Jim Coleman Conference Finals - NJ Swamp Devils (1) vs Orillia Terriers (3)

[ImporterExporter]

NJ Swamp Devils (1)

Coach: Ken Hitchcock
Assistant/PP Coach: Bob Johnson

Vladimir Krutov - Sid Abel (C) - Guy Lafleur
Boris Mayorov (A) - Vyacheslav Starshinov - Bobby Bauer
Tony Leswick - Cooney Weiland - Mush March
Ab McDonald - Mike Ricci - Tim Kerr

Allan Stanley - Earl Seibert (A)
Vladimir Lutchenko - Flash Hollett
Vasili Pervukhin - Doug Young

George Hainsworth
Ben Bishop

PP1:
Tim Kerr
- Vladimir Krutov - Sid Abel - Guy Lafleur
Flash Hollett

PP2:
Boris Mayorov - Vyacheslav Starshinov - Bobby Bauer
Allan Stanley - Earl Seibert

PK1: Cooney Weiland - Tony Leswick - Allan Stanley - Earl Seibert
PK2: Viachelsav Starshinov - Mush Marsh - Vladimir Lutchenko - Doug Young
PK3: Vladimir Krutov - Sid Abel

Spares: Jack Evans (D), Steve Sullivan (F)


Estimated Ice Time

Forwards
Name	ES	PP	PK	Total
Vladimir Krutov	14	4	1	19
Sid Abel	14	4	1	19
Guy Lafleur	16	4*		20
Boris Mayorov	13	3		16
Vladimir Starshinov	13	3	2	18
Bobby Baeur	13	3		16
Tony Leswick	13		4	17
Conney Weiland	13		4	17
Mush March	13		2	15
Ab McDonald	6			6
Mike Ricci	6			6
Tim Kerr	4	4		8
Total	138	26*	14

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Defensemen	ES	PP	PK	Total
Allan Stanley	16	2	4	22
Earl Seibert	18	2	4	24
Vladimir Lutchenko	16		2	18
Flash Hollett	14	5		19
Vasili Pervukhin	13	1	1	15
Doug Young	13		3	16
Total	92	9	14

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

VS

'

Orillia Terriers (3)


Barry Trotz

Dean Prentice - Jonathan Toews "C" - Gordie Howe
Anatoli Firsov - Dave Keon "A" - Bernie Morris
Jack Marshall - Jason Spezza - Vladimir Tarasenko
Camille Henry - David Krejci - Bobby Schmautz

Wade Redden - Drew Doughty
Kevin Lowe "A" - Brent Burns
Keith Yandle - Jack Portland

Johnny Bower
Glenn Resch

Spares
Walt Buswell, D
Jaroslav Jirik, LW/RW
Buddy O'Connor, C

PP1 - Camille Henry - Bernie Morris - Gordie Howe - Brent Burns - Keith Yandle
PP2 - Anatoli Firsov - Jason Spezza - Vladimir Tarasenko - Drew Doughty - Wade Redden

PK1 - Dave Keon - Anatoli Firsov - Kevin Lowe - Jack Portland
PK2 - Jonathan Toews - Gordie Howe - Wade Redden - Drew Doughty​

Click to read more...

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

@Dreakmur, congrats on making it to the Conference finals and beating a very strong Chicago team to make it. I have to say that, at least for me, your arguments in the playoffs have really upped my esteem for your team more than any other ATD team in recent memory. Of course, now it's my job to poke holes in this team.

Looking forward to debating you this series. With my schedule this week, I would expect that I'll have some bursts of activity, followed by period of silence. Not necessarily the most conducive towards a debate, but it's what I can do.

 

[Habsfan18]

I expect there to be some strong back and fourths here. Good luck to both.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Containing Gordie Howe

A player like Howe can never be stopped, but I think NJ has the horses to contain the damage he can do.

The trio of Allan Stanley on LD (faces Howe in transition), Earl Seibert on RD (uses his massive size and strength to help against Howe in front of the net), and Tony Leswick on LW (harasses Howe up and down the ice) is about as good as a team can hope for when it comes to limiting the damage that Gordie Howe will do.

The 1960s Maple Leafs are the model for containing Howe

From 1958-59 to 1967-68, Allan Stanley was the top LD on the Toronto Maple Leafs, and he was usually faced with playing head to head against Gordie Howe.

During Stanley's tenure with Toronto, here is how Gordie Howe faired in the regular season:

Vs Toronto:
55 goals, 81 assists, 136 points, -3, in 135 games played.
0.41 goals per game, 1.01 points per game

Vs the other four teams:
247 goals, 374 assists, 621 points, +89, in 561 games played.
0.44 goals per game, 1.11 points per game

NHL.com Stats

The Leafs started this period as a so-so team, before wheeling off 4 Cups. For two of those Cups (1963 and 1964), they beat Howe's Red Wings in the finals.

Allan Stanley against Howe in transition

From Stanley's obituary:

“Allan was one of the best ‘angle’ defensemen,” Johnny Bower, a former Maple Leafs goalie and teammate of Stanley’s, said in an online feature for the Hockey Hall of Fame. “If Gordie Howe was coming down the wing, he would steer him to such a bad angle that there was no way that Howe could score a goal on you.”

Allan Stanley, 87, Dies; Helped Maple Leafs Win 4 N.H.L. Titles

Canadiens1958 was also quite complimentary about Stanley's work against Howe in the HOH defenseman project.

Earl Seibert's size and strength in front of the net

Of course, Stanley had a lot of help in Toronto. For starters, he had Tim Horton who had the "strength of a bear," and was known as the only player in the NHL who was physically powerful enough to outmuscle Howe. I think that Earl Seibert (also a RHS like Horton btw) can fulfill this role for the Swamp Devils, as his physical strength seems to have been his biggest asset as a player:

Seibert was generally regarded as second only to Eddie Shore in terms of skill and rugged play, and Shore once confessed that Seibert was the only man he was afraid to fight.

he was extraordinarily powerful and therefore respected.

