Player Discussion Jeff Skinner - Part II

[debaser66]

The Pegula's are narcissists.

Altruism is certainly not a favourable trait to get rich

 

[Zman5778]

I will laugh if this is another case of Botts setting timeline/deadline biting him in the ass which will impact the value of Skinner at the TDL. He’s going to once again come to the TDL and settle for a trade value much lower than he probably is worth because he waited too long, which will surely include a conditional 1st round pick as the main piece.

Reports are that the two camps are meeting this week. There really wasn't any reason to begin negotiations sooner, as if Skinner is actually signing with us - it wouldn't be until the TDL anyways (8th year). And there isn't really that much to the negotiations. He's getting between 7 and 9. So probably somewhere right around 8x8, give or take.

And his value at the TDL isn't much different than it is right now -- he's not likely to re-up with any team he's traded to, so a conditional 1st is probably all he's worth -- which is FAR more than we gave up for him.

 

[sabremike]

Reports are that the two camps are meeting this week. There really wasn't any reason to begin negotiations sooner, as if Skinner is actually signing with us - it wouldn't be until the TDL anyways (8th year). And there isn't really that much to the negotiations. He's getting between 7 and 9. So probably somewhere right around 8x8, give or take.

And his value at the TDL isn't much different than it is right now -- he's not likely to re-up with any team he's traded to, so a conditional 1st is probably all he's worth -- which is FAR more than we gave up for him.

The last part isn't true. The first we get for him will almost surely be from a team in the 20's, and probably the high 20's. With the comical freefall taking place right now with no end in sight we probably end up bottom 10. So our huge bounty would be moving up 12-15 spots in a draft where everything past the top 12 is second round talent. If we can't sign him the season goes from a crushing failure right to a total catastrophe, that can't be sugar coated.

 

[Zman5778]

So our huge bounty would be moving up 12-15 spots in a draft where everything past the top 12 is second round talent.

Huh? An extra 1st is an extra 1st. Adding to our own, StL's and SJs. Even if it gets pushed to 2020.

 

[sabremike]

Huh? An extra 1st is an extra 1st. Adding to our own, StL's and SJs. Even if it gets pushed to 2020.

We gave up our second in the deal. We finish 10th worse that's 41 OA. We get a pick that ends up 27th OA our huge benefit was moving up 14 spots in a draft where the available talent from picks 14-50 is pretty much the same. Tldr: Sign Jeff.

 

[Jim Bob]

We gave up our second in the deal. We finish 10th worse that's 41 OA. We get a pick that ends up 27th OA our huge benefit was moving up 14 spots in a draft where the available talent from picks 14-50 is pretty much the same. Tldr: Sign Jeff.

I think most people want to re-sign Skinner given how well he has played this season.

But, if the team keeps moving in the wrong direction and early extension talks with Skinner don't go well, Botterill has to look at getting whatever he can at the deadline for Skinner.

What they gave up for him is a moot point.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Woodhouse]

I'm concerned that Skinner might decline to negotiate until the opening of free agency if the Sabres keep losing.

SN1 had a graphic earlier tonight for most regular season games played among active players without a playoff game: Skinner 625, Bogo 593, Faulk 523, E.Lindholm 421, Risto 392. He has to be itching to play some playoff hockey, like E.Kane, so at what point does the nosedive in the standings give him enough pause about an extension and pivot to potential deadline opportunities with whomever? Early-to-mid February and 10+ out? They can talk terms/process all they want here at the bye/break as planned, but that drought has to be in the back of his mind.

 

[wnysupport]

Random smattering of thoughts...

This will be his last big contract, so I get the he probably wants to play in the playoffs line of thinking....but is he going to give up 10m+ for that? (Figure the 8th year guaranteed at 8.5-9 plus the difference in the 7 other years, as I don’t know all the other teams salary cap situations, etc)

Family wise....Granted Taveras did pass up the 8th year, but Jeff isn’t going to fit in to the Toronto cap and he’s as close as he can get to Toronto without playing there.

If they are talking you can’t let him go for 500k one way or the other.

