Player Discussion Jeff Petry (Part II) - #mynamejeff Edition

[TheBuriedHab]

They need to lock him up. Hes blossomed into our number 1 defenseman. What a deal Bergevin made to get this guy years ago.

 

[ahmedou]

Would we resign him? What can we offer as a maximum amount? If we've over-better than Petry in our d-depth I'm willing to consider it as a alternative...

 

[Habs Halifax]

we need to keep Petry, his skating is effortless and shouldn't be a problem for a long time. If a right d needs to go I vote old man Weber..

I'm open to it but the minute a GM tries to buy Weber for cheap, I shut it down. Weber has shown zero signs of slowing down and his age 30+ stats are on par or better than his career stats so his age and worries about decline have been talked about over and over since we acquire him and no evidence yet. His skating is what it is and it's been that way for a very long time.

If the return is right, I'm certainly open to trading Weber and I would also consider retention but not because he sucks, because I would want to engage on what it takes to get the return we want and to also help fit him in on a cup contender.

I don't believe we are becoming contenders in the Weber window of 2-4 years (Age 34-37). So yeah, trading him to a contender might make him happy and also make our team better suited for when we might start to contend which appears to in another 2 or 3 years. If we keep Weber, we might have him at the tale end of his window vs when we are a better team cause the prospects are making impact.

 

[Mrb1p]

THAT'S MY POINT! How are you not getting that?

You're comparing a 33 year old Petry to a 30 year old Buff that had every dimension to his game that Petry has PLUS being a physical beast and a 32 year old Burns who's an offensive dynamo. And you think its realistic that Petry would look to be paid 8 million a year. For **** sakes, Gardiner younger, isn't that far off of Petry impact-wise and just signed for significantly less.

Yes, considering the cap goes up about 2.5 percent every year or so... Maybe youre not just playing the part.

Gardiner is pretty far from Petry, I think we should stop that right there.

You cannot be dishonest like that. Either Petry is a great player and deserves to be signed to a great price or hes a Gardiner level player and is more of complimentary piece. Can't have it both ways, man.

Heres the rundown:
Petry signed his contract at 7.97% of the cap, this falls at 6.8 @ 85 millions (Really conservative, assuming a growth of less than 2% a year,.)
Byfuglien signed his contract at 10.6% of the cap, this falls at 9.01 @ 85.

You think that Petry is going to ask for less than he had on his last contract when he shattered every personal record he ever had ? He's better than he's ever been, yet he should take a pay cut? In reality, hes going to fall in between 7 and 9, probably at 8, or a bit below this.

 

[CheldishGamibno]

Nice rebuttal, I love the contribution you've made to this forum!

Respect your elders, I've been here way longer.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Would we resign him? What can we offer as a maximum amount? If we've over-better than Petry in our d-depth I'm willing to consider it as a alternative...

Petry is 31/32 this season and 32/33 next season with a December birth date. That's very good value for what he can do at this age and the cap hit he has. However, his next contract is a trap contract from 33+. If anybody signs him, term will be a huge factor in terms of negotiation.

Is Petry the type to go after the max AAV and term? Not really cause remember he signed an extension with us before he became UFA and many thought he would get more in free agency.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Respect your elders, I've been here way longer.

I only respect elders if they speak sense and logic and you do so I respect you for it As a result, I'm respecting you for what you say and how you communicate more than how long you have been on this site

 

[Mrb1p]

Respect your elders, I've been here way longer.

No respect for the elders if theyre dumb

 

[Captain Mountain]

Yes, considering the cap goes up about 2.5 percent every year or so... Maybe youre not just playing the part.

Gardiner is pretty far from Petry, I think we should stop that right there.

You cannot be dishonest like that. Either Petry is a great player and deserves to be signed to a great price or hes a Gardiner level player and is more of complimentary piece. Can't have it both ways, man.

Heres the rundown:
Petry signed his contract at 7.97% of the cap, this falls at 6.8 @ 85 millions (Really conservative, assuming a growth of less than 2% a year,.)
Byfuglien signed his contract at 10.6% of the cap, this falls at 9.01 @ 85.

You think that Petry is going to ask for less than he had on his last contract when he shattered every personal record he ever had ? He's better than he's ever been, yet he should take a pay cut? In reality, hes going to fall in between 7 and 9, probably at 8, or a bit below this.

