Jets Top Prospect Poll: #18 Prospect

Who is the Jets #18 prospect?


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Mortimer Snerd

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It's not the 'Who Gets a Cup of Coffee First" poll. It's best prospect to be an impact NHLer. Moe is arguably a better goalie than Helly was at the same age. I had him and Wong on a list of sleepers pre-draft and was gleefully shocked when I saw the Jets got both.

IMO:
#18: Moe
#19: Gawanke
#20: Chisholm

Note: I'm going to predict Wong will be top 10 prospect for the Jets in 12 months. And it won't be because others are regressing.

:laugh: I might have voted Wong this time if he hadn't been deleted.
 

Jimby

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Nov 5, 2013
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Exactly. I think people are voting for his girlfriend ;)

Edit: :laugh: Just saw the Kerdiles support. Now there is something to wonder at. He was drafted 6 years ago. Entering D+7 he has managed just 3 NHL games so far and hasn't exactly been dominating the AHL. He is < 6 months from aging out as a prospect.
 
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Mortimer Snerd

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The beauty of your post is that you can interpret it as a pun.

As for the Moe disucssion, it is incredibly rare to get anything out of a late round goalie.

Wight!

It is incredibly rare to get anything out of the late rounds, goalie or otherwise. Wait, is the 5th round late? :laugh: Enstrom, Buff and Niku say that you can get Dmen in the 7th, or even later.
 

Maukkis

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Wight!

It is incredibly rare to get anything out of the late rounds, goalie or otherwise. Wait, is the 5th round late? :laugh: Enstrom, Buff and Niku say that you can get Dmen in the 7th, or even later.
I did a bit of digging a while ago, and found out that in the drafts between 2005 and 2012, the goalie crop picked in the later rounds basically consisted of one or two backups and a horde of busts. The AVG amount of games a sixth round goalie plays is in the very low tens.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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I did a bit of digging a while ago, and found out that in the drafts between 2005 and 2012, the goalie crop picked in the later rounds basically consisted of one or two backups and a horde of busts. The AVG amount of games a sixth round goalie plays is in the very low tens.

Must be even less for forwards in those rounds. I was surprised by the number of good Dmen coming out of the 6th & 7th rounds though.

The thing is that from about the 5th round on the success rate for all picks is very low. Even the 3rd and 4th rounds have a pretty low hit rate.

But your point is that we shouldn't expect much from 6th round Moe and I agree. I don't expect much from most of the players after about the 10th on this list and I have doubts about 1 or 2 in that 10.
 

Maukkis

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Must be even less for forwards in those rounds. I was surprised by the number of good Dmen coming out of the 6th & 7th rounds though.

The thing is that from about the 5th round on the success rate for all picks is very low. Even the 3rd and 4th rounds have a pretty low hit rate.

But your point is that we shouldn't expect much from 6th round Moe and I agree. I don't expect much from most of the players after about the 10th on this list and I have doubts about 1 or 2 in that 10.
True. After all, they are supposed to be less successful than early round prospects.

I need to look at the numbers of drafted skaters at some point.
 

mazmin

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:laugh: I might have voted Wong this time if he hadn't been deleted.

Glad someone else is on the wagon! Apparently he turned some heads (and almost dislodged some) at Prospects camp. I'm interested to see if he plays in USHL or AJHL this season.
 

mazmin

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As for the Moe disucssion, it is incredibly rare to get anything out of a late round goalie.

Holtby, drafted 4th round, won the Cup last year
Rinne, 8th rounder, won the Vezina last year
Hellebuyck, 5th rounder, Vezina runner up
Lundqvist, 7th rounder, future Hall of Famer
Miller, 5th rounder, future American Hall of Famer

The following were drafted between 4th and 9th round and played 31+ games last season:

Khudobin, Anderson, Reimer, Mrazek, Johnson, Forsberg, Grubauer, Elliott, Darling, Halak, and Smith


The following were undrafted thus we can rightfully assume they could have been plucked in the 7th round:

Niemi, Condra, Talbot, Jones, O'Dell, Raanta, Bobrovsky, Hutton, and Kinkaid

So...
 
