AtlasRust
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2011
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Is he the real deal, or a midseason pretender?
edit: Also, is he better than Tavares?
edit: Also, is he better than Tavares?
Last edited:
Wasn't he at 50 before tonight's game?
Is he the real deal, or a midseason pretender?
He is having a breakout season for sure. I see him finish at about 75 pts.
He is having a breakout season for sure. I see him finish at about 75 pts.
Lol....... 23 points in hs last 40 games? ...... Hmmm nah
6 pts in his last 9 games... all of them on the PP except one. He is already slowing down.
It is very unlikely he finishes that low.
75 would mean 23 points in his last 39 games (0.59 PPG). That is way below his career pace. (0.7 PPG)
He is at .66 PPG since Christmas....it is possible to go down to .59 over a stretch.
Honestly, I just want him to get to 82 and that would be excellent.
"since Xmas" is 9 games... Nothing to worry about.
6 pts in his last 9 games... all of them on the PP except one. He is already slowing down.
Lol....... 23 points in hs last 40 games? ...... Hmmm nah
If Voracek keeps his current season pace (1.209 PPG) he will finish with 99 points.
If Voracek scores at the rate he did since being put on the Flyers first line to start 2012-13 (0.925) he will finish with 88 points.
If Voracek scores at the pace he has since joining the Flyers (0.833) he will finish with 85 points.
If Voracek scores at his career pace (0.697) he will finish with 79 points.
If Voracek scores at his career pace before this season (0.650) he will finish with 77 points.
It is very unlikely he finishes that low.
75 would mean 23 points in his last 39 games (0.59 PPG). That is way below his career pace. (0.7 PPG)
Lots of players have had seasons where their numbers are wildly different from one half to the next and they end up with about what you would expect from them going into the year. I know the thought process tends to lean toward the gambler's fallacy and that these are banked points, but I don't think it applies to players in the same way as a coin with fixed odds. Typically seasonal averages are always more likely. 75 is probably a little low, but I think he'll be a lot closer to 80 than 100 byou the end of the season. Still would be a tremendous year though obviously.
In this case though Voraceks statistics seem to be very sustainable. (unlike Steen the other year for example.)
His 5v5 individual sh% is 10.39%... which is the 8th lowest amongst the current top 10 scorers (Crosby and Giroux only ones lower.)
His 5v5 on ice sh% is 9.42... which is the 6th lowest amongst the current top 10 scorers (Giroux, Malkin, Kane and Crosby the lower ones.)
His overall sh% is 13.2%... which is the 7th lowest amongst the current top 10 scorers (Giroux, Crosby and Getzlaf the lower ones.)
If you look at the current top ten scorers I would argue the underlying stats indicate that Voracek, Giroux and Crosby have the most sustainable production.
While Tarasenko, Seguin and Johnson are the most likely to 'revert to the mean.' Though none are really too far over at this point, maybe only Tarasenko enough to imagine it is very likely he 'comes down' in the 2nd half.
If you look at the current top ten scorers I would argue the underlying stats indicate that Voracek, Giroux and Crosby have the most sustainable production.
It is very unlikely he finishes that low.
75 would mean 23 points in his last 39 games (0.59 PPG). That is way below his career pace. (0.7 PPG)