Pre-Game Talk: Jets @ Blues | Thurs, Oct 4th, 7PM CT | TSN | Season Opener

[Adam da bomb]

Personally I think it's less about awesome depth than unawesome coaching.

Why? Who does not deserve to be in the top 6? Connor, Schief, Wheeler, Laine, Ehlers, Little, Perrault? Bear in mind if the answer is Little than who are you going to center the other guys other than schief. I'd say Perrault, but, everyone insists he makes the other players better and wouldn't you want a better version of all of those other guys?

 

[Robinson2187]

Looks in thread.

Looks at calendar.

3 more sleeps my pretty.....................

 

[Board Bard]

Why? Who does not deserve to be in the top 6? Connor, Schief, Wheeler, Laine, Ehlers, Little, Perrault? Bear in mind if the answer is Little than who are you going to center the other guys other than schief. I'd say Perrault, but, everyone insists he makes the other players better and wouldn't you want a better version of all of those other guys?

ESW
CLL

Even that's not optimal IMO with Laine on RW (and to a lesser degree Ehlers on LW). I think opposing coaches are going to be delighted to see Ehlers blunted with Roslo and Vesalainen.

 

[Adam da bomb]

ESW
CLL

Even that's not optimal IMO with Laine on RW (and to a lesser degree Ehlers on LW). I think opposing coaches are going to be delighted to see Ehlers blunted with Roslo and Vesalainen.

So you don't see Perrault as a top 6 guy. Good to know.

 

[voyageur]

ESW
CLL

Even that's not optimal IMO with Laine on RW (and to a lesser degree Ehlers on LW). I think opposing coaches are going to be delighted to see Ehlers blunted with Roslo and Vesalainen.

St. Louis's 3rd pair is Bowmeester-Schmaltz. I think that our 3rd line could skate them into the ground. Curious if it will be Thomas-Kyrou matching up against them too. Seems like the kids would get eaten up by Lowry's line. I'll say 4-3 Jets, GWG Scheifele.

 

[garret9]

Little late, but since people talking replacement level:

 

[DuckyChuck]

Little late, but since people talking replacement level:

Dat Hainsey, hubba hubba.

 

[garret9]

Dat Hainsey, hubba hubba.

Ya that graph can be confusing as it is showing the sum value a player has contributed over their career (within the time subset I selected).

Hainsey in the past two seasons combined as a negative value, so he's given (+) value over the 2011-2018 time set but is currently a (-) value player.

It be cool to have them as lines showing their summation since the start of their career.

 

[Whileee]

ESW
CLL

Even that's not optimal IMO with Laine on RW (and to a lesser degree Ehlers on LW). I think opposing coaches are going to be delighted to see Ehlers blunted with Roslo and Vesalainen.

Opposing coaches won't be so happy when VRE eats up their bottom 6, though. Maurice is following the approach of spreading his play drivers over all 4 lines, which is an approach recommended by Garret and other analytics folks. I think Vesalainen and Roslovic are going to be very effective.

 

[ps241]

I think the Jets have downgraded somewhat from Armia and Enstrom, but upgraded substantially on Hendricks.

Also, we might expect further improvement in Connor, Morrissey, Laine, Ehlers, etc.

I don't expect 114 points again, but a solid playoff position and the potential for another deep playoff run seems feasible.

Last year before the season I predicted 103-105 points and a second place finish in our division.

I don’t see us getting 114 again and I would be satisfied with anything over 100 points which would put us in the top 3 in our division again.

I think we will have a mild regression in the save % and our PK will drop into the mid to bottom half tier again if we are a shooting gallery like last year and that combination will cost us about 12-14 points. Last year was the perfect storm and we had a goal differential of +59 which is insane and that is not repeatable IMO. That took a great save % by Helly and an insane PP/PK. I would say anything over +40 this year and we are in Great shape.

The good news is none of it matters if we make the playoffs. For me I really don’t care how it goes I just want to get back to the dance.

 

[JetsFan815]

My main concern with that 4th line is that I don't think Ehlers can carry both Roslovic and Vesalainen and we got a brief glimpse of that in preseason. I fear that that line is going to become a 10-11 minutes a night line. I would love to be proven wrong though. I don't see these projected lines lasting beyond the first few games. The way I see it, the Jets either have to split up CLT and get one of Ehlers/Laine playing with Lowry or make Perreault the 4th line jesus again as he can actually singlehandedly carry a line.

