Value of: Jacob Trouba at the draft

[Snowman]

I'm not sure it's a problem with my scenario as much as it is with perception.

Connor and Laine are both due big deals. Laine hurt his value, but the two of them together almost assuredly end up eating half of that cap space.

Now you need 3D, 4F, 1G and you have 13.5m in space to make that work. Figure you'll bring up a rookie or two, lock up Copp for 2-2.5ish - but that's a lot of dumpster-diving to fill the roster if you're going to bring back Trouba post-arbitration - that's yet another wildcard.

So if I'm a team that wants Trouba - lets see what I know:
-Winnipeg's probably got a cap issue that precludes them from paying him his market value without making a trade
-Winnipeg's probably got to take him to arbitration
-There's been a lot of smoke around Trouba wanting out over the years - it's ebbed and flowed
-There's a pretty good chance he's a 2020 UFA if he stays in the 'peg

He's locked in value-wise by Winnipeg's cap situation, and it will get worse for Winnipeg over time unless something gives. And look, it CAN give - Perreault, Little, Lowry, and Byfuglien are all probably at least for discussion in trade once this season ends - but as things stand, why would any team give up more than offer sheet value for him knowing where Winnipeg stands?

Your post doesn't really make sense. There are many offer sheet levels, so it depends what the offer would be. However, if you are talking about some team offering Trouba a market value deal, then the Jets easily match and say thank you very much. Which would be the main reason Trouba won't sign an offer sheet if he really wants out.

So, in all likelihood the team looking to acquire Trouba, would probably get a better deal by trading for him and offering him a fair contract. Other than that, they are left offering a massive overpay for Trouba and the Jets say thank you very much for the 4 first round picks.

 

[Belzebob]

What's a fair offer for Trouba from PHI and FLA's pov?

I do not follow either team closely enough to give an opinion.

but it is far too early to think about anyway.

maybe the jets win the cup and trouba has a change of heart and wants to stay and win some more.

I would not wish it on most players, but maybe he gets hurt and lives to regret not signing a long term contract when he could of.

but if he really does not want to play in Winnipeg, the team will be just fine without him

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I do not follow either team closely enough to give an opinion.

but it is far too early to think about anyway.

maybe the jets win the cup and trouba has a change of heart and wants to stay and win some more.

I would not wish it on most players, but maybe he gets hurt and lives to regret not signing a long term contract when he could of.

but if he really does not want to play in Winnipeg, the team will be just fine without him

For sure. Anything can happen and he can definitely change his mind but I dont see it.

There have been some decent offers made in here that are maybe not to most WPGs fans liking but I agree they will be fine on offense but question their depth at RD if Trouba and Myers walk while Buff starts to decline and break down.

 

[Belzebob]

For sure. Anything can happen and he can definitely change his mind but I dont see it.

There have been some decent offers made in here that are maybe not to most WPGs fans liking but I agree they will be fine on offense but question their depth at RD if Trouba and Myers walk while Buff starts to decline and break down.

Myers will be offered a contract if/when trouba leaves. Winnipeg has treated him well and I think he might sign for less than he could get on the market

we have a couple of young defencemen that could be close. sami niku for one.

trades that are proposed here are on the basis of what makes the fans happy and not usually what gm's do.

perhaps it is a 3 team trade that fills everyone's desires

you are correct that the right side of the defence would be the preferred return as buff is not getting any younger

I can see one of Kulikov or chiarot being kept

 

[Belzebob]

another little fact that a lot of posters do not consider is the seattle expansion draft.

perhaps chevy would consider going for picks or prospects

more elc's that do not need protection

 

[Hunter368]

For sure. Anything can happen and he can definitely change his mind but I dont see it.

There have been some decent offers made in here that are maybe not to most WPGs fans liking but I agree they will be fine on offense but question their depth at RD if Trouba and Myers walk while Buff starts to decline and break down.

Some decent offers? Not many TBH (maybe 2-3) and Im fairly conservative with my expectations on a Trouba return imo. Plus there’s a difference between value & fit.....some offer value but fail to consider any Jets needs & strengths. The other potential difference is opposing fans try to minimize return by trying to call him nothing but a rental without acknowledging the fact he could be traded via trade & sign deal the same as Stone. Some of the offers aren’t even enough for a true TDL rental for a guy like him......never mind the fact he has a full year as a RFA even if you want to discount the trade/sign option. Just part of HFB tbh, many don’t even get into the circular pissing matches about trades & offers bc some are so clueless......I very much select who I respond to and ignore the others......not worth wasting time on those discussions.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Some decent offers? Not many TBH (maybe 2-3) and Im fairly conservative with my expectations on a Trouba return imo. Plus there’s a difference between value & fit.....some offer value but fail to consider any Jets needs & strengths. The other potential difference is opposing fans try to minimize return by trying to call him nothing but a rental without acknowledging the fact he could be traded via trade & sign deal the same as Stone. Some of the offers aren’t even enough for a true TDL rental for a guy like him......never mind the fact he has a full year as a RFA even if you want to discount the trade/sign option. Just part of HFB tbh, many don’t even get into the circular pissing matches about trades & offers bc some are so clueless......I very much select who I respond to and ignore the others......not worth wasting time on those discussions.

