James Creighton Division Semi Finals - Bolshoy Ballet (2) vs Canadian Soo Marlboros (3)

[ImporterExporter]

Bolshoy Ballet (2)


Tommy Ivan

George Hay - Ted Kennedy (C) - Patrick Kane
Woody Dumart - Bill Cowley - Milan Hejduk
Taylor Hall - Marty Walsh - Johnny Peirson
Chris Drury - Fleming Mackell - Andy Hebenton

Lionel Hitchman (A) - Eddie Shore
Glen Harmon - Red Dutton (A)
Ľubomír Višňovský - Charlie Huddy

Spares: Jimmy Roberts, Andrew Ladd, Jaccob Slavin

Bernie Parent
Riley Hern

PP1:
Walsh
Hay - Cowley - Kane
Shore

PP2:
Hejduk - Kennedy - Hall
Višňovský - Huddy

PK1: Dumart - Mackell - Hitchman - Shore
PK2: Kennedy - Drury - Harmon - Dutton

Player	ES	PP	PK	Total
Hay	15	5		20
Kennedy	15	2	3	20
Kane	15	5		20
Dumart	14		3	17
Cowley	14	5		19
Hejduk	14	2		16
Hall	10	2		12
Walsh	10	5		15
Peirson	10			10
Drury	8		3	11
Mackell	8		4	12
Hebenton	8			8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Player	ES	PP	PK	Total
Shore	18	5	4	27
Hitchman	18		4	22
Harmon	16		3	19
Dutton	16		3	19
Visnovsky	12	2		14
Huddy	12	2		14

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

VS



The Canadian Soo Marlboros (3)

Coach: Karel Gut
Assistant coach: Jan Starsi

Frank Foyston - Marty Barry - Andy Bathgate
Herbie Lewis - Marcel Dionne - Jimmy Ward
Harry Watson - Murray Oliver - Danny Gare (A)
Percy Galbraith - Troy Murray - Bruce MacGregor
Alexander Almetov


Babe Pratt - Ray Bourque (C)
Barry Beck (A) - Bob Armstrong
Phil Russell - Karel Gut
Allan "Eagle Eye" Cameron

Percy LeSueur
Miikka Kiprusoff



PP1: Marcel Dionne - Marty Barry - Andy Bathgate - Babe Pratt - Ray Bourque
PP2: Harry Watson - Danny Gare - Frank Foyston - Barry Beck - Karel Gut

PK1: Percy Galbraith - Murray Oliver - Barry Beck - Ray Bourque
PK2: Troy Murray - Bruce MacGregor - Phil Russell - Bob Armstrong

VsX, best 7 years:

Andy Bathgate	101.1
Marty Barry	89.6
Frank Foyston	N/A
Marcel Dionne	103.3
Herbie Lewis	75.0
Jimmy Ward	68.5
Murray Oliver	64.0 (ES VsX = 51)
Harry Watson	58.9
Danny Gare	61.1 (ES VsX = 46)
Ray Bourque	75.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Estimated min per game, forwards

	ES TOI	PP TOI	PK TOI	Total TOI
Andy Bathgate	15	4		19
Marty Barry	15	4		19
Frank Foyston	15	3		18
Marcel Dionne	14	4		18
Herbie Lewis	14			14
Jimmy Ward	14			14
Harry Watson	13	3		16
Murray Oliver	13		4	17
Danny Gare	13	3		16
Percy Galbraith	4		4	8
Troy Murray	4		3	7
Bruce MacGregor	4		3	7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Estimated min per game, defencemen

	ES TOI	PP TOI	PK TOI	Total TOI
Ray Bourque	19	4	4	27
Babe Pratt	17*	4		21
Barry Beck	18*	3	4	25
Bob Armstrong	16		3	19
Karel Gut	11	3		14
Phil Russell	11		3	14

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

* Beck will take some Pratt's shifts in ES​

Click to read more...

 

[Habsfan18]

This is a series I am very much looking forward to and I can see it going 7 games for sure. Interesting matchup.

