Jakub Voracek is the first player to score 50pts this season.

[Appleyard]

Yea, I don't think it's the same as Steen by any means. With this season and the lockout, I think he's established he can be at least a PPG type, whereas Steen was always more of a 60 point type. But even stars will have some wild shifts. I remember there was a couple years where Kovalchuk had them in Atlanta, and even Kane had a similar start last year before drying up. I know the underlying numbers suggest it's sustainable, but the league always has a funny way of "correcting" everyone's numbers in the end, and I suspect it'll happen to Voracek somewhat. It would be neat if he could push close to 100, but I just don't see it. Though, I thought he'd start to fall off after giving Crosby a run for his money in that "first to 30" thread, and here he is being he first to 50, so I guess you never know.

Yeh, I don't think he hits 100. In fact I am not sure anyone in the league will.

I think most likely Jake finishes with ~90 points.

One thing that should also help is the powerplay.

Since Giroux took over the Flyers PP and ran it from the left halfboards it has been:

2011-12: 19.7% (5th in the NHL)
2012-13: 21.6% (3rd in the NHL)
2013-14: 19.7% (8th in the NHL)
2014-15: 23.3% (5th in the NHL)

189 goals in 255 games on the PP, best in the league in that span.

So long as Giroux does not go down Jake should get around ~15 more PP points in the remaining games even if the PP cools down a few %.

Giroux has 15 more PP points than anyone in the league since the start of 2011-12, with the 2nd best P/60 after Backstrom in that time... Voracek could decide he is not playing EV any-more and just pass along the top of the PP and still pick up those points.

 

[Appleyard]

1.209 PPG is also way above his career pace. Didn't stop it from happening.

Cood streaks can happen, just like hot streaks.

Voracek has played 139 spans of 39 games braching over 3 seasons since being promoted to the Flyers first line at the start of 2011-12... here are how many points he has in those 39 game spans:

52 x1
51 x3
50 x1
49 x1
48 x7
47 x4
46 x3
45 x6
44 x4
43 x1
42 x5
41 x4
40 x3
39 x4
38 x5
37 x7
36 x4
35 x2
34 x4
33 x5
32 x5
31 x9
30 x8
29 x5
28 x3
27 x3
26 x4
25 x6
24 x4
23 x4
22 x2
21 x3
20 x3

His mean span per 39 is 35 points.
His median span per 39 is 34 points.

Only 8/139 times has he played 39 games in a row without getting the 23 points he needs for 75 points. 5.7% of the time he has not got enough.

So it is very unlikely he finishes with less than 75 points even if he cools of massively for no real, apparent reason. (considering the underlying stats are pretty favourable to him.)

And that is including data that frankly is taken from when he was an inferior player to what he is now... anyone who watches him will tell you this season he has put it all together, he has played like this for probably ~3 ten game stretches before this season since joining the Flyers... but this season he has looked great from game 1 until this moment with very few poor games.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Yeah, he and Giroux are among the tops in the league. Fantastic top-line.

If the Flyers brass can remember that defensemen are also part of the game, they'll be a great team.

 

[1865]

Voracek has played 139 spans of 39 games braching over 3 seasons since being promoted to the Flyers first line at the start of 2011-12... here are how many points he has in those 39 game spans:

52 x1
51 x3
50 x1
49 x1
48 x7
47 x4
46 x3
45 x6
44 x4
43 x1
42 x5
41 x4
40 x3
39 x4
38 x5
37 x7
36 x4
35 x2
34 x4
33 x5
32 x5
31 x9
30 x8
29 x5
28 x3
27 x3
26 x4
25 x6
24 x4
23 x4
22 x2
21 x3
20 x3

His mean span per 39 is 35 points.
His median span per 39 is 34 points.

Only 8/139 times has he played 39 games in a row without getting the 23 points he needs for 75 points. 5.7% of the time he has not got enough.