Can we agree McDonagh is a good comparable for Trouba's situation then?
McDonagh's 1.3 years left vs Trouba's single year.

McDonagh was traded for a late 1st round pick (TB's 28th), a late first in Howden (27th OV), a conditional 1st that ended up being a 2nd (TB didn't win the Cup) and a 2nd round prospect in Hajek.

So there have been offers in here of DET's 6th+, ANA's 9th, PHI's 11th+, FLA's 13th+ iirc.
Feel those two firsts in the McDonagh trade have less value combined of those picks listed just above.
Leaving two 2nd round picks which were added in deals as well. (Think I offered up 13th OV + 2020 2nd + Pysyk/Weegar (who probably have a 3rd round pick in value)

Was McDonagh not considered a #1/2 D man when traded?

As we've said before, a lot will come down to Chevy whether he wants to go the own rental path or trading him at draft. Don't see why you'd trade him at deadline unless you're out of the race which seems unlikely.

 

[Hunter368]

Can we agree McDonagh is a good comparable for Trouba's situation then?
McDonagh's 1.3 years left vs Trouba's single year.

McDonagh was traded for a late 1st round pick (TB's 28th), a late first in Howden (27th OV), a conditional 1st that ended up being a 2nd (TB didn't win the Cup) and a 2nd round prospect in Hajek.

So there have been offers in here of DET's 6th+, PHI's 11th+, FLA's 13th+ iirc.
Feel those two firsts in the McDonagh trade have less value combined of those picks listed just above.
Leaving two 2nd round picks which were added in deals as well. (Think I offered up 13th OV + 2020 2nd + Pysyk/Weegar (who probably have a 3rd round pick in value)

Was McDonagh not considered a #1/2 D man when traded?

As we've said before, a lot will come down to Chevy whether he wants to go the own rental path or trading him at draft. Don't see why you'd trade him at deadline unless you're out of the race which seems unlikely.

Agreed, we’ve spoken multi times before.....I have no issues with your offers. I laugh at the comments of he’s purely a rental thus the Jets are lucky to get a late 1st plus C level prospect or two mid range 2nd rd picks or B level prospect & 2nd rd pick......those are either uneducated comments or just baiting people type of comments either not worth replying to

 

[captainpaxil]

This has been mentioned a few times in this thread already, yet some posters continue to ignore the obvious reality you point out. I just chalk it up to the typical fan's fantasy. "I'm going to get a top end player to bolster my roster and not give up anything significant from my roster or prospect pool to do it." Nice fantasy, it just doesn't happen often.

Part of that is timing. A big draw in acquiring a player is signing an 8 year deal which you can't really do til jan 1st. In the meantime trouba is rfa and could walk at the end of the year. The draft presents definitive advantage for the jets as we have a pretty good idea whos picking where and who could be available at that pick. Come july other teams could freely negotiate with trouba on an extension but they'd be sending 2020 picks which would presumably be worse. The reason you deal/ for trouba at the draft is because the 19 pick is the prime asset in the return

 

[Keystone]

Can we agree McDonagh is a good comparable for Trouba's situation then?
McDonagh's 1.3 years left vs Trouba's single year.

McDonagh was traded for a late 1st round pick (TB's 28th), a late first in Howden (27th OV), a conditional 1st that ended up being a 2nd (TB didn't win the Cup) and a 2nd round prospect in Hajek.

So there have been offers in here of DET's 6th+, ANA's 9th, PHI's 11th+, FLA's 13th+ iirc.
Feel those two firsts in the McDonagh trade have less value combined of those picks listed just above.
Leaving two 2nd round picks which were added in deals as well. (Think I offered up 13th OV + 2020 2nd + Pysyk/Weegar (who probably have a 3rd round pick in value)

Was McDonagh not considered a #1/2 D man when traded?

As we've said before, a lot will come down to Chevy whether he wants to go the own rental path or trading him at draft. Don't see why you'd trade him at deadline unless you're out of the race which seems unlikely.

Part of that is timing. A big draw in acquiring a player is signing an 8 year deal which you can't really do til jan 1st. In the meantime trouba is rfa and could walk at the end of the year. The draft presents definitive advantage for the jets as we have a pretty good idea whos picking where and who could be available at that pick. Come july other teams could freely negotiate with trouba on an extension but they'd be sending 2020 picks which would presumably be worse. The reason you deal/ for trouba at the draft is because the 19 pick is the prime asset in the return

I’m probably in the minority of Jets fans who agrees these posts. I think the main piece is gonna be a first round pick which I’m fine with considering the Jets success rate with picks in first half of round 1. And the fact that high 1st rd picks are NHL ready so quickly nowadays. Add in a prospect and or a serviceable Dman on a cheap contract.

