Player Discussion Jeff Skinner - Part II

[yahhockey]

I think your goal to salary ratio is incorrect. Not that I know what the correct ratio is however a 27 year old pending UFA coming off of a 35-40 goal season is going to get more than 7.5. I may have made many incorrect statements over the years but that is one that you can take to the bank. The JVR comparison is understandable but they aren't exactly the same even if they may be more alike than different. Disagreeing over what he should be paid is different than the what he will be paid argument.

 

[Abraham de Lacy]

Peresonally (yes, Lee Mavers reference again) I think Jeff Skinner is an emerald stone of the highest quality. Clearly the best skater on the team (jesus!) and a finisher, a pure goal scorer.

He is going to be expensive and worth it. Letting him go would be a monumental mistake. Pony up the mony.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Skinner has THREE more full nhl seasons after this one before he turns 30. Any massive drop off would be coming in years 6-7-8. If people are seriously thinking any star FA is taking 4 or 5 years at age 27 is simply not happening.

8 x 8 is fair for both sides. Skinner should want to win for once and not many teams who would sign him have a star like Eichel at center.

If Skinner is a 40 goal guy the first 5 years of the deal then do it. 18 mil for a superstar ppg+ center and a speedy, tenacious elite 5v5 goal scorer is not overpayment. If we can get out of the Okposo deal this summer we could really build a serious contender.

 

[Gabrielor]

Keeping Skinner should be a forgone conclusion. It’s all about negotiating that cap hit down to build a champion.

 

[Zman5778]

Duchene's deal might wind up helping Buffalo slightly.

Skinner's camp can argue it all they want, but no matter how one slices it, Skinner isn't worth as much as Duchene. Duchene out ppg's him AND plays center to top it off.

 

[Jeremy2020]

I hate paying guys that blow up in a contract year, but he seems to pair well with Eichel

 

[OldSchool RinkRat]

Skinner has THREE more full nhl seasons after this one before he turns 30. Any massive drop off would be coming in years 6-7-8. If people are seriously thinking any star FA is taking 4 or 5 years at age 27 is simply not happening.

8 x 8 is fair for both sides. Skinner should want to win for once and not many teams who would sign him have a star like Eichel at center.

If Skinner is a 40 goal guy the first 5 years of the deal then do it. 18 mil for a superstar ppg+ center and a speedy, tenacious elite 5v5 goal scorer is not overpayment. If we can get out of the Okposo deal this summer we could really build a serious contender.

I agree that 8 x 8 could be the best outcome for both. Now with the recent "talk" of Skinner wanting 9.5 (Which I highly doubt, unless they are using it as a start off) I have yet to see anyone bringing up the one thing that Buffalo has to Offer that most teams don't (the 8th year excluded) is the ability to offer a majority of his Salary in Signing Bonuses (Lockout proof) similar to Tavares and ROR as an incentive to keep the Cap-hit down. Now some people might say, well anyone can offer him that, which is true but it doesn't mean that they will, especially with the chance there is a Lock-out soon. T-Pegs has shown that he is not afraid of offering players a large amount of their salary in Signing Bonuses, when the person is important enough to the team, which I think Skinner is. It's just a thought that Could have a potential impact on what Skinner signs for and where.

 

[Samsonite23]

8x8.2 is my very early guess. Get it done.

 

[Jim Bob]

Skinner has THREE more full nhl seasons after this one before he turns 30. Any massive drop off would be coming in years 6-7-8. If people are seriously thinking any star FA is taking 4 or 5 years at age 27 is simply not happening.

8 x 8 is fair for both sides. Skinner should want to win for once and not many teams who would sign him have a star like Eichel at center.

If Skinner is a 40 goal guy the first 5 years of the deal then do it. 18 mil for a superstar ppg+ center and a speedy, tenacious elite 5v5 goal scorer is not overpayment. If we can get out of the Okposo deal this summer we could really build a serious contender.

I'd bet money that he scores 150 or fewer goals over the first 5 years of his next contract vs 200+ over that same time frame.

He won't sustain his 20%+ shooting percentage over the long haul.

 

[Jim Bob]

I agree that 8 x 8 could be the best outcome for both. Now with the recent "talk" of Skinner wanting 9.5 (Which I highly doubt, unless they are using it as a start off) I have yet to see anyone bringing up the one thing that Buffalo has to Offer that most teams don't (the 8th year excluded) is the ability to offer a majority of his Salary in Signing Bonuses (Lockout proof) similar to Tavares and ROR as an incentive to keep the Cap-hit down. Now some people might say, well anyone can offer him that, which is true but it doesn't mean that they will, especially with the chance there is a Lock-out soon. T-Pegs has shown that he is not afraid of offering players a large amount of their salary in Signing Bonuses, when the person is important enough to the team, which I think Skinner is. It's just a thought that Could have a potential impact on what Skinner signs for and where.

