Player Discussion Jesperi Kotkaniemi- So You See That's Where The Trouble Began,That Smile,That Damned Smile Edition

[Andrei79]

Improving on 20%+ goalscoring is a ridiculous idea, yeah. Regression was inevitable.

Indeed, it's a ridiculous idea and you're the only one suggesting it.

Is your idea of improving offense only based on improving shooting percentages ?

How about from the increase of his shot totals while maintaining a 10-12% accuracy like Jeff Carter did. Or increasing his ice time from 14 minutes and actually getting 1st wave PP time. Staal managed to get 36 points from even strength and shorthanded scenarios. And, obviously, simply getting better from getting older and with more experience.

So, going back to the end of 2007, with 6'3" 2nd overall Staal being one of the youngest rookies ever playing limited minutes in a defensive role, you think expectations at the time were that he'd regress. Ok then.

 

[japhi]

On topic, he is having a killer year. 18 and on pace for 30 plus playing easy minutes. Future number 1/2 C. Will be a killer in his 20s

 

[Andrei79]

Offensive production is the only thing that differenciates elite from average players.

Well, that's convenient for you.

In the Timmins thread, offensive production doesn't really say everything about the quality of a player.

In this thread, Gainey, a first ballot Hall of Famer, 4 time Selke winner (they had to invent a trophy for him), Conn Smythe winner, wasn't elite. Because offense.

Even if, by your words, he revolutionized the game.

Do you understand that by definition, if a whole sport adapts to your game and copies it, it precisely means that you have a significantly greater impact than your peers ?

 

[Tyson]

Revolutionized hockey but not elite, gotcha, makes sense. I think this is the point I bow out of the conversation. We clearly have a different understanding on how hockey works.

A famous USSR Head coach I think his name was Victor Tichonov once said that Bob Gainey was the most technically sound player in the world. This quote was from the mid 70’s.

 

[Andrei79]

Revolutionized hockey but not elite, gotcha, makes sense. I think this is the point I bow out of the conversation. We clearly have a different understanding on how hockey works.

All he did was change the game.

No biggie.

They invented a trophy to underline how much impact he had on the game. But, not elite. Just your average sport-transforming player.

 

[japhi]

Exactly, crazy how new fans can not appreciate the d game. Bergeron is modern example. First ballot hof likely. Weber is similar, GOAT defensive game. Rarely gets scored on but if only we had a guy that could put up 20 more points and get scored on 25 times we would be set.

 

[japhi]

All he did was change the game.

No biggie.

They invented a trophy to underline how much impact he had on the game. But, not elite. Just your average sport-transforming player.

I know right? If goals against mattered that Gainey guy could be a star, maybe even make the HOF. Will never be elite though.

 

[CauZuki]

His playmaking is elite reminds me of a taller less speedy Saku. Love his game , he will mature like fine wine. Now he just needs to master this move and we will be in business:

 

[Mrb1p]

Well considering he's on the 3rd line with PP time having 4th line numbers isn't exactly a good thing. But yes I expect both to improve, just not enough to improve his goal scoring by quadruple his scoring which is what he'd need to do to hit 30 goals.

League average for S% is 9%, so even 12% is high. There were a 140 player who managed 12% who played at least 41 games, and only 27 scored 30 or more and about half of them were shoot first players who had more goals then assists. You either have to be very lucky or very very good to do what you are expecting of him.

I'm not sure whose a good comparable, but for example Kopitar as a rookie had 2.68 shots per game and his career average is 2.49. Saku Koivu went from 1.66 as a rookie to 1.8 as a career average. I think it's pretty rare for players to have shot increases unless they really weren't ready for the NHL as rookies which doesn't seem to be the case for Kotkaniemi.

League average takes in the Agostinos and the Alzner of this world... Doesn't work that way.

I'm expecting Kotkaniemi to be very good.

You're also not taking into account that Kotkaniemi turned 18 in july, Kopitars rookie season will be Kotkaniemis second season, third for Saku (He'll also be 20 to Sakus 21.)

