Jim Coleman Conference Semi Finals (1) New Jersey Swamp Devils vs (1) Kenora Thistles

[Dreakmur]

Not sure if this is what you were getting at, but I'm fine admitting Blake is not as good a penalty killer as Gottselig. I think Blake is fine on an ATD 2nd PK unit. See the below which coincidentally is from TDMM's bio...

"Blake is a coach who lives to get out on the ice and show his players just what he means. He took the odd turn with the team, sometimes at defence...Now old Toe has to get out there and do his stuff, aching dogs and all, but still a canny player and a wizard at killing off penalties."

That's the only quote about Blake's penalty killing ability, and it's a report about him playing senior hockey in Quebec. I'm not sure how much it's worth.

The only other quote about his defensive play as a whole is from his year in the AHL too, right?

 

[Dreakmur]

Well, let's look at the 3rd lines...

Clark Gillies - Igor Larionov - Tony Amonte

• Well, Gillies has taken a beating over the years, but I actually think this is a decent enough spot for him. I would ideally like him on my 4th line, but he's actually a decent even strength scorer. He's super-tough, and he didn't take a lot of bad penalties.
• Amonte is a really nice player to add offense to a 3rd line, since he too is a good even strength scorer. He also plays a gritty game, and isn't bad defensively.
• Larionov is a tough one for me. As an NHLer, he was a solid and reliable player. As a Red Army soldier, he was very clearly the 3rd fiddle offensively. I'm not really sure how much offensive credit to give him.
• Overall, this is a decent 2-way line, but I'm not sure I would be confident in their shut-down abilities.

Bob Pulford - Phil Goyette - Claude Provost

• Pulford, to me, is among the elite 3rd line centers. He's not a great scorer, but he's good enough to put some points up. He's also a top-end checker who can deal will all kinds of opposing weapons.
• I've learned a lot about Provost this year, and I'm glad TDMM took him. He's easily the best checking winger of all time, and may actually be in the conversation for the top few checking forwards. His ES scoring is just a tad shy of his Kenora counterpart.
• Goyette isn't a typical checking center, since he lacks true shut down ability. He was a really solid defensive player and checker in the early part of his career.

Bob Pulford > Clark Gillies is obvious, right?

Claude Provost > Tony Amonte is also obvious.

The centers are interesting. They had almost opposite careers. Goyette had to be a checker until he got the opportunity to play as a scorer later in his career. Larionov played on a scoring line, then played the responsible veteran when he was past his prime. Both guys are cerebral players who didn't play physical games.

I can see this go either way, depending on how people value Larionov' s Soviet career. Personally, I have Goyette ahead of Larionov both offensively and defensively.

To me, the edge for New Jersey here is the single biggest advantage either team has in this series.

 

[ImporterExporter]

This series is razor thin. Hoping HT and company get some more time to post rebuttals.

I do think NJ has one of the best 3rd lines in the draft in terms of checking ability and they're sneaky good at ES scoring wise. I'd actually be tempted to move Dumart down to the 3rd line because that would bridge the "defensive" gap somewhat. Plus Malkin and Alfredsson provide plenty of offense for a 2nd line here.

 

[Dreakmur]

This series is razor thin. Hoping HT and company get some more time to post rebuttals.

I do think NJ has one of the best 3rd lines in the draft in terms of checking ability and they're sneaky good at ES scoring wise. I'd actually be tempted to move Dumart down to the 3rd line because that would bridge the "defensive" gap somewhat. Plus Malkin and Alfredsson provide plenty of offense for a 2nd line here.

Swapping Gillies up to the 2nd line just give New Jersey a difinitive edge there, doesn’t it? I mean, it would help his 3rd line, but even then, a large gape remains.

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

I wouldnt call Gillies a good ES scorer. His score is ~58 (not standardized to HO’s score of 70) which is approximately equal to guys like Tikkanen, Pavelich etc.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Swapping Gillies up to the 2nd line just give New Jersey a difinitive edge there, doesn’t it? I mean, it would help his 3rd line, but even then, a large gape remains.

Not really IMO. Malkin is superior to Maltsev as a scorer IMO. Iginla is marginally ahead of Alfredsson. Obviously Gottselig would have a pretty big leg up on Gillies but it's not like it cripples Kenora IMO, because Gillies played a similar role for NY. He was a distant 3rd wheel offensively who did the heavy lifting and dirty work. Having him there frees Malkin up from having to do much in the way of standing up for the line in a physical manner.

