PuckMunchkin
Very Nice, Very Evil!
Players don't usually dramatically increase their shooting% over short periods.
It is always a red flag when trying to project the players future.
Player Discussion Jake Virtanen Part 2
- Thread starter Bleach Clean
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Players don't usually dramatically increase their shooting% over short periods.
It is always a red flag when trying to project the players future.
Virtanen's shooting percentage may well go down. But he was trending higher last season in terms of shot rates and he was noticeably having higher quality scoring chances. Essentially, had Virtanen received more minutes and increased his shooting percentage he would have been scoring at or near a 20 goal pace.
I don't think there's enough evidence to suggest that Virtanen's shooting percentage is likely to be below 8% for the rest of his career.
PuckMunchkin
Very Nice, Very Evil!
True enough but 13% isn't a ridiculous number. Last year of forwards playing a minimum of 25 games you have over 150 with a SH% over 12%. About 250 over 10%. So it's likely a bit high but I suspect he would settle into 10-11% range long term.
The one that is likely unsustainable if Pettersson. He'll likely settle into the 18% range like many of the best goal scorers in the league. If he stays at or above 25% you have generational goal scorer.
stampedingviking
Registered User
Shareefruck
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PuckMunchkin
Very Nice, Very Evil!
13.5 is not ridicilious.
But going from shooting 7.4 then 6.6 in the AHL and then again 7.7 in the NHL to almost doubling that is not something that usually happens for players.
Agree about Peteys shooting% for sure.
Some players just figure things out. William Karlsson is an example of a player whose shooting percentage shot up. Kesler’s shooting percentage was much lower in his first 3 seasons than it was in his goal scoring prime. Martin St. Louis is another example. The question with Jake is what type of player he is going to be. This season he has been better at converting his chances. He’s ripped at least a couple top shelf and held scored on at least a couple of one timers. Many of his goals this season were high percentage shots that he converted.
Virtanen is playing more minutes, getting more shots and has better linemates. This likely leads to better looks so a higher shooting percentage.
I don’t disagree it is a bit of a surprise but I think a good chunk of it can be attributed to better play selection on his part. He’s not a clone of Mason Raymond like he was this time last year.
timbermen
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- Nov 14, 2017
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Who was that guy in this thread that predicted he'd score 20 goals and lead the team in hits before the season started? He took an awful lot of flac for it.He said if he didn't reach 20 it was because he was being deployed wrong and was accused of getting his excuses ready. Now these same posters are making excuses saying fluky goals while he wasn't getting much PP time or top2 line duty early. Still on pace for 25 while being deployed wrong early. Greener trusts him now. Anyways , pretty bold prediction and it looks like it's coming true. Good on him.
The season is 82 games and not 34.
Fyi
Cowan 6 goals in 4 games
Kassian 5 goals in 7 games
Macann 5 goals in 7 games
A lot of players have a hot streak and fade away. I would still be very surprised if he gets to 20. This season is only 34 games in and he already had two 10 games goalless streak. He started to slow down with 2 goals in his last 14 games.
The goal against Columbus. That is fluky goal no matter how you slice and dice it.
lawrence
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- May 19, 2012
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Canucker
Go Hawks!
Sell high on Virtanen, if you can work him+ into a good young D-man.
Was thinking the same, maybe JB is trying to pump and dump him but his track record on fetching d-men is horrible.
You honestly believe JV’s progression comes down to fluky goals and a hot streak? Most of his goals have been on the rush using his speed and shot - both core strengths. He has improved in the d-zone and using his size to open up space.
Watching him last few games he sure looks like a top 6 winger to me. The Canucks would be smart to get a contract extension now, if he starts banging in 30 the price goes way up.
The increase in shooting percentage is likely a product of higher quality shoots. Better linemates and PP time on the 2nd unit are probably the biggest factors. His most frequent line mates last year were (IIRC) Loui Eriksson (who is a black hole of offense), Brandon Sutter and Markus Granlund. All of these can score in streaks, but none of them really generate offense using their line mates.
