Player Discussion Jesperi Kotkaniemi - Part 18

Discussion in 'Montreal Canadiens' started by montreal, Jun 10, 2021.

  1. dackelljuneaubulis02 Registered User

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    watch it with the video below it, genius.

    It's not a pipe dream. Kid can pass.

    I remember having the same wonderful arguments about Patches.
     
  2. azcanuck Registered User

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    Worst take ever, part 2.
     
  3. Miller Time Registered User

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    and all human beings go through physical maturation, an aspect that seems lost on you
     
  4. Miller Time Registered User

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    :soap:

    having fun lol
     
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  5. Miller Time Registered User

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    some just don't understand the basics of athletic development... think what they see in any given moment is the be all end all. that kind of myopia is not uncommon amongst those with limited or poorly framed experience.

    the presence of the Crosby or Mackinnon's of the world make them forget that the majority of elite team sport athletes don't really hit their prime until their mid-20's, as the curves for physical maturation and focused development work reach their combined apex...

    it's also why some teams are better than others at player development... even in the pro ranks, there is a strong tendency towards recency bias and being blinded by short term results from players. Look accross every sport, and there's a reason every league has a few teams that have much strong track records of "finding hidden gems" from late picks/unheralded prospects... no suprise that they also tend to do a better job of finding reclamation project vets who end up making "surprise" career revitalizations.

    Let's hope that there is enough internal wisdom to recognize the tremendous growth potential still present in JKO and that we have the patience to both see and support it reaching it's peak... wherever that ends up being.
     
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  6. azcanuck Registered User

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    It's not lost on me. I've said from the beginning KK will get stronger on the ice and that will help. But, while he may improve his skating, it will never be at CAufield , suzuki level balance. Those guys have great edge work (watch Crosby for the ultimate example).
    Le_Sean is right about how KK needs to play and how it is different from the other guys he mentions.
     
  7. Mrb1p PRICERSTOPDAPUCK

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    I can answer this later, but I dont know what you want to know exactly?

    No, he was ranked 4th overall behind Tkachuk.

    No, did any player actually do well down the stretch? Anderson, Danault, Gally, Petry, Byron, Lekhonen, Armia, Tatar, Toffoli... they all sucked. Suzuki had the most points of all and he had like 13 points.
     
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  8. montreal Go Habs Go

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    100% yes, guys like Jagr, Crosby were so hard to knock off the puck because they had the lower body strength, great power. Tall lanky guys struggle with that which is why it often takes them longer to get there.
     
  9. Miller Time Registered User

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    i remember running into Heatley at a pool in the 2000's... while he was still in his productive peak. relatively smallish guy, considering he played a pretty aggressive game at the time.

    the other thing i noticed... how little refined muscular development there was... i wondered to myself how well he'd do in his 30's, as you could see he didn't have the physique of someone who had put in a ton of work to that effect. We saw how his career flammed out.

    I don't think people realize just how many elite athletes don't actually put in the kind of physical work required for maximizing both their potential and their longevity.... and likewise, how many pros are there with a much smaller degree of "talent" but with impeccable work ethic.

    the threshold for physical ability to be in the game is much lower than many appreciate. Getting there is one thing (and often the most talented get there without having needed to put in the same work as their less talented peers)... staying there, and squeezing out every ounce of potential is something else all together.

    JKO has already shown he has the mindset/work ethic piece down. He's got a high degree of skill, and, as you point out, has dealt with the relative challenge of a late teen massive growth spurt (which throws off a lot). When the physical coordination catches up again, layering that onto his skill, vision and work ethic, we'll see a big improvement curve in impact, i'll be quite surprised if we see anything less than that.
     
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  10. Miller Time Registered User

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    1- that's very different than suggesting that JKO won't improve his edgework at all.
    2- from a "needs to" pov, i'd say it's actually more accurate to say Caufield needs to play the elusive game because he would be completely ineffective/neutralized were he to try to play a heavily physical game. Conversely, JKO could right now be playing more of a post-concussion Lats or Benny Pouliot game, avoiding the physical play, and still be able to contribute given his vision, hockey iq and puck skills. His size allows him to add a physical element to his game that smaller players don't have as an option.

    there's a logical gap in your take... if his current issues are balance, skating, strength et., and he's doing what he is doing despite those physical attributes being "weak", then doesn't stand to reason that his productivity and impact, at 20, is thus reliant on things like hockey iq and hockey skills (stickhandling, passing, shooting et.)?

    if that is the case... and you acknowledge "from the beginning" that he will get stronger and that it will "help", then wouldn't that suggest exactly what I and others have been saying all along... that when the physical maturation catches up to the hockey skills, that will have a significant impact on his effectiveness?

    young players that do what he can do, at his age, do so typically either because they have well above-average physical tools/maturation (like a B.Tkachuk), or well above average hockey skills (Dahlin, Hughes)... and in rare cases, off the charts in one/both (Crosby/McDavid)... JKO falls into the hockey skills driven impact thus far, imo, but has the frame and work ethic to see the physical tools land in the above average space once he matures.

