OT: James Mirtle and Kyle Dubas

[TheTotalPackage]

Am I the only one who finds Mirtle insufferable? I don't care for The Athletic business model or content as it is, and him leading the ship certainly disways me further.

 

[AlmightyPO]

Yeah I don't know. I remember that he put out an article before the draft that felt very pro-Dubas, anti-Hunter. It was right after the GM decision had been made. That's the only time I've felt that Mirtle has been anything but professional. If you listen to him or read his articles, he'd give you the impression that we are a top team with quite a bit of issues. That's pretty much exactly what we are.

I agree.

If anything I feel many of the writers at the Athletic are hesitant to post anything overly negative or critical about the team until they see how the Leafs look in the playoffs. They acknowledge the results haven't been there for a while but generally have tip-toed around how bad it has actually been. It seems like they are saving that ammo for if we have a lackluster performance in the playoffs as at that point there is no excuses for not showing up.

 

[Duke Silver]

About 2.5M per season minimum, 4 when you factor in the 5 year term. 10.5 for Tavares (Toews), 10.5 for Matthews on 8 year term, 9Mx5(Eichel+ and 5 year term), 6 for Nylander (Ehlers).

The salary cap increases each year. If that didn’t matter, no one would be making more than $8.7M.

Regardless, even with this (bad) analysis at hand, you’re complaining about one Connor Brown’s worth of cap space.

 

[justafan22]

I agree.

If anything I feel many of the writers at the Athletic are hesitant to post anything overly negative or critical about the team until they see how the Leafs look in the playoffs. They acknowledge the results haven't been there for a while but generally have tip-toed around how bad it has actually been. It seems like they are saving that ammo for if we have a lackluster performance in the playoffs as at that point there is no excuses for not showing up.

It's kinda funny that it was the complete opposite before hand

 

[Americanadian]

The salary cap increases each year. If that didn’t matter, no one would be making more than $8.7M.

Regardless, even with this (bad) analysis at hand, you’re complaining about one Connor Brown’s worth of cap space.

I understand cap %. Stamkos 5 year deal would be 9.24M on today’s cap hence Matthews. Eichel’s contract started last season so the cap % bump would be 10.6M. Ehlers deal kicked in this season therefore cap % doesn’t matter. Tavares to Toews was a bit of a stretch but I don’t believe comparing him to Kopitar is a stretch who started his 8 year deal at 10M 2 seasons ago. If you take into account term it’s the difference between keeping Brown vs. keeping Gardiner at 6M.

 

[4thline]

I understand cap %. Stamkos 5 year deal would be 9.24M on today’s cap hence Matthews. Eichel’s contract started last season so the cap % bump would be 10.6M. Ehlers deal kicked in this season therefore cap % doesn’t matter. Tavares to Toews was a bit of a stretch but I don’t believe comparing him to Kopitar is a stretch who started his 8 year deal at 10M 2 seasons ago. If you take into account term it’s the difference between keeping Brown vs. keeping Gardiner at 6M.

If you ignore the Tampa discount (seems to be atleast ~15%) your expectations are going to be out of whack

 

[Americanadian]

If you ignore the Tampa discount (seems to be atleast ~15%) your expectations are going to be out of whack

Was the Tampa discount in effect when Stamkos signed out of ELC in 2011? We also shouldn’t discount quality GM work to a Tampa discount. Look at Calgary’s cap structure.

 

[4thline]

Was the Tampa discount in effect when Stamkos signed out of ELC in 2011? We also shouldn’t discount quality GM work to a Tampa discount. Look at Calgary’s cap structure.

Dunno. Did Stamkos' back to back 95/91 point, 45 and 50 goal seasons deserve less than 80% of Malkin's 85/106 point 33 and 47 goal (while older) cap percentage?

 

[Menzinger]

Tampa definitely gets a discount in terms of the tax issue - and Stamkos definitely could have gotten more money on the open market.

It’s nice when players give the GM a discount but it’s not something that should or can be expected.

Tampa has low media scrutiny, some of the best weather in the league, and an owner willing to spend to be competitive. That’s a great formula to get guys to want to spend their careers there. Unfortunately for the Leafs they have lousy weathers and high media focus to contend with.

 

[Americanadian]

Dunno. Did Stamkos' back to back 95/91 point, 45 and 50 goal seasons deserve less than 80% of Malkin's 85/106 point 33 and 47 goal (while older) cap percentage?

Dunno. Did Stamkos' back to back 95/91 point, 45 and 50 goal seasons deserve less than 80% of Malkin's 85/106 point 33 and 47 goal (while older) cap percentage?

That’s a fair assessment. I believe Malkin was the outlier rather than Stamkos due to him match Crosby’s AAV.

 

[4thline]

That’s a fair assessment. I believe Malkin was the outlier rather than Stamkos due to him match Crosby’s AAV.