I was thinking in terms of trying to close the checking line gap. And honestly the second line would be much grittier with Gillies on it. Him playing on a scoring line didn't hurt the Islander dynasty much. But that's completely up to HT and paperhoes.

 

[Dreakmur]

Not really IMO. Malkin is superior to Maltsev as a scorer IMO. Iginla is marginally ahead of Alfredsson. Obviously Gottselig would have a pretty big leg up on Gillies but it's not like it cripples Kenora IMO, because Gillies played a similar role for NY. He was a distant 3rd wheel offensively who did the heavy lifting and dirty work. Having him there frees Malkin up from having to do much in the way of standing up for the line in a physical manner.

I was thinking in terms of trying to close the checking line gap. And honestly the second line would be much grittier with Gillies on it. Him playing on a scoring line didn't hurt the Islander dynasty much. But that's completely up to HT and paperhoes.

Agreed that Malkin is better than Maltsev. If my math is right, Malkin moves up to a 7 season vs.x score of 93.4 after this season. That's better than Maltsev's assigned value of 90. Both guys were significantly better on a per game basis, so that argument can probably be put aside.

At even strength, Iginla is quite a bit better offensively than Alfredsson. According to HO's ES VS.X chart, Iginla has a score of 65. Alfredsson has a score of 55 in that same chart.

Alfredsson scored 59% of his points at ES. If you apply that to his (normal) vs.x score of 82.3, it comes out to a score of 48.6.

Iginla scored 65% of his points at ES. If you apply that to his vs.x score of 86.7, it comes out to 56.4.

That’s a pretty significant edge for Iginla and that's before you look beyond the flat numbers to see how much Iginla was his teams only real offensive weapon for most of his career. Alfresson put up great numbers with great line mates. That’s good too, but less impressive. Iginla led his team in scoring 11 seasons in a row, with never less than a 6 points gap over the next guy. Alfredsson led his team in scoring 4 times, with 3 of those being either a tie or a 1 point lead.

Gillies doesn’t add that much grit over Dumart, who was a big strong guy himself. Neither one was an offensive catalyst.

 

[Dreakmur]

I wouldnt call Gillies a good ES scorer. His score is ~58 (not standardized to HO’s score of 70) which is approximately equal to guys like Tikkanen, Pavelich etc.

Well, I meant that he scored a very high percentage of his points at even strength.

 

[Dreakmur]

Viacheslav Fetisov vs. Red Kelly

• I have Red Kelly as the 6th best defenseman of all time, ahead of Denis Potvin.
• I have Viacheslav Fetisov as the 8th best defenseman of all time, behind Denis Potvin.
• This is a small edge for Kenora.

Drew Doughty vs. Butch Bouchard

• Maybe I'm crazy, but I've got Drew Doughty creeping into the top-30 defensemen of all time.
• I have a hard time with Bouchard, since he pretty much peaked during the war. He's probably around 50.
• This is a large advantage for New Jersey

Sylvio Mantha vs. Jimmy Thomson

• I've got Sylvio Mantha at about 50. The #1 defenseman
• I'm probably higher on Jimmy Thomson than most, so I think he probably could have snuck into the discussion for the top-60
• This is an advantage for New Jersey

Hap Day vs. Vladimir Lutchenko

• Hap Day's a really strong defensive defenseman who also brings a little bit of offensive skill.
• Lutchenko's pretty much the same
• I'd call this one a wash

The gap between Doughty and Bouchard is much larger than the gap between Kelly ad Fetisov, so I think that should give New Jersey an edge on the top pair.

Also, with Mantha being better than Thomson and Day equalling Lutchenko, that should give New Jersey an edge on the 2nd pair as well.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Help me out: who's a better player, Malkin or Iginla?

Glancing at the lineups again, I can't help but think Kenora easily has the best Top 6.I take my earlier comment back.

I agree that Doughty is approaching Top 30 D ever.The Doughty > Bouchard gap is getting very large and it is THE big advantage for NJ in this series.But I also feel like the Malkin > Maltsev gap is also getting rather large by now.

Really tight series.

 

[Dreakmur]

Kris Letang vs. P.K. Subban

• P.K. Subban is certainly more of an impact player, but he's also more prone to making bad decisions.
• 7 season vs.x scores... Letang 83.9 ... Subbam 84.3
• On a per game basis, Letang scores a lot more, but he definitely benefits from playing with a higher scoring team.
• Even strength scoring ... Letang 57% ... Subban 55%
• Norris voting ... Letang 3rd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 9th ... Subban 1st, 3rd, +likely a top-10 this year
• Letang has a much more fleshed out play-off resume, but Subban has been good.
• I think this is actually close enough to call a wash. Subban can do more positive, Letang will do less negative.

