Jack Hughes on pace to have worst rookie season by a 1st overall forward since Patrik Stefan in 1999

Discussion in 'National Hockey League Talk' started by RonningMorrisonBooth, Dec 6, 2019.

  1. Rebels57

    Rebels57 Registered User

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    It was a post in another thread that has since been deleted. There have been other posts here and there over the last year as well. The irony is that Hughes and Patricks rookie seasons were very similar with Patrick having better 5v5 production but also playing on a better team. I dont want to turn this into a comparison because I think Hughes will be better, but I just find it funny.
     
  2. Kawhi

    Kawhi Registered User

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    Brutal rookie class
     
  3. ninetyeight

    ninetyeight Registered User

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    I’m not sure if I agree that Hughes and Kakko (or Dach) should be in the AHL. If they are able to play at NHL level (like they are) then that’s where they should be. AHL is a different league with different playstyle and different skillset, so there would be an adaptation period to NHL anyway. I think all these guys get a much better understanding of how the game is played, what they can and can’t do and what do they need to improve during the offseason, when they have actual experience in the league.

    So I don’t think it’s rushing as long as they can keep up with the game and generate chances. Points aren’t everything when it comes to rookie development. Also all these great D+2 rookie seasons get contributed for the D+1 time in AHL, but nobody ever considers that maybe age has something to do with it too. For instance Quinn Hughes is 2 years older than Jack, so let’s see what kinda point totals Jack is putting in two years and then decide if it was a mistake not sending him down.
     
  4. Riseonfire

    Riseonfire #unsustainable

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    IDK, everyone knew Hughes would need time to grow and adjust so I don't see the need to panic yet.

    The #2 pick though, he was supposed to be the one who was ready. I'd be concerned about him, not Jack yet.
     
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  5. CaptTeneile

    CaptTeneile Registered User

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    I hate the Flyers with every fiber of my being but I feel terrible for Patrick and hope he makes a full recovery. Every fan base has a few really bad apples.

    I am not disappointed in Hughes. Anyone who watches him can see the talent. It'll come.
     
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  6. EichHart

    EichHart Registered User

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    He will be fine, overblown post. Check back in 2-3 years when hes a 80 pt center.
     
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  7. Rangerfan4life90

    Rangerfan4life90 Registered User

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    Lol

    I'll start being concerned and worried if Kakko is like this in like years 3/4. Not year 1 when he's still learning the league and adapting. I'll bet on both Hughes and Kakko being fine long-term. Will they be elite superstars? Maybe not, but they'll be fine players.
     
  8. Gabrielor

    Gabrielor HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    Haven’t watched him, but if NJD is using him at center, it’s a mistake.

    Size + skill set = he should at least start his career at wing. Said that his whole draft year.
     
  9. tsujimoto74

    tsujimoto74 Moderator

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    Yup. When you watch him, you can see the elite level tools there. He's gonna be a star. Not this season, obviously, but he'll get there. I never bought into those who were hyping him as the next Eichel/Matthews caliber American center, but he's going to be a very, very good player.
     
  10. TGWL

    TGWL Registered User

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    The off-season NJD had led the organization, media, and many fans, to believe they could at least contend to a potential wild card spot. I think had they felt they were still a bottom of the bottom team, Jack's development would have gone a different way. He's obviously skilled.
     
  11. Michoulicious

    Michoulicious Registered User

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    Hugues is awesome. Just a victim of expectations. He'll be fine.
     
  12. StoneHands

    StoneHands Registered User

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    He looks 12, what did you expect? When are teams going to start realizing that not every #1OA pick needs to play in the NHL right away? He's gonna be fine but he's in over his head right now and it doesn't help that he's playing on a trash team so they actually expected him to be a big part of their offense.
     
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  13. TanguaySauce

    TanguaySauce Better Than BBQ

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    If Colorado had won the lottery and selected Hughes, he would be a 20-20 guy right now IMO. The Devils are a tire fire, give them some time to put together a solid team, and Jack will be fine.
     
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  14. Se829ne

    Se829ne Registered User

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    Last summer/autumn people would've got death threats if saying something similar that seems to be the norm now here...

    He will be good. And that 2nd pick will be good too if someone asks.
     
  15. KappoTheGoat

    KappoTheGoat "Kaapo 3x gold Kakko"

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    Give it a year or 2, he'll get there, overreactions are going crazy on this kid imo.
     