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Maukkis

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Holtby, drafted 4th round, won the Cup last year
Rinne, 8th rounder, won the Vezina last year
Hellebuyck, 5th rounder, Vezina runner up
Lundqvist, 7th rounder, future Hall of Famer
Miller, 5th rounder, future American Hall of Famer

The following were drafted between 4th and 9th round and played 31+ games last season:

Khudobin, Anderson, Reimer, Mrazek, Johnson, Forsberg, Grubauer, Elliott, Darling, Halak, and Smith


The following were undrafted thus we can rightfully assume they could have been plucked in the 7th round:

Niemi, Condra, Talbot, Jones, O'Dell, Raanta, Borovsky, Hutton, and Kinkaid

So...
Take a look at the amount of goalies drafted in the later rounds.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Take a look at the amount of goalies drafted in the later rounds.

The difficulty in assessing 18 YO goalies leads teams to leave them until later in the draft. That's why I would agree with taking a G in the later rounds every year - at least until your system can't accommodate any more. Then take a year off. Always be looking for that guy who is going to replace your current starter in ~6 years time.
 
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nobody imp0rtant

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The difficulty in assessing 18 YO goalies leads teams to leave them until later in the draft. That's why I would agree with taking a G in the later rounds every year - at least until your system can't accommodate any more. Then take a year off. Always be looking for that guy who is going to replace your current starter in ~6 years time.

If there is a standout goalie prospect, I would risk a late first rounder.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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If there is a standout goalie prospect, I would risk a late first rounder.

MAF was taken 1st OA. He was never considered quite good enough until this last year. Al Montoya was taken 6th OA and has been a career backup. Rick DiPietro was also taken 1st OA and never lived up to that billing. Looking at the number of very good goalies taken in the 5th round and later and at the number of goalies picked early who never panned out, I would be very reluctant to bet more than a 3rd on a goalie.

More recently Subban was a later 1st, Fucale was an early 2nd and Comrie was a late 2nd.

Fucale already appears to have busted. Comrie is on the edge and Subban looks like he might be ready to make it as a backup. Whether he ever becomes a starter or not is still up in the air.

Hutch was a mid 3rd. I think this year will tell whether he makes it as a backup or not. OTOH, Vasilevskiy was taken at #19. But was that a smart pick or just a blind monkey finding a banana?

It goes back to not being able to accurately assess goalies at that young age.
 

Jets4Life

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Hutch was a mid 3rd. I think this year will tell whether he makes it as a backup or not. OTOH, Vasilevskiy was taken at #19. But was that a smart pick or just a blind monkey finding a banana?.
Hutch has already made it as a backup. IN 2014-15, he stole the starting job from Pavelec for three months. He had OK backup numbers in 2015-16, and during the last half of the season he played in 2016-17. He was arguably the Jets 2nd best goalie, as Mason bombed, but an argument can be made that the reason he did not receive as much time when Mason went down was internal politics.

Either way, Hutch made it as a backup long ago. His career stats are 43-39-11, 2.65 GAA, 0.910%. These stats are superior to Pavelec, our starting goalie from 2011-16, in relatively strong for a backup goalie. Regardless, Hutch made for an excellent acquisition from Boston, as we did not really give up anything.
 
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Mortimer Snerd

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Hutch has already made it as a backup. IN 2014-15, he stole the starting job from Pavelec for three months. He had OK backup numbers in 2015-16, and during the last half of the season he played in 2016-17. He was arguably the Jets 2nd best goalie, as Mason bombed, but an argument can be made that the reason he did not receive as much time when Mason went down was internal politics.

Either way, Hutch made it as a backup long ago. His career stats are 43-39-11, 2.65 GAA, 0.910%. These stats are superior to Pavelec, our starting goalie from 2011-16, in relatively strong for a backup goalie. Regardless, Hutch made for an excellent acquisition from Boston, as we did not really give up anything.

