Blue Jays Discussion: Jays draft IF/OF Austin Martin at #5 overall. Time to celebrate

[metafour]

Reaching? MLB.com just came out with an article doing the exact same thing I did. That is were I got the idea. And it was the purpose of having the grades, so you can quantify the player’s upside and compare them to others.

Tool Twins: Comps for the top Draft prospects

I understand what the purpose is. However, they don't put anywhere NEAR enough actual work into this to actually make it a usable "tool" to factually compare players, and you'll find that past the top 30 or whatever players on their list the grades are all over the place. For example, "power" would really need to be broken down into present and projected power, and it would then need to be further broken down into game and raw power. Saying that both Conine and Cassie have "60 power" is silly - one of those guys has hit 425+ foot homeruns against top NCAA and MiLB pitching, the other hit one 420 foot HR supposedly. Cassie's power might be 60 projected, but that is much different than someone like Conine who has 60 present power which actually shows in pro games.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Any chance Blaze Jordan would sign if taken? Kid could be a star.

He has the power to be a star. 100+ mph exit velocities at his age are incredible. I'm not particularly enamored with his plate discipline and ability to consistently make contact. He swings and misses a bit too much for my liking and he hasn't even been facing college pitching yet. He also projects as a first baseman so that's not ideal. Wilcox, Beeter, and Ginn would be my targets in round 2.

 

[Discoverer]

If they can split the difference between the #2 and #5 slot values and settle in somewhere around $7 million, that would be fantastic.

But, really, if for some reason they had to punt all the rest of their picks in order to get it done (which they won't, obviously), I would still be happy with this draft because they got a much better player than I expected.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Really happy with management across the board when it comes to all things Toronto sports. Blue Jays, Raptors, Leafs etc.

Exciting times in Toronto.

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Could have an infield of Jansen, Vladdy, Bichette, Groshans, and Biggio in a few years.. That is filthy to begin with and then you add Martin and Gurriel in the OF... If you can add a couple lefties at DH and the other OF spot I don't see a projected future lineup thats deeper.

 

[kb]

View attachment 349595

Isn't that normally a Gino Reda thing?

 

[jetsforever]

Awesome that Martin fell to #5 (although I keep thinking his name is Aston Martin)
Jays have been great at getting young talent in recent years

 

[Zanks]

So... From limited research, I believe the draconian measure for exceeding your draft budget by greater than 15% is:
100% tax on overage, plus two 1st round picks.

So, what if we went for hard signers the remainder of the draft?
Wilcox
Kelly
Witt
JT Ginn

And just threw what they wanted at them? That's Austin Martin guaranteed (so a 1-1 talent), because we met his demands, and potentially 4 first round talents (instead of 2 firsts, a 2nd, a 3rd, a 4th and a 5th). Plus the 100% tax on the overage ( just money IMO).

Also, we'd have a big wave of players the same age range as our core (Bo, Nate and Vlad).

 

[BertCorbeau]

So what's a realistic timetable for Martin to hit the bigs assuming a modest development curve? 3 years? Or less because he's a college-level player who is already fairly polished?

 

[kb]

So what's a realistic timetable for Martin to hit the bigs assuming a modest development curve? 3 years? Or less because he's a college-level player who is already fairly polished?

In a normal situation, he would probably be expected to be a fast riser - given his expected development curve - he would probably see time by no later than 2022. With no minor league baseball, and no idea when it will return, it's all up in the air.

 

[le_sean]

Now we just need one of our young left handed hitters outside of Biggio to take a step forward, we're too right handed dominant.

So it's up to one of the following to step up:

Fisher
Tellez
McKinney
McGuire
Conine
Robertson
Morris
Clarke

To be fair, the recent Jays playoff teams were RH heavy and were quite successful. I don’t believe their downfall was related to RH pitching matchups.

 

[Canada4Gold]

So... From limited research, I believe the draconian measure for exceeding your draft budget by greater than 15% is:
100% tax on overage, plus two 1st round picks.

So, what if we went for hard signers the remainder of the draft?
Wilcox
Kelly
Witt
JT Ginn

And just threw what they wanted at them? That's Austin Martin guaranteed (so a 1-1 talent), because we met his demands, and potentially 4 first round talents (instead of 2 firsts, a 2nd, a 3rd, a 4th and a 5th). Plus the 100% tax on the overage ( just money IMO).

Also, we'd have a big wave of players the same age range as our core (Bo, Nate and Vlad).

Considering nobody does this when you have 40 picks and could pay 40 highly ranked high schoolers as much as you want out of their college commitments and only lose 2 1st rounders I imagine nobody would ever consider it when you only get 5 guys.

It would be interesting if anyone ever tried to go this route though. In theory, yeah you take away their 1st rounders, they just say screw you the next year and use the same strategy again. I guess you're relying on 1st round talent to drop to overpay at that point as you don't have 1st round picks but I wonder what point the league would cut a team off and put a hard limit on it.

