Salary Cap: Jets 2019: roster and cap situation

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,061
33,043
While we bask in the pleasant glow of a top team heading to the playoffs, I have been thinking ahead to how the Jets will sustain their success in the longer term. In that regard, the medium to longer term future will have to unfold for the 2019 season in relation to the core of their roster and the salary cap. That's because that's when Laine's extension will kick in, and most of their other young core players will need to be extended.

So, instead of reading the newspaper on this "crisp" Saturday morning, I did a bit of quick scenario building using CapFriendly's GM tool, focusing on the roster and cap and contract situation for the 2019 season. This thread is your chance to comment, and to propose your scenarios and solutions to create a long-term contender in Winnipeg.

First, my three main assumptions:

1) Salary cap rises to $83M for 2019 (might be a bit conservative).
2) Trouba is willing to sign a long-term deal.
3) Jets are happy with most of their current young core of players.

With that in mind, it became clear that the Jets are not going to be able to retain all of their core vets. Also, their plethora of young players in the system make it impossible to retain all of them on the roster.

Decision 1: Right defense (trade Myers)

If Trouba is signed to a long-term deal, then the Jets will have a very difficult time keeping both Buff and Myers. I decided (somewhat reluctantly), that Myers needed to be traded (as early as this off-season).

Decision 2: Wingers (trade Perreault)

I really like Perreault, but really can't see how the Jets can keep him while re-signing the young players and keeping a solid D and G situation. I reluctantly decided to trade Perreault (probably after the 2018/19 season).

Decision 3: Young depth forwards

From a roster perspective, the Jets will likely need to jettison at least one and perhaps two of their young forward prospects, because of roster considerations. I decided to trade Dano (2018) and keep Petan.

In terms of key contracts, here is what I decided:

Laine - $9.5M x 8 years (he gets the franchise player extension. I think he might sign for a bit less)
Wheeler - $6.5M x 6 years (probably a bit too rich or long, but the Jets want him to keep driving the bus)
Trouba - $6.25M x 5 years (might be a bit low on the AAV, but he'll like the shorter term)
Hellebuyck - $6.0M x 8 years (he gets the franchise goalie contract - might be a bit rich)
Morrissey - $5.25M x 6 years (similar to Rielly)
Lowry - $3.5M x 5 years (tried to balance AAV and term)
Connor - $3.25M x 2 years (maybe a bit rich for a bridge, but if he scores 35 or so next year...)
Armia - $2.5M x 4 years (might be on the low side, so could adjust the term a bit)
Copp - $2.25M x 4 years (see Armia)
Poolman - $1.75M x 2 years (Jets might decide to go higher and longer with Poolman)

Key trades:

Myers (2018/19): 2019 1st and young D or good prospect D.
Perreault (2019 off-season): 2nd in 2019 and 3rd in 2020.
Dano (2018): 2019 3rd

Below is the roster, with a total cap hit of $82.96M.

Fire away!

Jets 2019.png
 

DRW204

Registered User
Dec 26, 2010
22,117
26,722
If Armia costs 2.5M, I trade him. I think Morrissey and Helle are a tad high. I think Helle starts will start with a 5 (most good goalies are within 5-6M i believe there is only 8 that are 6M or higher NHL Rankings. Maybe Andersen as the comparable? ) and Morrissey will be high 4's (think Brett Pesce is a comparable, adjust for % of cap hit). The rest seems fair. Although it would be nice to give Wheeler lower term, the more years given will be able to amortize his TCV for longer thus keeping the AAV low.
 
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DashingDane

Paul Maurice <3
Dec 16, 2014
3,359
5,102
Los Angeles
I like your proposal! I’m not sure I would give Helle that much before we see if can keep it up next season. He is easily the MVP this season and if he keeps that up I’d almost give him whatever he wants...
 

scelaton

Registered User
Jul 5, 2012
3,606
5,389
Thanks for taking the time to do this. It's a topic I have an interest in but I'm going to wait until the post-season is over until I comment.

What happens if we win the SC and Trouba* or Helle* wins the Conn Smythe?
What if we lose in the first round and Helle is an .895
What if Trouba goes down with injury, Myers* is spectacular and we go far in the playoffs?
What if Chiarot* has a great playoff and Kulikov, while healthy enough, never plays another game this season
What if Wheeler* goes down with injury and Armia* replaces him successfully on RW?

There are too many unknowns and conflicts of interest at this point.
I'll be back in the off-season!

* = eligible for new contract negotiations after this post-season
 
Jun 15, 2013
5,559
5,260
Winnipeg
Thanks for taking the time to do this. It's a topic I have an interest in but I'm going to wait until the post-season is over until I comment.

