Confirmed with Link: Jets sign Marko Dano again (1y, 750K)

GNP

Here Comes the Jets -look out hockey world !!!
Oct 11, 2016
9,142
12,770
Winnipeg
I'm hoping Petan and Dano and Vesalainen and Lemieux come to training camp loaded for bear and maybe even give the Jets the option to trade Perrault. That would free up some much needed cap space for this season and the future.
_____________________________________________________

This really is an important issue here-Mathew Perrault -- the guy is sucking up too much Cap space for what he delivers. Firstly the guy is usually out and injured for 1/4 of every season-at least 20 games. He's not scoring much, and did zilch in the playoffs. I think Perrault is a hard working 2 way forward-- but at $ 4 mil per season, I would think Chevy is trying to deal him right now.

We have to many good young players that can replace him for 1/4 of the cost. Guys like Lemieux, Petan, Vesalanen, or Appleton are all very capable at replacing Perrault's production. Look to see Perrault traded quite soon--"it makes cents " $$$$
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Tommigun

TS Quint

I can see!
Sep 8, 2012
7,792
5,065
I’m just saying what someone I know involved with the Jets said...

Regardless, my bank account has done okay in my career of predicting aspects of the future.

RelCorsi did not too bad in predicting Byfuglien’s highly positive relative goal differential too. ;)
How did RelCorsi do predicting Hutch and Burmi? ;)
 

TS Quint

I can see!
Sep 8, 2012
7,792
5,065
I wasn’t just talking about last year though. Im alluding to past 3 seasons combined; I put the numbers up I f you check out the stats thread. :)
No one needed your numbers to see that Buff had the potential to be better than he was. He had to make a fundamental change in his game to become the player he was last year. We saw it in Maurice's first year when Buff promised to FOLLOW COACHING INSTRUCTIONS in his game and become a less risky, more predictable player for his teammates to be allowed to play defense again. I don't think there were many people questioning his talent.

You would always complain about people pointing out the big mistakes in Buffs game because his overall game was good. That was true. But the big mistakes were the problem. He needed to stop trying to win the game himself especially in the 3rd/overtime when he was gassed for playing 25+ minutes. Of course fans are going to be pissed when he tries to take in the whole other team all by himself as the last man back, turn the puck over and dog it on the back check while the rest of the team has their head down trying to cover his blunder. Maurice constantly says it himself. This team can score enough without having to take hose big risks and Buff seemed to understand that last year after his "injury" and some time fishing for some Stergeon with Hendricks. It was finally some coaching getting through his thick skull that made him the player he is at 32 years old not hidden talent.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jet

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
No one needed your numbers to see that Buff had the potential to be better than he was. He had to make a fundamental change in his game to become the player he was last year. We saw it in Maurice's first year when Buff promised to FOLLOW COACHING INSTRUCTIONS in his game and become a less risky, more predictable player for his teammates to be allowed to play defense again. I don't think there were many people questioning his talent.

You would always complain about people pointing out the big mistakes in Buffs game because his overall game was good. That was true. But the big mistakes were the problem. He needed to stop trying to win the game himself especially in the 3rd/overtime when he was gassed for playing 25+ minutes. Of course fans are going to be pissed when he tries to take in the whole other team all by himself as the last man back, turn the puck over and dog it on the back check while the rest of the team has their head down trying to cover his blunder. Maurice constantly says it himself. This team can score enough without having to take hose big risks and Buff seemed to understand that last year after his "injury" and some time fishing for some Stergeon with Hendricks. It was finally some coaching getting through his thick skull that made him the player he is at 32 years old not hidden talent.

Or it could not be Buff playing different... Since he didn't see more shots against, more prime shots against, more breakaways against, more... etc. etc. relative to expectations adjusting for score and team performance...

He just had better goaltending.
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,061
33,043
Or it could not be Buff playing different... Since he didn't see more shots against, more prime shots against, more breakaways against, more... etc. etc. relative to expectations adjusting for score and team performance...

He just had better goaltending.
Or summary statistics are too insensitive to pick up the more rare and random events where Buff was caught out of position leading to high grade scoring chances, contributing to lower than expected on ice save percentages.
 