His fine blend of strength, size, and skill drew the attention of many scouts.

Seibert was a strong, fast skater, an intimidating force with his stick and his body. He was also one of the better shot-blockers around. Earl also owned excellent puck-handling skills and he was almost impossible to knock off his skates.

In a word: STRONG

...if you're inclined to take the word of some of his teammates and opponents, he may have been the toughest player of his era from a toughness standpoint, the Seibert/Johnson twosome was most imposing in the NHL, a fact that Johnson often credited to Seibert's reputation as a bruiser. Usually though, Seibert's size was enough of a deterrent to ward off most aggressors

These quotes and more from seventieslord's profile of Seibert: ATD 2017 Bios. Because of the glitchy migration from the old server, you can only view this profile if you set your preferences to show only 10 posts per page....

Tony Leswick shadowing Howe

Toronto also used Bob Pulford at LW to shadow Howe in the 1960s, and Pulford is given a lot of credit. But at the beginning of Howe's career, it was Tony Leswick who gave him the most trouble. Leswick had a different style - he was dirtier and more of a pest than Pulford, but he got results:

The only player perhaps more dangerous to tick off (than Maurice Richard) was Gordie Howe - not only arguably the greatest player of all time, but perhaps the greatest fighter of all time too. Leswick fearlessly needled Mr. Hockey with great success. Like Richard, no one had as much success keeping Howe off of his game as Leswick did.

It was in shadowing the league's best players, however, that Leswick earned his stripes... some say Adams traded for Leswick so his boy, Gordie Howe, would not have to put up with the little NY Ranger pest anymore.

Conclusion: Gordie Howe is too good a player to completely stop. In fact, limiting his damage likely requires the efforts of more than one player. But between our top pairing of Stanley-Seibert, and Tony Leswick at LW, NJ has the horses to limit the damage that Gordie Howe can do.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

And of course, the flip side is that Wade Redden at LD vs Guy Lafleur at RW would be a huge mismatch in NJ's favor... but maybe that's not the plan, so I'll let Dreakmur comment further.

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

And of course, the flip side is that Wade Redden at LD vs Guy Lafleur at RD* would be a huge mismatch in NJ's favor... but maybe that's not the plan, so I'll let Dreakmur comment further.

*phonepost(?)

That aside, another way to address the Lafleur question is 'WWBD?'
[What Would Barry Do?]

 

[Dreakmur]

And of course, the flip side is that Wade Redden at LD vs Guy Lafleur at RD would be a huge mismatch in NJ's favor... but maybe that's not the plan, so I'll let Dreakmur comment further.

In defensive situations, Lowe could go with Doughty. Lowe isn’t a particularly good matchup either, though he’s pretty strong once set in defensive zone coverages. Even Portland could take a shift with Doughty or Lowe if that pair isn’t ready to go.

Dealing with Lafleur is mostly a C/LW job for Orillia. The combo of Toews/Prentice and Keon/Firsov is how we plan to deal best with Lafleur.

Unlike New Jersey’s Leswick option, Orillia doesn’t have to put their weaker players on he ice more often to get their preferred matchup. We just roll our top 6 and get the matchup we want regardless.

 

[Dreakmur]

First Lines: Dean Prentice - Jonathan Toews - Gordie Howe vs. Vladimir Krutov - Sid Abel - Guy Lafleur

I think I've gone over my top line a few times, but a brief overview.
-combined ES Vs.X score of 277.1, which has not yet been matched by one of my opponents.
-all 3 players are big, physical, and effective in puck battles and the dirty areas.
-all 3 players are good or very good defensively.

Guy Lafleur (102.7), Sid Abel (*83.4), and Vlaimir Krutov (**80.0) have a combined score of 266.1. That's the best unit I've face so far, and it's close to Orillia's group, but it's a little behind.
Abel is good defensively, Krutov is better than average, and I think Lafleur was pretty bad, right?
Abel is a really strong physical player, Krutov is good too. Lafleur won't be intimidated, but he is much more of an open ice player than a guy built for the battles.

*Sid Abel's score is adjusted for both the war years and benefiting from Gordie Howe. For the war years, I averaged out 1941, 1942, 1943, 1947, 1948, and 1949, which was 74.7. That 74.7 score was then applied to 1944, 1945, and 1946. After that, I took his best 7 scores. If Goride Howe scored higher than the normal benchmark, I used Howe's number instead of the regular benchmark.

**This is a score I attributed to him. I based that by my opinion that Krutov is approximately as good as guys like Brendan Shanahan, Michel Goulet, and John LeClair.​

Overall, Orillia's line relies more on Gordie Howe to create offense than New Jersety relies on Guy Lafleur - at even strength, Abel and Krutov are each a little better than Toews and Prentice offensively. The Orillia unit, however, does share the dirty work a lot better than New Jersey - all 3 members of the unit play well defensively and grind it out.

Despite New Jersey putting together a really strong unit, Orillia's is a little better in just about every aspect. Edge to Orillia.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

In defensive situations, Lowe could go with Doughty. Lowe isn’t a particularly good matchup either, though he’s pretty strong once set in defensive zone coverages. Even Portland could take a shift with Doughty or Lowe if that pair isn’t ready to go.

Dealing with Lafleur is mostly a C/LW job for Orillia. The combo of Toews/Prentice and Keon/Firsov is how we plan to deal best with Lafleur.

Unlike New Jersey’s Leswick option, Orillia doesn’t have to put their weaker players on he ice more often to get their preferred matchup. We just roll our top 6 and get the matchup we want regardless.

One problem with using Lowe-Doughty against my first line is that it would leave you with a Redden-Burns pairing, which isn't particularly good defensively, and would likely be quite vulnerable to the cycling game of NJ's Starshinov line, considering Redden's softness and Burns' focus on offense.

And of course, how much a solid but non-elite defensive guy like Lowe (Norris record 5, 8, 10) can slow down Lafleur is also a question.