This is the first time they have really given him a sustained string of games with top 6 minutes and decent linemates (and remember he started the season playing with Sutter and Schaller). He looks to be a really good fit on Horvat's line - and it gives us a fast, heavy line that is difficult to play against. He played sporadically with the Sedins last year, but they didn't really take advantage of his speed / transition game. He has improved his board work quite a bit, but he was not a good match for the Sedins half court game - and pretty much every time he made the smallest mistake he was back on the bench or on the 4th line.
He has always been very good at controlled zone entries. But when your linemates are a full zone behind you, it leaves you isolated, with few offensive options.
He has also clearly improved his overall thinking of the game at the NHL level. When he got the puck previously, you knew he was going to blast down the wing and try to beat the defense wide. If the defender took the proper angle, it would result in a shot from distance and/or an acute angle or Jake would end up below the goal line or swing behind the net. Those types of rushes tend not to generate high quality shooting opportunities. This year he has made some really nice passes to setup his line mates (he had a gorgeous pass to Horvat the other night). He also at times pulls up to hit a trailing forward or defenseman. More importantly, he is now getting in quick on the forecheck and turning pucks over - resulting in more sustained pressure in the O zone. He is never going to be an assist machine, but if he keeps this up it should result in more assists as well.
PP time also tends to yield better quality shots.
This is the first time they have really given him a sustained string of games with top 6 minutes and decent linemates (and remember he started the season playing with Sutter and Schaller). He looks to be a really good fit on Horvat's line - and it gives us a fast, heavy line that is difficult to play against. He played sporadically with the Sedins last year, but they didn't really take advantage of his speed / transition game. He has improved his board work quite a bit, but he was not a good match for the Sedins half court game - and pretty much every time he made the smallest mistake he was back on the bench or on the 4th line.
He has always been very good at controlled zone entries. But when your linemates are a full zone behind you, it leaves you isolated, with few offensive options.
He has also clearly improved his overall thinking of the game at the NHL level. When he got the puck previously, you knew he was going to blast down the wing and try to beat the defense wide. If the defender took the proper angle, it would result in a shot from distance and/or an acute angle or Jake would end up below the goal line or swing behind the net. Those types of rushes tend not to generate high quality shooting opportunities. This year he has made some really nice passes to setup his line mates (he had a gorgeous pass to Horvat the other night). He also at times pulls up to hit a trailing forward or defenseman. More importantly, he is now getting in quick on the forecheck and turning pucks over - resulting in more sustained pressure in the O zone. He is never going to be an assist machine, but if he keeps this up it should result in more assists as well.
PP time also tends to yield better quality shots.
PuckMunchkin
Very Nice, Very Evil!
Cupless44
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- Jun 25, 2014
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Lol so now that Virtanen is getting it together the naysayers who have trashed him for 4 years are making it all about goals and how fluky his goals are. ( not all 10 are fluky either)
This totally ignores the clear improvements in his overall game..that he is now trusted defensively...has always had good advanced stats...is working on and improving his stick handling and passing...is the most physical forward on the team...and the fastest skater on the team at 225 lbs.
Funny how some trust from the coach and decent ice time finally is making a difference.
Melvin
21/12/05
There's nothing wrong with admitting this while also acknowledging his good play.
I was extremely positive about his play last year, probably moreso than anyone on here. And yeah, the fact that he's finally getting some good ice time is reflective in his production. As is the fact that he's gotten luckier than he did last year.
Well the Flyers have too many good young D....maybe they should give us Travis Sanheim for him....
stampedingviking
Registered User
Canucker
Go Hawks!
Thats exactly the type of trade I'd be looking to make...a young guy with some high end skill who just hasn't put it together yet.
Yes of course
But I am the type of person that calls things the way I see it. I am not bias
Yes
If you look at Virtanen season right now
2 goals in his first 12 games ( 1 EN)
6 goals in his next 8 games
2 goals in the next 15 games.
As of right now this proves to me his production is mainly just a hot streak.
Aside from Virtanen 6 goals in 8 games stretch. I don't see some aa hugh improvement. He is still no more than a 3rd line winger. Before he was Liability and now he is not. Before he give away the puck left right and center now he doesn't. I do see a nice few nice pass here and there. Thats it.
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