Confirmed with Link: Jason Botterill Hired As General Manager -- MOD WARNING #1851

[Jim Bob]

Maybe Botterill is a believer that the Canadian development system is flawed. The us switched to a more European style of developing kids and they’ve seen their stock go way up. If Mittelstadt or Dahlin we’re in major junior I have no doubt he’d have drafted them. In the back rounds where there are many more question marks on guys? I can buy it. The trends have been changing away from Canadian dominance. Maybe he’s just on top of it.

I doubt that.

He just seemed to indicate that in the later rounds he prefers players from leagues where the team holds the player's rights for 4 years vs 2 years.

The thought process is that later round picks might take longer to develop and that drafting from outside the CHL allows teams to be more patient.

Victor Olofsson would be a good example for Botterill to point to in that regard.

 

[LetsDoughBuffalo]

I guess it happens. Hes the first OHL player I can remember then doing so.

Who does it happen to more? OHL guys or NCAA guys?

Dylan Sadowy did it just a couple of years ago too.

 

[JLewyB]

I doubt that.

He just seemed to indicate that in the later rounds he prefers players from leagues where the team holds the player's rights for 4 years vs 2 years.

The thought process is that later round picks might take longer to develop and that drafting from outside the CHL allows teams to be more patient.

Victor Olofsson would be a good example for Botterill to point to in that regard.

It’s not just the later rounds though. And for the later rounds, I get why we do draft prospects with the longer control. But Botterill’s value on it is so high that it completely excludes roughly 50 percent of the talent pool. It’s clear we are not drafting BPA or best player of a needed position.

 

[dotcommunism]

It’s not just the later rounds though. And for the later rounds, I get why we do draft prospects with the longer control. But Botterill’s value on it is so high that it completely excludes roughly 50 percent of the talent pool. It’s clear we are not drafting BPA or best player of a needed position.

It is?

 

[JLewyB]

It is?

Yes. The odds that no canadian or any player from juniors is bpa 12x in a row over the course of 2 years straight is pretty slim. Like 2 to the power of 10. Take away middlestadt and Dahlin and it’s 10x in a row.

 

[sincerity0]

Yes. The odds that no canadian or any player from juniors is bpa 12x in a row over the course of 2 years straight is pretty slim. Like 2 to the power of 10. Take away middlestadt and Dahlin and it’s 10x in a row.

The distinction between prospects that late in the draft are so minimal that Botterill finds holding player rights for 4 years vs 2 is a deciding factor.

 

[JLewyB]

The distinction between prospects that late in the draft are so minimal that Botterill finds holding player rights for 4 years vs 2 is a deciding factor.

Yeah. I have a problem with that. The likelihood of landing a nhler in the later rounds is so little already and now we put such a weight into player control that we essentially pass over 50% of pool. It’s going to catch up to us.

 

[dotcommunism]

Yes. The odds that no canadian or any player from juniors is bpa 12x in a row over the course of 2 years straight is pretty slim. Like 2 to the power of 10. Take away middlestadt and Dahlin and it’s 10x in a row.

I'd assume for a lot of those picks there is no "BPA". There's probably a bunch of players they have grouped together. Maybe occasionally there will be someone who they have appreciably higher on their board. I don't think there's any particular reason to believe that they've been passing on CHLers they have ranked as appreciably better players than European or NCAA guys in those later rounds. Letting draft rights be the tie-breaker among guys they have graded as pretty much the same isn't something that I see as a big deal.

 

[darcyRegier]

The bonus of having the player for 4 years vs 2 is more than enough to justify picking a player in rounds 4-7. A player that has at best a 3-4% chance of making the NHL anyways.

