. That's the biggest difference other than defense.

But here, Drillon has Sakic and Fetisov to drive the play and Moore to keep possession and set up plays in the offensive zone.

I also think that by most of the metrics we normally use, Sakic would be considered a slam dunk over Yzerman (and said so in the HOH centers project). But we think of them as close because most of us saw them play together.

Minor advantage to NJ in line construction because i think Moore is a bigger tough guy than Blake. (Both Yzerman and Geoffrion regularly played with tough guys on their lines in real life). It would be a bigger issue if NJ's defense was tougher (they are fairly tough, but that isn't their biggest strength).

All that said, Kenora's 1st line comes out ahead because I think their defensive edge is greater than the toughness edge NJ has from Moore over Blake.
 

Dreakmur

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I think Blake was better at driving the play than Drillon, who was basically just Syl Apps' finisher in real life. That's the biggest difference other than defense.

Yeah, I thought Blake played a lot more with Lach and Richard than it looks like he did. He did push the offense more, however, as the primary offensive driver he wasn't particularly successful in the play-offs.

Still, my biggest issue is that Blake gets treated as if he's this physical monster and Selke candidate.
 

ImporterExporter

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Blake IS significantly better than Drillon IMO. You're talking about a Hart winner as wing, which was rare for that time period. A 5 time postseason AS and I'm not really sure why there was a gap of 4 seasons between 1940 and 1944 where he wasn't one.

He's not really elite in any one area. But Blake is a guy that reads like he was generally good and sometimes great at most everything. TDMM's bio from 2014 spells that out pretty clearly IMO.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/atd-2014-the-bios-thread.1587243/page-2#post-79720331
 

Dreakmur

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Blake IS significantly better than Drillon IMO. You're talking about a Hart winner as wing, which was rare for that time period. A 5 time postseason AS and I'm not really sure why there was a gap of 4 seasons between 1940 and 1944 where he wasn't one.

He's not really elite in any one area. But Blake is a guy that reads like he was generally good and sometimes great at most everything. TDMM's bio from 2014 spells that out pretty clearly IMO.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/atd-2014-the-bios-thread.1587243/page-2#post-79720331

In that bio, all the best quotes about Blake’s defensive play were describing him as an AHLer or lesser league, right?
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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Blake did win the Hart in 1939, but it was the only time he was even remotely close. Drillon's best finish was a 4th.

Anyway, if I were ranking them on an all-time list, I'd have Sakic in the late 20s or early 30s, Yzerman in the 40s, Geoffrion in the 50s, Moore in the 60s or 70s, Blake in the 90s or 100s, Drillon in the 150s or 160s or so.

Funny that just about everyone who watched them play seems to rank Moore over Geoffrion (from memory, Red Fischer, the 1998 THN Top 100, and hfboards poster Canadiens1958, among others), but I just can't bring myself to do it.
 

ImporterExporter

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In that bio, all the best quotes about Blake’s defensive play were describing him as an AHLer or lesser league, right?

Well to be fair, if we're going by amount of content, I have more on Nels Stewart playing good to great defense in his Maroon days then 90% of guys who are called "great" in the ATD. I'm sure if somebody had access to all/most of the game reports from Blake's career we'd have a better idea of his defensive accumen. But, given the multiple descriptions of him as an all around player, who went balls to the wall, I'd wager he was a pretty good defensive player, especially considering he was used on the penalty kill quite a bit.
 

Dreakmur

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Well to be fair, if we're going by amount of content, I have more on Nels Stewart playing good to great defense in his Maroon days then 90% of guys who are called "great" in the ATD. I'm sure if somebody had access to all/most of the game reports from Blake's career we'd have a better idea of his defensive accumen. But, given the multiple descriptions of him as an all around player, who went balls to the wall, I'd wager he was a pretty good defensive player, especially considering he was used on the penalty kill quite a bit.

Well, I guess 2 is technically “multiple” descriptions. As I said when TDMM first introduced those quotes a few years back, they mean a lot less when describing a guy who plays in the Quebec Senior Hockey League.

Even if he was an elite penalty killer in that league, where did he rank world-wide? I find it hard to believe a guy who was super elite defensively would be relegated to that level of hockey.
 

Dreakmur

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Anyway, we’re getting bogged down in debating how big or small Kenora’s singular advantage is. I think we all agree that Blake is better than Drillon, and by extension, their top line is better than New Jersey’s.

Just like last round though, this is about an entire roster. Kenora has a better top line. New Jersey has a better 3rd line, and a better 4th line. New Jersey also has a better 1st, 2nd and 3rd defense pairings. I think those combined advantages more than make up for the different from our sole disadvantage.
 

VanIslander

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NJSD I had pegged pre-playoffs as a top-4 team in these playoffs because there are so many big game players who are key to close playoff series. But then I look at the Thistles and realize that Yzerman, Malkin, Boom Boom and Broda in beast mode would be unstoppable.
 

Hawkey Town 18

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Just logging on now, and I really am sorry that I did not have time to debate this matchup more, my work/personal life just did not allow it.

I am also somewhat surprised to see Kenora coming out on top. Not saying this wasn't a close matchup, I think it was very close, but NJ contributed a lot more to the discussion and it seems like in the past that has been a tie-breaker in very close series.

Thanks to those GM's who voted for Kenora, and hats off to TDMM and Dreakmur for building a great team this year. And a big thanks to them and the other ATDers who posted, for carrying the discussion on this one. My schedule should be a bit better this coming week, so I hope to have some good discussion in the Conference Finals.
 

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