Jun 15, 2013
5,559
5,261
Winnipeg
I'm hoping Petan and Dano and Vesalainen and Lemieux come to training camp loaded for bear and maybe even give the Jets the option to trade Perreault. That would free up some much needed cap space for this season and the future.

It would have to be a hell of a camp.

Petan and Dano don't begin to approach Perreault's game in either end of the ice.

Lemieux has to get his act together. I saw enough Moose games to want him out of the organization. I wouldn't care as much if the Jets penchant for penalties wasn't what it is.

Few rookie's can enter the league & do what Perreault does. Vesalainen has enough to worry about if he's to make the team without asking him to replace Perreault.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Eyeseeing and STZD
Jun 15, 2013
5,559
5,261
Winnipeg
_____________________________________________________

This really is an important issue here-Mathew Perrault -- the guy is sucking up too much Cap space for what he delivers. Firstly the guy is usually out and injured for 1/4 of every season-at least 20 games. He's not scoring much, and did zilch in the playoffs. I think Perrault is a hard working 2 way forward-- but at $ 4 mil per season, I would think Chevy is trying to deal him right now.

We have to many good young players that can replace him for 1/4 of the cost. Guys like Lemieux, Petan, Vesalanen, or Appleton are all very capable at replacing Perrault's production. Look to see Perrault traded quite soon--"it makes cents " $$$$

Physical production is one part of the game. Some of players you listed could produce the offensive numbers Perreault does, but the end result would likely be more pucks in our own net.

Frenchie is worth every penny he gets.
 

ffh

Registered User
Jul 16, 2016
8,362
5,073
_____________________________________________________

This really is an important issue here-Mathew Perrault -- the guy is sucking up too much Cap space for what he delivers. Firstly the guy is usually out and injured for 1/4 of every season-at least 20 games. He's not scoring much, and did zilch in the playoffs. I think Perrault is a hard working 2 way forward-- but at $ 4 mil per season, I would think Chevy is trying to deal him right now.

We have to many good young players that can replace him for 1/4 of the cost. Guys like Lemieux, Petan, Vesalanen, or Appleton are all very capable at replacing Perrault's production. Look to see Perrault traded quite soon--"it makes cents " $$$$
Perreault played like 70 games last year so no he didn't miss 1/4 of season and scored 40 points playing with armia and hendricks for alot of it. You say he sucked in playoffs well ehlers sucked worse. There is 1 spot open on line if you trade him there will be 2 spots. Which 2 players do you play on 3rd line. not 1 of the players you mentioned have proven the can play in nhl and you want to run with 2 of them on line over a easy 40 point player. Ves has a good chance to be that player on 3rd line, lemieux is no more than a 4th liner Appleton isn't ready yet and petan is a Pb guy at best. They don't need the cap space till next year but when they do need it look for myers or trouba or kulikov to go before Perreault.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Arthur Fonzarelli

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
Or summary statistics are too insensitive to pick up the more rare and random events where Buff was caught out of position leading to high grade scoring chances, contributing to lower than expected on ice save percentages.
Or they are just sensitive enough because it’s not just eye test vs numbers but numbers and one persons eye test vs another’s.
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,061
33,043
Or they are just sensitive enough because it’s not just eye test vs numbers but numbers and one persons eye test vs another’s.
Interesting that the Jets coaches also appear to have the same "eye test" perspective that Buff altered his style somewhat to avoid some higher risk play. I thought it was pretty obvious that he had altered that aspect of his game, but maybe some didn't see his play that way.

Goals are rare events that become quite probable under certain game situations that are also rare (like breakaway and 2 on 1, etc.). Statistical methods based on stochastic processes don't tend to pick up those types of events very well.
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
Interesting that the Jets coaches also appear to have the same "eye test" perspective that Buff altered his style somewhat to avoid some higher risk play. I thought it was pretty obvious that he had altered that aspect of his game, but maybe some didn't see his play that way.

Goals are rare events that become quite probable under certain game situations that are also rare (like breakaway and 2 on 1, etc.). Statistical methods based on stochastic processes don't tend to pick up those types of events very well.

I also heard that coach speak praises of Thorburn and Hendricks.
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,061
33,043
I also heard that coach speak praises of Thorburn and Hendricks.
Red herring argument...

...or are you claiming that coaches are always wrong because of this example?

I know that you know that it's quite possible for Buff to have changed his style to cut down on egregious high-risk plays without this being picked up in the usual large sample shot metrics.

