Blue Jays Discussion: Jays Sign Dan Johnson, Can He Save Toronto's Season?

[Nasty Nazem]

Morrow was a reliever himself at the time I believe? Kind of a pain to sort through the stats on my phone. He was drafted high, was a starter, then a closer I think. The Napoli deal was simply an awful deal, I cannot defend that one. Low ride improved drastically IIRC as well. Rogers was pretty bad himself and Reddicks numbers also improved dramatically post-trade. The point I'm making is that in almost every instance the players received in return for the relievers started having career years, it's 20/20

Yeah, Seattle went back and forth with Morrow as a starter. The season he had before being traded for was pretty good as a starter though. Made 10 starters with a 3.68 ERA whereas, it was 6+ as a reliever. Seattle just didn't stick it out with him or maybe they felt they had enough starters and just wanted a good reliever.

Lowrie was really good in Boston but main problem was staying healthy. Still, giving up on a SS who can hit for a reliever is hard to do. Reddick was good in Boston too and on the upswing but they had too many OF so they traded from their depth (the type of players AA should be targeting for his relievers -- teams much more willing to give up expandable players in a position of depth).

Interesting part is, the relievers given up in the deal weren't all that good either. Melancon had one good year before being traded. Rogers had one good year as a reliever. Bailey couldn't stay healthy. Francisco was decent but never dominant. League seemed to alternate between good and bad each year. So really, the risk was on both sides and I don't think any of those relievers was as good as say Casey Janssen who has been healthy, good + a closer.

Another deal I just remember: Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos... which was hilarious at the time and even more now. Would have been nice if we could have traded a reliever for Ramos.

 

[calcal798]

DBacks are looking for a bat behind Goldschmidt. I wouldn't mind taking Bradley off their hands.

I wouldn't mind going after Corbin or Miley.

 

[calcal798]

o_0

Would you mind elaborating as to why.

The debate might be between whether we would want Smyly or Porcello coming back. Smyly would definitely be more suitable as a starter, and would be awesome adding a young Lefty to the rotation as well.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

The debate might be between whether we would want Smyly or Porcello coming back. Smyly would definitely be more suitable as a starter, and would be awesome adding a young Lefty to the rotation as well.

Porcello is far more likely to be available. Smyly is actually perhaps the second least likely current starter (potential starter) that they'll trade behind Verlander.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Athletics have been using this strategy for quite some time to turn quality relievers into guys like Reddick and Lowrie. Don't see why Jannsen couldn't be traded for a young starter with upside (ala Porcello).



I think he would be worth a deal around Janssen, and would be an awesome addition to our rotation.

Which Porcello are we talking about? The guy hasn't been good. No way I give up Casey for a below average starter who could easily be had for less or on the free agent market. He's a dime a dozen.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Yeah, Seattle went back and forth with Morrow as a starter. The season he had before being traded for was pretty good as a starter though. Made 10 starters with a 3.68 ERA whereas, it was 6+ as a reliever. Seattle just didn't stick it out with him or maybe they felt they had enough starters and just wanted a good reliever.

Lowrie was really good in Boston but main problem was staying healthy. Still, giving up on a SS who can hit for a reliever is hard to do. Reddick was good in Boston too and on the upswing but they had too many OF so they traded from their depth (the type of players AA should be targeting for his relievers -- teams much more willing to give up expandable players in a position of depth).

Interesting part is, the relievers given up in the deal weren't all that good either. Melancon had one good year before being traded. Rogers had one good year as a reliever. Bailey couldn't stay healthy. Francisco was decent but never dominant. League seemed to alternate between good and bad each year. So really, the risk was on both sides and I don't think any of those relievers was as good as say Casey Janssen who has been healthy, good + a closer.

Another deal I just remember: Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos... which was hilarious at the time and even more now. Would have been nice if we could have traded a reliever for Ramos.

Exactly my point in that none of the position players dealt were fantastic, they were seen as spare parts, just like many relievers. Relievers just don't hold much value, I would never trade a homer bailey for a closer.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Which Porcello are we talking about? The guy hasn't been good. No way I give up Casey for a below average starter who could easily be had for less or on the free agent market. He's a dime a dozen.