  16. Blackjack

    Blackjack Registered User

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    As a Devils fan, I feel the same way. Kakko will be a great player. I think success in a European men's league at his age usually does suggest a big rookie season, but it's still a big adjustment, and just because that first season doesn't pan out doesn't mean he won't have a tremendous NHL career.
     
  17. 5 Minute Major

    5 Minute Major Registered User

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    Or, check back in 2-3 years when he is brought up in the same sentence as other first overall busts.
     
  18. Whaddagoal

    Whaddagoal It is what it is...

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    Hughes definitely hasn't played as well as I thought he would coming in, but he has all the tools except size right now.

    He has all the fairly elite skills otherwise, though. Soft hands, great skating edges, and slippery with the puck and good acceleration/shifting acceleration that can get him sneaking past defenders. His shot seems pretty good as well, but he hasn't converted as much as one would think.

    I do think he needs to improve his NHL IQ which will occur as he gets more games in, as he sometimes tends to force a lot of plays or not see all the better plays that are available. He's not that stellar at the cycle game, if it comes to that. That is experience disadvantage. Again, I'm throwing out the honest points I see, but I don't see it being something equating to bust or anything like that, but more he needs a bit more seasoning all around.

    I think size/growth is a bigger factor than probably originally anticipated, but it should go away in a season or maybe 2. I was a bit hesitant for that during draft, but that's just my personal opinion.

    The NJD are a mess this season as everyone knows , so how that factors into this, i'm sure it does. Hughes also got some sort of injury earlier in season, but not sure if its really affected his game at all after that.

    I'm not concerned overall, but i can't say that it hasn't been a little bit disappointing.
     
  19. vadim sharifijanov

    vadim sharifijanov ugh

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    i'm sure some version of this accounting has been done long ago in this thread but i want to see how which first overall forwards stepped right into the league and how they fared, relative to hughes—


    hughes: 48 games, 7 goals - 13 assists - 20 pts, on pace for 11 - 20 - 31 in 74 games (assuming he doesn't miss any more games)

    hischier: 82 - 20 - 32 - 52 - 7th in calder voting (32/164 ballots)
    matthews: 82 - 40 - 29 - 69 - won the calder
    mcdavid: 45 - 16 - 32 - 48 - 3rd in calder voting
    mackinnon: 82 - 24 - 39 - 63 - won the calder
    yak: 48 - 17 - 14 - 31 - 5th in calder voting
    RNH: 62 - 18 - 34 - 52 - 2nd in calder voting
    hall: 62 - 22 - 20 - 42 - 9th in calder voting (appeared on only 10/127 ballots)
    tavares: 82 - 24 - 30 - 54 - 5th in calder voting
    stamkos: 79 - 23 - 23 - 46 - 9th in calder voting (16/132 ballots)
    kane - 82 - 21 - 51 - 72 - won the calder
    crosby: 81 - 39 - 63 - 102 - 2nd in calder voting
    nash: 74 - 17 - 22 - 39 - 3rd in calder voting
    kovalchuk: 65 - 29 - 22 - 51 - 2nd in calder voting
    stefan - 72 - 5 - 20 - 25 - no calder votes
    lecavalier: 82 - 13 - 15 - 28 - 14th in calder voting (4/56 ballots)
    thornton: 55 - 3 - 4 - 7 - no calder votes
    daigle: 84 - 20 - 31 - 51 - no calder votes
    nolan: 59 - 3 - 10 - 13 - no calder votes
    turgeon: 76 - 14 - 28 - 42 - no calder votes
    murphy - 5 - 0 - 1 - 1 - no calder votes obviously
    clark - 66 - 34 - 11 - 45 - 2nd in calder voting
    mario - 73 - 43 - 57 - 100 - won the calder
    lawton: 58 - 10 - 21 - 31 - no calder votes
    hawerchuk: 80 - 45 - 58 - 103 - won the calder


    so let's sort those into categories.