 

[Namba 17]

Congratulations, Sprague, your 2nd place was well-deserved.
I'll try yo present my thoughts later, when I'll have some time.

 

[Namba 17]

I wrote big post and it disappeared.
So, I'll try to redo, but be short.

First lines
George Hay - Ted Kennedy (C) - Patrick Kane
vs
Frank Foyston - Marty Barry - Andy Bathgate

The biggest problem for me is to compare Hay and Foyston - I'm not an expert of NA leagues of the beginning of the XX century. My impression is that they were about equal defensively, but Foyston was better offensively and better player overall.
Kennedy - Kane vs Barry - Bathgate.
Kennedy is the best defensive player here by far. Kane and Bathgate are about equally bad defensively.
Kennedy's VsX is 78.8, Kane is 92.9, TOTAL 171.9
Barry is 89.6, Bathgate is 101.1 TOTAL 190.7
My line is not liability defensively (see discussion in ATD draft summary thread), but you have an advantage in defense.
I have huge advantage in offense. Not only VxV total, but my offensive threats distribution is very well balanced.
Bathgate is the best players in our 1st lines.
Resume.
You have advantage on defense. I have huge advantage on offense. Based on the statement, that 1st line main task is to score goals I think, that my 1st line is better.

 

[Namba 17]

Second lines
Woody Dumart - Bill Cowley - Milan Hejduk
vs
Herbie Lewis - Marcel Dionne - Jimmy Ward
Defensive liabilities: Dionne, Cowley, Hejduk.
Dumart is the best defensive player, but he is the only one in your line, while I have two, but lesser defensive players. Defensively it's a wash.
I think, that one Dumart for backcheck, forecheck and toughguy duties is a little bit much. I have two players for it and I think, that my line is a little more balanced because of it.
Offence.
Dumart 72.7, Cowley 97.0, Hejduk 73.1 TOTAL 242.2
Lewis 75.0, Dionne 103.3, Ward 68.5 TOTAL 246.8
Almost equal, little my advantage.
Also, Dionne is the best player here.
Resume. My line is a little bit more balanced and a little bit better offensively.
I see my little advantage.

 

[Namba 17]

Third lines
Taylor Hall - Marty Walsh - Johnny Peirson
vs
Harry Watson - Murray Oliver - Danny Gare (A)

Different lines, hard to compare. Walsh would have been great, if his career were longer. Hall is the best offensive player here, but the worst defensive. I don't have VsX numbers for Peirson. His goals VsX is 32.2. For comparison: Watson is 35.4, Gare is 35.7
Oliver's goal-scoring is weak, but his assists VsX is 53.0
Hall has assists VsX 47.0, goals 31.9
Hall's VsX is 71.8
Watson 58.9, Oliver 64.0, Gare 61.1
And I have very hard time estimating Walsh. He seems to be very good goal-scorer with good to very good defense.
So, I think, I have an advantage on defense. Every my player is at least good defensively, while Hall is not.
I think that I have an advantage in grit and physical play.
As for offense... Well, Peirson seems to me as a weak link in everything - defense, offense, grit, power etc. Hall-Walsh combo is very good for a third line though. The main mystery here - what is Walsh, how good his offensive numbers would be in VsX system.
I don't know, TBO.
I'll leave it like that.

 

[Namba 17]

Fourth lines.
Chris Drury - Fleming Mackell - Andy Hebenton
vs
Percy Galbraith - Troy Murray - Bruce MacGregor

Mackell stands out here clearly as by far the best player, but his wingers are so nothing special, that it's even confusing. At least my wingers can defend. I don't know what Mackell can do with such wingers, both seem to be more spares, than main roster ATD players.
I think. my line is better.

 

[Namba 17]

First pairs
Lionel Hitchman (A) - Eddie Shore
vs
Babe Pratt - Ray Bourque (C)

Hitchman is sufficiently better than Pratt defensively and sufficiently worse than Pratt offensively.
I don't see much difference as #2 D between them - both are at the same level more or less.
Bourque is just >> Shore.
I don't see decisive defensive advantage from your part, considering, that Shore was not that good defensively and Bourque was and considering Shore' bad temper that can course a lot of damage to his team.
Offensively it's huge my advantage. Bourque has amazing 75.5 VsX, wich is miles better than anything Shore can offer, and Pratt advantage over Hitchman is even bigger.
My huge advantage.