 

[Whileee]

My main concern with that 4th line is that I don't think Ehlers can carry both Roslovic and Vesalainen and we got a brief glimpse of that in preseason. I fear that that line is going to become a 10-11 minutes a night line. I would love to be proven wrong though. I don't see these projected lines lasting beyond the first few games. The way I see it, the Jets either have to split up CLT and get one of Ehlers/Laine playing with Lowry or make Perreault the 4th line jesus again as he can actually singlehandedly carry a line.

Actually, the VRE line was very effective in preseason. They might not be as good in regular season, but I saw a lot of good things from them in preseason.

 

[winnipegger]

The whole 1st 2nd 3rd 4th line model needs to be rethought. If you have real forward depth (which the Jets have), you aren't necessarily putting "worse" players down the lineup. You're putting lines together with specific tasks in mind. Lowry Copp Tanev is clearly meant to be a defensively sound line that annoys the other team with puck pursuit and physicality. But in terms of hockey skill that is cleary the "4th line". I am very intrigued to see if Ehlers Roslovic Ves can score. It is clearly designed to target soft matchups with speed and skill.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

GDT Employee reporting for duty...

Hoping the GDT sign up thread will be up and running soon. I have the St Louis game but I won't be able to do more until November at the earliest as I'm leaving town on an extended vacation.

Let's see if I can remember how to do this??

GJG

 

[Atoyot]

Actually, the VRE line was very effective in preseason. They might not be as good in regular season, but I saw a lot of good things from them in preseason.

VRE, traditional means won't even slow them down...

 

[GNP]

Worse team because the bar is high? I don't understand that. They may not duplicate last year's results in the standings, but that doesn't mean they're a worse team. Also, I think you're placing far too much importance on Armia, Mason, Hendricks and yes, even Enstrom. If you think those guys are a big loss you had better brace yourself going forward because I highly doubt we'll be able to keep all our young stars either. Eventually, team chemistry, the cap and ice-time and/or usage will force a personnel change that won't be comfortable for any of us. It's business, and a testament actually, to the Jets' draft and develop approach.

_______________________________________________________

Very good post here Robinson, and your right that "something will have to give" to keep all our young stars. Considering the tight Cap space, we're going to have future decisions on which stars we keep, and which ones we wave good bye too.

Personally I like the Pittsburgh Penguins dynamic, and I think we should somewhat model our team after them. They have chosen to stay "very strong" in scoring, not giving up any potent forwards, while having a middle of the road defense with no big stars, but guys that get the job done--stay at home defenseman, with a great Goaltender, in Murray.

If we are able to keep Laine, Scheiffle, Connor, Wheeler, Ehlers etc -- I believe it will come at the expense of depleting some of our high paid defenseman. This would mean that Buff, Trouba, Myers- would likely have to go-- at least one of them ?? Where we can not regress is in Goal -we must have a Grade A goaltender. I think we should go with "upper middle" type of defenseman down the road, like Myers, Morrow, Morrissey etc. and keep salaries in the $ 4-6 mil per year range-"no more."

This is the way I'd go if I was Chevy and the Jets--let's keep our high scoring forwards, and compromise a bit on the defenseman's salaries. You just cannot keep them all, and comply with the Cap conditions.

 

[Tommigun]

No way to know of course but ....
I think Toby had his mind made up to go home to Sweden some time back. He waited around for a while on the off chance that some team would offer him a big $$$ contract, 1 year or not. He will be getting a fair bit of money to play in Sweden plus the attraction of being at home.

"Modo’s dreary notice - the dream recruit allegedly wants to stay in the NHL”
Modos trista besked – Tobias Enström uppges vilja stanna i NHL
from 22 June.

All the Swedish articles and interviews with his agent and Modo’s management over the summer have painted a picture that he really did want to stay in the NHL, and Modo was only his backup plan. His agent has also explicitly stated this being the case.

 

[Tommigun]

So you don't see Perrault as a top 6 guy. Good to know.

He isn’t a top 6 guy on this team, other than as a spark plug.