Rod Seiling vs. Jimmy Watson

• Both skilled and smart guys who played steady and safe defensive games.
• Norris voting ... Seiling 7th, *7th, 10th ... Watson N/A
• 1974 Coaches' poll, Seiling was the 4th best defensive defenseman in the NHL
• Jimmy Watson was the #1 defensemen during the Flyers championships
• Both these guys played at the same time, and it's pretty clear that Seiling was viewed as better.

 

[Dreakmur]

Help me out: who's a better player, Malkin or Iginla?

That's a tough one. In a vacuum, maybe Malkin. When building a team, probably Iginla.

It would probably depend on how much you value Iginla's scoring dominance over his line mates. Their even strength scoring is essentially equal. Malkin's power play scoring is better. Is that because he has Crosby, Letang, etc to work with? It sure doesn't hurt.

 

[BenchBrawl]

That's a tough one. In a vacuum, maybe Malkin. When building a team, probably Iginla.

It would probably depend on how much you value Iginla's scoring dominance over his line mates. Their even strength scoring is essentially equal. Malkin's power play scoring is better. Is that because he has Crosby, Letang, etc to work with? It sure doesn't hurt.

I'm really not convinced of this actually.I can't help associating a team build around Malkin with 2012 Malkin.That's a bias that I have which is probably none-sense.

Malkin beign a center also helps his case.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I see Doughty as swimming in the same water as Serge Savard and Eddie Gerard, but still behind both for being an inferior playoff player and overall leadership presence, which is saying a lot about the formers considering Doughty is a tremendous playoff performer.That qualifies him as being around 30th give or take.But a lot of others are also in contention.

Doughty vs Keith is a great debate right now.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Sorry for triple post:

I don't recall an ATD series where two active players, and their boost from the ongoing season, was so relevent to the eventual outcome.

 

[Dreakmur]

I see Doughty as swimming in the same water as Serge Savard and Eddie Gerard, but still behind both for being an inferior playoff player and overall leadership presence, which is saying a lot about the formers considering Doughty is a tremendous playoff performer.That qualifies him as being around 30th give or take. But a lot of others are also in contention.

Agreed. That 25-35 range is a total crapshoot. Doughty is in it for sure - it's just a question of where. I'm not nearly as high on Savard or Gerard as you are though.

Doughty is not a leader, but he is a big game player.

Doughty vs Keith is a great debate right now.

Yeah, that's a close one. I have Doughty, but I can see Keith. Both are ahead of Neidermayer though, right?

 

[Dreakmur]

I'm really not convinced of this actually.I can't help associating a team build around Malkin with 2012 Malkin.That's a bias that I have which is probably none-sense.

I'm talking about building an ATD team.

Malkin is a really good scorer, but that the only thing he brings. Iginla brings a little less scoring, but he brings a lot more other things.

Malkin beign a center also helps his case.

That would hurt his case, since there are so many other centers.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I'm talking about building an ATD team.

Malkin is a really good scorer, but that the only thing he brings. Iginla brings a little less scoring, but he brings a lot more other things.

That would hurt his case, since there are so many other centers.

He also brings a crapton of playoffs heroics with him by this point.He is a dynasty-level producer in the playoffs.His offense is also very balanced, can score goals and strong playmaker.Also he is tall, so his softness is not an issue per say, which is at least not a negative.

I don't know, tough one.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Agreed. That 25-35 range is a total crapshoot. Doughty is in it for sure - it's just a question of where. I'm not nearly as high on Savard or Gerard as you are though.

Doughty is not a leader, but he is a big game player.

Yeah, that's a close one. I have Doughty, but I can see Keith. Both are ahead of Neidermayer though, right?

I am very high on both Savard and Gerard true.I think they were extremely important and impactful players, and the kind which is harder to quantify.

Not big on Niedermayer in general (doesn't help that I'm very high on both Stevens and Pronger), don't think I ever was, so that wouldn't be saying a lot.I think both Doughty and Keith are better than him yes.

 

[Dreakmur]

He also brings a crapton of playoffs heroics with him by this point.He is a dynasty-level producer in the playoffs.His offense is also very balanced, can score goals and strong playmaker.Also he is tall, so his softness is not an issue per say, which is at least not a negative.

I don't know, tough one.