I disagree - completely. He made it as a starter for a while. Then never quite measured up as a backup. This will be the first year when he has clearly been in a backup role.

In '16 he and Hel,e were compeging for the starting job. Helle failed a little less than Hutch did. That doesn't mean he was successful as a backup. He has always seemed a little shaky when he wasn't playing regularly.

This is a big season for him to show that he has the mental toughness for the backup role. Make or break for him. IMO
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Hutch is 28 years old. The "make or break" years are long gone.

He's had his 'make or break' shot at starting. If he doesn't make it as a backup this year, I think his NHL career will be about over. If that isn't 'make or break', I don't know what is.

Reputation seems to be important in relation to fringe players. Pavelec more or less 'made it' (.910) as a backup last year and yet he still doesn't have a contract for this year. With his baggage, he needed to be better than just good enough. I think Hutch is in a similar position this year.
 
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mazmin

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Take a look at the amount of goalies drafted in the later rounds.

Sure the odds aren't great, but this is why the Jets are doing the right thing and drafting multiple goalies late (with the exception of Comrie). It's a crapshoot but, as mentioned, history is showing a lot of goalie talent left that late.

Look at Detroit taking Swedish goalies late:

- Larsson 6th
- Brattstrom 6th
- Elliason 3rd (maybe a little high)

Knowing their Euro scouts I bet they have their replacement for Howard in one of these picks. The great thing with goalies is that you really only need one to pan out every 10 years.
 
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mazmin

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He's had his 'make or break' shot at starting. If he doesn't make it as a backup this year, I think his NHL career will be about over. If that isn't 'make or break', I don't know what is.

Reputation seems to be important in relation to fringe players. Pavelec more or less 'made it' (.910) as a backup last year and yet he still doesn't have a contract for this year. With his baggage, he needed to be better than just good enough. I think Hutch is in a similar position this year.

Good post and I agree. Oddly enough though, I would much rather have Pavs back as #2 opposed to Broissoit. If Helly goes down can we realistically get into playoff position with Laurent? I wonder what Pavs would have cost as a FA?
 

Maukkis

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Sure the odds aren't great, but this is why the Jets are doing the right thing and drafting multiple goalies late (with the exception of Comrie). It's a crapshoot but, as mentioned, history is showing a lot of goalie talent left that late.

Look at Detroit taking Swedish goalies late:

- Larsson 6th
- Brattstrom 6th
- Elliason 3rd (maybe a little high)

Knowing their Euro scouts I bet they have their replacement for Howard in one of these picks. The great thing with goalies is that you really only need one to pan out every 10 years.
upload_2018-8-5_20-26-29.png
 
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mazmin

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The more subtle aspects of your graph wonderfully illustrate the fact that GM's avoid using early round picks on goaltenders. I don't believe we saw a reverse of this trend since 2012 and, again, I'm happy with how the Jets are taking flyers late in the draft while focusing on skaters in the top 100 picks.
 

Jets4Life

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He's had his 'make or break' shot at starting. If he doesn't make it as a backup this year, I think his NHL career will be about over. If that isn't 'make or break', I don't know what is.

If a goalie goes on a hot streak, he can move from a 2nd or 3rd string goalie to starter, if the circumstance warrant it. Goaltenders can be designated as starters, and backups, but it can change drastically if Goalie B outplays Goalie A. If anything, Comrie would be a better example of a player who is going into a "make or break" season, as another mediocre year in the AHL could result in him going to Europe or the KHL.

Reputation seems to be important in relation to fringe players. Pavelec more or less 'made it' (.910) as a backup last year and yet he still doesn't have a contract for this year. With his baggage, he needed to be better than just good enough. I think Hutch is in a similar position this year.

Pavelec was never considered a "fringe player." Teams do not anoint a fringe player as the franchise #1 goalie for nearly a decade. It has nothing to do with baggage, and everything to do with the market being over-saturated with goaltenders. I'm not sure what type of baggage Pavelec has. IF you compare Hutch and Pavelec's career stats, Hutchinson's are slightly superior.
 
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