 

[VaporTrail]

Anyone else think 9 or 10 mill is too much for him ? I'm thinking 8mill, and I'm ok with a longer deal

 

[Jim Bob]

Anyone else think 9 or 10 mill is too much for him ? I'm thinking 8mill, and I'm ok with a longer deal

As long as he is top 5 in the NHL in goals, I think it is wishful thinking that he will accept a deal under $9M per unless he is willing to take less to stay close to home for the foreseeable future.

 

[Jim Bob]

Giordano, Kucherov among PHWA's NHL mid-season award winners - Sportsnet.ca

Comeback Player of the Year Award – to the player who returned to a previous high level of performance that was interrupted by subpar play, long-term injury or major illness.
1. Robin Lehner, New York Islanders
2. Jeff Skinner, Buffalo Sabres
3. Zach Parise, Minnesota Wild

 

[Reddawg]

Random smattering of thoughts...

This will be his last big contract, so I get the he probably wants to play in the playoffs line of thinking....but is he going to give up 10m+ for that? (Figure the 8th year guaranteed at 8.5-9 plus the difference in the 7 other years, as I don’t know all the other teams salary cap situations, etc)

Family wise....Granted Taveras did pass up the 8th year, but Jeff isn’t going to fit in to the Toronto cap and he’s as close as he can get to Toronto without playing there.

If they are talking you can’t let him go for 500k one way or the other.

We genuinely have no idea what's in these guys heads or what is important to them. We just watched Berglund walk away from a guaranteed $10m plus because he didn't want to play anymore, it's not out of the realm to believe that Skinner will walk away from $10m plus over the life of a contract in exchange for being able to play close to home, family and friends for the bulk of the rest of his career. I'm not expecting a tremendous discount, but I don't think it's unreasonable to think he will sign with us for less than he could get in Arizona or wherever.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

He's signing with us, it's a great situation for him here. I think the best Botterill will be able to get him for is $8.5M AAV.

Anybody who doesn't see signing him as critical is insane seeing as we have nobody who projects to be a 30 goal player and we don't have the depth anywhere to trade for one that doesn't create yet another hole.

 

[jBuds]

He's signing with us, it's a great situation for him here. I think the best Botterill will be able to get him for is $8.5M AAV.

Anybody who doesn't see signing him as critical is insane seeing as we have nobody who projects to be a 30 goal player and we don't have the depth anywhere to trade for one that doesn't create yet another hole.

Crazy that he’s a 30g player for us... at the all star break...

 

[Reddawg]

He's signing with us, it's a great situation for him here. I think the best Botterill will be able to get him for is $8.5M AAV.

Anybody who doesn't see signing him as critical is insane seeing as we have nobody who projects to be a 30 goal player and we don't have the depth anywhere to trade for one that doesn't create yet another hole.

I'll be beyond thrilled if he signs with us for $8.5m AAV. Super happy.

 

[Gordo21]

Crazy that he’s a 30g player for us... at the all star break...

Skinner should sign almost any realistic deal he's offered by the Sabres.

His market value will never be this high again, thanks to a large degree to Eichel. Obviously he gets a bunch of credit too. Odds remain that it's most likely an outlier season regardless.

For his camp to play ANY hardball, given that the Sabres will more than likely offer a huge chunk of money, would be pretty bold.

Of course, I could just be jealous.

 

[Icicle]

Skinner should sign almost any realistic deal he's offered by the Sabres.

His market value will never be this high again, thanks to a large degree to Eichel. Obviously he gets a bunch of credit too. Odds remain that it's most likely an outlier season regardless.

For his camp to play ANY hardball, given that the Sabres will more than likely offer a huge chunk of money, would be pretty bold.

Of course, I could just be jealous.

Outlier season? A perennial 30g scorer finally gets a decent center for the first time in his career and improves? Everything about it fits.

 

[Jim Bob]

Outlier season? A perennial 30g scorer finally gets a decent center for the first time in his career and improves? Everything about it fits.

Jeff Skinner's career shooting% is 11.3%.

Jeff Skinner's career high shooting% prior to this season was his rookie year at 14.4%.

Jeff Skinner's shooting% this season is 19.6%. And it was well over 20% earlier this season.

