TSN: Jets' Petan 'on outside looking in'

[johnjm22]

Would love for the Kings to take a flier on Petan.

Kings already have Brodzinski.

 

[Maukkis]

Guys like Lazar and Jurco have fetched picks in the 50-80 region. I'd imagine that would be the cost of Petan too.

Unless there is a larger deal in the works, that is.

I can see teams like Edmonton and Vancouver being all over him. He has not been given a fair shot in Winnipeg, and by the looks of it, that won't change anytime soon.

 

[untouchable21]

Personally I’d probably be satisfied if a team in need of some immediate offense would take him on packaged with Perreault.

Something like Perreault and Petan for a 2018 2nd, 2019 2nd and 2019 3rd.

Two second rounders for Perreault seems fair.

Carolina, Detroit, Arizona, Montreal????

 

[ello]

Gotta wonder what Jets fans think about their team needs. Honestly, watching them play I think that they would make the Stanley Cup finals 9 times out of 10. There just doesn't seem to be much deficiency there and they just need to roll into next season a little older and a little wiser and they'll do great things.

Jet's fans, what do you think your weakness is? With so many valuable pieces seems like you could easily downgrade to superb instead of superhuman in some areas to make other areas superb.

Uncertainty at the second line centre position and the fact that Trouba's RFA status is still unknown for next season are two apprehensions that I personally have going into this offseason.

Barring some sort of miraculous salary maneuvering, Statsny is gone this offseason and Bryan Little's ability to jump back into that spot and produce at the clip that we're accustomed to seeing from him prior to this season is questioned by some people. Personally I think in an ideal scenario Little is a high end 3C like he was for us in these playoffs and either we trade for someone (which is very unlikely, maybe at the deadline again w/ salary retention) or Jack Roslovic keeps trending upwards and is able to solidify that position by the end of the year (much like Kyle Connor did this season). If neither Little nor Roslovic are able to be effective in a top six role (especially in the playoffs), our top six may not be as lethal as it was this year.

Also if Trouba decides that he has to spend the rest of his career in the States, that could leave a gaping hole on our right side (albeit we'd likely fetch a pretty nice return). If we manage to hang onto Trouba, from what I've read it seems like it'd be in our best interests to move Tyler Myers this offseason (correct me if I'm wrong fellow Jets fans) and despite all the heat he takes I still think he had a significant (positive) impact on our playoff run this year, and I'm not sure that losing Myers isn't an immediate downgrade.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Petan strikes me as a misfit by circumstance. Not good enough to play in the jets top 6 (which isn't a knock, the Jets are obviously loaded there) but also his skillset doesn't fit a bottom 6 role. So for the Jets...he's just kinda there.

This type of deal sounds ripe for a team like Chicago. Swoop in, get a cheap value player and watch him turn into a contributor

 

[ffh]

I would take a 7th for him but most gms will just wait for the jets not to qualify him if they have any interests. best he signs for is a 2 way contract I am guessing. he isn't really good at anything don't see a future in the nhl for him.

 

[Maukkis]

I would take a 7th for him but most gms will just wait for the jets not to qualify him if they have any interests. best he signs for is a 2 way contract I am guessing. he isn't really good at anything don't see a future in the nhl for him.

For every player, there is a hater.

Petan is not a perfect player, nor is his NHL future guaranteed. This, however, is a woefully bad evaluation.

 

[scarbrow21]

That is demonstrably not true.

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131

https://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

Sorry so the actual number is 15% chance on average that a pick after #30 becomes a NHL 4th liner OR WORSE (which means what...career AHLer/press box guy?) The article you've quoted I'm familiar with and it basically confirms what I was saying as my phraseology said NHL or Pressboxer and didn't include "worse"

From my own research with going back to just 2004, I found that there was basically a 50% chance a player selected from 25-31 would make it as an NHLer/pressbox guy and about a 5% chance the player was top 9 FWD or top 4 D. Goalies are an annomally as they're traditionally excluded from the 1st round.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Sorry so the actual number is 15% chance on average that a pick after #30 becomes a NHL 4th liner OR WORSE (which means what...career AHLer/press box guy?) The article you've quoted I'm familiar with and it basically confirms what I was saying as my phraseology said NHL or Pressboxer and didn't include "worse"

From my own research with going back to just 2004, I found that there was basically a 50% chance a player selected from 25-31 would make it as an NHLer/pressbox guy and about a 5% chance the player was top 9 FWD or top 4 D. Goalies are an annomally as they're traditionally excluded from the 1st round.

There's a massive difference between a 1 in 6.5 chance of something happening and a 1 in 50 chance, and it's misleading to talk about this like every pick after #30 has the same long odds. Your chances of coming away with a viable NHL player in the 2nd round are more than double your chances of finding that sort of guy in the later rounds, with that number increasing notably the earlier in the 2nd round you pick.

I don't know what you consider a "top 9 FWD or a top 4 D," but your 5% number is dramatically understating your actual chances of landing that sort of player in the 25-31 pick range. The actual number should be closer to 30%.

 

[scarbrow21]

There's a massive difference between a 1 in 6.5 chance of something happening and a 1 in 50 chance, and it's misleading to talk about this like every pick after #30 has the same long odds. Your chances of coming away with a viable NHL player in the 2nd round are more than double your chances of finding that sort of guy in the later rounds, with that number increasing notably the earlier in the 2nd round you pick.

I don't know what you consider a "top 9 FWD or a top 4 D," but your 5% number is dramatically understating your actual chances of landing that sort of player in the 25-31 pick range. The actual number should be closer to 30%.

Agreed that the initial number was exaggerated but the premise remains the same. Value for guys who've proven either in the AHL or NHL that they can cut it, vs the value of a draft pick 2nd round or later seems to be misunderstood as the pick is worth more these days.

The initial conversation was that Petan isn't worth a 2nd round pick when in fact he absolutely is worth that if not more. He may not have cracked an NHL team yet but that 2nd round pick even based on the models you've linked show it's a lottery ticket. Also the one thing I don't like about those generic value samples is that it doesn't take into account good scouting/drafting vs poor scouting/drafting. A lot of the "hits" in later rounds could all be from the same 5 teams bringing up the #'s to show a false narrative

 

[ManofSteel55]

A lot of teams could use Petan. It's probably going to be a game of "who offers the best pick" for him.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I see him as a throw in with Myers or Trouba ( if he doesnt sign)

 

[ffh]

A lot of teams could use Petan. It's probably going to be a game of "who offers the best pick" for him.

There isn't much of a market for undersized ahl players. Teams will wait for jets not to qualify him and sign him to a 2 way contract.

 

[Pongs21]

If he was as quick as Ehlers the kid would be a superstar. I've been waiting for him to get his chance but it doesn't seem to be coming, which is hard to argue given the forward depth we have on the roster and in the pipeline. Ideally a team flush with D prospects that could really use a guy like Petan for a D man with similar pedigree and team value (meaning more valuable to the team than the pick that would be offered) would be great. Bonus if he's on an ELC and non wavier eligible.

 

[Hunter368]

I see him as a throw in with Myers or Trouba ( if he doesnt sign)

Agreed in the sense that Petan will not be traded just for mid range pick. If traded I see him as part of a package for a upgrade some where or to get a 1st rd pick.