What happens if we win the SC and Trouba* or Helle* wins the Conn Smythe?
What if we lose in the first round and Helle is an .895
What if Trouba goes down with injury, Myers* is spectacular and we go far in the playoffs?
What if Chiarot* has a great playoff and Kulikov, while healthy enough, never plays another game this season
What if Wheeler* goes down with injury and Armia* replaces him successfully on RW?

There are too many unknowns and conflicts of interest at this point.
I'll be back in the off-season!

* = eligible for new contract negotiations after this post-season

That's a lot of hypotheticals and in all likelihood none of them come true. With a 10 word span you go Helle being a Conn Smythe winner to a .895 goalie...nice to see you taking such a strong position!:sarcasm:

It's been said "If you argue the devils' advocate eventually people won't bring their ideas to you."

There will certainly be injuries, there likely already are lingering ones that won't be public until the off-season. Hopefully each player suffering one can play through it. Regardless, our GM is aware of them all. How much of a factor would any of your examples play in resigning your examples?

To begin with, you don't have Trouba asterisked. He's an RFA & should be part of your argument, not Myers who is NOT eligible for a new contract in the off-season.

I doubt Chiarot is capable enough to have a playoff performance that get him much more than a league minimum raise. Kulikov won't remain on the Jets past his contract expiration. Existing players in the system will replace him & his salary at a cheaper cost.

An injury to Wheeler won't affect the team resigning him. Maurice thinks he'll play until he's 40. Our GM likely agrees. Armia will never be a 1st line RW. He's got his strength's but Wheeler level vision isn't one of them. He's another RFA that will get a slight salary bump.
 

Maukkis

EZ4ENCE
Mar 16, 2016
10,538
7,218
This is very close to the prediction I put together a while ago, and I generally agree with it; the numbers are quite close to mine, and the guys who I have staying are too. Some observations I made:

- Hellebuyck - or any other goalie, for that matter - for eight years seems too risky. He is young and all that, but in general, I am against long-term deals for goalies. Then again, five or six would be more than fine for me.
- If Myers is traded by 7/2019, he should be traded this offseason. It makes more sense asset management wise, and also saves us from having to pay someone for taking on Mason's deal. Poolman would also get some minutes starting from next year without Myers blocking the way.
- Not re-signing Stastny seems to be the logical option, unless he is ready to give us a hefty discount.
- Keeping both Armia and Copp might be problematic, but I guess it is doable. However, they should also be the first ones to go, in case we are running short on cap room.
- Wheeler will be an issue. I don't think he will be let go very easily, but then again, giving him a boatload of cash at 33 years of age is asking for trouble. That might just be Chevy's biggest challenge; he is undeniably our best player, but the risk is immense.
 

lanky

Feeling Spicy
Jun 23, 2007
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Winnipeg
Lowry @ $3.5 in the 4C role is too much. Trade him. Could get a couple high draft picks from a team that would play him higher in their lineup. Copp can play 4C well.
 

DRW204

Registered User
Dec 26, 2010
22,117
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Lars Eller just got 3.5Mx5 how does he compare with Lowry?
 

KingBogo

Admitted Homer
Nov 29, 2011
31,529
38,962
Winnipeg
Not a bad guess Whileee but I think you have Helly too high. Chevy has been burnt once on a long term contract for a goalie. Helly is vastly superior to Pavs, but I think we see a 3-4 year $4 + for Helly. We will give you the net and pay you well and if you prove you can top starter and then we will pay you like one. Also think we have someone closer to the $1 M range in place of Armia and Petan is long gone. Likely we will need to move Little once Connor needs to be paid.
 

DudeWhereIsMakar

Bergevin sent me an offer sheet
Apr 25, 2014
15,597
6,619
Winnipeg
I likely think that Petan is the one who is going to be traded. Trouba is another I believe gets traded

I think most of the players on our current team will get traded but likely overpayment coming our way in draft picks. But truthfully, I think Cheveldayoff will do his best to work things out, but it'll be hard.

I think we keep Perreault for as long as possible and expose him in the expansion draft. He's valuable cap-wise.
 

raideralex99

Whiteout Is Coming.
Dec 18, 2015
4,750
9,014
West Coast
The first playoff game has not been played and you want to wheel and deal. The players that can bring it to the next level in the playoffs are the ones you keep.
How many of the Jet players have playoff experience?
I think Myers is forever grateful what the Jets did for him last year that he would give them a hometown discount ... when you can get a good D man for a discount you keep him.
But since Chevy is the GM and makes those decisions I would rather ask him instead of the HFers.:D
 

meedle

Registered User
May 17, 2011
4,985
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Winnipeg
Wheeler had 90 points this year. He is going to be worth in the 9-11mil range.
Trouba will get more
Morrissey needs to sign longer
Armia will be traded, too many young guys coming to pay someone 2.5 mil.
Lowry will be traded imo. Again too much unless you planning on moving one of our wingers.
Hellebuyck no way you pay a goalie that much and that term after 1 good year.
Copp gets less.
 

