Player Discussion Jesse Puljujärvi 4th Overall 2016 Draft. Part V: Called Up 11/10/17

[Smartguy]

One "underwhelming" season doesn't equal to bust. For all we know we could be tearing it up with McDavid next season. A player rarely is ready for the league at D+1 so lets not pass judgement too early. I remember well when Laine tore his knee, couldn't skate the next season and people were like, doh, wasted talent. Now look at where he is. These are just kids, some take less time and some more. Jesse will adapt and find his game. With these tools it'd be crazy if he didn't.

How was his season underwhelming? He put up solid numbers as one of the youngest players in the AHL! Multiple first overall picks have vastly hurt people's perspective on prospect development, put into perpspective like other number 4 OV picks, if he was in CHL he would have tore that league apart

 

[ohheyhemsky]

How was his season underwhelming? He put up solid numbers as one of the youngest players in the AHL! Multiple first overall picks have vastly hurt people's perspective on prospect development, put into perpspective like other number 4 OV picks, if he was in CHL he would have tore that league apart

It's not the 4 first OA picks, it's the rookie climate right now. Three of the top four in last years draft played ranging from amazing to very well in their rookie season, and tagging on rookies like Werenski, Marner, Nylander, Provorov, excelling as well the "bar" has been raised.

The fact that Pulju didn't do the same in the NHL raises the Paajarvi and Yakupov hairs on people's necks. I don't blame them for reacting this way after our decade of dumps, but it's not a realistic way at looking at JP either. Some posts need to take a breath, take a step back and just wait and see what he does next year instead of pigeonholing him as a bust or a player who will never live up to his expectations.

I have an expectation of 35 points for him next season, which is honest production. If he's below, I'll be disappointed but as long as he progresses we should all be happy.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I like Puljujarvi... I think in time he'll be a good player.

In his limited NHL time, I don't think he looked bad at all. Numbers back that up as well.

He was on the ice for 11 GF and just 5 GA so he was a net positive put there. He was put out with decent teammates (50.87 GF%) and faced slightly weak comp (49.51 GF%) and had a strong ozone push in the minutes he played (36% ozone vs 24%dzone) but that's reasonably common with rookies learning to play in the NHL.

He certainly didn't light it up offensively which I'm sure some were hoping for but he wasn't a negative out there either.

He has good tools and we'll see what happens going forward. People somewhat unfairly compare him to Laine which is unfortunate because Laine is simply a far different player and was obviously much better suited to jump into the NHL and thrive.


Truthfully I wasn't big on Puljujarvi in the draft... I wanted the Oilers to draft McAvoy who I thought was the clear #3 pick behind Matthews/Laine... I actually didn't even have Puljularvi in my top 5.

Saying that... I think he becomes a good NHL player in time and he simply may take more time and development than some players do... which is completely to be expected with the vast majority of young players.

People were really spoiled by seeing Matthews/Laine jump in and basically crush it offensively... but that's certainly the exception and not the norm.

 

[J4M13M]

4th OA are very hit and miss. As JP goes he really "shouldn't" be a bust. There is no real weakness to his game that can't be improved enough to make him a solid NHLer.

I think its a matter of when not if JP will be a productive NHLer.

No need to rush him either.

I looked back at the last 10 drafts prior to Jesse in 2016, and the only #4 that was objectively a bust was Thomas Hickey. Griffin Reinhart is probably a bust so I'll count him too, but every other #4 is a solid contributing NHL player. In fact, the only one other than those 2 that's not an undisputed first-liner or first-pair D is Sam Bennett. So 8/10 are "not a bust" and 7/10 definitely worked out.

I certainly agree with the rest of your post, and I just did the exercise more out of curiosity than to debate anything. Jesse should be a solid NHL player, and probably will be as early as this season if history teaches us anything.

EDIT: I went back to 2000, and in those previous years, #4 appears to be a bit of a minefield, so I guess the original statement is fair....some of those picks are definitely misses.

