Jakub Voracek is the first player to score 50pts this season.

Sasso09

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Jan 2, 2009
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Most people who watched him prior to this season were predicting 75-82 points this season. He's the real deal.
 

That Habs Fan

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Nov 29, 2008
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Voracek is 25 and had 62 points last season.

He is the real deal, if you don't know that you're not paying enough attention.
 

Appleyard

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Mar 5, 2010
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If Voracek keeps his current season pace (1.209 PPG) he will finish with 99 points.

If Voracek scores at the rate he did since being put on the Flyers first line to start 2012-13 (0.925) he will finish with 88 points.

If Voracek scores at the pace he has since joining the Flyers (0.833) he will finish with 85 points.

If Voracek scores at his career pace (0.697) he will finish with 79 points.

If Voracek scores at his career pace before this season (0.650) he will finish with 77 points.
 

Nei1ey*

Guest
Flyers pp is way too good for him to score only 75, i see him somewhere between 85-90
 

Sasso09

Registered User
Jan 2, 2009
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6 pts in his last 9 games... all of them on the PP except one. He is already slowing down.

His worse 9 game stretch of the season. And let's play devils advocate here and say he continues that rate the rest of the year he will still finish with 78
Points.

Voracek was the driving force tonight on two other goals he didn't receive a point on. There is no way he doesn't finish with more than 75 barring injury.
 

Tripod

I hate this team
Aug 12, 2008
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It is very unlikely he finishes that low.

75 would mean 23 points in his last 39 games (0.59 PPG). That is way below his career pace. (0.7 PPG)

He is at .66 PPG since Christmas....it is possible to go down to .59 over a stretch.

Honestly, I just want him to get to 82 and that would be excellent.
 

Raccoon Jesus

Todd McLellan is an inside agent
Oct 30, 2008
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Lol....... 23 points in hs last 40 games? ...... Hmmm nah

:laugh:

If Voracek keeps his current season pace (1.209 PPG) he will finish with 99 points.

If Voracek scores at the rate he did since being put on the Flyers first line to start 2012-13 (0.925) he will finish with 88 points.

If Voracek scores at the pace he has since joining the Flyers (0.833) he will finish with 85 points.

If Voracek scores at his career pace (0.697) he will finish with 79 points.

If Voracek scores at his career pace before this season (0.650) he will finish with 77 points.

Love your posts. That's all.
 

Regal

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Mar 12, 2010
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It is very unlikely he finishes that low.

75 would mean 23 points in his last 39 games (0.59 PPG). That is way below his career pace. (0.7 PPG)

Lots of players have had seasons where their numbers are wildly different from one half to the next and they end up with about what you would expect from them going into the year. I know the thought process tends to lean toward the gambler's fallacy and that these are banked points, but I don't think it applies to players in the same way as a coin with fixed odds. Typically seasonal averages are always more likely. 75 is probably a little low, but I think he'll be a lot closer to 80 than 100 byou the end of the season. Still would be a tremendous year though obviously.
 

Appleyard

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In this case though Voraceks statistics seem to be very sustainable. (unlike Steen the other year for example.)

His 5v5 individual sh% is 10.39%... which is the 8th lowest amongst the current top 10 scorers (Crosby and Giroux only ones lower.)

His 5v5 on ice sh% is 9.42... which is the 6th lowest amongst the current top 10 scorers (Giroux, Malkin, Kane and Crosby the lower ones.)

His overall sh% is 13.2%... which is the 7th lowest amongst the current top 10 scorers (Giroux, Crosby and Getzlaf the lower ones.)

If you look at the current top ten scorers I would argue the underlying stats indicate that Voracek, Giroux and Crosby have the most sustainable production.

While Tarasenko, Seguin and Johnson are the most likely to 'revert to the mean.' Though none are really too far over at this point, maybe only Tarasenko enough to imagine it is very likely he 'comes down' in the 2nd half.
 

1865

Alpha Couturier
Feb 28, 2005
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Lots of players have had seasons where their numbers are wildly different from one half to the next and they end up with about what you would expect from them going into the year. I know the thought process tends to lean toward the gambler's fallacy and that these are banked points, but I don't think it applies to players in the same way as a coin with fixed odds. Typically seasonal averages are always more likely. 75 is probably a little low, but I think he'll be a lot closer to 80 than 100 byou the end of the season. Still would be a tremendous year though obviously.

Playing with Giroux ought to guarantee ~PPG for the rest of the year.
 

Regal

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Mar 12, 2010
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In this case though Voraceks statistics seem to be very sustainable. (unlike Steen the other year for example.)

His 5v5 individual sh% is 10.39%... which is the 8th lowest amongst the current top 10 scorers (Crosby and Giroux only ones lower.)

His 5v5 on ice sh% is 9.42... which is the 6th lowest amongst the current top 10 scorers (Giroux, Malkin, Kane and Crosby the lower ones.)

His overall sh% is 13.2%... which is the 7th lowest amongst the current top 10 scorers (Giroux, Crosby and Getzlaf the lower ones.)

If you look at the current top ten scorers I would argue the underlying stats indicate that Voracek, Giroux and Crosby have the most sustainable production.

While Tarasenko, Seguin and Johnson are the most likely to 'revert to the mean.' Though none are really too far over at this point, maybe only Tarasenko enough to imagine it is very likely he 'comes down' in the 2nd half.

Yea, I don't think it's the same as Steen by any means. With this season and the lockout, I think he's established he can be at least a PPG type, whereas Steen was always more of a 60 point type. But even stars will have some wild shifts. I remember there was a couple years where Kovalchuk had them in Atlanta, and even Kane had a similar start last year before drying up. I know the underlying numbers suggest it's sustainable, but the league always has a funny way of "correcting" everyone's numbers in the end, and I suspect it'll happen to Voracek somewhat. It would be neat if he could push close to 100, but I just don't see it. Though, I thought he'd start to fall off after giving Crosby a run for his money in that "first to 30" thread, and here he is being he first to 50, so I guess you never know.
 

Czech Your Math

I am lizard king
Jan 25, 2006
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bohemia
If you look at the current top ten scorers I would argue the underlying stats indicate that Voracek, Giroux and Crosby have the most sustainable production.

I would replace Voracek with Malkin & Getzlaf. Maybe on-ice shooting % suggests Voracek can sustain his production, and maybe he will, but it seems a lot to ask for him to sustain a 99 point pace. Giroux scoring at a sustainable pace bolsters both of their cases though.
 

The Noot

scaldin ur d00dz
Apr 12, 2012
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It is very unlikely he finishes that low.

75 would mean 23 points in his last 39 games (0.59 PPG). That is way below his career pace. (0.7 PPG)

1.209 PPG is also way above his career pace. Didn't stop it from happening.

Cold streaks can happen, just like hot streaks.
 
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