Exactly my point in that none of the position players dealt were fantastic, they were seen as spare parts, just like many relievers. Relievers just don't hold much value, I would never trade a homer bailey for a closer.

I'm confused. On one hand, you wouldn't trade a thirty-two year old closer for a twenty-five year old pitcher with the 3rd best ground ball rate in the majors, but on the other you are aware that relievers don't hold much value. It seems a bit contradictory.

 

[calcal798]

Porcello is far more likely to be available. Smyly is actually perhaps the second least likely current starter (potential starter) that they'll trade behind Verlander.

Didn't think he'd have more value then Scherzer, but it's not surprising. He is young, has some nasty stuff, and is a Lefty.

Which Porcello are we talking about? The guy hasn't been good. No way I give up Casey for a below average starter who could easily be had for less or on the free agent market. He's a dime a dozen.

Rick Porcello from Detroit. Has one of the highest GB % in the league, 31st in WAR over the past two years among qualified starters, is only 24. He may not have upside that suggest a 1 or 2 starter, but would be a solid addition to a rotation that was atrocious last year.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

I'm confused. On one hand, you wouldn't trade a thirty-two year old closer for a twenty-five year old pitcher with the 3rd best ground ball rate in the majors, but on the other you are aware that relievers don't hold much value. It seems a bit contradictory.

What's so confusing? I wouldn't trade our closer for a mediocre starter? Doesn't seem confusing to me. I'd use other ways of getting a starter, as I've already stated.

 

[The Nemesis]

What's so confusing? I wouldn't trade our closer for a mediocre starter? Doesn't seem confusing to me. I'd use other ways of getting a starter, as I've already stated.

Janssen being "the closer" is incredibly overrated. He does a good job there, but so do most good relievers put into the position.

and almost any time you can trade a reliever for a decent starter, you do it. Porcello gives you 170+ innings of solid work. Better work than his surface stats indicate. Janssen, though outstanding, is only giving you 60ish innings max per season as a closer. And that value is diminished some when you have multiple guys in the pen who could potentially step into that role without missing a beat.

 

[topched]

Couple interesting notes:

Jeff Niemann has opted for FA after being taken off the rays 40 man. Any interest in a guy who has fared pretty well in the AL east, but been injury prone courtesy of Adam Lind?

Secondly, Hudson just got a 2 year 23mil deal from SF. Comparable numbers expected for Arroyo if were interested

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Didn't think he'd have more value then Scherzer, but it's not surprising. He is young, has some nasty stuff, and is a Lefty.



Rick Porcello from Detroit. Has one of the highest GB % in the league, 31st in WAR over the past two years among qualified starters, is only 24. He may not have upside that suggest a 1 or 2 starter, but would be a solid addition to a rotation that was atrocious last year.

gb%? Not exactly the most persuasive argument. It would help in the Rogers center but I wouldn't be too thrilled based on the Jays defense. Look at the BAPIP. It's one thing to be a good ground ball pitcher, it's another to give up a ton oh hits. .315 last year, .344 the year before. Not exactly encouraging. Add on top of that the fact that he's well below average in K's and I'm not even sure that age can compensate. Porcello really isn't a better option than what we have internally.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Janssen being "the closer" is incredibly overrated. He does a good job there, but so do most good relievers put into the position.

and almost any time you can trade a reliever for a decent starter, you do it. Porcello gives you 170+ innings of solid work. Better work than his surface stats indicate. Janssen, though outstanding, is only giving you 60ish innings max per season as a closer. And that value is diminished some when you have multiple guys in the pen who could potentially step into that role without missing a beat.

170 innings of below average pitching doesn't overshadow 60 innings of excellent pitching. Yes, starters hold more value but I'm talking about good starters, not below average. And the closer role is overrated most of the time but as we've seen with our own eyes, it's not a role that everybody can fill. It's not as simple as just plugging in a good reliever, it's just not that easy.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Couple interesting notes:

Jeff Niemann has opted for FA after being taken off the rays 40 man. Any interest in a guy who has fared pretty well in the AL east, but been injury prone courtesy of Adam Lind?

