Confirmed with Link: Jets sign Marko Dano again (1y, 750K)

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
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Sorry, been away with off season vacation...

Byfuglien impact on shot quality against (Wins per 6000 mins) over past 4 seasons:
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
(fun factoids: -1.3 when isolating his time as a forward hahah and -0.2 and -0.5 for his first 2 seasons as a Jet)

Look at that changed man!!
 

Tommigun

Registered User
Jan 5, 2018
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_____________________________________________________

This really is an important issue here-Mathew Perrault -- the guy is sucking up too much Cap space for what he delivers. Firstly the guy is usually out and injured for 1/4 of every season-at least 20 games. He's not scoring much, and did zilch in the playoffs. I think Perrault is a hard working 2 way forward-- but at $ 4 mil per season, I would think Chevy is trying to deal him right now.

We have to many good young players that can replace him for 1/4 of the cost. Guys like Lemieux, Petan, Vesalanen, or Appleton are all very capable at replacing Perrault's production. Look to see Perrault traded quite soon--"it makes cents " $$$$

We could have signed Stastny if we had dealt Perreault. It makes me sad because a 2C is so much more important than a 3W.
 
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ffh

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Jul 16, 2016
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We could have signed Stastny if we had dealt Perreault. It makes me sad because a 2C is so much more important than a 3W.
button was right when stastny faced a fast team like vegas he really showed his weakness. I would take the younger faster cheaper little over him. not to mention if we did what you said we would be here with about 2.5 million in cap space and Morrissey unsigned
 
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Tommigun

Registered User
Jan 5, 2018
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button was right when stastny faced a fast team like vegas he really showed his weakness. I would take the younger faster cheaper little over him. not to mention if we did what you said we would be here with about 2.5 million in cap space and Morrissey unsigned

I’d move Myers as well :)
 
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Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,061
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We could have signed Stastny if we had dealt Perreault. It makes me sad because a 2C is so much more important than a 3W.
I'm not so sure. Chevy said that they were prepared to do surgery on their roster to afford Stastny, but it's quite possible that Stastny wanted more than 6.5m to sign with the Jets. That would have been very difficult to manage, especially since they were probably still wanting to get a long term deal with Trouba at that time.
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,061
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Sorry, been away with off season vacation...

Byfuglien impact on shot quality against (Wins per 6000 mins) over past 4 seasons:
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
(fun factoids: -1.3 when isolating his time as a forward hahah and -0.2 and -0.5 for his first 2 seasons as a Jet)

Look at that changed man!!
Now convince me that the shot quality metric is sensitive enough to puck up the rare breakaways and odd man breaks (with high goals scoring probability) that some fans, coaches and players thought they saw more of in 2016/17.
 
Jun 15, 2013
5,559
5,260
Winnipeg
Sorry, been away with off season vacation...

Byfuglien impact on shot quality against (Wins per 6000 mins) over past 4 seasons:
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
(fun factoids: -1.3 when isolating his time as a forward hahah and -0.2 and -0.5 for his first 2 seasons as a Jet)

Look at that changed man!!

Check out Buff's numbers from February 1st onward. There's a dramatic difference, so much so you wouldn't think it's the same player.

Now what happened around that time that could have affected his play?

Coincidently Trouba was injured January 29th. Wasn't this also about the time Morrisey got paired with him?
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
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Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
Now convince me that the shot quality metric is sensitive enough to puck up the rare breakaways and odd man breaks (with high goals scoring probability) that some fans, coaches and players thought they saw more of in 2016/17.

Do I think they detect everything and account for all, like "rare breakaways and oddman breaks." No.

Do I think that suggesting his newfound defensive change somehow impacts only and exclusively shot quality in a manner where we cannot measure and not in the shot quality factors we can account for and this would vastly shift his true impact is a bit of a reach? Yes.

If he's playing better defensively, in a significant manner, I'm expecting both things to change... the unmeasured and unaccounted for and the measured and accounted for.

This is especially since part of the WAR I'm using for takes rush shots into account for shot quality. Are we suggesting that Buff is somehow allowing a reduced number of breakaway/oddman rush shots than he used to and a somewhat equal amount more of the other type of rush shots he used to?

I've talked about this before. Current stats *do not* account for everything, but many of the things they do not account for are still correlated to the things that are not accounted for. For this reason, direction of change should be detected, even if it doesn't have the full measure of degree.
 
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garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
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www.hockey-graphs.com
Check out Buff's numbers from February 1st onward. There's a dramatic difference, so much so you wouldn't think it's the same player.

Now what happened around that time that could have affected his play?

Coincidently Trouba was injured January 29th. Wasn't this also about the time Morrisey got paired with him?