1) Again, aging curves are a thing. There's a reason teams don't pay big money or term to older players that aren't elite. And while Petry is great, he isn't elite. And its intellectually dishonest to ignore that to support an argument to justify trading him. You're saying Montreal should trade him because he's going to ask for an inflated argument and it would be a bad idea for Montreal to commit that much money to a player that age. Guess what? Its a bad idea for EVERY team to commit that much money to a non-elite player that age. And they know it.

2) Gardiner is not "pretty far" from Petry. Both have defensive weaknesses, bring a lot of value in transition and on offense and tend to be accused of being atrocious defensively when they have to play with god-awful D partners (Alzner, Zaitsev). Their underlying numbers are pretty similar and they occupy similar roles.

 

[Mrb1p]

1) Again, aging curves are a thing. There's a reason teams don't pay big money or term to older players that aren't elite. And while Petry is great, he isn't elite. And its intellectually dishonest to ignore that to support an argument to justify trading him. You're saying Montreal should trade him because he's going to ask for an inflated argument and it would be a bad idea for Montreal to commit that much money to a player that age. Guess what? Its a bad idea for EVERY team to commit that much money to a non-elite player that age. And they know it.

2) Gardiner is not "pretty far" from Petry. Both have defensive weaknesses, bring a lot of value in transition and on offense and tend to be accused of being atrocious defensively when they have to play with god-awful D partners (Alzner, Zaitsev). Their underlying numbers are pretty similar and they occupy similar roles.

1) Aging curves are as much of a thing as the cap going up, career performances and career earnings.

Again, 8 is 9.5% of 85, its the equivalent of signing for 6.5 millions back when those guys signed. You act like salary are fixed in time, they are not, they move along with the cap.

2) If you think Gardiner is anything close to Petry I cannot help you, but its funny because Gardiner was available this year and signed a very, very cheap contract and it seemed like no one wanted him... Does that mean Petry is a lot less valuable than you are willing to admit ? Again, dishonesty at his best.

Either Petry is a rare commodity and hes worth his money, or hes a complimentary player that comes along often and isnt worth investing in, can't have it both ways.

 

[Captain Mountain]

1) Aging curves are as much of a thing as the cap going up, career performances and career earnings.

Again, 8 is 9.5% of 85, its the equivalent of signing for 6.5 millions back when those guys signed. You act like salary are fixed in time, they are not, they move along with the cap.

2) If you think Gardiner is anything close to Petry I cannot help you, but its funny because Gardiner was available this year and signed a very, very cheap contract and it seemed like no one wanted him... Does that mean Petry is a lot less valuable than you are willing to admit ? Again, dishonesty at his best.

Either Petry is a rare commodity and hes worth his money, or hes a complimentary player that comes along often and isnt worth investing in, can't have it both ways.

You are aware that you are the only one in this tete-a-tete that has actually tried to set a value to Petry, right? And that its become increasingly clear that you did so to justify you argument.

You're basically just ignoring signing age, assuming I hold a couple of positions I've never stated and

If you want to argue against a caricature of me, just stick my avatar in a Word or something and go to town.

Its not x or y. Petry is a very good player. He's not elite. He's probably not going to look for elite compensation. The league as a whole is turning more towards compensating guys in their 20s rather than in their 30s. The way the league operates is constantly shifting and that is the clear trend. This isn't complicated stuff, stop trying to craft a narrative to fit your position.

 

[Mrb1p]

You are aware that you are the only one in this tete-a-tete that has actually tried to set a value to Petry, right? And that its become increasingly clear that you did so to justify you argument.

You're basically just ignoring signing age, assuming I hold a couple of positions I've never stated and

If you want to argue against a caricature of me, just stick my avatar in a Word or something and go to town.

Its not x or y. Petry is a very good player. He's not elite. He's probably not going to look for elite compensation. The league as a whole is turning more towards compensating guys in their 20s rather than in their 30s. The way the league operates is constantly shifting and that is the clear trend. This isn't complicated stuff, stop trying to craft a narrative to fit your position.

Im not ignoring signing age for christs sakes You see so many contracts signed at around 8.5% of the cap for 30+ players, its actually crazy youre disputing this. Heck, Lucic signed at 8.5% of the cap. Players are here to make money, and Petry is going to ask for this money.