Over the course of Skinner's next contract, his shooting% will be a lot closer to 10% than 20%. Even if he stays in Buffalo and is stapled to Eichel's LW.

 

[Jim Bob]

Skinner should sign almost any realistic deal he's offered by the Sabres.

His market value will never be this high again, thanks to a large degree to Eichel. Obviously he gets a bunch of credit too. Odds remain that it's most likely an outlier season regardless.

For his camp to play ANY hardball, given that the Sabres will more than likely offer a huge chunk of money, would be pretty bold.

Of course, I could just be jealous.

Signing prior to 7/1 will likely limit his market value by limiting the number of bidders to 1.

I would expect that Skinner gets at least 7yrs x $9M per on the open market if he's looking to maximize his next contract and he doesn't care about who he signs with.

The thing we don't know is how important is geography and team fit to Skinner. This will be his last huge contract. Some players de-prioritize those other things at that point in their career.

If Skinner wants to stay in Buffalo and try and maximize the contract, I would expect his agent to start talks asking for 8 yrs @ $10M+ per with the goal of getting 8 yrs and $9M+ per.

But, we shall see how this plays out.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Icicle]

Jeff Skinner's career shooting% is 11.3%.

Jeff Skinner's career high shooting% prior to this season was his rookie year at 14.4%.

Jeff Skinner's shooting% this season is 19.6%. And it was well over 20% earlier this season.

Over the course of Skinner's next contract, his shooting% will be a lot closer to 10% than 20%. Even if he stays in Buffalo and is stapled to Eichel's LW.

Every player has a different shooting average they maintain, and it can be very linemate dependent. Going from the awful centers he's played 3rd line with, to playing with a top-tier elite distributor is going to change those numbers. Your simple regression analysis isn't taking any of this real factor into consideration.

 

[Jim Bob]

Every player has a different shooting average they maintain, and it can be very linemate dependent. Going from the awful centers he's played 3rd line with, to playing with a top-tier elite distributor is going to change those numbers. Your simple regression analysis isn't taking any of this real factor into consideration.

Shooting% trends are larger than just the Skinner sample size when it comes to trends around outlier seasons with respect to shooting% and regression to the mean over time.

If playing with a great center was all it took, then Phil Kessel would consistently be a 60 goal guy playing with Crosby or Malkin.

That isn't how it works over the long haul.

 

[Jim Bob]

Jeff Skinner

Jeff Skinner's shooting% by month this season:

October - 17.6%
November - 28.6%
December - 15.4%
January - 12.9%

Also of note:

Skinner's shooting% for the season to date: 19.61% [30 goals on 153 SOG]
Skinner's shooting% during the 10 game winning streak: 32.26% [10 goals on 31 SOG]
Skinner's shooting% outside of the winning streak: 16.39% [20 goals on 122 SOG]

This isn't just about playing with Eichel. It is also about a ridiculous run of good fortune during that 10 game winning streak that was not sustainable.

 

[Icicle]

Jeff Skinner

Jeff Skinner's shooting% by month this season:

October - 17.6%
November - 28.6%
December - 15.4%
January - 12.9%

Also of note:

Skinner's shooting% for the season to date: 19.61% [30 goals on 153 SOG]
Skinner's shooting% during the 10 game winning streak: 32.26% [10 goals on 31 SOG]
Skinner's shooting% outside of the winning streak: 16.39% [20 goals on 122 SOG]

This isn't just about playing with Eichel. It is also about a ridiculous run of good fortune during that 10 game winning streak that was not sustainable.

His lowest numbers in Buffalo are higher than any season's past averages. If you do your t-test like a good statistician, it'll show a statistical increase since coming to Buffalo.

That is not 'he's going to regress to the mean, he's incredibly lucky'. That is, 'he increased his percentage now that he has an elite center'. The 'he's going to regress to the mean' is an argument you make when a guy is shooting 30% over a few game stretch, and it's not large enough of a sample size to have statistical significance. We're 2/3 of the way into the season and he's kept up a higher average than any season's past. He has statistically proved he's increased his average. That is how statistics work.