I'm using a WAR so it (attempts to) adjusts for everything, like deployment, linemates, etc.
 

Jet

Free Capo!
Jul 20, 2004
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What'd be interesting is if he pulls a William Karlsson this season.
I'm hoping he pulls an 'NHL Player' this season :)

Seriously, though. I always got the feeling what holds Marko Dano back is Marko Dano. When he came to the Jets I really REALLY liked his game. He was like Brandon Tanev, with skill.

Then he seemed to get comfortable and in my mind, he hasn't played at that level. Lets hope he spends this off season getting ready for the biggest year of his professional career.
 

voyageur

Hockey fanatic
Jul 10, 2011
9,467
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I'm hoping he pulls an 'NHL Player' this season :)

Seriously, though. I always got the feeling what holds Marko Dano back is Marko Dano. When he came to the Jets I really REALLY liked his game. He was like Brandon Tanev, with skill.

Then he seemed to get comfortable and in my mind, he hasn't played at that level. Lets hope he spends this off season getting ready for the biggest year of his professional career.

Problem is he does not skate like Tanev. Which is why he takes bad penalties. Whereas Tanev, who goes down a little easy I'll say, draws them.

Dano may get a chance to replace Armia. He is more of an offensive threat, and finishes checks. I can see him as a better PP option. But Roslovic I think essentially replaces Armia.

I'm looking for 5o quality games out of each of Dano, Petan and Lemieux.
 
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Jet

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Problem is he does not skate like Tanev. Which is why he takes bad penalties. Whereas Tanev, who goes down a little easy I'll say, draws them.

Dano may get a chance to replace Armia. He is more of an offensive threat, and finishes checks. I can see him as a better PP option. But Roslovic I think essentially replaces Armia.

I'm looking for 5o quality games out of each of Dano, Petan and Lemieux.

I am going to honestly try and reset my bias for Dano and Petan this season. I want to give them every chance in my mind to become full time Jets without saddling them with previous sentiment about them.

They will both need to do more of what made them exciting prospects with the big club for that to happen, though.
 

nobody imp0rtant

Registered pessimist
May 23, 2018
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I am going to honestly try and reset my bias for Dano and Petan this season. I want to give them every chance in my mind to become full time Jets without saddling them with previous sentiment about them.

They will both need to do more of what made them exciting prospects with the big club for that to happen, though.

I don't think it has been your bias that has been keeping them off the active roster till now. ;)
 

Jet

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Jul 20, 2004
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I don't think it has been your bias that has been keeping them off the active roster till now. ;)
Haha oh I know. My bias has solid base for being. I think both players have gotten what they've deserved (besides what the fancy stats group has been screaming about all this time).

The Jets have demonstrated that, if, as a young player, you do what the club NEEDS you to do, you will find a spot on the team and get more chances. The fact that Petan and Dano haven't made it says more about their performance than the team. We don't know about their practice habits and the other intangibles that make a good NHL player, either.
 
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ps241

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Haha oh I know. My bias has solid base for being. I think both players have gotten what they've deserved (besides what the fancy stats group has been screaming about all this time).

The Jets have demonstrated that, if, as a young player, you do what the club NEEDS you to do, you will find a spot on the team and get more chances. The fact that Petan and Dano haven't made it says more about their performance than the team. We don't know about their practice habits and the other intangibles that make a good NHL player, either.



On balance I agree with you neither of these guys has kicked the door down or overcome usage challenges yet.

I think luck is a factor when you are a fringe top 9 talent on a deep roster.

My prediction is that Petan will find his way this season but I am not sure about Dano. Marco has spent too much time in the press box for a young player and I am not convinced that hasn’t done damage. Hope I am wrong.

One big factor in both guys favor is they don’t have waiver eligibility. Secondly Chevy has stripped away Maurice's Old school options and he is forcing Paul to adapt to the modern game which will mean Nic or Marco will be matched with more skill.

It will be really interesting to see if the extra season in the AHL and the improved usage helps Nic?
 
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ps241

The Ballad of Ville Bobby
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Careful. The off season isn't done yet. If that Morrissey bridge gets built, we could yet cross over into Veteran Grit Territory. :laugh:

Yea I agree right now things seem too good to be true as far as building the right type of forward group.
 

googleIsMyFriend

Registered User
Dec 6, 2016
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Good deal. We need these guys after Armia/Hendricks etc left the team. And yeah, injuries happens. Big year for these guys.
 

GaryPoppins

A broken clock is right twice in a day
Sep 10, 2016
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I always heard his fitness wasn't the greatest. 15 pounds lighter will see him a couple extra steps faster and I think could equate to seeing him be more of an NHL regular.
 

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