    If a person looks at him and thinks he's weak in both those areas, how the heck do they think he's able to do what he does???
     
  11. CHfan1 Registered User

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    It’s crazy how much criticism the youngest centre and 3rd youngest skater in the NHL playoffs is getting in this thread.

    He’s came up big for the Habs in the playoffs (where games are more important than in the regular season), tied for the Habs goal lead, scoring 4 big goals.

    He’s scored the first goal in a game twice, forced a turnover and scored the 3rd goal in an elimination game, and scored, arguably, the Habs biggest goal of the season when he buried the OT winner in game 6 when the Habs were being badly outplayed.

    But apparently it seems he’s almost peaked as a player and will never get stronger. This fan base has zero patience some times. He’s going to get better, shown he wants to learn and put in the work. It’s just going to take time, yeah it might be 3-4 years, some time with players that how long it takes, some times even longer.
     
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  12. Ozymandias The writing is on the wall

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    You're guessing, right?
     
  13. 26Mats #FireBergevin

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    quoting Ferraro
     
  14. azcanuck Registered User

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    you overstate his skills by a mile. Not elite in any area. Will get better when he gets stronger simply because it will buy him time and space, which is everything in the NHL. I think he has nice vision but slow reaction time and doesnt process what's going on fast enough. That will never change.
    so in the end you'll see a slightly better version of what you see now with KK. Maybe slightly better than slightly :laugh:, but not much more.
    What's really funny on here is reading how his production is everyone's fault. Bad linemates, coaching and management (some truth to management rushing him for sure).
     
  15. 26Mats #FireBergevin

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    That "hard work and dedication can overcome " genetic differences with regard to speed.
     
  16. Ozymandias The writing is on the wall

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    Ray Ferraro is an expert in genetics?

    Genes and innate talent have always been excuses in sports when people can't explain skills. It's a gap filler.

    Seriously, physical development is about doing the right things to get the right results and very few know the right things to do. It also takes a willingness and drive to correct, practice and master. If Point became better when he was almost a full grown adult, it's because he had a willingness and accurate help to correct and practice the right things.
     
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  17. Miller Time Registered User

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    well, i disagree, again, with your take.

    There's a reason there are so few 18, 19, 20 year olds that play regular NHL minutes.

    and, not to get lost in semantics, but i did state "above average". Is that what you consider "elite", just so that we are talking the same thing?
    Assuming we are... The "not elite in any area" you see doesn't quite match-up with the reality of what he's done, and is doing, in the most difficult hockey league on the planet. Your definition of "elite" is curious, to say the least.

    His production isn't anyone's "fault", and, ALL PLAYER's production is impacted by factors like linemates, usage, roster strength/opposition emphasis, coaching approach et.
    In JKO's case, there are some very clear, obvious, and definitive ways that his production has been negatively impacted by deliberate desisions made by the team. There is no valid argument to the contrary... unless of course you think there are no external factors that affect player production, and even you wouldn't try to claim that ( i hope!)

    So again, we're left at the same simple reality. If his production is considered within the available context, it is pretty silly to suggest that there is little or no room for growth in his game and his offensive output. Simply increasing his minutes would almost surely raise his point/ppg totals to the low threshold you and other detractors have suggested is his ceiling...
    add to that consistent linemates
    add to that playing in position consistently
    add to that playing with the direction to prioritize offensive output
    add to that physical maturation
    add to that playing with players that have offensive iq's and skills similar or above his own

    add all those things together, and a player who at 20 has already put up .36-.40 career ppg pace is surely capable of at least doubling that productivity rate, if not greater.
     
  18. le_sean Registered User

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    He won’t improve his agility. That just doesn’t happen at this point in the career with those long legs with zero acceleration. That’s why he needs to get stronger and learn to bulldoze and outmuscle, because the rest (agility, foot speed) isn’t happening.
     