Well, maybe I just evaluate play-off scoring a little differently than you. I have Malkin in the play-off equalling his regular season play rather than exceeding it. His scoring actually goes down slightly in the play-offs. 1.19 points per game in the regular season and 1.05 in the play-offs. Crosby does the same - going from 1.29 to 1.14. That's normal, since play-off hockey does become closer-checking. Iginla, for what it's worth maintained his exact scoring pace in the play-offs.

Since putting up high totals in the play-offs is largely an extension of how far your team goes, I look at totals AND per game averages. Is it more impressive to score 10 goals in a 7 game first round loss or to score 15 goals in a Stanley Cup win? I would say the 10 goal guy was better than the 15 goal guy.

When I look at these play-off series, I look at what the player did in the regular season and the play-offs. I compare the two and decide if the player raised or lowered his game in the play-offs. I also try to decide how much they raised or lowered their game. Once I decide that, I take what they were in the regular season ad adjust it.

 

[Dreakmur]

I am very high on both Savard and Gerard true.I think they were extremely important and impactful players, and the kind which is harder to quantify.

Doughty is extremely important ad impactful too. Gerard may have been as important to Ottawa as Doughty is to Los Angeles, but I don't think Savard was even close to either of them in terms of importance to Montreal.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Well, maybe I just evaluate play-off scoring a little differently than you. I have Malkin in the play-off equalling his regular season play rather than exceeding it. His scoring actually goes down slightly in the play-offs. 1.19 points per game in the regular season and 1.05 in the play-offs. Crosby does the same - going from 1.29 to 1.14. That's normal, since play-off hockey does become closer-checking. Iginla, for what it's worth maintained his exact scoring pace in the play-offs.

Since putting up high totals in the play-offs is largely an extension of how far your team goes, I look at totals AND per game averages. Is it more impressive to score 10 goals in a 7 game first round loss or to score 15 goals in a Stanley Cup win? I would say the 10 goal guy was better than the 15 goal guy.

Yeah, we don't see it the same way.For me playoffs are a different beast, you have limited time and you need to get it done.I'm more focused on signature runs than PPG averages or comparisons with RS stats.This is unfair to some extent, maybe a large extent, but the bigger the player, the better I like this method.You have a shot, did you take it? You had three shots, did you take them? You had no shot? Unfair, but so be it.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Doughty is extremely important ad impactful too. Gerard may have been as important to Ottawa as Doughty is to Los Angeles, but I don't think Savard was even close to either of them in terms of importance to Montreal.

That's tricky because both Gerard and Savard played on much better teams, so their relative importance will be smaller by default, especially since they both played with the greatest player in the world.I'm not downplaying Doughty though, you can find many posts of mine defending him and even arguing I'd take him over Karlsson when Karlsson was at the peak of his powers (maybe I went back and forth, but those posts exist).Also, he should have won the Smythe.But Doughty is clearly the best player on his team, so that's +1 for him, but it's easier to do it when you're not playign with Nighbor or Lafleur, or say Crosby.

 

[Dreakmur]

Yeah, we don't see it the same way.For me playoffs are a different beast, you have limited time and you need to get it done.I'm more focused on signature runs than PPG averages or comparisons with RS stats.This is unfair to some extent, maybe a large extent, but the bigger the player, the better I like this method.You have a shot, did you take it? You had three shots, did you take them? You had no shot? Unfair, but so be it.

A lot of that has to do with luck, which is why I also look at per game averages. If Malkin scores like 2 points in the 2nd round, but the team wins anyway, that gives him another round to put up points that he didn't create for himself.

 

[BenchBrawl]

A lot of that has to do with luck, which is why I also look at per game averages. If Malkin scores like 2 points in the 2nd round, but the team wins anyway, that gives him another round to put up points that he didn't create for himself.

The better the player, the more his contribution matters in the outcome.

I guess I agree with you to some extent, but ultimately Malkin scored so many playoffs points inside SC runs, other players did not.I have no problem finding merit to both perspectives, even if I struggle to reconcile them in one unified framework.If I have to choose a final view, I'd take the one I mentioned above in a comparison.

You see my problem, is that you have guys like Ovechkin, where it is a big deal that he hasn't done it.For me, it is a big deal that Malkin did it, symmetrically.

Iginla had one great signature run, but I cannot in good conscience just take their PPG pace, compare the difference between their RS and POFF stats, and call it a wash (assuming the numbers would be equal).So if I cannot do that, I'm stuck with my way.