 

[JetsHomer]

I’m probably in the minority of Jets fans who agrees these posts. I think the main piece is gonna be a first round pick which I’m fine with considering the Jets success rate with picks in first half of round 1. And the fact that high 1st rd picks are NHL ready so quickly nowadays. Add in a prospect and or a serviceable Dman on a cheap contract.

If that garbage is the return I'd rather just keep Trouba and try to resign hin

 

[Keystone]

If that garbage is the return I'd rather just keep Trouba and try to resign hin

That’s fine too, but he hasn’t looked like he’s interested in that up to this point.

 

[Hunter368]

That’s fine too, but he hasn’t looked like he’s interested in that up to this point.

In the end if he was traded this summer the returns would need to be greater then what we would need to get a rental to replace him otherwise it’s not logical to trade him for a rental return. Example:

A) Rental return: Late 1st & C level defence prospect or Two 2nd rd picks......both are not logical returns......better to keep Trouba ourselves IMO.

B) Greater then rental return: 1st rd pick 10-15 range & good B level defence prospect & older bridge solution D with 1-2 year term or 1st rd pick 8-10 range & B level defence prospect. IMO

Option A is garbage, non logical.....better to keep Trouba. IMO

Option B is interesting enough to make me think and very seriously consider it. IMO

Not all would agree and that’s ok.

 

[Pongs21]

Flyers offer up the 11th overall pick, 72nd overall pick, and Isaac Ratcliffe.

No thanks, not close.

And Winnipeg at it and says no.

I don't know what you guys are talking about, but if Trouba won't re-up that's a solid offer that would absolutely be considered.

 

[Snowman]

I don't know what you guys are talking about, but if Trouba won't re-up that's a solid offer that would absolutely be considered.

Not for me. Jets have zero need for wingers and will get a better offer than this.

 

[Pongs21]

Not for me. Jets have zero need for wingers and will get a better offer than this.

Prospects can be changed, its the 11th pick that catches my attention

 

[Snowman]

Prospects can be changed, its the 11th pick that catches my attention

Again, not me. Depending on the player, the pick and/or prospect would need to go up or down. An 11th pick, without a nice add isn’t very interesting for a top pairing RHD and what was proposed wasn’t very interesting.

 

[snowkiddin]

I'm not sure it's a problem with my scenario as much as it is with perception.

Connor and Laine are both due big deals. Laine hurt his value, but the two of them together almost assuredly end up eating half of that cap space.

Now you need 3D, 4F, 1G and you have 13.5m in space to make that work. Figure you'll bring up a rookie or two, lock up Copp for 2-2.5ish - but that's a lot of dumpster-diving to fill the roster if you're going to bring back Trouba post-arbitration - that's yet another wildcard.

So if I'm a team that wants Trouba - lets see what I know:
-Winnipeg's probably got a cap issue that precludes them from paying him his market value without making a trade
-Winnipeg's probably got to take him to arbitration
-There's been a lot of smoke around Trouba wanting out over the years - it's ebbed and flowed
-There's a pretty good chance he's a 2020 UFA if he stays in the 'peg

He's locked in value-wise by Winnipeg's cap situation, and it will get worse for Winnipeg over time unless something gives. And look, it CAN give - Perreault, Little, Lowry, and Byfuglien are all probably at least for discussion in trade once this season ends - but as things stand, why would any team give up more than offer sheet value for him knowing where Winnipeg stands?

I don’t think Buff gets traded at all. He likes it here and is still an impact player for the Jets. They will desperately need him if Trouba leaves and Myers walks, otherwise, who’s your best D man on the right side? Tucker Poolman? Dude has 24 NHL games to his name. Though I’m sure they would sign a UFA in this situation, but still.

Buff has 2 years left on his contract after this year, but I think he is primed to retire a Jet. Likely signs his final contract in 2021 to bring him to the end.

 

[DavidBL]

I'd love to get Trouba for the Ducks but outside of the #9 pick I don't know what we coud offer and honestly I'm not sure I want to give that pick up. Not that Trouba isn't worth it, he is, but that pick is the best chance if us getting an impact, high end forward we've had in years.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I'd love to get Trouba for the Ducks but outside of the #9 pick I don't know what we coud offer and honestly I'm not sure I want to give that pick up. Not that Trouba isn't worth it, he is, but that pick is the best chance if us getting an impact, high end forward we've had in years.

I'd trade Trouba to the Ducks for an unprotected 1st for 2020 + an A prospect. Sort of how Colorado traded Duchene to Ottawa. As I don't think Trouba is the difference between you guys getting an early vs late pick.