 

[Tommigun]

My main concern with that 4th line is that I don't think Ehlers can carry both Roslovic and Vesalainen and we got a brief glimpse of that in preseason. I fear that that line is going to become a 10-11 minutes a night line. I would love to be proven wrong though. I don't see these projected lines lasting beyond the first few games. The way I see it, the Jets either have to split up CLT and get one of Ehlers/Laine playing with Lowry or make Perreault the 4th line jesus again as he can actually singlehandedly carry a line.

CSE
LLW
CLT
VRP

Pair Wheeler with Little, bump Ehlers to Wheeler’s spot, put Perreault on the junior line. Done.

 

[PhilJets]

Just win

All that matters


Added bonus

Thump them

5 to 1

 

[KingBogo]

My main concern with that 4th line is that I don't think Ehlers can carry both Roslovic and Vesalainen and we got a brief glimpse of that in preseason. I fear that that line is going to become a 10-11 minutes a night line. I would love to be proven wrong though. I don't see these projected lines lasting beyond the first few games. The way I see it, the Jets either have to split up CLT and get one of Ehlers/Laine playing with Lowry or make Perreault the 4th line jesus again as he can actually singlehandedly carry a line.

You honestly believe KV-Rosie-Ehlers can't handle 4th line matchups? Many teams employ players that skate like Hendricks on their 4th line. I go the opposite direction and see them destroying their matchups to an even greater extent then MP did last season.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Make a bet, win some vCash
Me, I want to see Buff smash!
I've been good, but I can't wait;
please Jetsmas, don't be laaaaate

 

[Jet]

Chiarot was +15, that's 15 times he was on the ice for goals for, instead of goals against, excluding PK, which means he impacted roughly 1 in 5 games favourably. That's not projected goals that's real goals, and if you played hockey, you remember if you impact a game favourably or negatively. Maurice and Huddy want their defenseman stepping up on the blue line, to sustain offensive zone pressure. Chiarot is pretty good at closing the gap. Toby would try to stick check, which is less effective, because if you miss, and you are not a great skater you give up an odd man rush.

He's pretty good on the PK, which is a necessity, unless you think it is wise to play Buff 27 minutes a game. Simple things that matter.

Morrow's skating and physicality are an upgrade on Toby. That was shown in the playoffs. He's a good fit for the team.

Sorry you can't see that.

OHHHHH BUT PLUS MINUS IS EVIL AND HAS NOOOO VALUE (fancystats crew)

+/- has it's flaws but there's a reason it was used forever and still is. If you are consistently a plus it does mean something good
Doesn't feed the narrative, though.

Also, it's hilarious to me when people squawk that poor little Petan and Poolman are somehow getting jobbed by the org and not getting chances.

The Jets have proven since day one that if you are young, and you do something with the opportunities given, you will be given more. Hell, Poolman got that last year. He sucked this preseason and will have to get back into the good books.

Petan has done jack shit to get more opportunities. Sorry, your stellar CHL career (and AHL prowess) only get you an audition. You have to perform to succeed at this level.

It's hilarious to me that a group of professional men who manage and coach these players are being chastized for picking the players who made us close to the very best team in the NHL last year (after missing the playoffs the year before)

Oy vey.

 

[Jet]

When we had Kuli - Myers as our 3rd pair we had a very good D corps. Is there another 3rd pair in the league that good?

I have my issues with both of those players and prefer them as our 3rd pair. But they are certainly not replacement level players.

Thank you, a little sanity.

Putting Chia up with Buff makes that possible and I don't mind that at all. I don't mind Morrow playing there either.

Maybe swap them in and out depending on performance.

There is nothing wrong with Sami Niku playing another year on the Moose. He's going to get his opportunity and I'd bet he plays his way onto the team much like Connor did last year.

Poolman? I'm not so convinced. I saw a guy who did a yeoman's job filling in when needed last year but might have been playing over his head. Will he ever be more than a tweener? Who knows, he still has time to improve.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

"Modo’s dreary notice - the dream recruit allegedly wants to stay in the NHL”
Modos trista besked – Tobias Enström uppges vilja stanna i NHL
from 22 June.

All the Swedish articles and interviews with his agent and Modo’s management over the summer have painted a picture that he really did want to stay in the NHL, and Modo was only his backup plan. His agent has also explicitly stated this being the case.

I'm aware of that - but only for an amount of $$$ that he was never offered.