Jets Top Prospect Poll: #18 Prospect

[Maukkis]

The more subtle aspects of your graph wonderfully illustrate the fact that GM's avoid using early round picks on goaltenders. I don't believe we saw a reverse of this trend since 2012 and, again, I'm happy with how the Jets are taking flyers late in the draft while focusing on skaters in the top 100 picks.

Yet 19 of the 62 current NHL goalies have been picked in the top 45. You get more quality with the picks which should get you just that. Coincidence?

Drafting goalies late is a wise move in that you're saving your early picks for less risky prospects. It does not make those goalies any better, though. For every Hellebuyck, there is a dozen busts.

 

[Jets4Life]

It may be the same regardless of position. Production drops dramatically from #1-5, then curves from #6-30, then slowly decreases from #31-160, then flat-lines after.

 

[mazmin]

Yet 19 of the 62 current NHL goalies have been picked in the top 45. You get more quality with the picks which should get you just that. Coincidence?

Drafting goalies late is a wise move in that you're saving your early picks for less risky prospects. It does not make those goalies any better, though. For every Hellebuyck, there is a dozen busts.

Completely makes sense and there's no coincidence at all. These are pro teams with a lot invested in scouting so I would hope their earlier picks pan out more often then later ones. Goalies are the hardest to predict and take the longest to develop, but at the same time teams only need a single goalie to pan out, so using multiple late rounders spread out over time is easily the best method when looking at Opportunity vs Cost. The opportunity in this case would be using higher picks for forwards and defence who are typically a bit easier to predict and can help lineups sooner.

For this reason I really like the Moe pick and hope the Jets continue to take a 'tender in the late rounds every couple drafts.

 

[Mud Turtle]

Good post and I agree. Oddly enough though, I would much rather have Pavs back as #2 opposed to Broissoit. If Helly goes down can we realistically get into playoff position with Laurent? I wonder what Pavs would have cost as a FA?

No. Nope. Not a chance. Not happening.