Adam da bomb

Registered User
May 1, 2016
12,611
9,479
Wheeler had 90 points this year. He is going to be worth in the 9-11mil range.
Trouba will get more
Morrissey needs to sign longer
Armia will be traded, too many young guys coming to pay someone 2.5 mil.
Lowry will be traded imo. Again too much unless you planning on moving one of our wingers.
Hellebuyck no way you pay a goalie that much and that term after 1 good year.
Copp gets less.
I would have a hard time with the Jets paying Wheeler 9-11 mil. The only player who I can see in that range is Laine. I'd move Perrault before moving Lowry.
 

Gabe Kupari

Registered User
Jul 11, 2013
15,269
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Winter is Coming
9 to 11 million for a guy in his mid 30s? LOL. Trade him if he wants close to that

Jets love Lowry. If people think they trade a guy in his early 20s they are on crack.. Its called draft and develop. Not draft develop then trade. Every plus 27 Vet goes b4 anyone under 25 does.
 
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lanky

Feeling Spicy
Jun 23, 2007
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Lowry is a 3/4 C. I think he's become a core players whose value will be higher after the playoffs.

I agree. After the playoffs will be a great time to trade him.

Any forward paid more than 2 mil should be able to justify their pay with points/60. Competent pk'ers can be found for less.
 

Adam da bomb

Registered User
May 1, 2016
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I agree. After the playoffs will be a great time to trade him.

Any forward paid more than 2 mil should be able to justify their pay with points/60. Competent pk'ers can be found for less.
Lowry provides a lot more than that. Most of those forwards who have more points owe a lot of that to Lowry's line taking the tough matchups so players like Wheeler, Perrault and Laine can feast on a weaker line.
 

lanky

Feeling Spicy
Jun 23, 2007
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Winnipeg
Lowry provides a lot more than that. Most of those forwards who have more points owe a lot of that to Lowry's line taking the tough matchups so players like Wheeler, Perrault and Laine can feast on a weaker line.

I'm not sure to what extent that is true.

I have nothing against Lowry. I like seeing his crushing hits. But if there's going to be casualties from the cap, he's a logical player to trade. Not just because he might earn ~3.5 but also because we could use the futures that he would return.
 

Guffman

Registered User
Apr 7, 2016
6,357
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No way do you give Hellebuyck an 8-year contract. That is incredibly risky based on one year of exceptional play.

Lowry, we keep (I agree). Armia and Copp are luxuries if they’re going to command over $2M/year as fourth line players.

They might bridge Morrissey and retain Myers (and maybe extend Myers). After Morrisey’s bridge expires, they trade away Buff and use those funds to extend Morrissey longer term.

Wheeler is likely going to get more (7.5M).
 

Adam da bomb

Registered User
May 1, 2016
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No way do you give Hellebuyck an 8-year contract. That is incredibly risky based on one year of exceptional play.

Lowry, we keep (I agree). Armia and Copp are luxuries if they’re going to command over $2M/year as fourth line players.

They might bridge Morrissey and retain Myers (and maybe extend Myers). After Morrisey’s bridge expires, they trade away Buff and use those funds to extend Morrissey longer term.

Wheeler is likely going to get more (7.5M).
At the mid point of the season I was upset at the thought of Wheeler getting 7.5-8, now I will be happy if he goes under 9.
 

KingBogo

Admitted Homer
Nov 29, 2011
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Winnipeg
I'm not sure to what extent that is true.

I have nothing against Lowry. I like seeing his crushing hits. But if there's going to be casualties from the cap, he's a logical player to trade. Not just because he might earn ~3.5 but also because we could use the futures that he would return.
It's true. Lowry gets very hard match ups against either the other team's 1st or 2nd line, with Scheifele's line getting the other top line. After any game all you need to do is look who Lowry had ice time against and it is always one of the other team's top 2 centers. Usually pushed hard into the D zone as well.
 

Guffman

Registered User
Apr 7, 2016
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At the mid point of the season I was upset at the thought of Wheeler getting 7.5-8, now I will be happy if he goes under 9.

I don’t think the Jets would be paying 9M+ for a contract that starts when Wheeler is 33 years old.

Wheeler has the opportunity to be a long-term captain of a team that will be elite for the next few years. I guess he can give that up and be an Andrew Ladd and get more compensation with some dud team.
 

KingBogo

Admitted Homer
Nov 29, 2011
31,529
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Winnipeg
At the mid point of the season I was upset at the thought of Wheeler getting 7.5-8, now I will be happy if he goes under 9.
As much as I am a Wheeler fan there is no way a team with as much young talent as the Jets can pay a 33 y/o $9 M. You will be doing it at the expense of young rising players like Connor and Roslovic. Laine will be up in that range which means you'd have close to $20 M in your 2 top RW. No team does that. Teams can't even afford that for their top 2 centers or their top 2 defenseman.
 

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