At most usually 2-3 players per draft in the later rounds becomes anything more than a bottom line player. I could care less if Botteril's next 100 draft picks are from Europe, as long as they turn out to be good players

 

[JLewyB]

I'd assume for a lot of those picks there is no "BPA". There's probably a bunch of players they have grouped together. Maybe occasionally there will be someone who they have appreciably higher on their board. I don't think there's any particular reason to believe that they've been passing on CHLers they have ranked as appreciably better players than European or NCAA guys in those later rounds. Letting draft rights be the tie-breaker among guys they have graded as pretty much the same isn't something that I see as a big deal.

I’d rather have the tiebreaker be something in regards to talent. Like speed. Compete. Character. Skill. My personal opinion is that those extra 2 years is not that big of a deal. Those 3rd and 4th Years creates its own headaches. Offering nhl games to undeserving prospects. Risking free agency. If they’re in pro leagues then their seasons count toward expansion.

 

[JLewyB]

The bonus of having the player for 4 years vs 2 is more than enough to justify picking a player in rounds 4-7. A player that has at best a 3-4% chance of making the NHL anyways.

At most usually 2-3 players per draft in the later rounds becomes anything more than a bottom line player. I could care less if Botteril's next 100 draft picks are from Europe, as long as they turn out to be good players

Again it’s not just the late rounds.

 

[Paxon]

Again it’s not just the late rounds.

There's not enough data to conclude anything if you're focusing on early rounds, though. There have only been a few draft picks in early rounds by Botterill, one was a no-brainer.

 

[darcyRegier]

Again it’s not just the late rounds.

A lot of people including myself are in love with our first two picks this year. I'm positive he would've selected Svechnikov if we had pick #2. Our first two picks last year so far seem amazing as well. Again who cares where the players are selected from? Maybe they had more looks at players over in Eurpoe this year from watching Olofosson/Asplund/Davidsson and scouting Dahlin?

 

[JLewyB]

A lot of people including myself are in love with our first two picks this year. I'm positive he would've selected Svechnikov if we had pick #2. Our first two picks last year so far seem amazing as well. Again who cares where the players are selected from? Maybe they had more looks at players over in Eurpoe this year from watching Olofosson/Asplund/Davidsson and scouting Dahlin?

It’s not just us. Canadiens made up 47% of the draft class in 2012 and 2013(that’s not counting all the foreign players playing in the CHL). Now it’s 37% last year and 33% this year. Everybody is doing this. If everybody is picking European and Americans then we should be snagging up the Canadiens that keep falling but we are just part of the trend.

 

[brian_griffin]

I'd assume for a lot of those picks there is no "BPA". There's probably a bunch of players they have grouped together. Maybe occasionally there will be someone who they have appreciably higher on their board. I don't think there's any particular reason to believe that they've been passing on CHLers they have ranked as appreciably better players than European or NCAA guys in those later rounds. Letting draft rights be the tie-breaker among guys they have graded as pretty much the same isn't something that I see as a big deal.

Agreed.

I’d rather have the tiebreaker be something in regards to talent. Like speed. Compete. Character. Skill. My personal opinion is that those extra 2 years is not that big of a deal. Those 3rd and 4th Years creates its own headaches. Offering nhl games to undeserving prospects. Risking free agency. If they’re in pro leagues then their seasons count toward expansion.

All valid points, BUT by drafting non-CHL'ers they have the opportunity to also hold a larger number of assets longer. They're holding more lottery tickets longer. They can always flip some down the road vs. having them expire.

But that argument is inconsistent with the 6th round pick swap...

 

[AustonsNostrils]

NCAA players are a double edged sword, you do get an extra year or two to see how they develop before handing them an ELC but we've been on the wrong side of that sword with Petersen, now we have Brandon Hickey.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Dylan Sadowy did it just a couple of years ago too.

I would say the NCAA sees more prospects take 4 years to free agency.

Cal Petersson
Will Butcher
Jimmy Vesey
Alex Kerfoot
Kevin Hayes
Brandon Hickey

Those are names I can remember off the top. Probably more, I know it happens in Europe leagues and OHL as well but it I feel it happens more in the NCAA.