 

[Namba 17]

Glen Harmon - Red Dutton (A)
vs
Barry Beck (A) - Bob Armstrong
Dutton stands out. You have an advantage here

 

[Namba 17]

Ľubomír Višňovský - Charlie Huddy
vs
Phil Russell - Karel Gut
Gut was a star of his time and one of the best d of the Czech team in history. Others are more or less on the same level.
My advantage here.

 

[Namba 17]

Bernie Parent
Riley Hern
vs
Percy LeSueur
Miikka Kiprusoff

The only thing againt LeSueur is his time. He was considered the best goalie of his time, though. Parent was the best for two years and that was it. He was good for the rest of his career, but without that 2 years he is not even in the conversation. You may call me biased and all that, but I don't see much difference between Parent and LeSueur. And not because Lesueur is mine and Parent is not, but because I really fill that way. And my backup is way better.

 

[Namba 17]

PP1:
Walsh
Hay - Cowley - Kane
Shore

vs
PP1: Marcel Dionne - Marty Barry - Andy Bathgate - Babe Pratt - Ray Bourque

Mine is way better. Walsh and Hay are not on the level of other players.

Hejduk - Kennedy - Hall
Višňovský - Huddy

vs

PP2: Harry Watson - Danny Gare - Frank Foyston - Barry Beck - Karel Gut

Gut is much better D than any of yours, the same for Beck.
You have serious advantage in F though.

Your PP2 is better

 

[Namba 17]

PK1: Dumart - Mackell - Hitchman - Shore
PK2: Kennedy - Drury - Harmon - Dutton

vs

PK1: Percy Galbraith - Murray Oliver - Barry Beck - Ray Bourque
PK2: Troy Murray - Bruce MacGregor - Phil Russell - Bob Armstrong

I'd call it a wash.

 

[Namba 17]

General thoughts.

1. Both Bolshoy Ballet' key D in each pair are their most penalized players (Shore, Dutton). This decreases defensive value of Bolshoy' D AND gives my excellent PP1 great chance to win series for me.

2. My D are too big for Bolshoy' F. Yes, Bolshoy has Kennedy on the 1st line and Dumart on the 2nd line and Walsh liked to play tough as well, but they are not huge and not overly physical. But I have 4 hard-hitting monsters in Pratt, Beck, Armstrong and Russell and Ray Bourque is not soft player at all. Wich is more, 3 of them are really monsters - Pratt is 6-3, 212, Beck is 6-3, 216 and Russell is 6-2, 205. Bourque is 5-11, 219 and Armstrong is 6-1, 190. Also interesting, that all my biggest D are LD and will play against Bolshoy' main goal-scoring threats in Kane and Hejduk (comparatively small and soft players). Each Bolshoy' line has only one puck-retriever and (considering, that that's their main defensive F) they will be deathly tired up to the middle of the series.

3. I have significant firepower advantage. My first line is seriously better offensively, my second line is slightly better offensively and even if Bolshoy' 3d line is better offensively (which is questionable) 3d line will play much less time to be able to turn table. Add here my huge advantage of my 1st pair defensemen' offence. My team will outscore his team.

4. Bolshoy' 1st line is better defensively. 2d, 3d and 4th my lines are better defensively.

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

Bernie Parent
Riley Hern
vs
Percy LeSueur
Miikka Kiprusoff

The only thing againt LeSueur is his time. He was considered the best goalie of his time, though. Parent was the best for two years and that was it. He was good for the rest of his career, but without that 2 years he is not even in the conversation. You may call me biased and all that, but I don't see much difference between Parent and LeSueur.

Every now-and-then, I encounter a statement so outré that I wonder if, it were placed in the form of a motion, the motion might die for lack of a second.