First Lines: Dean Prentice - Jonathan Toews - Gordie Howe vs. Vladimir Krutov - Sid Abel - Guy Lafleur

I think I've gone over my top line a few times, but a brief overview.
-combined ES Vs.X score of 277.1, which has not yet been matched by one of my opponents.
-all 3 players are big, physical, and effective in puck battles and the dirty areas.
-all 3 players are good or very good defensively.

Guy Lafleur (102.7), Sid Abel (*83.4), and Vlaimir Krutov (**80.0) have a combined score of 266.1. That's the best unit I've face so far, and it's close to Orillia's group, but it's a little behind.
Abel is good defensively, Krutov is better than average, and I think Lafleur was pretty bad, right?
Abel is a really strong physical player, Krutov is good too. Lafleur won't be intimidated, but he is much more of an open ice player than a guy built for the battles.

*Sid Abel's score is adjusted for both the war years and benefiting from Gordie Howe. For the war years, I averaged out 1941, 1942, 1943, 1947, 1948, and 1949, which was 74.7. That 74.7 score was then applied to 1944, 1945, and 1946. After that, I took his best 7 scores. If Goride Howe scored higher than the normal benchmark, I used Howe's number instead of the regular benchmark.

**This is a score I attributed to him. I based that by my opinion that Krutov is approximately as good as guys like Brendan Shanahan, Michel Goulet, and John LeClair.​

Overall, Orillia's line relies more on Gordie Howe to create offense than New Jersety relies on Guy Lafleur - at even strength, Abel and Krutov are each a little better than Toews and Prentice offensively. The Orillia unit, however, does share the dirty work a lot better than New Jersey - all 3 members of the unit play well defensively and grind it out.

Despite New Jersey putting together a really strong unit, Orillia's is a little better in just about every aspect. Edge to Orillia.

I think it's crazy to assign a score of 80 to Krutov. While he wasn't a full on power forward like Shanahan and LeClair, I'm pretty certain he was better offensively. I mean, this is the clear cut 2nd best Soviet scorer of the 1980s.

You've been assigning a score of 90 to Firsov all along, and while I believe Firsov was better away from the puck than Krutov, I struggle to see what makes him that much better offensively.

____

Your Abel estimate seems mostly fair - what seasons did Gordie Howe factor in? I did a pretty detailed analysis another time I had Abel and determined that it looked like he was propped up by Howe in only his last 2 seasons; before then, young Howe wasn't noticeably better than Lindsay and Abel.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

*phonepost(?)

That aside, another way to address the Lafleur question is 'WWBD?'
[What Would Barry Do?]

Heh... I edited after seeing your post.

(Seems hfboards no longer tells us when someone edits their post?)

 

[Theokritos]

Heh... I edited after seeing your post.

(Seems hfboards no longer tells us when someone edits their post?)

It still does. Isn't it displayed on your screen?

 

[Dreakmur]

One problem with using Lowe-Doughty against my first line is that it would leave you with a Redden-Burns pairing, which isn't particularly good defensively, and would likely be quite vulnerable to the cycling game of NJ's Starshinov line, considering Redden's softness and Burns' focus on offense.

Not every team has such a rigid structure for defensive pairings. Redden-Burns is an option, but so is Redden-Portland or Portland-Burns.

Burns is actually really strong against a cycle. He's huge, quick, and always finishes his checks. His defensive weaknesses come from being overly aggressive on odd-man rushes and joining the offense too aggressively, neither of which impact him in the defensive zone.

My opinion might change once I take a closer look, but I’m not sure I have to worry much about your second line, especially if I can keep them going head to head with either Toews or Keon.

And of course, how much a solid but non-elite defensive guy like Lowe (Norris record 5, 8, 10) can slow down Lafleur is also a question.

As I said, the primary focus for Lafleur are the duos of Firsov/Keon and Prentice/Toews.

In open ice, Lowe has about as good a chance at stopping Lafleur as Stanley has of stopping Howe

I think it's crazy to assign a score of 80 to Krutov. While he wasn't a full on power forward like Shanahan and LeClair, I'm pretty certain he was better offensively. I mean, this is the clear cut 2nd best Soviet scorer of the 1980s.

You've been assigning a score of 90 to Firsov all along, and while I believe Firsov was better away from the puck than Krutov, I struggle to see what makes him that much better offensively.

Krutov has the second best offensive numbers of the 80s, but what does that mean when you play almost exclusively with the two best soviets ever?

Can we even name Firsov's linemates without looking it up?

Your Abel estimate seems mostly fair - what seasons did Gordie Howe factor in? I did a pretty detailed analysis another time I had Abel and determined that it looked like he was propped up by Howe in only his last 2 seasons; before then, young Howe wasn't noticeably better than Lindsay and Abel.

If Howe was ahead of the benchmark, I used him. I think that was two of the seasons.

 

[Dreakmur]

Second Lines: Anatoli Firsov - Dave Keon - Bernie Morris vs. Boris Mayorov - Vyacheslav Starshinov - Bobby Bauer

Firsov(90.0), Morris (85.9), and Keon(73.0) combine for an ES score of 248.9

Firsov was a big game player. Morris has a couple of elite play-offs. Keon was a consistently excellent play-off performer.

I've done my usual war time adjustment for Bobby Bauer, and he comes away with an 82.7.
Mayorov and Starshinov are a bit trickier. I have Mayorov in the Dave Taylor/Zach Parise range, so I think a score of 70 is fair. I have Starshinov in the Mats Sundin/Mike Modano range, so I have him at 82.5. That gives them a line total of 235.2.

Bobby Bauer wasn't a great play-off performer, though he wasn't terrible. Both Mayorov and Starshinov were good internationally.

With the edge in score being further enlarged by solid play-off prowess, Orillia has a pretty good edge in offensive output coming from the second lines.
Defensively, Bauer and Morris are non-factors. Firsov is better than Mayorov. Keon is better than Starshinov. Don't think there should be much disagreement there. Orillia has the defensive edge.