So it is very unlikely he finishes with less than 75 points even if he cools of massively for no real, apparent reason. (considering the underlying stats are pretty favourable to him.)

And that is including data that frankly is taken from when he was an inferior player to what he is now... anyone who watches him will tell you this season he has put it all together, he has played like this for probably ~3 ten game stretches before this season since joining the Flyers... but this season he has looked great from game 1 until this moment with very few poor games.

How on Earth do you even do that?

 

[Appleyard]

How on Earth do you even do that?

Pretty simple in a way and not too time consuming tbh.

Depending on the dataset (if it is comparing multiple players, one player over multiple years etc) I use SPSS or Excel, export the gamelogs into the programme then plug in formulas that give me set number of games or timespans.

It helps though timewise that I have most of the current Flyers (and some other select players on other teams actually) gamelogs since joining the Flyers saved in Excel (and the advanced stats each game with some players in the columns next to the actual gamelogs) in formats I can throw into SPSS pretty quickly if need be. All the data is on the internet already, but just nice to have it in one place.

 

[beowulf]

If Voracek keeps his current season pace (1.209 PPG) he will finish with 99 points.

If Voracek scores at the rate he did since being put on the Flyers first line to start 2012-13 (0.925) he will finish with 88 points.

If Voracek scores at the pace he has since joining the Flyers (0.833) he will finish with 85 points.

If Voracek scores at his career pace (0.697) he will finish with 79 points.

If Voracek scores at his career pace before this season (0.650) he will finish with 77 points.

I think the most likely one will be the second option, 88 points or there about. I don't see a huge drop off from him.

 

[1865]

Pretty simple in a way and not too time consuming tbh.

Depending on the dataset (if it is comparing multiple players, one player over multiple years etc) I use SPSS or Excel, export the gamelogs into the programme then plug in formulas that give me set number of games or timespans.

It helps though timewise that I have most of the current Flyers (and some other select players on other teams actually) gamelogs since joining the Flyers saved and the advanced stats each game with some players in the columns next to the actual gamelogs. All the data is on the internet already, but just nice to have it in one place.

You lost me at 'dataset', but i am in awe of your statistical ability.

 

[Protest]

Pretty simple in a way and not too time consuming tbh.

Depending on the dataset (if it is comparing multiple players, one player over multiple years etc) I use SPSS or Excel, export the gamelogs into the programme then plug in formulas that give me set number of games or timespans.

It helps though timewise that I have most of the current Flyers (and some other select players on other teams actually) gamelogs since joining the Flyers saved in Excel (and the advanced stats each game with some players in the columns next to the actual gamelogs) in formats I can throw into SPSS pretty quickly if need be. All the data is on the internet already, but just nice to have it in one place.

congratulations, you're a bigger geek than me!

 

[Appleyard]

You lost me at 'dataset', but i am in awe of your statistical ability.

Most people with good knowledge of Excel and SPSS and where to find the data online could do pretty much the same tbh if they were as obsessed with hockey!

I have just always loved stats... I used to sit at my dining room table when I was like 7 years old with graph paper making my own 'pretend' Formula 1 World Championships, Premier league football seasons and NHL seasons!

So fill in a load of pretend results and without totting up as I went and then added it all up at the end to see who won the Championship/premier league/regular season. Ofc Michael Schumacher, the Flyers and Man City always won! Probably did one a week for ~2 years... looking back I duno how I did not get bored, pretty repetitive really.

Doing that, playing lego and playmobil and playing sports were all I did for a few years outside of school! Ah the days before computers were commonplace in every household...

 

[Sombastate]

Scoracek is awesome. I see him ending somewhere between 88-92 points. That would be roughly 3rd in the league, right

 

[Nordique]

1.209 PPG is also way above his career pace. Didn't stop it from happening.

Cold streaks can happen, just like hot streaks.

And injuries...