The idea the Percy LeSueur is anywhere near level-pegging with Bernie Parent, in a Playoff Matchup, is probably the most outrageous thing I've read this entire draft.

Does anyone else out there share this opinion? I'd really be interested...

 

[ImporterExporter]

Every now-and-then, I encounter a statement so outré that I wonder if, it were placed in the form of a motion, the motion might die for lack of a second.

The idea the Percy LeSueur is anywhere near level-pegging with Bernie Parent, in a Playoff Matchup, is probably the most outrageous thing I've read this entire draft.

Does anyone else out there share this opinion? I'd really be interested...

We've had a few exchanges on Parent before and while I think he's overrated in an all time sense because his record is so centered around 2 seasons, Parent's playoff record is very strong so the advantage would indeed be squarely with Bolshoy in this match up.

 

[Habsfan18]

I would say that the only goaltender in history to have an equally or more dominant multi-year (as in more than one) stretch than Bernie Parent is Dominik Hasek.

Parent was unreal and almost unbeatable from ‘73 to ‘75. Sure, his peak didn’t last long but it’s still mighty impressive.

I can see what Namba was trying to point out though regarding LeSueur’s longevity at the top. But Parent certainly gives his club an edge in a playoff matchup, strictly speaking from a goaltending standpoint.

 

[Namba 17]

I got it - Giguere >>> Hasek.
Who care about 7 years, career and all that? Peak is all what matters.

 

[Namba 17]

Brett Hull >>> Bobby Hull

 

[Namba 17]

Fedorov >>> Mikita

 

[Namba 17]

Lindros >>> Crosby

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

As my late, great Father used to say: "please stop while you're only a little bit behind."

Regrettable thing is- there are good reasons to believe that Soo will be intensely competitive and could well prevail in a 7-game-series.

To claim that Percy LeSueur would battle Playoff Parent to a standstill is not an assertion that's likely to add to your chances here. Until today, I've never heard that position staked by anybody, ever.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I got it - Giguere >>> Hasek.
Who care about 7 years, career and all that? Peak is all what matters.

Not at all sir. You did a fantastic job with your roster. Lesueur was one of the best early era goalies, especially before the emergence of Vezina and Benedict. I read a good bit on him in my research of Green/Shore/Lake and came away more impressed as I wasn't overly familiar with Lesueur before this year. It's just that Parent's big calling card is what he did in the playoffs for the early to mid 70's Flyers.

As CTP said above, you have a roster capable of winning this series sir. Don't be discouraged at all.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'd also like to add, Namba does deserve praise for his strong participation. The only way you improve here is to engage and take the good with the bad. I still make my share of "mistakes". And it's hard to do that if you don't show up for the post draft processes when evaluations and arguments are shared back and forth. And Namba has been among the most active folks this year.

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

I wrote big post and it disappeared.
So, I'll try to redo, but be short.

First lines
George Hay - Ted Kennedy (C) - Patrick Kane
vs
Frank Foyston - Marty Barry - Andy Bathgate

The biggest problem for me is to compare Hay and Foyston - I'm not an expert of NA leagues of the beginning of the XX century. My impression is that they were about equal defensively, but Foyston was better offensively and better player overall.
Kennedy - Kane vs Barry - Bathgate.
Kennedy is the best defensive player here by far. Kane and Bathgate are about equally bad defensively.
Kennedy's VsX is 78.8, Kane is 92.9, TOTAL 171.9
Barry is 89.6, Bathgate is 101.1 TOTAL 190.7
My line is not liability defensively (see discussion in ATD draft summary thread), but you have an advantage in defense.
I have huge advantage in offense. Not only VxV total, but my offensive threats distribution is very well balanced.
Bathgate is the best players in our 1st lines.
Resume.
You have advantage on defense. I have huge advantage on offense. Based on the statement, that 1st line main task is to score goals I think, that my 1st line is better.