The combo of Mayorov-Starshinov is bigger, stronger, and more physical than the combo of Firsov-Keon, though they are probably more aggressive in their pursuits. New Jersey's line is stronger on the cycle, while Orillia is strong on the rush.

Edge to Orillia.


Third Lines: Jack Marshall - Jason Spezza - Vladimir Tarasenko vs. Tony Leswick - Cooney Weiland - Mush March

These lines have very different roles, so it's tough to compare, but let's give it a shot.

Orillia has a combined ES. Vs.x of 214.6

Cooney Weiland only has a few seasons with recorded special teams numbers, but even just those few seasons drop his ES score to 74.1 He seemed to score a lot on the PP, which surprised me. Tony Leswick (61.0) ad Mush March (54.4) aren't particularly good ES scorers either. Their line total is 189.5.

Defensively, every member of the New Jersey line is better than their Orillia counterpart. Same for physicality.

Edge to New Jersey.

 

[Dreakmur]

Defensemen:

Drew Doughty vs. Earl Seibert
- Doughty is a well-rounded defenseman with few holes. He's not great at anything, but he's pretty good at everything.
- Seibert is also a well-rounded defenseman with few holes. He's probably really good at everything.
- Seibert has a small edge in every area, so obvious edge for New Jersey

Brent Burns vs. Allan Stanley
- Burns is a high impact risk-reward player. Norris - 1, 2, 3, *5, 8, 10, 12 (*players voted him 5th best defesneman in 2020)
- Stanley is totally opposite; super steady and reliable. Norris - 2, 3, 7, 8, 8, 8, 10, 12
- Cancel out the same Norris scores and it's 1, *5 vs. 7, 8, 8. I'm not sure Burns hasn't passed Stanley by this point. Maybe a slight edge for Orillia, maybe a wash.

Kevin Lowe vs. Vladimir Lutchenko
- Lowe is mostly a stay-at-home defensive defenseman. He was viewed as one of the elite defensive defensemen of his time. He makes a real good 1st pass, having an ES vs.x of 66.0
- Lutchenko is more of a all-rounder, with no big strengths or big weaknesses.
- Lowe's better defensively. Lutchenko might be better offensive, I don't know. Maybe a slight edge for Orillia, maybe a wash.

Wade Redden vs. Flash Hollett
- Redden is a well-rounded defenseman with no major holes. Solid on defense, solid puck-moving. Norris - 5, 9, 10, 11, 12 (plus a missed lockout season at his peak)
- Hollett... I don't know. Without knowing how much he scored at forward, it's impossible to really evaluate how good he was as an offensive defenseman. He has strong all-star consideration during the worst war years. So, did he just happen to peak at that time, or was the league weak enough to make him look good?
- Maybe a slight edge for New Jersey, maybe a wash.

Jack Portland vs. Doug Young
- Portland is a huge, physical, stay-at-home defenseman. All-star - 5, 7, 7
- Young is a more balanced guy, well-rounded. All-star - 7, 9, 10
- Edge for Orillia.

Keith Yandle vs. Vasili Pervuhkin
- Keith is an offensive defenseman and PP specialist.
- Pervuhkin is an offensive defenseman and not terrible defensively.
- Though Keith is a much better PP pointman, this is pretty close at ES. Probably a wash.


New Jersey has a much stronger 1st Pair.
Orillia has a much stronger 2nd Pair.
Orillia has a stronger 3rd Pair.

 

[Dreakmur]

Goaltending: Johnny Bower vs. Georges Hainsworth
- Bower is a proven big-game goalie who went head to head, and often beat, the best era for all-time goalies. All-Star - 1, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5 (against Jacques Plante, Glenn Hall, Terry Sawchuk)
- Hainsworth has been built up really well by TDMM this year. His GM all-star teams are as good as any other voted awards.
- When he was drafted, I thought he would be one of the weakest starters, but with a lot of new info presented, I think Hainsworth is probably average. Bower's better than average, so I think the edge is for Orillia.

 

[Dreakmur]

Orillia's scoring Depth
- Orillia's 1st Line has a scoring edge over New Jersey's 1st Line.
- Orillia's 2nd Line has a scoring edge over New Jersey's 2nd Line.
- Orillia's 3rd Line has a scoring edge over New Jersey's 3rd Line.

New Jersey stacking their first pair means they do have an excellent top unit, but it also means the rest of their back-end is vulnerable. A team like Orillia, with 3 lines who can score, can really expose those weaker 2nd and 3rd pairings.

Match-up Game
- New Jersey wants to use their Leswick-Weiland-March line to match up against Prentice-Toews-Howe.
- Orillia wants to match their top two lines against New Jersey's top two lines.

Generally, I think it's a bad idea to play your weaker players more. Trying to use their 3rd line in a hard match-up just means they end up taking ice time away from better players. Orillia doesn't have to do that - our best players are who we want to use in those hard match-ups. Not only do I think my top two lines will outmatch New Jersey's, but it allow ensures that my best players will be on the ice a lot more in key situations.

If New Jersey wants to use Stanley and Seibert with their third line, that takes away a lot of what they bring. Yes, Stanley and Seibert are very strong defensively, but a big part of their games is to move the puck up ice and help create offense. That won't be very effective with Leswick and March being such poor offensive threats. New Jersey might shut down one of Orillia's lines by employing this tactic, but that's where the scoring depth comes in.

Special Teams
- Orillia's PK forwards are super dangerous threats to score short-handed (Keon-Firsov and Toews-Howe)
- New Jersey's PP1 point men are extremely vulnerable on rushes against (Hollett is the only D)

With Abel and Krutov being decent, but not great, threats down low, the Orillia forwards can play aggressively out high. That will allow us to pressure Hollett more aggressively. A couple turn-overs, even if they don't lead to goals, could put the New Jersey unit on their heels, and force them to play a lot more passively.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

It still does. Isn't it displayed on your screen?