 

[Mrb1p]

Indeed, it's a ridiculous idea and you're the only one suggesting it.

Is your idea of improving offense only based on improving shooting percentages ?

How about from the increase of his shot totals while maintaining a 10-12% accuracy like Jeff Carter did. Or increasing his ice time from 14 minutes and actually getting 1st wave PP time. Staal managed to get 36 points from even strength and shorthanded scenarios. And, obviously, simply getting better from getting older and with more experience.

So, going back to the end of 2007, with 6'3" 2nd overall Staal being one of the youngest rookies ever playing limited minutes in a defensive role, you think expectations at the time were that he'd regress. Ok then.

In goal scoring ? I'd hope so, if not some people weren't following.

But anyway, I'm not sure what you're trying to do.

 

[Mrb1p]

All he did was change the game.

No biggie.

They invented a trophy to underline how much impact he had on the game. But, not elite. Just your average sport-transforming player.

He was elite, defensively.

You believe Gainey was a first liner ? Did he play on his teams first line ?

 

[Mrb1p]

Exactly, crazy how new fans can not appreciate the d game. Bergeron is modern example. First ballot hof likely. Weber is similar, GOAT defensive game. Rarely gets scored on but if only we had a guy that could put up 20 more points and get scored on 25 times we would be set.

"New fans".

The problem here is that the players you just mentioned are also elite offensively. Weber is the best PP shooter in the league on the point and Bergeron is a 65 points+ player, so yeah, first ballot HOFers.

See what I'm saying ? No first line players only have defense, but every first line player has offense, unless you can find me one, and no, Gainey wasn't a first liner, not once in his career.

 

[BaseballCoach]

"New fans".

The problem here is that the players you just mentioned are also elite offensively. Weber is the best PP shooter in the league on the point and Bergeron is a 65 points+ player, so yeah, first ballot HOFers.

See what I'm saying ? No first line players only have defense, but every first line player has offense, unless you can find me one, and no, Gainey wasn't a first liner, not once in his career.

Gainey in his prime was not considered a first liner, but he usually played the most minutes per game on LW, more than Steve Shutt, so it's arguable.

But....he is just an exception that proves the rule. The Gaineys of this world are super rare. Also he was not that bad offensively. Prime Gainey might have scored 30+ on a wing with Lemaire and Lafleur.

 

[Kriss E]

On topic, he is having a killer year. 18 and on pace for 30 plus playing easy minutes. Future number 1/2 C. Will be a killer in his 20s

I wouldn't say he's having a killer year. I think he's been okay-fine. When I think of a rookie having a killer year, I'm looking at him winning the Calder. Kotka is not even in the discussion.

 

[Kriss E]

"New fans".

The problem here is that the players you just mentioned are also elite offensively. Weber is the best PP shooter in the league on the point and Bergeron is a 65 points+ player, so yeah, first ballot HOFers.

See what I'm saying ? No first line players only have defense, but every first line player has offense, unless you can find me one, and no, Gainey wasn't a first liner, not once in his career.

Yes, but no other player was as sound and ahead defensively as Gainey. You said it I believe. He was an exception.
He was such an elite player in his own specialty that the offense part could be ignored.

 

[ahmedou]

So you see “that's where the trouble began that smile that damned smile” citation never get expired...

 

[Sorinth]

League average takes in the Agostinos and the Alzner of this world... Doesn't work that way.

I'm expecting Kotkaniemi to be very good.

You're also not taking into account that Kotkaniemi turned 18 in july, Kopitars rookie season will be Kotkaniemis second season, third for Saku (He'll also be 20 to Sakus 21.)

Galchenyuk 's shots per game went up less then 0.5 shots per game from his rookie year if you prefer to compare him to another 18 year old 3rd overall pick.

But I'm basically just picking guys at random, do you have any examples of players who tripled or quadruples his shots per game numbers from his rookie year? Because my guess is it's pretty rare and will be a combination of being a late bloomer and having terrible rookie years.