 

[Aladyyn]

Yeah. I have a problem with that. The likelihood of landing a nhler in the later rounds is so little already and now we put such a weight into player control that we essentially pass over 50% of pool. It’s going to catch up to us.

And they have a little more chance if they have 3-4 years of development before you have to make a decision rather than 2.

 

[Jim Bob]

It’s not just the later rounds though. And for the later rounds, I get why we do draft prospects with the longer control. But Botterill’s value on it is so high that it completely excludes roughly 50 percent of the talent pool. It’s clear we are not drafting BPA or best player of a needed position.

Dahlin - BPA

Samuelsson - BPA in their eyes

And last year's 1st and 2nd rounders aren't looking bad a year out, either.

 

[darcyRegier]

So far Botts has traded:

Foligno, Ennis, 3rd, 3rd, 5th, 3rd/4th, E Kane

for

Scandella, Pominville, Beaulieu, Wilson, 2019 1st, O'Regaen, Sheary, and Hunwick

Not bad at all. The ROR return will sway my opinion one way or the other quite a bit though.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Now that he traded with his former team he now has a direct comparison to his predecessor.

Predecessor

#21 overall in an elite draft for Robin Lehner and David Legwand.

Vs

Conditional 3rd or 4th round pick for Conor Sheary and Matt Hunwick. Yeah Hunwick is a cap dump but if he's in Rochester he will cost about $1.2 mil per for 2 years against Legwand a terrible aging 4C making 3 mil for a year. Sheary vs Lehner isn't close, Sheary is far more established and costs so much less.

I knew Murray was trouble when he totally overpaid and got ripped off by his Uncle. Botts completes a mutually beneficial trade with the Pens.

 

[Jim Bob]

Now that he traded with his former team he now has a direct comparison to his predecessor.

Predecessor

#21 overall in an elite draft for Robin Lehner and David Legwand.

Vs

Conditional 3rd or 4th round pick for Conor Sheary and Matt Hunwick. Yeah Hunwick is a cap dump but if he's in Rochester he will cost about $1.2 mil per for 2 years against Legwand a terrible aging 4C making 3 mil for a year. Sheary vs Lehner isn't close, Sheary is far more established and costs so much less.

I knew Murray was trouble when he totally overpaid and got ripped off by his Uncle. Botts completes a mutually beneficial trade with the Pens.

It is way too early to call how Sheary fits here.

There are people that were optimistic when the Beaulieu trade happened and now everyone wishes that Botterill had passed on that deal and the contract he gave him.

The only thing to really judge is that the picks that went the other way was better this time around.

 

[HaNotsri]

It is way too early to call how Sheary fits here.

There are people that were optimistic when the Beaulieu trade happened and now everyone wishes that Botterill had passed on that deal and the contract he gave him.

The only thing to really judge is that the picks that went the other way was better this time around.

Phone call to Vesey
Dan Bylsma
Beaulieu

The cost is the same for all of them. The worst thing about Beaulieu is his contract.
If I had to do one of them again I think I’d go with the phone call to Vesey.
I’d prank call him like there’s no tomorrow.

 

[sabrebuild]

Phone call to Vesey
Dan Bylsma
Beaulieu

The cost is the same for all of them. The worst thing about Beaulieu is his contract.
If I had to do one of them again I think I’d go with the phone call to Vesey.
I’d prank call him like there’s no tomorrow.

I don’t mind the shot for beaulieu or the contract. I just hated Housley playing him endlessly.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Beaulieu can be bought out now for peanuts in terms of cap hit if they think hes no longer worth the gamble. We here certainly do but its enough one of these players for 3/4 round picks to occasionally work to call it a success. Bealieu is trending towards failure. Wilson was better than having a 5th in the end and even though I dont like Sheary at all, hes htill more useful than a 3rd or 4th in nest years draft ( if he goes 20 goals or 40 points this year he certainly would justify spending a 3rd on him but I have my doubts he would hit on either).