I don't know whether the website or my eyesight was glitchy the other night, but I see it now.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Second Lines: Anatoli Firsov - Dave Keon - Bernie Morris vs. Boris Mayorov - Vyacheslav Starshinov - Bobby Bauer

Firsov(90.0), Morris (85.9), and Keon(73.0) combine for an ES score of 248.9

Firsov was a big game player. Morris has a couple of elite play-offs. Keon was a consistently excellent play-off performer.

I've done my usual war time adjustment for Bobby Bauer, and he comes away with an 82.7.
Mayorov and Starshinov are a bit trickier. I have Mayorov in the Dave Taylor/Zach Parise range, so I think a score of 70 is fair. I have Starshinov in the Mats Sundin/Mike Modano range, so I have him at 82.5. That gives them a line total of 235.2.

Bobby Bauer wasn't a great play-off performer, though he wasn't terrible. Both Mayorov and Starshinov were good internationally.

With the edge in score being further enlarged by solid play-off prowess, Orillia has a pretty good edge in offensive output coming from the second lines.
Defensively, Bauer and Morris are non-factors. Firsov is better than Mayorov. Keon is better than Starshinov. Don't think there should be much disagreement there. Orillia has the defensive edge.

The combo of Mayorov-Starshinov is bigger, stronger, and more physical than the combo of Firsov-Keon, though they are probably more aggressive in their pursuits. New Jersey's line is stronger on the cycle, while Orillia is strong on the rush.

Edge to Orillia.


Third Lines: Jack Marshall - Jason Spezza - Vladimir Tarasenko vs. Tony Leswick - Cooney Weiland - Mush March

These lines have very different roles, so it's tough to compare, but let's give it a shot.

Orillia has a combined ES. Vs.x of 214.6

Cooney Weiland only has a few seasons with recorded special teams numbers, but even just those few seasons drop his ES score to 74.1 He seemed to score a lot on the PP, which surprised me. Tony Leswick (61.0) ad Mush March (54.4) aren't particularly good ES scorers either. Their line total is 189.5.

Defensively, every member of the New Jersey line is better than their Orillia counterpart. Same for physicality.

Edge to New Jersey.

Yes, your second line is your team's biggest strength - it's probably the best second line in the draft and a big reason you went this far.

Out of curiosity, why do you give Starshinov such a higher score than Mayorov, when you said during the draft that you thought Mayorov might be even better than Starshinov?

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Krutov has the second best offensive numbers of the 80s, but what does that mean when you play almost exclusively with the two best soviets ever?

Can we even name Firsov's linemates without looking it up?

But Krutov was widely thought to be on Makarov's level or maybe even slightly better for a little while around the time of the 1987 Canada Cup (in the Soviet league, as well). Obviously, Makarov was way better over the long haul of the 1980s, but Krutov was a dangerous scorer on his own.

Firsov did center Kharlamov for a year, but yes, his regular linemates in the late 1960s are guys we don't really talk about.

 

[Dreakmur]

But Krutov was widely thought to be on Makarov's level or maybe even slightly better for a little while around the time of the 1987 Canada Cup (in the Soviet league, as well). Obviously, Makarov was way better over the long haul of the 1980s, but Krutov was a dangerous scorer on his own.

A score of 80 is a dangerous scorer, isn't it?

Yes, your second line is your team's biggest strength - it's probably the best second line in the draft and a big reason you went this far.

Out of curiosity, why do you give Starshinov such a higher score than Mayorov, when you said during the draft that you thought Mayorov might be even better than Starshinov?

I thought Mayorov did all the work, and Starshinov just stood in front. That seems to have not been the case.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Defensemen:

Drew Doughty vs. Earl Seibert
- Doughty is a well-rounded defenseman with few holes. He's not great at anything, but he's pretty good at everything.
- Seibert is also a well-rounded defenseman with few holes. He's probably really good at everything.
- Seibert has a small edge in every area, so obvious edge for New Jersey

Agree, moderate advantage NJ. Note that the one real outstanding strength for Seibert was, well, his physical strength.

Brent Burns vs. Allan Stanley
- Burns is a high impact risk-reward player. Norris - 1, 2, 3, *5, 8, 10, 12 (*players voted him 5th best defesneman in 2020)
- Stanley is totally opposite; super steady and reliable. Norris - 2, 3, 7, 8, 8, 8, 10, 12
- Cancel out the same Norris scores and it's 1, *5 vs. 7, 8, 8. I'm not sure Burns hasn't passed Stanley by this point. Maybe a slight edge for Orillia, maybe a wash.

Mostly fair, but two small points:

1) Burns plays in an era where a certain percentage of writers just vote for the highest scoring defenseman. As an offense-first defenseman, his Norris record probably somewhat overrates him.

2) Stanley has an outstanding playoff record that has to give him at least somewhat of a boost. Burns' playoff record is... neutral?

So I'd say maybe a slight edge for NJ, maybe a wash.

Kevin Lowe vs. Vladimir Lutchenko

- Lowe is mostly a stay-at-home defensive defenseman. He was viewed as one of the elite defensive defensemen of his time. He makes a real good 1st pass, having an ES vs.x of 66.0
- Lutchenko is more of a all-rounder, with no big strengths or big weaknesses.
- Lowe's better defensively. Lutchenko might be better offensive, I don't know. Maybe a slight edge for Orillia, maybe a wash.

Okay, I find that most of our disagreements are relatively minor quibbles, but this is the one outrageous comparison that you've made. Vladimir Lutchenko was a 1st Team Soviet All-Star for 7 straight seasons from 1971 to 1977 - at basically the height of the Soviet league's power. He's a lot closer to someone like Pospisil than he is to the likes of Kevin Lowe. Lowe was a good defensive defenseman, but with a Norris record of 5, 8, 10, he is no Lutcnenko. I realize Lowe was a defensive defenseman, but he also played for a glamour team, so I think his Norris record is more or less a true indication of his ability.

Lutchenko is probably just as good defensively as Kevin Lowe (who again, was a good defensive defenseman, but not a superstar one by any means), while being substantially better away from the puck. Lutchenko was a really well-rounded player.