The Crosby cap means Malkin got less than he probably should have, widening a gap that's already too wide

 

[Americanadian]

The Crosby cap means Malkin got less than he probably should have, widening a gap that's already too wide

Vise versa - more than he should have due to belief that he is Crosby.

 

[Tak7]

A bit late to this conversation, but I find Mirtle to be very balanced and fair with his coverage of the Leafs.

He was one of the first / earliest media members to suggest the Leafs play in the first half of the season was predicated on high PDO and wouldn't be sustainable.

I find it weird that fans "hate" on a specific member of the media - just ignore him? Especially if it's Mirtle? All of his content is behind a (really good value) pay-wall, making it even easier to push to one side and ignore.

 

[Duke Silver]

I understand cap %. Stamkos 5 year deal would be 9.24M on today’s cap hence Matthews. Eichel’s contract started last season so the cap % bump would be 10.6M. Ehlers deal kicked in this season therefore cap % doesn’t matter. Tavares to Toews was a bit of a stretch but I don’t believe comparing him to Kopitar is a stretch who started his 8 year deal at 10M 2 seasons ago. If you take into account term it’s the difference between keeping Brown vs. keeping Gardiner at 6M.

Stamkos's 5-year deal was signed almost 8 years ago under a different CBA and a different climate for 2nd contracts. Matthews' deal is really unique and has no real recent comparison at the moment, but this summer should help provide provide better context as we see what the remaining RFA crop signs for. AAV and Cap Hit %-wise, he's between Eichel and McDavid, where he belongs.

Ehlers' deal was signed between Year 2 and 3 of his ELC, before it was known just how much the Vegas expansion would impact salary cap and before he put up a 2nd-straight 60-point season. It's an awful deal for him, and he should fire his agent. This is a bad comparable for Nylander's contract.

Kopitar never hit the open market, meaning there weren't competing bids dragging up his ask. Plus his signing cap hit % is even HIGHER than Tavares' or Matthews' was.

If Matthews was making $11.634 for 8 years instead of 5, would you be okay with that average annual valuation?

 

[Sypher04]

When the contract kicks in is never how these are compared. It's cap percentage at signing date. Ipso facto, Ehlers % was for between year 2 and 3, not what it would be now

Also Stamkos has pretty much publicly stated he signed for less in Tampa because the taxes are favourable

 

[Throw More Waffles]

If you ignore the Tampa discount (seems to be atleast ~15%) your expectations are going to be out of whack

I want a gm that can create the “Toronto discount”, and not the “Toronto overpayment”.
Maybe a rookie wasn’t such a good idea .

 

[Stephen]

Am I the only one who finds Mirtle insufferable? I don't care for The Athletic business model or content as it is, and him leading the ship certainly disways me further.

I find the advanced stats crowd's propensity for throwing out condescending hot takes and the use of the terms like "narratives" to be insufferable. When they can't quantify things they dismiss them and when they're wrong they just gloss over it.

 

[Americanadian]

Stamkos's 5-year deal was signed almost 8 years ago under a different CBA and a different climate for 2nd contracts. Matthews' deal is really unique and has no real recent comparison at the moment, but this summer should help provide provide better context as we see what the remaining RFA crop signs for. AAV and Cap Hit %-wise, he's between Eichel and McDavid, where he belongs.

Ehlers' deal was signed between Year 2 and 3 of his ELC, before it was known just how much the Vegas expansion would impact salary cap and before he put up a 2nd-straight 60-point season. It's an awful deal for him, and he should fire his agent. This is a bad comparable for Nylander's contract.

Kopitar never hit the open market, meaning there weren't competing bids dragging up his ask. Plus his signing cap hit % is even HIGHER than Tavares' or Matthews' was.

If Matthews was making $11.634 for 8 years instead of 5, would you be okay with that average annual valuation?

1. I agree, Stamkos was a long time ago but he's the only reasonable comparison. You can't throw out the closest comparison because it's 8 years old. What changed in the last CBA in terms of 5 year contracts?

2. As bad as you may think Ehlers contract was I think it was fair and it fits in line with Pastrnak and Gaudreau and Forsberg. Maybe while he questions his agent Leafs fans can question our GM.

3. Kopitar signed for UFA years just like Tavares, his cap hit % is irrelevant to Matthews at 5 years (4 of them RFA). At the time of signing he became the third highest paid player in the league - do you really think he didn't leverage going to market to get more money?Fun fact: only 3 players in the salary cap era have earned over 10M AAV without winning a major award or stanley cup and 2 of them currently play for the Leafs (potentially soon to be 3).

4. Yes. I wouldn't love it but I wouldn't mind it.

 

[Canadian Finn]

I want a gm that can create the “Toronto discount”, and not the “Toronto overpayment”.
Maybe a rookie wasn’t such a good idea .

An unproven millennial overpaying unproven millennial's.

a recipe for success.

what could go wrong?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

An unproven millennial overpaying unproven millennial's.

a recipe for success.

what could go wrong?