So maybe it does come down to dueling "eye tests"...

In that case it might not be a coincidence that some fans / posters noted that Buff's penchant for high risk plays was curtailed last season, and thereafter the coaches, Buff and some teammates noted the same observation.

Note that the following comments came after changes in Buff's game were noted on these boards. (from March 30, 2018 Byfuglien embraces change: Jets D-man made commitment to reduce risk).

“Yeah, I’m not as risky,” Byfuglien said earlier this week. “But the way we play, our team system, kind of falls into play with it. My game has been good. You always feel you can do better, but I’ve been happy with my play.”

“He’s taken more responsibility out there to play at both ends,” said Jets centre Bryan Little. “It hasn’t taken anything away from him offensively, but he’s bought into what we’re trying to do. Play defence first, shut them down and then wait for our offence to come. He’s doing a great job out there. He’s still physical and still gets in the play and is an offensive threat. But he’s done a great job of rounding out his game.”

“What he did was really a conscious effort to not feel like he had to drive the game all the time and to be more patient in his game. He’s picking the right spots,” said Maurice. “His game has evolved in step with our team. Try to play the right way. If we’re down a goal, it’s not the end of the world. We have confidence in our ability to come back because we can score goals. We’re quite a bit more patient and he’s a leader in that department.”
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
Red herring argument...

...or are you claiming that coaches are always wrong because of this example?

I know that you know that it's quite possible for Buff to have changed his style to cut down on egregious high-risk plays without this being picked up in the usual large sample shot metrics.

So maybe it does come down to dueling "eye tests"...

In that case it might not be a coincidence that some fans / posters noted that Buff's penchant for high risk plays was curtailed last season, and thereafter the coaches, Buff and some teammates noted the same observation.

Note that the following comments came after changes in Buff's game were noted on these boards. (from March 30, 2018 Byfuglien embraces change: Jets D-man made commitment to reduce risk).

Not a red herring.

I think he and you and those people are all falling for the same thing: the big mistake.

You notice more mistakes when more go in the net, so you feel their defense is bad.

You notice fewer mistakes when they do not go in the net, so you feel their defense has improved.

That, plus the whole change in environmental change with a better team.

This isn’t just a post hoc thing. 3 years ago I called this all happening: media, fan, and coaching commentary and all.
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,061
33,043
Not a red herring.

I think he and you and those people are all falling for the same thing: the big mistake.

You notice more mistakes when more go in the net, so you feel their defense is bad.

You notice fewer mistakes when they do not go in the net, so you feel their defense has improved.

That, plus the whole change in environmental change with a better team.

This isn’t just a post hoc thing. 3 years ago I called this all happening: media, fan, and coaching commentary and all.
First, I should qualify that in my case, my observations were mostly about 2016/17, when I thought his playing style was particularly risky and careless. I was less concerned and observed that less in previous years. My post history would bear that out --- I was all over him in 2016/17 and noted a change in 2017/18.

In any case, I think you make the simplifying assumption that there weren't fewer mistakes. Show the data, or it's no more objective than those who claim that mistakes are fewer.

You also haven't addressed the comments by Buff and his coaches claiming that he made specific changes to his style of play to reduce the number of mistakes, not just the consequences of mistakes.

I'm fine with differing perspectives on playing style and mistakes, etc. but I'd need more evidence that styles didn't change.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jet

TS Quint

I can see!
Sep 8, 2012
7,792
5,065
Hutch was what we said he was and that hasn't changed... nor does relCorsi have anything to do with goalies.

For Burmi, it said that he would outscore pre-KHL era, and he did. It also said he would be outscored post-KHL era, and he did.
You said Burmi was a 2/3rd line C on his second go around. Not even close.

You said based on Hutch's AHL numbers he's going to be a good NHL goaltender.
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
You said Burmi was a 2/3rd line C on his second go around. Not even close.

You said based on Hutch's AHL numbers he's going to be a good NHL goaltender.

When did I say that about his second go around?
I did say and stand by that his first go around his impact on shot differentials was about a second liner, but also the admitted his scoring was *not* at that same level.

I thought Hutch had a good shot at being equal or better than Pavelec, and a legit nhl goalie. A career 0.910 thus far would indicate that I may be correct in that...
 