Substantial advantage for NJ. Lutchenko could be a low-end #2 in a 40 team draft, while I honestly don't see what separates Lowe from some of the better #4s out there. Frankly, I prefer Flash Hollett to Kevin Lowe, and I think Wade Redden is on the same level as him (with a totally different skillset of course).

Wade Redden vs. Flash Hollett

- Redden is a well-rounded defenseman with no major holes. Solid on defense, solid puck-moving. Norris - 5, 9, 10, 11, 12 (plus a missed lockout season at his peak)
- Hollett... I don't know. Without knowing how much he scored at forward, it's impossible to really evaluate how good he was as an offensive defenseman. He has strong all-star consideration during the worst war years. So, did he just happen to peak at that time, or was the league weak enough to make him look good?
- Maybe a slight edge for New Jersey, maybe a wash.

This is what I estimated Hollett's all-star record to be last round:

Hollett’s adjusted All-Star ranks: 3, 4*, 4**, 10*
*adjusted war year downwards
**adjusted 1942 upwards (Hollett played 1/4 of the season as a forward and finished somewhere between 4th and 8th in Hart voting).

It's a rough fudge, but it's better than Redden's record of 5, 9, 10 no matter how you look at it. And it assumes Hollett gets zero votes in the years he played as a swing F/D but didn't get any Hart votes that we know of.

Small to moderate advantage NJ.

Jack Portland vs. Doug Young
- Portland is a huge, physical, stay-at-home defenseman. All-star - 5, 7, 7
- Young is a more balanced guy, well-rounded. All-star - 7, 9, 10
- Edge for Orillia.

Agree for the most part. Young should get some bonus points for captaining a pair of Cup winners, though he was injured for one. Small edge for Orillia. However, note that I consider Young to be my #6 at even strength.

Keith Yandle vs. Vasili Pervuhkin
- Keith is an offensive defenseman and PP specialist.
- Pervuhkin is an offensive defenseman and not terrible defensively.
- Though Keith is a much better PP pointman, this is pretty close at ES. Probably a wash.

I think that the well-rounded Pevukhin - the 3rd best Soviet defenseman of the late 70s (behind Vasiliev/Lutchenko) and early 80s (behind Fetisov/Kasatonov) is a better even strength defenseman than Keith Yandle.

In fact, I think Pervukhin is probably the best defenseman on either team's bottom pairing. He was a 1st Team Soviet league all-star in 1979, and finished 5th in Soviet Player of the Year voting (a rare feat for a defenseman to even be placed) in both 1977 and 1985. That's easily the best awards record of any Soviet defenseman of the era, other than the guys above whom I've named.

While I think that Keith Yandle is a good bottom pairing PP specialist - probably the best PP defenseman when you drafted him - he's easily the worst defenseman in either team's starting lineup at even strength.

How I see it:

• NJ has a significantly better #1
• #2s are close (I prefer NJ's for the reasons above but reasonable people could differ)
• NJ has a significantly better #3
• NJ has a slightly better #4
• On the bottom pairing, at even strength, I rank the defensemen: Pervukhin (NJ), Portland (Orillia), Young (NJ), Yandle (Orillia).

NJ has a substantially better blueline. And in my opinion, this strength on the blueline is enough to overcome Orillia's large advantage on the second line.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Goaltending: Johnny Bower vs. Georges Hainsworth
- Bower is a proven big-game goalie who went head to head, and often beat, the best era for all-time goalies. All-Star - 1, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5 (against Jacques Plante, Glenn Hall, Terry Sawchuk)
- Hainsworth has been built up really well by TDMM this year. His GM all-star teams are as good as any other voted awards.
- When he was drafted, I thought he would be one of the weakest starters, but with a lot of new info presented, I think Hainsworth is probably average. Bower's better than average, so I think the edge is for Orillia.

Thanks - I knew from Iain Fyffe's commentary on his blog that Hainsworth, while overrated by those who just take a cursory look at his stats, had become at least somewhat underrated here. But finding those all-star teams was really nice.

All Star records:
Bower: 1, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5
Hainsworth: 1, 2, 2, 3*, 4, 4, 5, 5

*Hainsworth was a 1st Team WHL All-Star when that league was the NHL's only rival, but I'll be conservative and call this a 3rd between both leagues.

Hainsworth's all-star record is actually a step up from Bower's, but Bower's competition was tougher, so call it even.

Hainsworth kills Bower in longevity/durability. I realize it wasn't really Bower's fault that he didn't play more often, but Hainsworth's longevity/durability was incredible - we are talking Brodeur/Hall level. I realize it isn't the most important thing, but it has to count for something.

Bower's big claim to fame was being a money goalie in the playoffs, as he was the starter for 3.5 Cups (he and Sawchuk platooned for the 1967 Cup). Hainsworth himself was starter for 2 Cups. Both men were awarded a single Retroactive Conn Smythe from the SIHR/HHOF study group.

Bower's big additional claim to fame? High save percentages, back when it wasn't an officially recorded stat. IMO, his save percentage records are highly suspect, as they based on a count where the Imlach-coached defense-first dynasty Leafs apparently allowed the most shots in the NHL. IMO, either the Leafs' shot counter had a liberal view of what constituted a "shot" at a time before anyone actually cared about save percentage (remember, save percentage wouldn't even become an official stat until the early 1980s), or the Leafs played a style that allowed lots of low-quality shots. (I have no watched enough O6 Leafs games to have an informed opinion on the matter). The only other option is that the Leafs were a bad defensive team, which goes against literally anything written about the team, by either casual fans or experts.

______________________________________

IMO, Hainsworth is indeed an average starter at 40 teams... but so is Bower! IMO, if one is skeptical about save percentage stats from the late 60s for reasons I posted above, then Bower was probably no better than the 20ish range of goaltenders here - which is exactly where I have Hainsworth.

