In all fairness, it's actually dropped faster than I thought it would, as I thought he might end the season somewhere around there (and I still think it will, it just regressed faster than I thought it might). His total on the season sits at 87.1%, and I strongly suspect that will continue to drop to the low 80s by seasons end.
For what it's worth (insert self tire pumping comment here):
In Voracek's first 16 games, he had 26 points. I predicted he would score roughly an additional 51 points in his final 66 games (link).
At that point in time, Voracek and his linemates were averaging 35.8 shots on net every 60 minutes of play. I thought that was reasonable and his season-ending total would be +/- 1 shot from that. Currently sitting at 32.87 shots/60min -- it dropped a lot. This would be the 2nd lowest shot rate his team has seen since his rookie year.
Also at that point in time, Voracek's on-ice sh% was 12.21%; I predicted it would drop to his 3-year average of ~9.3%. It now sits at 9.42%. Booyeah
Again, at that point in time, Voracek had a point on every single goal the Flyers scored with him on the ice (15 out of 15, or an IPP of 100%). I predicted it would end up somewhere around 70-80%, as most top-6 forwards do. Since that post, Voracek has 12 points on 16 5v5 goals (75%). Booyeah again
I predicted he would score ~33 more points at 5v5, or roughly 0.5ppg. Since then he has scored 16 points in 27 games (0.59ppg)... That's good enough for the girls I go out with!
I also predicted he would score ~15-20 points on the powerplay for the rest of the season; he has 10 powerplay points in 27 games with 39 games remaining. His powerplay production has been very good and is the main reason Voracek is ~0.2ppg higher than I thought he would be at this point.
Overall, **** yeah, math!
For what it's worth (insert self tire pumping comment here):
In Voracek's first 16 games, he had 26 points. I predicted he would score roughly an additional 51 points in his final 66 games (link).
At that point in time, Voracek and his linemates were averaging 35.8 shots on net every 60 minutes of play. I thought that was reasonable and his season-ending total would be +/- 1 shot from that. Currently sitting at 32.87 shots/60min -- it dropped a lot. This would be the 2nd lowest shot rate his team has seen since his rookie year.
Also at that point in time, Voracek's on-ice sh% was 12.21%; I predicted it would drop to his 3-year average of ~9.3%. It now sits at 9.42%. Booyeah
Again, at that point in time, Voracek had a point on every single goal the Flyers scored with him on the ice (15 out of 15, or an IPP of 100%). I predicted it would end up somewhere around 70-80%, as most top-6 forwards do. Since that post, Voracek has 12 points on 16 5v5 goals (75%). Booyeah again
I predicted he would score ~33 more points at 5v5, or roughly 0.5ppg. Since then he has scored 16 points in 27 games (0.59ppg)... That's good enough for the girls I go out with!
I also predicted he would score ~15-20 points on the powerplay for the rest of the season; he has 10 powerplay points in 27 games with 39 games remaining. His powerplay production has been very good and is the main reason Voracek is ~0.2ppg higher than I thought he would be at this point.
Overall, **** yeah, math!
edit: regarding my last comment in that previous post; I think Voracek will be a ~68-73pt player next season.
I still think that my prediction is closer than yours and I wouldn't be surprised if he hit 84-85 points.
The salt is real... It's just numbers, calm down chief.Wow! It's as if no one else thought Voracek would have slowed down from that 133 point pace. You must have been blasted for that opinion!
Yes. I'm attempting to prove that the methodology is functional, rather than just eyeballing it and saying "yeah, PPG player, cool".
Where did I put Voracek down? I'm a big fan of his.
Numbers that no one denied, despite your post having a heavy implication that you were alone in this judgment. You weren't.
Unless Voracek only puts up 25 points in the remaining 39 games, your methodology was less than outstanding.
The salt is real? As of right now, your prediction isn't even correct unless you want to say your correct that he slowed down from a 133 point pace, in which case, nobody needed math to know that.
That's fine, I'm all for using math to determine stats and future outcomes but it's not like you were on an island with your prediction. If everyone else was insisting that he would break 100 this year and we were all way off and your prediction is now dead on, that would be a good reason to bump reference an old post and pat yourself on the back.
When you said it two months ago, nobody said anything other than that we agree with you but think it will be slightly higher. Coming in and starting your post with "For what it's worth (insert self tire pumping comment here)" and then going on to say "booyah
" multiple times and "**** yeah, math!" to something we all agreed with just makes you look like a silly one-upper. I bet you also predicted that Seguin wouldn't finish the season with 65 goals too. Cool math.