STZD

Registered User
Jan 13, 2018
21
20
First, I should qualify that in my case, my observations were mostly about 2016/17, when I thought his playing style was particularly risky and careless. I was less concerned and observed that less in previous years. My post history would bear that out --- I was all over him in 2016/17 and noted a change in 2017/18.

In any case, I think you make the simplifying assumption that there weren't fewer mistakes. Show the data, or it's no more objective than those who claim that mistakes are fewer.

You also haven't addressed the comments by Buff and his coaches claiming that he made specific changes to his style of play to reduce the number of mistakes, not just the consequences of mistakes.

I'm fine with differing perspectives on playing style and mistakes, etc. but I'd need more evidence that styles didn't change.

Great arguments from both of you, qualitative vs quantitative. I think you are both right, your points aren't mutually exclusive.

As for TS Quint... you're not winning this one
 

Gm0ney

Unicorns salient
Oct 12, 2011
14,428
12,680
Winnipeg
Buff's risky play seems to be vastly reduced when he's not playing 30 minutes a night and down a couple of goals. He also looks a lot better when he's getting a few saves to cover the odd mistake.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jet and TS Quint

TS Quint

I can see!
Sep 8, 2012
7,792
5,065
Great arguments from both of you, qualitative vs quantitative. I think you are both right, your points aren't mutually exclusive.

As for TS Quint... you're not winning this one
Wheelie supported what I said and you told him he had a good argument. Ok.
 

boanst

Registered User
May 25, 2013
592
130
Buff's risky play seems to be vastly reduced when he's not playing 30 minutes a night and down a couple of goals. He also looks a lot better when he's getting a few saves to cover the odd mistake.
He also benefitted playing with Enstrom most of the year.
 

Jet

Free Capo!
Jul 20, 2004
33,043
31,512
Florida
Or it could not be Buff playing different... Since he didn't see more shots against, more prime shots against, more breakaways against, more... etc. etc. relative to expectations adjusting for score and team performance...

He just had better goaltending.
I wholly and passionately disagree with this. There is some truth to eye test and confirmation bias - I will be open minded enough to admit that, BUT - the game that Dustin Byfuglien played last year was quite different. Someone else in the thread nailed it - the team has the talent now where Buff doesnt FEEL he has to put the team on his shoulders every night and do everything to win.

If he would have figured that out before last year (or focused on his game and not trying to do everything) I think he would have been a far bigger contributor to team success.

I don't know who it was who got him to change his mindset but that man deserves a medal. I loved Buff last year.
 

Jet

Free Capo!
Jul 20, 2004
33,043
31,512
Florida
Not a red herring.

I think he and you and those people are all falling for the same thing: the big mistake.

You notice more mistakes when more go in the net, so you feel their defense is bad.

You notice fewer mistakes when they do not go in the net, so you feel their defense has improved.

That, plus the whole change in environmental change with a better team.

This isn’t just a post hoc thing. 3 years ago I called this all happening: media, fan, and coaching commentary and all.
LOL!

Big mistakes are: catastrophic for goalies, a disaster for defensemen, and less of a tragedy for forwards, usually. That's why they call them BIG

If those mistakes are caused by selfishness, or refusal to do what's right for the team, it's especially troubling. That's what I saw from Byfuglien, especially season before last. Making the same high risk low reward mistakes over and over. Pinching up at the redline when he has about a 10% chance of getting the puck, leading to a 2 on 1 the other way when we are tied in the last 5 minutes of a game. How do you explain a play like that?

I saw far fewer mistakes like that from him last year. All your stats can point to whatever they want, my eyes do not betray me, even if you have a catchphrase to explain it. :)

PS I hate to call them mistakes when they are intentional risks that don't pay off time and time again. If someone goes to the casino every weekend and blows all his money at what point does it stop being a mistake? Pretty quickly, I think.
 

nobody imp0rtant

Registered pessimist
May 23, 2018
10,812
17,977
PS I hate to call them mistakes when they are intentional risks that don't pay off time and time again. If someone goes to the casino every weekend and blows all his money at what point does it stop being a mistake? Pretty quickly, I think.

So Buff has a gambling addiction that will ultimately lead him into the poorhouse. Is that really the analogy you want to go with? ;)
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jet

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->