 

[GameChanger]

I have an expectation of 35 points for him next season, which is honest production. If he's below, I'll be disappointed but as long as he progresses we should all be happy.

It really depends so much on the ice time, PP time and who he's playing with. This year Jesse played about 315 minutes, while e.g. Drai played 1548 minutes. With a simple calculation the similar minutes would've given Jesse about 40 points, and that's practically without PP time and in general with lesser line mates.

I'm not expecting Jesse to get as many minutes as Drai, Matthews or Laine (though they are not amongst the highest in NHL either) and I emphasize I'm not saying Jesse is at the same level at the moment, but if Jesse plays a full season and gets some PP time 40 points would be a disappointment to me. Then again, I do like that the expectations are pretty modest now. It's always nicer to surprise positively than to disappoint.

 

[GameChanger]

I looked back at the last 10 drafts prior to Jesse in 2016, and the only #4 that was objectively a bust was Thomas Hickey.

I don't think #4 really describes the potential Jesse has. He'd probably been #1 in many years, but last year was an exceptionally tough one, and the drop from #3 was strange to say the least. We'll see what he ends up becoming, all I'm saying here is that at the time of the draft he was in general considered a higher prospect than #4 would make one assume. I personally see no reason to lower the expectations this soon.

 

[ToeMcDrag83]

There is no rush with JP.

We have the pieces to shelter him and build his confidence up.

Development has been such a weak point of this organization, it's time we put our youngsters in position to succeed through proper growth.

I know we're in a hurry to see the finished product. But he needs fermenting if we want to see the highest quality of him, his full potential reached.

 

[SullivanT]

It's not the 4 first OA picks, it's the rookie climate right now. Three of the top four in last years draft played ranging from amazing to very well in their rookie season, and tagging on rookies like Werenski, Marner, Nylander, Provorov, excelling as well the "bar" has been raised.

The fact that Pulju didn't do the same in the NHL raises the Paajarvi and Yakupov hairs on people's necks. I don't blame them for reacting this way after our decade of dumps, but it's not a realistic way at looking at JP either. Some posts need to take a breath, take a step back and just wait and see what he does next year instead of pigeonholing him as a bust or a player who will never live up to his expectations.

I have an expectation of 35 points for him next season, which is honest production. If he's below, I'll be disappointed but as long as he progresses we should all be happy.

And which one of the mentioned 4th overall players you listed was 18 and the youngest player in the NHL playing directly out of the draft?

If you are gonna compare him to them it will have to be this coming season.

 

[J4M13M]

I don't think #4 really describes the potential Jesse has. He'd probably been #1 in many years, but last year was an exceptionally tough one, and the drop from #3 was strange to say the least. We'll see what he ends up becoming, all I'm saying here is that at the time of the draft he was in general considered a higher prospect than #4 would make one assume. I personally see no reason to lower the expectations this soon.

I don't think the original poster was implying he might be a bust, and neither am I.

I just looked up previous #4 picks, because some of them (Seth Jones?) were definitely in the first overall conversation in the past. On the whole, the last decade has been good to team picking at #4, but it's not a perfect record.

It was just an exercise on a slow night at work.

 

[BB88]

It's not the 4 first OA picks, it's the rookie climate right now. Three of the top four in last years draft played ranging from amazing to very well in their rookie season, and tagging on rookies like Werenski, Marner, Nylander, Provorov, excelling as well the "bar" has been raised.

The fact that Pulju didn't do the same in the NHL raises the Paajarvi and Yakupov hairs on people's necks. I don't blame them for reacting this way after our decade of dumps, but it's not a realistic way at looking at JP either. Some posts need to take a breath, take a step back and just wait and see what he does next year instead of pigeonholing him as a bust or a player who will never live up to his expectations.

I have an expectation of 35 points for him next season, which is honest production. If he's below, I'll be disappointed but as long as he progresses we should all be happy.

Those guys just were on their +2 or +3 seasons, which can make a huge difference.
Laine broke all kinds of records last year for European kid, something I don't think is going to get matched very soon.