If I'm as right as I think I am about Dubas' dramatic overpayments destroying the teams future depth, preventing us from ever becoming truely "elite", then Shanahan has to own up to a lot of this as well.

This year is arguably the most important year for a leaf gm since.... honestly when? 50 years? When else has there been so much at stake on just one season? The entire future of this team GREATLY depended on getting our elite young core signed to fair contracts. And Dubas has COMPLETELY f***ed that up.

Why the hell did Shanahan think this was a good year to experiment with a rookie gm? Maybe 3 seasons ago. Sure. But THIS season?

 

[Canadian Finn]

the element of an unproven, inexperienced person overpaying unproven, inexperienced talent of equal (or close to it) age is extremely common in today's workforce.

in actuality, seeing it occur all over the business world makes me happy to know it happens in the rich sports world as well.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

the element of an unproven, inexperienced person overpaying unproven, inexperienced talent of equal (or close to it) age is extremely common in today's workforce.

in actuality, seeing it occur all over the business world makes me happy to know it happens in the rich sports world as well.

Well... it happens to the LEAFS. Unclear if it happens in the actual real sports world though.

 

[Duke Silver]

1. I agree, Stamkos was a long time ago but he's the only reasonable comparison. You can't throw out the closest comparison because it's 8 years old. What changed in the last CBA in terms of 5 year contracts?

2. As bad as you may think Ehlers contract was I think it was fair and it fits in line with Pastrnak and Gaudreau and Forsberg. Maybe while he questions his agent Leafs fans can question our GM.

3. Kopitar signed for UFA years just like Tavares, his cap hit % is irrelevant to Matthews at 5 years (4 of them RFA). At the time of signing he became the third highest paid player in the league - do you really think he didn't leverage going to market to get more money?Fun fact: only 3 players in the salary cap era have earned over 10M AAV without winning a major award or stanley cup and 2 of them currently play for the Leafs (potentially soon to be 3).

4. Yes. I wouldn't love it but I wouldn't mind it.

1. I can throw out the closest comparable (which it isn't) if the criteria doesn't match (which it doesn't). There's no sense in shoehorning bad comparisons in just for the sake of having one. Matthews' contract, for now, is a unicorn.

2. The Ehlers contract was signed under different circumstances than Nylander's. I'll put it to you this way: if Ehlers had waited until after Year 3 of his ELC, and had put up a second-straight 60-point season, do you think he still would have signed for $6m per? He signed with less track record to his name at a time when the cap bump from Vegas was unknown. His value is deflated due to his impatience.

Pastrnak had extremely similar ELC stats to Nylander with a better platform year, and his contract adjusted for 2018-19 was $7.07M, so Nylander's AAV from Years 2-6 will come in underneath that adjustment. The most you could reasonably argue Nylander is overpaid by is maybe $200-$250k per year, based on his comparables.

3. Players shouldn't be paid based on team trophies like Stanley Cups. Toews, for example, signed a legacy-based contract that is going to negatively impact Chicago's plans for years, getting continuously worse. Kopitar's deal didn't look too great this year, either. Players should be paid based on production, and Matthews' production at such a young age is elite. Fun fact: as the cap continues to go up, so will the prevalence of $10M+ contracts, so we need to wrap our heads around a whole bunch of non-top-5 players making 8 figures.

4. So if you'd be fine with/wouldn't mind Matthews making $11.634M next year on an 8-year contract, why aren't you fine with Matthews making $11.634M next year on a 5-year contract? The impact on next year's cap, which you seem to have issues with, is the same. The truth is that an 8-year contract was never going to be at that level, though, with the cap continuing to climb and dragging annual salaries up. Very soon we will see worse players making more than McDavid.

So far we've established that you want all of our players to be on bargain bin deals, think Tavares should be getting less than Kopitar's cap hit %, think Nylander is overpaid by ~$1M because of Ehlers' short-sighted decision, and Matthews is overpaid by ~$2M by comparing him to a Stamkos deal signed under a different CBA and different RFA climate 8 years ago.

The overarching issue that we're not talking about here is this: paying your high-end talent handsomely isn't what kills you: it's overpaying your low-end talent. The collective $13.35M we're going to be paying Marleau/Zaitsev/Brown next year is what's going to prevent us from keeping Gardiner, and is what puts us in a bind with Kapanen/Johnsson. Our high-end talent shouldn't have to take less because we've overpaid players at the bottom of our roster.

 

[darrylsittler27]

I want a gm that can create the “Toronto discount”, and not the “Toronto overpayment”.
Maybe a rookie wasn’t such a good idea .

I have to agree. The 5 years with Mathews includes a strike year.

 

[hector morrison]

I want a gm that can create the “Toronto discount”, and not the “Toronto overpayment”.
Maybe a rookie wasn’t such a good idea .

Right..."We are going to pay you less than other teams are willing ,cuz ,you know we're the great Leafs"....seriously?