    1. came into the league elite—

    matthews: 82 - 40 - 29 - 69 - won the calder
    mcdavid: 45 - 16 - 32 - 48 - 3rd in calder voting
    crosby: 81 - 39 - 63 - 102 - 2nd in calder voting
    mario - 73 - 43 - 57 - 100 - won the calder
    hawerchuk: 80 - 45 - 58 - 103 - won the calder

    2. excellent for a rookie—

    mackinnon: 82 - 24 - 39 - 63 - won the calder
    kane - 82 - 21 - 51 - 72 - won the calder
    kovalchuk: 65 - 29 - 22 - 51 - 2nd in calder voting
    clark - 66 - 34 - 11 - 45 - 2nd in calder voting

    3. very good not great rookie year—

    RNH: 62 - 18 - 34 - 52 - 2nd in calder voting
    nash: 74 - 17 - 22 - 39 - 3rd in calder voting

    4. decent—

    hischier: 82 - 20 - 32 - 52 - 7th in calder voting (32/164 ballots)
    yak: 48 - 17 - 14 - 31 - 5th in calder voting
    hall: 62 - 22 - 20 - 42 - 9th in calder voting (appeared on only 10/127 ballots)
    tavares: 82 - 24 - 30 - 54 - 5th in calder voting
    stamkos: 79 - 23 - 23 - 46 - 9th in calder voting (16/132 ballots)
    daigle: 84 - 20 - 31 - 51 - no calder votes
    turgeon: 76 - 14 - 28 - 42 - no calder votes

    5. probably shouldn't have been in the league yet—

    stefan - 72 - 5 - 20 - 25 - no calder votes
    lecavalier: 82 - 13 - 15 - 28 - 14th in calder voting (4/56 ballots)
    thornton: 55 - 3 - 4 - 7 - no calder votes
    nolan: 59 - 3 - 10 - 13 - no calder votes
    lawton: 58 - 10 - 21 - 31 - no calder votes

    6. didn't really make the NHL—

    murphy - 5 - 0 - 1 - 1 - no calder votes obviously


    so hughes belongs in category five. obviously, he's not getting any calder votes unless someone mistakes him for his brother, and actually i'm willing to bet that he'll probably get at least one or two that way. but if you look at that category, two were busts (stefan and lawton, obviously) and three were all-stars. and if you look at the three who were all-stars, owen nolan scored 40 goals in year two, thornton scored 60 points in year three (in the DPE), and lecavalier scored 67 points in year two (also in the DPE).

    so there really shouldn't be so much cause for alarm, should there? for every lawton and stefan, there are three nolans/thorntons/lecavaliers.
     
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  20. sincerity0

    sincerity0 Registered User

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    hand up from an outsider. I was pretty near convinced they’d be at least competing for a WC.
     
  21. Whaddagoal

    Whaddagoal It is what it is...

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    Nice breakdown/post, good bucketing in my opinion.

    Add Ovechkin anyway for comparison, obviously falls into comes into league Elite.
    815254106
    Some random tidbit: In 2001-02 season, Heatley (2nd overall year before)/Kovalchuk were 1/2 that year in Calder voting. I think if Kovy didn't have some arm injury to miss final segment of season he may have gotten calder over his teammate. I don't know if that would have drastically changed any initial impressions either. I remember at that time, they were both considered excellent. I think your ranking is spot on.

    When Stamkos first came in people were worried as well, I remember being on here and reading the posts about how he's potentially a bust. Took him a couple seasons, but he established himself as one of the premier scorers, at least for some time.

    I'd like to see how Hughes finishes the season anyway before we can measure his first year......
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2020
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  22. vadim sharifijanov

    vadim sharifijanov ugh

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    i remember that too. the day kovalchuk got hurt, he and heatley were 1-2 in rookie scoring by a mile. heatley was one point ahead, but kovalchuk had ten more goals.

    i tend to agree with you that the calder should have gone to a healthy kovalchuk. but i still wonder whether heatley would have won the calder anyway, because at the time there was the perception that heatley was this gritty complete two-way player and kovalchuk was this goal-sucky euro skill winger who was allergic to contact. very similar to toews vs kane five years later.

    hilarious to think about now, given that dany heatley was arguably the laziest, softest superstar in recent memory.
     
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  23. MrThomas

    MrThomas Registered User

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    Hischier had so much better rookie season than Hughes.
     
  24. Jack Flask

    Jack Flask Registered User

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    Youre right the Ahl isnt a place he would develop , its really no easier to play there than the nhl, its a different frenetic pace.
    That said he’s not ready for the Nhl . Will he be? Probably but theres nothing wrong with developing at University.
    One thing is for sure, all the ice he gets isnt helping. Hes just not ready...yet
     
  25. John Eichel da GOAT

    John Eichel da GOAT Registered User

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    I blame the Devils. The fact Quinn looks so good makes me think its not a Hughes problem.
     

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