Secondly, Hudson just got a 2 year 23mil deal from SF. Comparable numbers expected for Arroyo if were interested

I'd definitely take a chance on Niemann. Very underrated pitcher who's been hurt. He'd fit in perfectly around here because of that lol

 

[Nasty Nazem]

One thing with Porcello is that he is a GB pitcher but plays behind a Detroit Tigers defense that had Cabrera at 3B, Peralta at SS and Fielder at 1B. Not exactly a whole lot of range there to help Porcello out.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

gb%? Not exactly the most persuasive argument. It would help in the Rogers center but I wouldn't be too thrilled based on the Jays defense. Look at the BAPIP. It's one thing to be a good ground ball pitcher, it's another to give up a ton oh hits. .315 last year, .344 the year before. Not exactly encouraging. Add on top of that the fact that he's well below average in K's and I'm not even sure that age can compensate. Porcello really isn't a better option than what we have internally.

When you have two overweight first basemen on the field at the same time, it tends to hurt a pitcher who inspires contact. That would help explain the high BABIP. He increased his k/9 this year, and is trending upward. His SIERA ranked him in the top 20 among starters in 2013. You are underrating him.

 

[Mr Knies Guy]

Janssen being "the closer" is incredibly overrated. He does a good job there, but so do most good relievers put into the position.

and almost any time you can trade a reliever for a decent starter, you do it. Porcello gives you 170+ innings of solid work. Better work than his surface stats indicate. Janssen, though outstanding, is only giving you 60ish innings max per season as a closer. And that value is diminished some when you have multiple guys in the pen who could potentially step into that role without missing a beat.

Apparently AA doesn't think so, he gave up Napoli for useless Francisco Can't believe he did that

 

[calcal798]

Apparently AA doesn't think so, he gave up Napoli for useless Francisco Can't believe he did that

Hopefully he learnt from his mistakes and won't do that again.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

When you have two overweight first basemen on the field at the same time, it tends to hurt a pitcher who inspires contact. That would help explain the high BABIP. He increased his k/9 this year, and is trending upward. His SIERA ranked him in the top 20 among starters in 2013. You are underrating him.

He's been at just over 5k's a game his whole career and has been up over 7 just once. I don't call that trending upwards, I call that a blip and it would be foolish to assume a guy who's never had a history of strikeouts would suddenly continue going up with the k's. History suggests it goes back down to his norm. This is a guy who was only striking out 5/game in single A. As far as BAPIP goes,trying to blame his infield on it, that's not gonna work either. It was over .300 before Fielder got there. The Tigers are also a top ten ranked defensive team in all of baseball.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

He's been at just over 5k's a game his whole career and has been up over 7 just once. I don't call that trending upwards, I call that a blip and it would be foolish to assume a guy who's never had a history of strikeouts would suddenly continue going up with the k's. History suggests it goes back down to his norm. This is a guy who was only striking out 5/game in single A. As far as BAPIP goes,trying to blame his infield on it, that's not gonna work either. It was over .300 before Fielder got there. The Tigers are also a top ten ranked defensive team in all of baseball.

That was in class A advanced as a 19 year old. The K rate has improved each of the past four years, and has peaked in 2013 as a 24 year old. It is not outlandish to think that it is a trend for a 24 year old to improve. As for the Tigers infield defense, it has sported some of the worst range ratings in the majors over the past four years. They're not horrible defensively, but they do not have range conducive to supporting a ground ball pitcher.

 

[TootooTrain]

Apparently AA doesn't think so, he gave up Napoli for useless Francisco Can't believe he did that

Rookie Gm move. That was a bad bad deal in hindsight. I'm sure he's learned from it.

 

[Nasty Nazem]

Rookie Gm move. That was a bad bad deal in hindsight. I'm sure he's learned from it.

Pulled a Rogers for Gomes and Aviles last year... so not really. He still over values relievers for some reason.

 

[TootooTrain]

Pulled a Rogers for Gomes and Aviles last year... so not really. He still over values relievers for some reason.

Don't mind that one all that much despite what Gomes did last year. I think there's a bit of smoke and mirrors there with him. Aviles is replaceable. Rogers was needed so we didn't have to throw out any more Ortiz' of the world out there.

 

[trellaine201]

I am all in for a good groundball pitcher. Rogers Centre gives up a lot of "taters" every year.

This based on getting a good 2B.

 

[Nasty Nazem]

Jeff Niemann would be a pretty great minor league signing... though I have no idea why he would sign here.