You seem to think that 8 millions is elite money, but its not 2011 anymore, thats the main problem. Its going to be 2020 in a few weeks, players are not paid 3 millions to be 2nd pair defenders anymore. Ive tried to give you so many numbers for you to understand this. Petry signing at 8 millions in two years doesnt mean hes going to get elite money, it means hes getting fair value, elite money is usually well over 10% of the cap, Toews signed at 15%, Price at 13, Weber at 13%...

Gardiner signing at 5% when no one wanted him isnt an indicator of the actual market value, heck, Alzner signed at 6.2% of the cap.

 

[Capitano]

I get the current emphasis on speed, but some older guys are adept at taking care of themselves, especially on defense. Moreover, Nashville had several other elite defencemen in a position to take up the slack, namely Ekholm, Josi and Ellis, not to mention getting an elite defenseman back in that trade, in Subban. This is where the Nashville analogy breaks down completely. If the trade produces a similarly qualified defenseman in return, there may be a case to be made, but I don't see most teams being that generous. Nashville managed to get a Subban back because of an unusual situation involving a hapless, irrational coach, who had sway over an inexperienced GM, running said player out of town.

Don't misunderstand me, I like Petry, I think he is playing very well. But I don't think our core will win a cup before Petry is too old. Players don't get better with age...they decline. It's reality. Even Price said his window is closing. Bergevin is the only person who doesn't think this apparently.

But it's ok...keep Petry...re-sign him...and round and round we go.

 

[Mrb1p]

Don't misunderstand me, I like Petry, I think he is playing very well. But I don't think our core will win a cup before Petry is too old. Players don't get better with age...they decline. It's reality. Even Price said his window is closing. Bergevin is the only person who doesn't think this apparently.

But it's ok...keep Petry...re-sign him...and round and round we go.

Especially players that rely so heavily on skating.

 

[HabsMD97]

Petry will get a deal similar to edler. 3x6 or 3x6.5which is a fine deal. Id rather have a 33 year old Petry making 6.5 than 35 year Weber making 8. Bergevin is not a forward thinking GM so I don't expect him to do this but he should be looking to trade Weber after this season depending on if Fleury is Ready for top 4 duties. Keeping Weber over Petry would be a monumental mistake. Julien is already using Petry like the #1 D over Weber and it's not gonna get any better.

 

[Man Purse]

HabsMD97

he would take that deal, he's not a haggler

 

[Mrb1p]

Petry will get a deal similar to edler. 3x6 or 3x6.5which is a fine deal. Id rather have a 33 year old Petry making 6.5 than 35 year Weber making 8. Bergevin is not a forward thinking GM so I don't expect him to do this but he should be looking to trade Weber after this season depending on if Fleury is Ready for top 4 duties. Keeping Weber over Petry would be a monumental mistake. Julien is already using Petry like the #1 D over Weber and it's not gonna get any better.

Would you trade Edler for Petry? No? Thats because Petry is better.

Edler signed at 8% btw, which means... 7 millions in two years.

 

[Adriatic]

Love me some Petry. He's like a fine wine, keeps getting better with age and he's perfectly slotted behind Weber. His effortless skating is probably the reason he will be able to keep this level up for a long time.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Im not ignoring signing age for christs sakes You see so many contracts signed at around 8.5% of the cap for 30+ players, its actually crazy youre disputing this. Heck, Lucic signed at 8.5% of the cap. Players are here to make money, and Petry is going to ask for this money.

You seem to think that 8 millions is elite money, but its not 2011 anymore, thats the main problem. Its going to be 2020 in a few weeks, players are not paid 3 millions to be 2nd pair defenders anymore. Ive tried to give you so many numbers for you to understand this. Petry signing at 8 millions in two years doesnt mean hes going to get elite money, it means hes getting fair value, elite money is usually well over 10% of the cap, Toews signed at 15%, Price at 13, Weber at 13%...

Gardiner signing at 5% when no one wanted him isnt an indicator of the actual market value, heck, Alzner signed at 6.2% of the cap.

There are exactly 7 NHL D-men in the league with an 8 mil AAV or more. Are you actually suggesting that at 33 years of age, Petry will be looking to be paid in that range. Come on.