IMO, you'd have to place a fairly high value on being the starter for a dynasty (vs the starter for merely back-to-back Cups) to think Bower is a significant advantage over Hainsworth.

 

[Dreakmur]

Mostly fair, but two small points:

1) Burns plays in an era where a certain percentage of writers just vote for the highest scoring defenseman. As an offense-first defenseman, his Norris record probably somewhat overrates him.

2) Stanley has an outstanding playoff record that has to give him at least somewhat of a boost. Burns' playoff record is... neutral?

So I'd say maybe a slight edge for NJ, maybe a wash.

I'm not sure I would say Stanley was particularly great in the play-offs. He seemed to have been the same as he was in the regular season. I've said many times before, playing on a good team gives guys more games to score points.

Burns has some really good runs, and some really good IIHFs but yeah, he's probably about neutral.

Okay, I find that most of our disagreements are relatively minor quibbles, but this is the one outrageous comparison that you've made. Vladimir Lutchenko was a 1st Team Soviet All-Star for 7 straight seasons from 1971 to 1977 - at basically the height of the Soviet league's power. He's a lot closer to someone like Pospisil than he is to the likes of Kevin Lowe. Lowe was a good defensive defenseman, but with a Norris record of 5, 8, 10, he is no Lutcnenko. I realize Lowe was a defensive defenseman, but he also played for a glamour team, so I think his Norris record is more or less a true indication of his ability.

Lutchenko is probably just as good defensively as Kevin Lowe (who again, was a good defensive defenseman, but not a superstar one by any means), while being substantially better away from the puck. Lutchenko was a really well-rounded player.

Substantial advantage for NJ. Lutchenko could be a low-end #2 in a 40 team draft, while I honestly don't see what separates Lowe from some of the better #4s out there. Frankly, I prefer Flash Hollett to Kevin Lowe, and I think Wade Redden is on the same level as him (with a totally different skillset of course).

What was Lutchenko's competition for those all-star votes? Outisde Vasiliev, those soviet teams of the 1970s have some pretty weak defensemen.

I think it would be fair to call Lowe an elite defensive defenseman, no? Who was better defensively, Bourque, Stevens, Ramsey....

This is what I estimated Hollett's all-star record to be last round:

Hollett’s adjusted All-Star ranks: 3, 4*, 4**, 10*
*adjusted war year downwards
**adjusted 1942 upwards (Hollett played 1/4 of the season as a forward and finished somewhere between 4th and 8th in Hart voting).

It's a rough fudge, but it's better than Redden's record of 5, 9, 10 no matter how you look at it. And it assumes Hollett gets zero votes in the years he played as a swing F/D but didn't get any Hart votes that we know of.

Small to moderate advantage NJ.

Maybe, I still don't think Hollett can be properly placed until we know when he scored his points.

I think that the well-rounded Pevukhin - the 3rd best Soviet defenseman of the late 70s (behind Vasiliev/Lutchenko) and early 80s (behind Fetisov/Kasatonov) is a better even strength defenseman than Keith Yandle.

In fact, I think Pervukhin is probably the best defenseman on either team's bottom pairing. He was a 1st Team Soviet league all-star in 1979, and finished 5th in Soviet Player of the Year voting (a rare feat for a defenseman to even be placed) in both 1977 and 1985. That's easily the best awards record of any Soviet defenseman of the era, other than the guys above whom I've named.

While I think that Keith Yandle is a good bottom pairing PP specialist - probably the best PP defenseman when you drafted him - he's easily the worst defenseman in either team's starting lineup at even strength.

I just really don't like these Soviet defencemen. I've had both 1972 and 1974 summit series games on VHS since I was like 10. Probably watched them 50 times. I like Vasiliev, but the rest look like junk. I suppose that's just my opinion, but I like to think I know defensemen lol

How I see it:

• NJ has a significantly better #1
• #2s are close (I prefer NJ's for the reasons above but reasonable people could differ)
• NJ has a significantly better #3
• NJ has a slightly better #4
• On the bottom pairing, at even strength, I rank the defensemen: Pervukhin (NJ), Portland (Orillia), Young (NJ), Yandle (Orillia).

NJ has a substantially better blueline. And in my opinion, this strength on the blueline is enough to overcome Orillia's large advantage on the second line.

I suppose that's the advantage of having so many non-NHLers. They're so hard to truly rank, and I think a lot of the mid-ranged guys get over-rated.

 

[Dreakmur]

Thanks - I knew from Iain Fyffe's commentary on his blog that Hainsworth, while overrated by those who just take a cursory look at his stats, had become at least somewhat underrated here. But finding those all-star teams was really nice.

All Star records:
Bower: 1, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5
Hainsworth: 1, 2, 2, 3*, 4, 4, 5, 5

*Hainsworth was a 1st Team WHL All-Star when that league was the NHL's only rival, but I'll be conservative and call this a 3rd between both leagues.

Hainsworth's all-star record is actually a step up from Bower's, but Bower's competition was tougher, so call it even.

Hainsworth kills Bower in longevity/durability. I realize it wasn't really Bower's fault that he didn't play more often, but Hainsworth's longevity/durability was incredible - we are talking Brodeur/Hall level. I realize it isn't the most important thing, but it has to count for something.

Bower's big claim to fame was being a money goalie in the playoffs, as he was the starter for 3.5 Cups (he and Sawchuk platooned for the 1967 Cup). Hainsworth himself was starter for 2 Cups. Both men were awarded a single Retroactive Conn Smythe from the SIHR/HHOF study group.

Bower's big additional claim to fame? High save percentages, back when it wasn't an officially recorded stat. IMO, his save percentage records are highly suspect, as they based on a count where the Imlach-coached defense-first dynasty Leafs apparently allowed the most shots in the NHL. IMO, either the Leafs' shot counter had a liberal view of what constituted a "shot" at a time before anyone actually cared about save percentage (remember, save percentage wouldn't even become an official stat until the early 1980s), or the Leafs played a style that allowed lots of low-quality shots. (I have no watched enough O6 Leafs games to have an informed opinion on the matter). The only other option is that the Leafs were a bad defensive team, which goes against literally anything written about the team, by either casual fans or experts.