Foyston is definitely superior to Hay. I'm not going to lie, your line is better on paper, in the regular season at least. We're now in the playoffs though, and playoff performance must be factored into the conversation. I'll come right out and say that Hay is nothing special in this department, mainly due to a lack of opportunity, but we can't reward someone for something they haven't done. However, Kennedy and Kane are arguably the best, and if not, top-3 best playoff performers of their generation. On the playoff VsX scale, Kennedy is 10th, while Kane is 34th. Barry is 37th, while Bathgate's playoff resume is as strong as Hay's, meaning non existent. Foyston does not appear on the scale, but he was an excellent playoff performer too. In terms of playoff resumes, I'd rank them as such: Kennedy, Kane, Foyston, Barry, Bathgate, Hay. And herein lies the problem, your best player (Bathgate) has the 2nd worst playoff resume. Can Foyston and Barry really elevate Bathgate's play to counter the super clutchness of Kane and Kennedy?

Second lines
Woody Dumart - Bill Cowley - Milan Hejduk
vs
Herbie Lewis - Marcel Dionne - Jimmy Ward
Defensive liabilities: Dionne, Cowley, Hejduk.
Dumart is the best defensive player, but he is the only one in your line, while I have two, but lesser defensive players. Defensively it's a wash.
I think, that one Dumart for backcheck, forecheck and toughguy duties is a little bit much. I have two players for it and I think, that my line is a little more balanced because of it.
Offence.
Dumart 72.7, Cowley 97.0, Hejduk 73.1 TOTAL 242.2
Lewis 75.0, Dionne 103.3, Ward 68.5 TOTAL 246.8
Almost equal, little my advantage.
Also, Dionne is the best player here.
Resume. My line is a little bit more balanced and a little bit better offensively.
I see my little advantage.

Dionne is certainly the best player on paper here. But, once again, your biggest offensive threat is not a good playoff performer at all, in fact, he or Ward is the worst of the six here. Honestly, none of the players on our second lines are standout playoff performers. Cowley did lead the 1939 playoffs in scoring, but apart from that, there's not much. To sum it up, my best player is the best playoff performer out of this mediocre group, while your best player is arguably the worst. If I had Dionne, I would make sure that I insulated him with extremely good playoff performers, which you did to a certain degree with Bathgate. But, Lewis and Ward just don't have the playoff pedigree.

Third lines
Taylor Hall - Marty Walsh - Johnny Peirson
vs
Harry Watson - Murray Oliver - Danny Gare (A)

Different lines, hard to compare. Walsh would have been great, if his career were longer. Hall is the best offensive player here, but the worst defensive. I don't have VsX numbers for Peirson. His goals VsX is 32.2. For comparison: Watson is 35.4, Gare is 35.7
Oliver's goal-scoring is weak, but his assists VsX is 53.0
Hall has assists VsX 47.0, goals 31.9
Hall's VsX is 71.8
Watson 58.9, Oliver 64.0, Gare 61.1
And I have very hard time estimating Walsh. He seems to be very good goal-scorer with good to very good defense.
So, I think, I have an advantage on defense. Every my player is at least good defensively, while Hall is not.
I think that I have an advantage in grit and physical play.
As for offense... Well, Peirson seems to me as a weak link in everything - defense, offense, grit, power etc. Hall-Walsh combo is very good for a third line though. The main mystery here - what is Walsh, how good his offensive numbers would be in VsX system.
I don't know, TBO.
I'll leave it like that.

Peirson is a jack of all trades, master of none player. His VsX is 64.1.

Fourth lines.
Chris Drury - Fleming Mackell - Andy Hebenton
vs
Percy Galbraith - Troy Murray - Bruce MacGregor

Mackell stands out here clearly as by far the best player, but his wingers are so nothing special, that it's even confusing. At least my wingers can defend. I don't know what Mackell can do with such wingers, both seem to be more spares, than main roster ATD players.
I think. my line is better.

My wingers can also defend. You or anyone should check out Drury and Hebenton's bios. Their two way games are extensively praised, so not just one or two quotes here and there. Your line might be better defensively, but they are a non threat offensively, whereas my line can at least score once in a while.

My biggest concern with Soo is that their two best players are not very good playoff performers while my two best (Kennedy and Kane) are absolute monsters in the playoffs.