Jake Muzzin, Nikita Zaitsev, & the Leafs D Pairs

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Jun 24, 2012
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James Mirtle had an article in The Athletic today, trying to work out what the Leafs lines look like when optimized.

For the forwards, he said based on results;

Johnsson - Matthews - Kapanen
Hyman - Tavares - Marner
Marleau - Kadri - Nylander
Ennis/Moore - Lindholm - Brown

is the best usage of the lines.

For defense, it gets interesting.

He shows each defenders results when on the ice with each of the other defenders.

He says, at a glance, Rielly and Hainsey are essentially playing to a draw, with Rielly/Hainsey having a SCF% of 50.2%, while the Gardiner-Dermott is dominating against lower comp. with 63.8%

However, when you look at the Muzzin-Zaitsev pairing, they are sitting at 58.2%, which is the most productive Zaitsev has ever been as a Leaf.

Which brings us to the overall point, that it seems like Toronto has found the perfect partner for Nikita Zaitsev. For whatever reason, Zaitsev is now playing productive hockey beside Muzzin, getting results he couldn't beside Rielly, Dermott & Hainsey. Though with Gardiner, he's at 52%.

Mirtle states that right now, the Leafs D pairs are optimized, as Rielly-Hainsey are keeping the top competition in check, while Muzzin-Zaitsev and Gardiner-Dermott are dominating the lower competition. However he says, he does wonder how a Gardiner-Hainsey switch would fair.
 
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Once

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Jul 16, 2010
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Playing Hainsey on the top pairing allows Rielly to play to his strength and to continue being successful during his Norris campaign. Muzzin opens the gate for Z to utilize his offensive skills...hopefully generating some confidence for the guy.
 
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WTFMAN99

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Jun 17, 2009
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Playing Hainsey on the top pairing allows Rielly to play to his strength and to continue being successful during his Norris campaign. Muzzin opens the gate for Z to utilize his offensive skills...hopefully generating some confidence for the guy.

Rielly-Pesce
Muzzin-Zaitsev
Gardiner-Dermott

or Dermott-Hainsey would be ridiculous I feel like lol.

Only problem is unless Marleau goes this off-season to Arizona to help the cap situation, can't really keep it together after this run. It'll also cost Kappy in order to get Pesce most likely.
 

Trapper

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Nov 21, 2013
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Rielly-Pesce
Muzzin-Zaitsev
Gardiner-Dermott

or Dermott-Hainsey would be ridiculous I feel like lol.

Only problem is unless Marleau goes this off-season to Arizona to help the cap situation, can't really keep it together after this run. It'll also cost Kappy in order to get Pesce most likely.
Hard to justify paying Gardiner (5/6) to face lesser competition.
Then do you keep Muzzin?
 

Trapper

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Nov 21, 2013
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Well, Muzzin we'd still have under contract next year.

Gardiner after this season is gonezo.
If we managed to get Pesce, I’d move Gardiner now.
Rielly...Pesce
Muzzin...Z
Dermott...Hainsey (next year Lily)

You can keep Hainsey if he signs cheap to stay.
 

WTFMAN99

Registered User
Jun 17, 2009
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If we managed to get Pesce, I’d move Gardiner now.
Rielly...Pesce
Muzzin...Z
Dermott...Hainsey (next year Lily)

You can keep Hainsey if he signs cheap to stay.

I don't think I would keep Hainsey...Rosen is a fine 7th defenseman and only 750k. Lily has also lost a significant amount of development time the last 2 years, not expecting him to be ready.

We can also debate the merits of moving Gardiner but don't think they actually would do it.

That being said....I could see Rielly-Pesce swinging 55-60% CF

Muzzin-Zaitsev are rolling around 55%

Gardiner-Dermott are 60%, so absolutely dummying competition with that group.
 

WilliamNylander

Papi's home
Jul 26, 2012
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I’m sorry but if you are breaking even with a top pair superstar Norris caliber D you’re doing it wrong.

Nobody ever says Karlsson, Doughty, Subban, Gio are amazing because they “break even”. That’s a terrible argument.
 

BlueForever75

Registered User
Oct 4, 2017
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I still think that Gardiner is the shoe that should fall. If Muzzin-Zaitsev pairing has been doing better then they should stay together. Trade Gardiner + for a top notch dman to pair with Reilly. Move Hainsey with Dermott. And your defense is set and better.
 

SeaOfBlue

The Passion That Unites Us All
Aug 1, 2013
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If we managed to get Pesce, I’d move Gardiner now.
Rielly...Pesce
Muzzin...Z
Dermott...Hainsey (next year Lily)

You can keep Hainsey if he signs cheap to stay.

I am happy with this.

I want Hainsey with Dermott for the playoffs. I do not think Gardiner provides nearly as much value to the team as the assets he would return in a trade now that Muzzin is here. Hainsey still handles some important responsibilities, and even with Pesce in the lineup, he'd still at least be a key PKer. Gardiner is at best our 2nd best PP guy, and not one who can be considered significantly better than either Muzzin or Dermott at this point.
 

stickty111

Registered User
Jan 23, 2017
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I still think that Gardiner is the shoe that should fall. If Muzzin-Zaitsev pairing has been doing better then they should stay together. Trade Gardiner + for a top notch dman to pair with Reilly. Move Hainsey with Dermott. And your defense is set and better.
At the same time, Gardiner and Dermott are dominating together. If Gardiner and Dermott are doing well on different pairs, why should we trade either of them?
I don't why you mentioned Zaitsev and Muzzin having great results, but didn't point out Gardiner and Dermott playing well.
 

Mr Hockey

Toronto
May 11, 2017
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If we managed to get Pesce, I’d move Gardiner now.
Rielly...Pesce
Muzzin...Z
Dermott...Hainsey (next year Lily)

You can keep Hainsey if he signs cheap to stay.

This would be our best pairings going into the playoffs, IMO

Rielly ~ Pesce
Muzzin ~ Zait
Dermott/Gardiner ~ Hainsey
 

Trapper

Registered User
Nov 21, 2013
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At the same time, Gardiner and Dermott are dominating together. If Gardiner and Dermott are doing well on different pairs, why should we trade either of them?
I don't why you mentioned Zaitsev and Muzzin having great results, but didn't point out Gardiner and Dermott playing well.
I think I’d rather Dermott/Hainsey as the 3rd pair if we are facing Boston.
But that is dependent on getting a quality RHD partner for Rielly.

Then I’d get my Muzzin assets back for Gardiner (or assets to make up for getting a RHD). Going to need cheap 1st round picks moving forward as well.
 

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