______________________________________

IMO, Hainsworth is indeed an average starter at 40 teams... but so is Bower! IMO, if one is skeptical about save percentage stats from the late 60s for reasons I posted above, then Bower was probably no better than the 20ish range of goaltenders here - which is exactly where I have Hainsworth.

IMO, you'd have to place a fairly high value on being the starter for a dynasty (vs the starter for merely back-to-back Cups) to think Bower is a significant advantage over Hainsworth.

If we're going to ride the Soviet all-stars, why wouldn't we count Bower's all-time AHL all-star record? The AHL of the 6 team era was a better league than any of the other non-NHL leagues of any era. 3 Calder Cups, 3 MVPs, 5 x 1st All-Star. Sure, we can say those aren't peak years, but they sure as hell are great years for longevity.

As for Bower's competition for his accolades, they weren't just a little better. Bower or Belfour probably have the toughest competition of all time.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Orillia's scoring Depth
- Orillia's 1st Line has a scoring edge over New Jersey's 1st Line.
- Orillia's 2nd Line has a scoring edge over New Jersey's 2nd Line.
- Orillia's 3rd Line has a scoring edge over New Jersey's 3rd Line.

New Jersey stacking their first pair means they do have an excellent top unit, but it also means the rest of their back-end is vulnerable. A team like Orillia, with 3 lines who can score, can really expose those weaker 2nd and 3rd pairings.

Yes, you have loads of scoring depth - one of the best teams in the draft in that aspect. You made a couple of big sacrifices to get it - namely, your defensemen, but also the defensive ability from your bottom 6. But it is definitely a team strength.

The one thing above that I disagree with is that your first line has a scoring edge over NJ's first line. For one, I just don't believe that Krutov was no better than Shanahan or LeClair when it comes to strictly offense, which is the assumption you are making. Krutov terrified Team Canada in the Canada Cups, and it wasn't like that those games were anything close to outliers for his career.

Also, I've never been totally comfortable with just adding up the VsX scores of a line to indicate its offensive value - I think it gets you close to the right answer, but in the case of your top line, where the line has a small "advantage," driven entirely by one player (Howe)? Will Prentice and Toews, who have a combined 3 top 10 finishes in goals be able to finish off Gordie Howe's passes enough to make full use of Howe's offensive potential?

I think that the offensive output of these top lines is well within the "margin of error."

Match-up Game
- New Jersey wants to use their Leswick-Weiland-March line to match up against Prentice-Toews-Howe.
- Orillia wants to match their top two lines against New Jersey's top two lines.

Generally, I think it's a bad idea to play your weaker players more. Trying to use their 3rd line in a hard match-up just means they end up taking ice time away from better players. Orillia doesn't have to do that - our best players are who we want to use in those hard match-ups. Not only do I think my top two lines will outmatch New Jersey's, but it allow ensures that my best players will be on the ice a lot more in key situations.

I don't think anyone would expect Tony Leswick to play as often as Gordie Howe. For example, I'm sure the Abel line will take some offensive zone draws, while your top line is taking defensive zone draws.

That leads me to the weakness of the construction of Orillia's forwards. I'm not immediately going to reject a team for having an offensive-oriented bottom 6, when the top 6 can play defense just fine. But it does create a weakness for your team. Namely, your team is constructed to give all the tough defensive assignments to your top 2 lines. It creates the situation where your best offensive players are going to be taking a lot of defensive zone draws, while the Spezza line, which is good offensively for a 3rd line but still weaker than any halfway decent 1st or 2nd line, is going to be taking a large portion of your offensive zone draws, since your sure don't want them playing defense if at all possible.

If New Jersey wants to use Stanley and Seibert with their third line, that takes away a lot of what they bring. Yes, Stanley and Seibert are very strong defensively, but a big part of their games is to move the puck up ice and help create offense. That won't be very effective with Leswick and March being such poor offensive threats. New Jersey might shut down one of Orillia's lines by employing this tactic, but that's where the scoring depth comes in.

When Ken Hitchcock coached the Dallas stars, he used the Hatcher - Matvichuk pairing for all the key defensive situations as much as possible, and the Sydor - Zubov pairing for all the key offensive situations as much as possible. I can see him running the Swamp Devils' defense the same way. Stanley-Seibert is fantastic defensively, while still being capable of making good first passes, and they will be used in all the key defensive situations as much as possible. While Lutchenko-Hollett will be used in more offensive situations - Hollett is clearly NJ's best offensive defenseman, and Lutchenko is pretty solid both ways.

Special Teams
- Orillia's PK forwards are super dangerous threats to score short-handed (Keon-Firsov and Toews-Howe)
- New Jersey's PP1 point men are extremely vulnerable on rushes against (Hollett is the only D)

With Abel and Krutov being decent, but not great, threats down low, the Orillia forwards can play aggressively out high. That will allow us to pressure Hollett more aggressively. A couple turn-overs, even if they don't lead to goals, could put the New Jersey unit on their heels, and force them to play a lot more passively.

On the other hand, I think NJ has the horses to just kill penalties off better than Orillia. Stanley-Seibert are strong enough defensemen to control the front of the net in a way that Lowe-Portland can only dream of. And controlling the front of the net is especially important in this series, as each power play contains one of the true great PP net presence specialists of all time (Camille Henry and Tim Kerr).

And while Keon, Firsov, and Howe are a great top 3 PK forwards, and Toews is adequate as a 2nd pairing PK guy, where is the depth? There are many times when teams need a 3rd wave of PK forwards - extended penalty time, injuries, penalty to one of your main PK guys. While Jack Marshall can probably fill in as a depth PK winger, that's about it. Prentice and Krejci were ok defensive players, but they barely killed penalties in real life (Prentice killed 14% of his team's penalties post-1960 and I doubt it was better before then; Krejci killed 13% of his team's penalties).