The biggest weakness when I watched Pulju last year was he had that awkward look/coordination problems, which is something that should go away when he adds muscle/grows naturally.

 

[Mr Positive]

There is no rush with JP.

We have the pieces to shelter him and build his confidence up.

Development has been such a weak point of this organization, it's time we put our youngsters in position to succeed through proper growth.

I know we're in a hurry to see the finished product. But he needs fermenting if we want to see the highest quality of him, his full potential reached.

With a talent like JP's the best place for development is not clear. The cop out answer is that all players should take the "Detroit model" and stew in the minors and AHL, but imo that only applies to 2nd tier prospect talent. JP is 1st tier, and for them the NHL might be the best spot to develop.

Ultimately, JP has to be better than other players in camp in order to make the team. If he crosses that bar, then he should be on the team. If not, then it's the AHL for him.

I don't think our past failures apply to this situation at all either. Our team today has a strong identity and a lot of depth. It's not the toxic losing environment of the past. And recently, the exact parallel to JP's situation is Draisaitl, and if Drai is a model then the next step is the NHL, and JP is a roughly equal prospect to what Drai was at the same stage.

He can be sheltered on the NHL team as well. You can give him good linemates, like how Drai had Hall, and you can limit his Dzone time. Also, like last season you can scratch him every other game. That way he can stay fresh, still participate in NHL practices, and learn from playing with and against quality players.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

And which one of the mentioned 4th overall players you listed was 18 and the youngest player in the NHL playing directly out of the draft?

If you are gonna compare him to them it will have to be this coming season.

You understand that I'm defending JP right?

 

[ohheyhemsky]

Those guys just were on their +2 or +3 seasons, which can make a huge difference.
Laine broke all kinds of records last year for European kid, something I don't think is going to get matched very soon.

The biggest weakness when I watched Pulju last year was he had that awkward look/coordination problems, which is something that should go away when he adds muscle/grows naturally.

Agreed, but all I'm saying is you're seeing people freak out because of the rookie climate and holding JP up to that standard.

 

[SullivanT]

You understand that I'm defending JP right?

Miss understanding then my heads been all over the place today. Those labeling him as a bust already have just made me kind of defensive.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

Miss understanding then my heads been all over the place today. Those labeling him as a bust already have just made me kind of defensive.

That's where I'm at too. It's not fair to label him a bust at all, but I see why people are doing it - I blame it on the climate.

 

[nexttothemoon]

JP isn't close to a bust... that can't even be determined one way or another yet.

IMO he has to put in at least 3 years here in the NHL/AHL before we can even start to assess what he is... great/good/average etc.

Look at Bennett in Calgary. He's draft +4 coming up this season and they really still don't know what they have with him. Some would say he's trending towards "busty" material but that's a little harsh as well. He'll likely take at least another year to develop into what he will eventually become.

Same goes with JP... they need to give him at least another couple years just as they've done with Drai. Now Drai is an $8 million dollar player (likely).... but he didn't look like that in his 1st season. (McDavid obviously helped that out a wee bit).


Point being... JP has just turned 19 and most players are still in junior or playing overseas at that age. Where is Dubois by the way? Didn't play a single game in the NHL and by most accounts took a step back in the Q this season. He's certainly not a bust either but development isn't linear and these 18/19 years olds (unless they are truly elite) are very prone to very up and down seasons.

 

[GameChanger]

I agree with the writers above. As I wrote, a simple calculation with Drai's (or Matthews' or Laine's) minutes would've made Jesse a 40-point player. With no PP time and mainly average line mates that's not so bad for a young guy coming into the season from a knee injury and no English skills.

Of course it's impossible to predict what the numbers would've been with a full season, but for the limited ice time his numbers really weren't too bad. Actually at some point only McDavid was ahead of him at points/60 so I'm expecting him to be a top6 player sometime soon enough.

 

[Risingwind]

Point being... JP has just turned 19 and most players are still in junior or playing overseas at that age. Where is Dubois by the way? Didn't play a single game in the NHL and by most accounts took a step back in the Q this season. He's certainly not a bust either but development isn't linear and these 18/19 years olds (unless they are truly elite) are very prone to very up and down seasons.