  19. Canadienna Sitting in a temperate rainforest somewhere...

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    There's nothing wrong with JK's legs :laugh:

    He's playing great hockey right now, getting invaluable playoff experience and learning how to win hockey games.
     
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  20. Miller Time Registered User

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    there are some genetic markers that do contribute to sport success... David Epstein's book, sport gene, discusses it in good detail.

    but, the nature of the sport plays a huge role in how that genetic advantage impacts player selection... contact team sports have so many interconnected variables at play, that they are probably the least subject to that (outside of the height gene in basketball... # of 6'10+ NBAers vs the general population is a huge outlyer, for obvious reasons).

    one of the more interesting ones has to do with visual acuity and baseball... there's some gene tied to heightened visual acuity that is present in miniscule % in the general pop, but at exponentially large numbers in baseball... the correlation seems to be that it helps with batting at an early age (can see cues of the ball when it is pitched sooner/better than without it, that leads to better swing adjustments, leads to better batting success, leads to being selected to better teams (and more external motivation from parents/teammates/coaches) all of which contributes to earlier and better environment for "choosing" to put in the work to get better at baseball... all that to say that possessing the gene doesn't make you a better baseball player, it just sets in motion a bunch of interrelated factors that increases the selection odds at play to drive the work required to get to the big leagues.

    i don't recall him referencing anything about hockey... aside from the social markers like being from a wealthier community, a hockey family and/or a community where hockey is the be all end all sport, i don't know that there are any genetic markers that positively correlate to ending up in professional hockey (there would be negative correlations like extreme height or shortness or other factors that would work against being able to play) aside from general athleticism and perhaps earlier physical maturation, both of which would be strongly tied to the social markers (Canadians excel at hockey not because we're wired for it, but because from a young age, the best athletes get the most social reward from excelling there as opposed to in other disciplines... plus the idols, plus the community emphasis, plus the abundance of access to rinks et.).

    all of this is why the draft seems like such a crapshoot... and some scouts/scouting departments do better at hitting on later gems... dissecting the noise and immediacy of performance results that are more driven by external factors than internal ones... an inexact science but certainly not without some applicable frameworks to improve success.
     
  21. Miller Time Registered User

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    completely false. agility most certainly can continue to improve at his age, and not just refinement, but substantially.

    ~24 is when neuroplasticity really changes gear and the process of neural adaptability largely "shuts down" in terms of making significant changes easily. I'd point you to the work of Dr. Andrew Hubberman, he's got a relatively new podcast that covers these types of topics in both great detail and very accessibly.

    beyond what JKO can do to improve all sorts of aspects of his athletic capacity over the next 2-3 years, there's also the improvements that will come from the increased coordination he'll experience as he grows into his body. His late teen growth spurt and lanky but large frame have all the hallmarks of it.
     
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  22. le_sean Registered User

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    I mean improve it to the point of it being a plus and being able to dodge hits like Suzuki and Caufield that we mentioned before. He’s also too big to weave in and out of multiple attackers, his stick handling not good enough. To me his only option is to become much more physical and stronger. He’ll have to win puck and board battles rather than avoid them like the other two.
     
  23. dackelljuneaubulis02 Registered User

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    As much as it's very arguable that we should've went full rebuild in the last few years, I don't think I could handle the hot takes. So glad we didn't for that reason alone.
     
  24. Ozmodiar Registered User

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    Such a greasy move. Must drive defensemen crazy!
    LOL
     
  25. Miller Time Registered User

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    well, yeah, i wouldn't expect a 6'2 guy to have, or need, the agility of our 5'7 sparkplug... Suzuki? i wouldn't be surprised if the two end up very close in many physical categories when they're both hitting their physical peaks.

    His stickhandling not good enough? Wow, i don't see what you see. JKO's ability to weave through traffic in transition is already elite... it's why he's been one of our best forwards in transition for large chunks of the year and in these playoffs. and he's a year younger... let's revisit in a year to see how that take holds up, shall we?

    and i encourage you to watch him more closely next round. He already does win a high volume of puck and board battles... Dave Poulin did an excellent segment on him in the first round, showing just that... again, an area that his actual current ability seems to be greater than what you perceive it to be... though we do agree that as he physically matures and adds more strength/coordination/agility, he will only continue to improve in those areas (hence the very high ceiling ;)
     
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