Kotkaniemi's a pass first guy and that's unlikely to change, so I would expect his S% to go up, but I doubt his shots per game go up a huge amount. At best maybe an extra shot per game, but probably not even that.

 

[Habs Icing]

Bob Gainey was not a first liner or an elite player

The Russian coaching staff in 1976 declared him the most complete hockey player. He wasn't a first liner but he was an elite player. Did you watch him play at all?

 

[Tyson]

The Russian coaching staff in 1976 declared him the complete hockey player. He wasn't a first liner but he was an elite player. Did you watch him play at all?

He obviously never saw Gainey play

 

[BaseballCoach]

The Russian coaching staff in 1976 declared him the most complete hockey player. He wasn't a first liner but he was an elite player. Did you watch him play at all?

No other defensive specialist ever won the Conn Smythe. Not Claude Provost, not Don Marcotte, not Doug Jarvis, not Guy Carbonneau.

Gainey was the elite of the elite.

 

[japhi]

"New fans".

The problem here is that the players you just mentioned are also elite offensively. Weber is the best PP shooter in the league on the point and Bergeron is a 65 points+ player, so yeah, first ballot HOFers.

See what I'm saying ? No first line players only have defense, but every first line player has offense, unless you can find me one, and no, Gainey wasn't a first liner, not once in his career.

Lets be clear , you said this:

“Offensive production is the only thing that differenciates elite from average players.”

Which is clearly wrong. There are many elite players that have middling offensive stats and there are tons of players that have good stats that middling.

Bottom line is you win by preventing more goals then the other guys. Phil Housely is in the HOF, i’d take Carbonneau. Denis Maruk had 30 a bunch of times and scored 60 and I think 50 as well. Esa Tikkanen brutalized teams and won cups.

Elite defensively IS elite overall. Boring as shit but elite

 

[Le compétiteur]

The kid has lots of potential but it's pretty clear to see he is not ready.His skating,his slender build need work.He is being pushed around .Opposing player could lay him out anytime if they wanted to.He is very shaky on his skates.They have tried him on every line and the power play and he is a liability.I wish they would send him to Laval or wherever they can before he gets seriously injured or they ruin the kid like they have done with others.

He can't be sent to Laval, it's in his contract. For this season and next season it's NHL or Liiga, no AHL possible for him before season 2020-2021.

Meanwhile his team in Finland are dead last and have told Habs to not send him back because the team is dead last and the only thing he could learn this year in Finland is how to deal with the fact that you lose almost every game.

So unless the plan is to make him a good loser that accept losing with dignity the only option for him is NHL

 

[WhiskeySeven*]

I don't think Gainey should've retired his own number. I never saw him play but I saw him GM... woof. At least Bergevin knows he was a (long-tenured) scrub.

 

[Habs Icing]

I don't think Gainey should've retired his own number. I never saw him play but I saw him GM... woof. At least Bergevin knows he was a (long-tenured) scrub.

I have been hard on Gainey as a GM.

But I remember until his daughter died he was performing at a high level. Once he lost his daughter he fell apart and who can blame him.

 

[Kraken Jokes]

I want to address something that came up in the GDT last night.

Some posters, at the first sign of adversity from the youngest player in the league, saw fit to state that we should've picked Tkachuk or Zadina instead of Kotkaniemi because we have plenty of centre depth.

They cited Domi, Danault, Suzuki, Poehling as who we would have without KK. Someone even said "we don't need a #1C".

Context:
- We haven't had a true #1C since Koivu and even that is debatable.
- We didn't have Suzuki at the time of the draft. He hasn't played a game in the NHL. Many believe he'll be a winger at the NHL level.
- Poehling hasn't played a game in the NHL.
- We had just traded for Domi. Not many expected him to even play C let alone be as successful as he has been.
- Centres have more value on the market than wingers. Ideally you're not trading them away but if you have to, you get a better return. Can't have too many Cs.

Even with the C depth we have now, I wouldn't vote against the Habs continuing to draft high end centres.

Kotkaniemi was the right pick.