That's correct. I kind of hate to say this (well I don't actually, but that's beside the point) but there's been a lot of bust-projection on Pulju because the first two picks from his draft made an immediate impact, however who will guarantee that it wasn't a fairy tale season that will prove to be annoyingly difficult to reproduce? One Jordan Eberle comes to mind as an example. Everyone is human so there will be up years and there will be down years. The constant rushing from one hyperpole to the opposite is a little stressful.

I can have this stance because I'm a Pulju fanboy.

 

[kelsier]

How was his season underwhelming? He put up solid numbers as one of the youngest players in the AHL! Multiple first overall picks have vastly hurt people's perspective on prospect development, put into perpspective like other number 4 OV picks, if he was in CHL he would have tore that league apart

I think a lot of people thought he was a bit underwhelming considering the fact that handful of other players drafted the same year actually made it the their respective rosters. There was a time Puljujärvi was mentioned in the same breath with Laine and if we look at these two today and compare their last seasons one could point out "here's south and there's north". Jesse in away had unfair expectations set upon him. I wasn't insinuating he was bad, but rather he could have been better. Also at the same time I was stating it's far too early to be using the phrase bust in the same sentence as Puljujärvi.

 

[Loffer]

Chill, guys. I met the Pool Party Dude the other day on a tennis court and he looked fit and cheerful and actually played pretty good tennis with her girlfriend - much better tennis than Patrick Laine has in his sleeves, for that matter. So, the kid will be strong and motivated next season; a very good tennis player for a hockey dude he is and seems to have an excellent mental game and mindset. I encouraged him while passing by after my training session saying "Jesse Pool it is ain't it?" - Yeah... (smiling)-. Then some babbling back and forth - and finally "Okay, you will be fine next season playing with McDavid. Just show them, kid." - Heh, quite right, thanks. And that big original smile of the kid. You cannot but like this dude.

Jesse ain't bad, not bad at all. . .

 

[Aceboogie]

Got a great feeling JP is going to add a ton of swagger to this team. Basically a guy that can overwhelm D/ A player that can get an insane shot off from next to no space and have other teams kicking themselves

Loving having players like Hall/JP in the line up because opposition really have no plan for them. With guys like Eberle/JG/etc sure they are super skilled but you can kind of game plan them and predict what theyll do. With a dynamic player they could bull rush you, they could pull up for a cross ice pass, or they could wire it from top circle, noone knows

Id put JP with Jokinen to start the year in some comfortable minutes and tell the kid to just go out and do what hes good at. Be mindful of the puck and dont make glaring giveaways, but dont be scared to try some moves. I wouldnt put him with McDavid for atleast a year because when your with McDavid as a young guy you play way more scared and hesitant

Id then join the 2 next year and have a super line. Have McDavid as the supreme puck manager and JP as the bull rushing winger with a great shot

 

[ThePhoenixx]

What's better for him?

First line minutes and top power play time in the AHL or third line minutes in the NHL?

 

[Aceboogie]

What's better for him?

First line minutes and top power play time in the AHL or third line minutes in the NHL?

For me nhl AINEC. Just has to have a good linemate like JJ

 

[BB88]

What's better for him?

First line minutes and top power play time in the AHL or third line minutes in the NHL?

Top9 minutes with 2nd pp unit spot in the NHL.

Jokinen can't mentor him if he's int the AHL.

 

[Aceboogie]

Top9 minutes with 2nd pp unit spot in the NHL.

Jokinen can't mentor him if he's int the AHL.

Toss him on unit 1. With McDavid/LD/Klefbom on that PP hed have little to no responsiblity other than cramming in one timers and cleaning up garbage goals. Letestu potted 10 goals last year while almost entirely being a outlet player with no obligations with the puck. Low stress and high reward. Itd put a ton of confidence in JP while also giving him the ability to play with McDavid and expose him to that