Skinner likely wants the max. I mean, who doesn't want to win the lottery?

 

[ISeeStars]

I don't think 8 years for 9 mil is a terrible starting price for Skinner's team based on today's production. I truly believe he can get 9 on the open market based on his current projections.

I think he is worth 8 for 8, any more than that is rough but I feel like the only way to keep him is 8.5-9. Hopefully our team's potential and the fact he is close to home will help lower the asking price.

Would be sweet to lock up an Eichel-Skinner duo for the next several years but I also can't fathom having 2 players locked up for almost 20 mil with Mittelstadt/Dahlin looking for bucks in 2-3 years. Would have to think Reinhart would be the odd man out and somehow unload Ristolainen/Okposo's contracts.

 

[brian_griffin]

He’s a 30 goal scorer at historical shooting %, 40 goals with Eichel. If his performance holds up. Don’t buy high. Wait. Wait. Then wait some more

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

I'd bet money that he scores 150 or fewer goals over the first 5 years of his next contract vs 200+ over that same time frame.

He won't sustain his 20%+ shooting percentage over the long haul.

I'd take that bet. Skinner will easily average 30g a season the next 5 years with the chemistry he has with Eichel. Nothing to do with his shooting %. With an elite center finally setting him up I'd say 30g a season is a very low conservative estimate. Thinking he only TOPS out at 30g a season is just puzzling. He averaged damn near 30g a season playing with no help in Carolina.

 

[Buffaloed]

If you want to estimate Skinner's value try looking at comparable players and what percentage of the salary cap their cap hit was at the time they signed. The salary cap for 2018-19 is 79.5 million.

Eg Jakob Voracek Jakub Voracek
signed 2016-17 , $8.25 million cap hit of $73 million salary cap = 11.3% cap space

11.3% of the projected cap means approx $9 million average salary for Skinner.

When Eichel signed the cap was $75 million. His $10 million average salary represented 13.33% cap space.

 

[Jim Bob]

I'd take that bet. Skinner will easily average 30g a season the next 5 years with the chemistry he has with Eichel. Nothing to do with his shooting %. With an elite center finally setting him up I'd say 30g a season is a very low conservative estimate. Thinking he only TOPS out at 30g a season is just puzzling. He averaged damn near 30g a season playing with no help in Carolina.

His goal scoring rate absolutely has a lot to do with his outlier shooting% so far this season.

Players that have career years in a contract year almost never carry that production into the future. Even players that get to ride shotgun with a guy like Eichel.

And I was talking 150 or less versus your prediction of 200+.

 

[Fezzy126]

He’s a 30 goal scorer at historical shooting %, 40 goals with Eichel. If his performance holds up. Don’t buy high. Wait. Wait. Then wait some more

I don't think anyone is advocating signing him based on his current rates, after all his current shooting percentage and goal projections have him scoring 50+. Over the last 5 years there have been 3 - 50 goal scorers, and they've all been named Ovie. The going rate for that level of production is >16% of the cap, which would be north of $13M AAV. I don't think anyone is going there...

But we had some of the same discussions about Kane last year, his cost doesn't rise and fall on a week to week basis like the stock market, the league knows what he is. Whether he gets 8, 9, 10, or 11% of the cap, that'll obviously play out. I think the larger debate that seems to be occurring here is whether some posters want such a large percentage of the cap tied up in this type of player. I'm personally ok with one dimensional scoring wingers, but I get the hesitation from others.

 

[joshjull]

He’s a 30 goal scorer at historical shooting %, 40 goals with Eichel. If his performance holds up.Don’t buy high. Wait. Wait. Then wait some more

Maybe its the phrasing but I’m not understanding the bolded.

If Skinner’s current pace playing with Eichel holds up it would get him to 50+ goals not 40. Or are you saying thats where you expect him to end up with (40 goals playing with Jack) when his shooting% drops off?

 

[brian_griffin]

Maybe its the phrasing but I’m not understanding the bolded.

If Skinner’s current pace playing with Eichel holds up it would get him to 50+ goals not 40. Or are you saying thats where you expect him to end up with (40 goals playing with Jack) when his shooting% drops off?

The latter (second sentence).

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[1972]

Jack is one of the best playmaking centres in the game, he’s never had a pure goal scorer to play with. So, I think it’s no surprise Skinner is lighting the lamp so much.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

Sign Skinner 8x8

He is the kind of player you give money to

 

[Der Jaeger]

Sign Skinner 8x8

He is the kind of player you give money to

As opposed to the player you don't give money to?

 

[Mattilaus]

https://www.tsn.ca/sabres-skinner-expected-to-talk-contract-next-month-1.1214585

 

[Snargitz]

8 x 8 just pay him

 

[CatsforReinhart]

As opposed to the player you don't give money to?

If you post this it probably means you don't understand the difference in who to give money to.