Other teams are going to pick some of those guys too though, so you wouldn't get all 4 even if you tried. Probably only 1 TBH.

 

[Discoverer]

So what's a realistic timetable for Martin to hit the bigs assuming a modest development curve? 3 years? Or less because he's a college-level player who is already fairly polished?

Perfectly reasonable: starts 2021 in A+, mid-season promotion to AA, starts 2022 in AAA, mid-season call-up
Aggressive: starts 2021 in AA, mid-season promotion to AAA, late-season call-up

Three years would be somewhat disappointing.

 

[Maplebeasts]

So what's a realistic timetable for Martin to hit the bigs assuming a modest development curve? 3 years? Or less because he's a college-level player who is already fairly polished?

We're probably looking at an ETA of some time in 2022 or start of 2023. His hit tool, fielding and versatility should help him move up the farm system quickly.

 

[Discoverer]

To be fair, the recent Jays playoff teams were RH heavy and were quite successful. I don’t believe their downfall was related to RH pitching matchups.

Yeah, having some balance is always nice, but it's only a real issue if the hitters have distinct platoon splits. If Vlad/Bo/Martin/Jansen/Gurriel/etc. all hit well against RHP, it doesn't really matter that they're all righties.

 

[NeverGoingToWin]

Yankees did it in the International market so somebody will do it in the draft eventually in my opinion. It did not work out for them though.

The Cautionary Tale of the 2014 International Signing Class

 

[Amadeus]

Would love J.T Ginn but expending an under slot player here. Happy either way.

 

[kb]

Is there reason to be concerned about Beeter's multiple arm surgeries prior to college, and a lack of a real track record and innings pitched in college?

Definitely have to do homework on his medicals....

 

[hockeywiz542]

Blue Jays 'ecstatic' to land Martin with No. 5 pick

TORONTO -- The Blue Jays selected Vanderbilt shortstop Austin Martin with the No. 5 pick in Wednesday’s 2020 MLB Draft, landing one of the top players in the class with the highest selection the organization had held since 1997.

This wasn’t what the Blue Jays were expecting when the Draft opened, but it might be better. When the Orioles selected Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad at No. 2 (the spot many expected to see Martin drafted), Toronto director of amateur scouting Shane Farrell knew there was a chance Martin could be available at No. 5. By the time that pick rolled around, the Blue Jays were “ecstatic.”

“I think we were a little surprised,” Farrell said. “Obviously, we’re keeping an eye on the mock Drafts as they come out throughout the week and aware of industry consensus, but I think it really started to shake up at picks 2 and 3, and we were surprised, but certainly prepared to make that selection.”

“He’s a well-above-average hitter,” Farrell said. “This is a guy who manages the strike zone really well, has extremely high contact rates and is somebody we think has the ability to grow into more power down the road. Just really good bat-to-ball skills and the ability to manage the strike zone.”

Following the pick, Corbin broke down Martin’s swing on MLB Network and compared him to Angels third baseman Anthony Rendon.

“They’ve got similar operating systems in the fact that they really get their belly button low,” Corbin said, “and you see how Austin brings his eyes closer to the zone to better see the ball, which is so important.”

 

[Canada4Gold]

Only a guess, but sure. I'm guessing he doesn't realize slot is already 63.6% of our pool because he seems to be suggesting a fair bit overslot(by the lnot expecting any overslot today comment) but 2/3 is only about 300k overslot which would actually leave us about 150k in overslot left via the 5% allowed overage.

 

[Amadeus]

Only a guess, but sure. I'm guessing he doesn't realize slot is already 63.6% of our pool because he seems to be suggesting a fair bit overslot(by the lnot expecting any overslot today comment) but 2/3 is only about 300k overslot which would actually leave us about 150k in overslot left via the 5% allowed overage.

It is such an archaic system.

 

[kb]

Only a guess, but sure. I'm guessing he doesn't realize slot is already 63.6% of our pool because he seems to be suggesting a fair bit overslot(by the lnot expecting any overslot today comment) but 2/3 is only about 300k overslot which would actually leave us about 150k in overslot left via the 5% allowed overage.

Yeah, there isn't any scenario where I could foresee Boros allowing his client take less than the full 5% overage at the bare minimum. Especially since he was 1-2 on every pre-draft ranking list and he could technically go back to Vanderbilt for his senior year.

 

[dangomon]

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Is there reason to be concerned about Beeter's multiple arm surgeries prior to college, and a lack of a real track record and innings pitched in college?

Definitely have to do homework on his medicals....

Yes, and that's probably why he didn't go day I. But on pure stuff (especially trackman data) he's considered among the very best in the draft (I think ranked 4th overall in composite pitcher analytics).

I'd love to somehow get him tonight, but I'm expecting Caissie at 42, which I can live with.