He's had a great first half, i think even a conservative estimate would be him at 80 points.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Yeah, he and Giroux are among the tops in the league. Fantastic top-line.

If the Flyers brass can remember that defensemen are also part of the game, they'll be a great team.

They're aware. Morin, Sanheim, Gostibehere, Hagg and Alt in the pipeline.

 

[Nei1ey*]

Can't believe the flyers will miss the playoffs when they'll have 2 of the top 5 players in points by end of the season.

 

[El Nino 22]

Lol....... 23 points in hs last 40 games? ...... Hmmm nah

Yeah 75 points is hilarious. Don Cherry would have a hard time using that number without guilt. This kid requires the eye test. He is the real deal.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

I've been watching the Flyers closely this year, and have come to the conclusion that it's time to accept Jakub Voracek as one of the top 5 wingers in the world.

I don't personally think he wins the scoring race (he's already slowing down), but he will likely end up as a top 5 player this year in overall scoring, and should be a consistent top 5 scorer among wingers (ie. wingers-only scoring) in the future.

 

[duffy9748]

Has all the tools to be a top 5 overall winger in hockey.

 

[Chimpradamus]

Can't believe the flyers will miss the playoffs when they'll have 2 of the top 5 players in points by end of the season.

You need a team to get somewhere, not only stars. After Voracek and Giroux, the point production drops off significantly. Despite these two players and the season they're having, the team is scoring at an average pace overall (15th), are worse than mediocre defensively (23rd), mediocre at even strength (17th) and have the worst PK in the league.

Giroux, Voracek and Philly's top 5 PP doesn't cover up for all the other team flaws.

 

[Tripod]

Can't believe the flyers will miss the playoffs when they'll have 2 of the top 5 players in points by end of the season.

Just 2 years ago Tampa had the top 2 scorers....and finished 3rd worst in the league.

it happens.

What's crazy is that Mason is 11th in SV% for all starters at .920 so goaltending isn't an issue either.

It really is about untimely goals, poor defense, 1-4 in the SO and the worst pk in the league.

 

[Appleyard]

Just 2 years ago Tampa had the top 2 scorers....and finished 3rd worst in the league.

it happens.

What's crazy is that Mason is 11th in SV% for all starters at .920 so goaltending isn't an issue either.

It really is about untimely goals, poor defense, 1-4 in the SO and the worst pk in the league.

When you add in to that equation that the Flyers currently have more goals for at EV than against, a top 5 PP and the most 10+ goal scorers (6) in the NHL the problems become even more obvious.

The PK sucks, our defence provide very little offensively or in transition, they cant win shoot outs and our coach is out of his depth.

 

[Curufinwe]

You need a team to get somewhere, not only stars. After Voracek and Giroux, the point production drops off significantly. Despite these two players and the season they're having, the team is scoring at an average pace overall (15th), are worse than mediocre defensively (23rd), mediocre at even strength (17th) and have the worst PK in the league.

Giroux, Voracek and Philly's top 5 PP doesn't cover up for all the other team flaws.

If the PK was average I think they'd be the 7th or 8th seed.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

They're aware. Morin, Sanheim, Gostibehere, Hagg and Alt in the pipeline.

Well, pipeline is nice...

We'll see. Hopefully, they're not traded away for offense

 

[BigBen]

6 pts in his last 9 games... all of them on the PP except one. He is already slowing down.

LOL picking his worst string of games this season. 14 points in his last 12 or 6 points in his last 7 played. The only way he puts up 75 or less is if he gets injured for a significant period of time.

 

[MadFerIt95*]

I don't know if Im quite ready to just discount his porous play in Columbus

 

[izzy]

Can't believe the flyers will miss the playoffs when they'll have 2 of the top 5 players in points by end of the season.

Philly defense looks awful. Streit looks good at times, but thats about it.

 

[Sasso09]

Philly defense looks awful. Streit looks good at times, but thats about it.

Believe it or not, Schultz has been there best defenseman