And don't bring up the Gardiner signing at 5% crap, you're assuming that Petry will have significantly more demand than Gardiner without much basis. Petry is better, but its not like their value to a team is that far off.

 

[Mrb1p]

There are exactly 7 NHL D-men in the league with an 8 mil AAV or more. Are you actually suggesting that at 33 years of age, Petry will be looking to be paid in that range. Come on.

And don't bring up the Gardiner signing at 5% crap, you're assuming that Petry will have significantly more demand than Gardiner without much basis. Petry is better, but its not like their value to a team is that far off.

Petry is better and has a much better reputation = hes getting more money.

How many Dmen do you think will be paid over 8ms by 2021? Like 6-7 more easily.

Also, how many Dman signed at 8% of the cap ? Lol, are you willing to go there? Because thats where you die.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Petry is better and has a much better reputation = hes getting more money.

How many Dmen do you think will be paid over 8ms by 2021? Like 6-7 more easily.

Also, how many Dman signed at 8% of the cap ? Lol, are you willing to go there? Because thats where you die.

How precisely does Petry have a much better reputation than Gardiner? I was under the impression Petry wasn't well known league-wide.

And what exactly do you think the cap is going to be in two years? Because I can't imagine 8% of the cap is going to be 8 million.

And you're still ignoring the changing nature of how contracts are offered while simultaneously using that same basis (don't spend a lot on older players) to justify trading Petry and not re-signing him.

What the **** is your point? That Petry is as good as Burns? Or that 33 is the new 30?

 

[Wats]

Definitely trade him at deadline/offseason. His return can potentially help the organization long term, which is only thing we have to look forward to as short term is mediocre.

 

[Mrb1p]

How precisely does Petry have a much better reputation than Gardiner? I was under the impression Petry wasn't well known league-wide.

And what exactly do you think the cap is going to be in two years? Because I can't imagine 8% of the cap is going to be 8 million.

And you're still ignoring the changing nature of how contracts are offered while simultaneously using that same basis (don't spend a lot on older players) to justify trading Petry and not re-signing him.

What the **** is your point? That Petry is as good as Burns? Or that 33 is the new 30?

If the cap keep following the trend its been following since its implementation, we should see it at about 85ish millions, but I expect more with the revenues from 2 teams+ and other factors such as markets growing and dollar fluctuation. (So about 9.5% for 8 millions if its 85)

Contracts dont change man, players need to get paid, the influx on young talent doesnt change this, players are goign to want max money wherever they are, unless you expect every 30+ to just disappear, theyll get paid no matter what the young guys are getting.

Also, are you acting like this has never happened ? Alzner contract, Lucic contract, Price contract, Vlasic contract, Marleau contract, Gomez contract, etc. Bad contracts are handed out yearly, I dont understand why you'd need to say this. If a contender can land Petry for 7 millions you think they wont do it ?

My point is that Petry is gonna get paid fair market value and that market value is much higher than youre willing to admit. (8-9-10% range)

 

[OldCraig71]

I wish that he was called Bob Petry, I hate the name Jeff. It just sounds so prickish.

 

[Captain Mountain]

If the cap keep following the trend its been following since its implementation, we should see it at about 85ish millions, but I expect more with the revenues from 2 teams+ and other factors such as markets growing and dollar fluctuation. (So about 9.5% for 8 millions if its 85)

Contracts dont change man, players need to get paid, the influx on young talent doesnt change this, players are goign to want max money wherever they are, unless you expect every 30+ to just disappear, theyll get paid no matter what the young guys are getting.

Also, are you acting like this has never happened ? Alzner contract, Lucic contract, Price contract, Vlasic contract, Marleau contract, Gomez contract, etc. Bad contracts are handed out yearly, I dont understand why you'd need to say this. If a contender can land Petry for 7 millions you think they wont do it ?

My point is that Petry is gonna get paid fair market value and that market value is much higher than youre willing to admit. (8-9-10% range)

He's not in 9.4% and up range, he's worth the 8% range. And you assuming that Petry will be asking for 8 million, despite precious little in terms of recent com parables (age, impact, reputation) is what I'm disagreeing with. Especially since the trend is that younger players are getting more now relative to what they were asking before. The offset is that league is a whole is recognizing that players primes are in their RFA years (mid to late 20s) and not their UFA years (late 20s to early 30s).